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Demographic Change & Silver economy
10th SEMI May 26th 2016, Brussels
Ilias Iakovidis
DG CONNECT
European Commission
Demographic change in a 'storm of crises'
Societal Challenge Major Opportunity
••• 3
Dependency Ratio
•From 1:4 to 1:2
•80+ doubles by 2025
Cost of Care
•Up by 4-8 % of GDP by 2025
Human Resources
•Shrinking work force•Lacking 20 million carers by 2020
Empowerment
•Active Ageing
New Care Models
•Home based
•Integrated care
•Large Efficiency gains
Growth and Markets
•3000 B€ wealth
•85 Million Consumers -and growing
• Large scale uptake of digital innovation
3
DEMOGRAPHIC SILVERCHANGE ECONOMY
SILVER ECONOMY
SPECIALIST DEBATE
SILVER ECONOMY FROM MAINSTREAM DEBATE
G7 ICT Ministerial April 2016 Japan
SILVER ECONOMY TO POLICY DEBATE
EU Silver Economy Strategy, March 2015
• Economic opportunities in the public and consumer markets
• Global Silver Economy valued at $7 trilion per year, to reach $15 trillion by 2020
• Considered the 3rd largest economy in the world
THE SILVER ECONOMY
http://bit.ly/1yiVfF2
A sizeable EU Silver Economy
• 3000 B€ Wealth by people over 65
• 85 Million Consumers over 65 and growing
• <15% ICT use
The Consumer Market
• Care costs ~1000 B€ /year in Europe (8 % GDP)
• 10% for innovation
~100 B€ /year
The Public Market
8
https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/10/what-are-the-economic-implications-of-ageing-populations/
Representative (public) spending and tax profiles by age
Examples of current sectors
• Health and care services for active and healthy ageing
• Age friendly-smart homes, Age friendly cities
• Senior (off season) tourism
• Age friendly workplaces ( Ageing well at work)
• Social / service robotics
National/regional initiatives (FR, DE, UK, PL,)
http://bit.ly/1yiVfF2
10
THE SILVER ECONOMY
35% of 171 countries have a health technology national policy that is
part of the National Health Program, while 12% have an independent
document
44% of 169 countries have a national list of approved medical devices for procurement or reimbursement and 73% carry out the procurement of medical devices at national level
Health technology refers to the application of organized knowledge and skills in the form of devices, medicines, vaccines, procedures and systems developed to solve a health problem and improve quality of lives.
Definition (WHO) World picture
http://www.who.int/topics/technology_medical/en/
some technological breakthroughs,and industrial successes
NEUROPROBES
PASTA
Technology ApplicationICT project
Smart Probes
Packaging ofElectronic threats
Spin-off: ATLAS Neuroengineering: www.atlasneuro.com/
In Vitro diagnostics portable
solutions
Molecular Biology on Chip/foil
In Vivo extra-cellular neurons
recording
Incubator: Primo1D: www.grain-incubation.com/projets/primo-1d/
Smart Textile with integrated
sensors, LED and RFID
LabonFoil
Spin-off: POC Microsolutions, www.pocmicrosolutions.com
Micro-Nano-Photo-Bio-ICT convergence
European Innovation Partnership (2013-
2016)
13
Innovation
Partnership
TODAY
What
EIP on AHA
Is shaped through
• Individual commitments and
collaborative works clustered in 6
Action Groups
• Reference Sites i.e. coalitions of regions, cities, integrated hospitals or
care organisations aimed at
providing a comprehensive,
innovation-based approach to active and healthy ageing.
Why
Partners joining the EIP on AHA can
• contribute in deploying large-scale,
digitally-enabled innovative solutions
for active & healthy ageing
• share and work together for scaling-up
innovative practices
• deliver creative and workable solutions
improving the lives and health of older
people
How
Regular calls launched by the EC
• Call for commitments
OPEN 4.3.2016
https://ec.europa.eu/eip/ageing
First cut-off date: 15 April
More cut-off dates throughout thisyear.
• Call for Reference Sites
How & When
Call for commitments
• On-line submission through the EIP
on AHA portal
https://ec.europa.eu/eip/ageing
always open
• Cut-off dates for the evaluation of
the submitted commitments shall
be set-out by the EC during the
timeframe 2016-2018
• Coherence with Action Plans
objectives
• > 2 500 organisations (SMEs,
industry, research organisations,
civil society / NGOs, health and
care organisations, public
authorities and government
bodies).
