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Demographic Megatrends in Asia and Eastern Europe – Challenges and Opportunities for Health and Social Protection

November 13 – 14, 2013, Hanoi, Viet Nam

Dr. Thomas Ott OAGIS

IT-Tool DeCiDe Demographic Challenges in Development

Objectives

to visualize demographic scenarios,

to illustrate the interrelationships between demography, development and global challenges,

to derive and prioritize objectives and strategies,

to identify potential fields of cooperation.

Target Audience

(political) decision makers in partner countries

executives and consultants in governmental departments

sectoral experts (in need to add a demographic aspect)

journalists, students and other multipliers

Technical Background and User Interface

Microsoft Excel™ 2007 and higher

150+ Sheets

multilingual (German, English, French, …)

distinct color scheme for ease of orientation

open access to all data allowing easy updates and modifications

Content and Structure

10 demographic challenges with 57 indicators (time series)

14 demographic options and policy fields

spaces for user-defined challenges and options

interactive assessment of challenges and options for mutual development of strategies

6 simulations of future population growth and change

prototype with data for 6 countries from 3 continents (each country with 2 reference countries)

Challenges Options Strategies

CH 1 CH 2 CH 3 CH 4 CH 5 CH 6 CH 7 CH 8 CH 9 CH 10 CH 11

Overview of Challenges

Aggregation and Weighting of Challenges

Introduction

Settings

Looking back

Looking ahead

I Introduction

II Challenges

III Options

IV Strategies

Population Data/Capacities Population Growth Populations Structure Population Distribution

Challenges Poverty

Scarcity of Resources

Health Risks

Climate Change

Ageing and Lack of Social Security

Lack of Prospects for Young People

Susceptibility to Conflicts, Missing Government and Security

Urbanization

Development of Rural Areas and Food Supply

Migration

User Defined Challenges

CH 1 CH 2 CH 3 CH 4 CH 5 CH 6 CH 7 CH 8 CH 9 CH 10 CH 11

Overview of Challenges

Aggregation and Weighting of Challenges

Overview of Options and Policy Fields

OP 1 OP 2 OP 3 OP 4 OP 5 OP 7 OP 6 OP 10 OP 11 OP 14 OP 12 OP 8 OP 9 OP 13 OP 15

Aggregation and Weighting of Options

Introduction

Settings

Looking back

Looking ahead

I Introduction

II Challenges

III Options

IV Strategies

Population Data/Capacities Population Growth Populations Structure Population Distribution

Policy Fields and Options Demographic Capacity Development

Rights and Self-Determination of Women

Security of Resources

Health Care, SRHR and Family Planning

Adaption to Climate Change

Establishing and Strengthening of Social Security Systems

Education

Promoting the Young Generation

Employment Policy and Economic Development

Supporting Generational Ties

Governance and Security

Urban Development and Urban Planning

Rural Development and Decentralization

Organizing Migration

User Defined Challenges

CH 1 CH 2 CH 3 CH 4 CH 5 CH 6 CH 7 CH 8 CH 9 CH 10 CH 11

Overview of Challenges

Aggregation and Weighting of Challenges

Overview of Options and Policy Fields

OP 1 OP 2 OP 3 OP 4 OP 5 OP 7 OP 6 OP 10 OP 11 OP 14 OP 12 OP 8 OP 9 OP 13 OP 15

Aggregation and Weighting of Options

Final Assessment and Simulation Results

Joint Definition of Strategies

Introduction

Settings

Looking back

Looking ahead

I Introduction

II Challenges

III Options

IV Strategies

Population Data/Capacities Population Growth Populations Structure Population Distribution

Final Assessment and Simulation “Traffic Lights”

Projection of demographic key indicators

Interactive Presentation of the Tool