21.82%
18.18%
12.73%10.91%
5.45%5.45%3.64%3.64%3.64%3.64%3.64%
1.82%1.82%1.82%1.82%
Country percentage
74.55%
23.64%
1.82%
SME Large Industry Insurance
company
Type of Business Percentage40.00% 40.00%
7.27% 7.27% 5.45%
Health ICT Social Other Pharma
Sector percentage
Who participates
How
Organisations can
• Submit Individual commitments: on-going or not-yet started task (project,
programme, initiative, paper, scientific article, workshop…) promoted by a
single or several organisations addressing one objective of the Action Plans
• Join a new Collaborative work already identified in the Action Plan or propose
a new one. A Collaborative work is defined as an agreed specific objective
carried out by several individual commitments which are grouped together for
jointly tackling a common challenge
• Contribute to Sprints: short-time period (6 months) prioritised tasks delivered within a Collaborative work
• Participate to a Synergy: thematic working groups which interests are cross-
cutting to one or several Action Groups under the EIP on AHA
How
Commitments, Collaborative works and Synergies results and outcomes are
• reported and monitored through the
on-line Commitment Tracker Tool
• published and automatically
integrated in periodic report
• analysed for producing statistics,
graphs and quantitative indicators of
impact
How
EIP on AHA partner organisations are invited to share their Innovative Practices
• through the on-line Repository
• thus contributing to the European
scaling-up strategy
• for the mobilisation of knowledge and
resources enabling the implementation
of innovative solutions
Integrated care What this means for patients
Hospital
Home Care services/Nur
ses
Primary Care PractitionersAllied Health Professionals
Specialists
Long-Term Care Homes
2222
Community, Social Services, Informal carers
Common principles for
coordinated care plans
so all complex patients
will have the same
experience
Help for patients and
families to navigate the
health system
Listening to and
involving the patients,
families and caregivers
in all stages of the care
process
Integrated care Best Practices
https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/eipaha/library/index/show/id/728
Good practice examples
in Integrated care
(from EIP on AHA
partners)
Connected and Age Friendly Housing
24
•Care shifting to the home
• People prefer to remain at home when ageing
• Technology makes it possible
Drivers
• Policy incentives for investments
• Smart connected homes
• Accessible buildings/homes
• European Common Framework of Reference/Guidelines
Solutions
• Sustainable health and care systems
• Scalable European/Global markets
•New jobs and growth
Opportunities
Age Friendly Housing
25
safety & security
Health/care monitoring
PreventionWellbeing
Social Inclusion
Daily living
safety & security
26
MARKET VALUE Market revenues grew by 60 percent to € 0.77 billion (US$ 1.0 billion) in 2014. The market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 58 percent between 2014 and 2019 to reach € 7.6 billion (US$ 10.2 billion) at the end of the forecast period.
POTENTIAL FOR GROWTHThe number of European households that have adopted smart home systems is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61 percent during the next five years, resulting in 29.7 millionsmart homes by 2019.
http://www.berginsight.com/ReportPDF/Summary/bi-sh3-sum.pdf
Smart Homes
27
A fast growing market
• 2 million homes in Germany needs adaptation ~13.1 B€
28
Is DemographicChange an Opportunityfor Real EstateInvestment?
Increasing Number of
Investors are Looking for Alternatives
Source: PwC Emerging Trends Europe Survey 2016
Is DemographicChange an Opportunityfor Real EstateInvestment?
29Source: PwC Emerging Trends Europe Survey 2015
Retirement Living and
Healthcare "top" the list of "Sector
Investment prospects"
DG Communication Networks, Content and Technology
Use of robotics applications
1
2
3
4
5
6
•Service / Domestic Robots for:
•Domestic tasks
•Entertainment
•Handicap assistance
•Personal transportation
•Home security & surveillance
Professional Service Robots for:
Professional cleaningInspectionMaintenanceConstruction and demolitionLogisticsMedical roboticsDefence, rescue & security appsMobile platforms in general use Robot arms in general use Public relation robotsHumanoids
DG Communication Networks, Content and Technology
Service robotics
1
2
3
4
5
6
Service / Domestic Robots: Robot butler, companion, assistants, humanoidsperform Vacuuming, floor cleaning, lawn moving, pool cleaning, window cleaning
Entertainment robots: Toy/hobby robotsperform Education, cognitive or physical training.
Handicap assistance robotics: Robotized wheelchairs, assistant robots perform navigation, mobility, personal rehabilitation and other assistance functions.
DG Communication Networks, Content and Technology
Service robotics statistics
1
2
3
4
5
6
DG Communication Networks, Content and Technology
Research related to robotics
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ambient intelligence: "electronic environments that are sensitive and responsive to the presence of people deployed mainly through consumer electronics, telecommunications and computing."
Smart environments: "an environment where different kinds of smart devices are continuously working to make inhabitants' lives more comfortable."
DG Communication Networks, Content and Technology
FFuture robotics research
1
2
3
4
5
6
Future robotics research work should stress:
Development of context awareness.
Service integration and interoperability.
Integrating robotics components with smart environments.
Development of service models according to user requirements.
Take into more account ethical, privacy and safety issues.
••• 35
Intelligent robot (Kompaï) to enableindependent living for ageing people, offering:
• Tele-assistance
• Access to services that support independence
TV Report on http://www.euronews.com/2011/02/28/meet-kompai-your-robot-friend/
DOMEO AAL Project
• Robot Hector
• - scans environment and patients body (falls / blood pressure)
• - provides entertainment +
• Memory and cognitive training
• - reminders for tasks (medicine)
• - communication with doctors or family
COMPANIABLE FP7 Project
H2020 SC1 Main research
priorities (2016-2017)
•Infectious Diseases
•InnovFin
•Human
•biomonitoring
•Maternal and child health
•
eHealth
•Active and
•healthy ageing
•Personalised
•medicine
AAL2*: 2014 - 2022
• AAL: €600 million from 22 EU countries + EU funding €150 million
• Scope AAL 2: Market-oriented ICT research in assisted living technologies & services
• New instruments: e.g. prizes or innovation grants
• More EU co-funding: Participating countries pay €225 million (indicative), EU pays up to €175 million (indicative, ~40% of total public funding)
*Ambient assisted living Joint Programme, Art 185, P2P
2 Million € prize in 2016 for the best solution to address ageing challenge
In early 2016 the European Commission will launch a Horizon Prize that rewards the innovator or team who comes up with the best solution to address the challenges and opportunities of ageing and to improve the quality of life of senior citizens.
Their breakthrough will receive €2 million from Horizon 2020. http://europa.eu/!ck76Xw
The other challenges were: Childhood obesity, Citizens for clean energy Integration of immigrants in the labour market Women entrepreneurship and women-led enterprises
Commission R & IProgrammes
• H2020: http://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/portal/desktop/en
• Calls 2016-2017: ttp://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/portal/desktop/en
• Innovation Actions, PPI, PCP, SME Measures, Innovfin, ...
• AAL: http://www.aal-europe.eu/
• IMI: http://www.imi.europa.eu/
• EDCTP: http://www.edctp.org/
• EIT KIC on Healthy living and Active Ageing
• http://eit.europa.eu/eit-community/eit-health
• Joint Programming Initiatives: http://www.neurodegenerationresearch.eu/
https://www.healthydietforhealthylife.eu/
http://www.jp-demographic.eu/
http://www.jpiamr.eu/
http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/en/lab-market-what-happens-after-projects-end
For more information:
https://ec.europa.eu/eip/ageing
https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/policies-ageing-well-ict
@EIP_AHA
Ilias.Iakovidis@ec.europa.eu
••• 43
What isIntegrated care
Integrated Care: is a coherent set of methods and models on the funding, administrative, organisational, service delivery and clinical levels designed to create connectivity, alignment and collaboration within and between the cure and care sectors.
• Kodner & Spreeuwenberg (2002)
The management and delivery of health and care services so that citizens receive a continuum of preventive and curative services, according to their needs over time and across different levels of the health and care system.
Related terms:
Chronic Disease Management, Telehealth, Telecare, eHealth, Patient monitoring, Independent Living, Ambient Assisted Living
What is the Silver economy?
• Money spent by consumers, companies, and governments on products, services and activities as people age
• Employment, personal income, corporate revenue and profit, personal and corporate paid taxes, and other macroeconomic multiplier benefits
• Productivity increases from changes that integrate the physical capabilities and behaviours of workers aged 50+
• Value creation by new 50+ entrepreneurs
• Tangible and intangible benefits of retaining older skilled workers
44
To get Savings Go Where the Money Is
U.S. population, by magnitude of
expenditure, 2009
1%5%
10%
45%
65%
22%
50%
97%
$90,061
$40,682
$26,767
$7,978
Annual Mean
Expenditure
• 10% of patients account for 65% of costs
• Focus efforts on patients with highest
costs
• Three part strategy:
– Primary care/delivery system reform
– Payment reform
– Health information technology
E. Mossialos, LSE
Number of chronicdisorders by age group
Source: Barnett et al. 2012. Lancet 370: 37-43.
Outcome
Indicators
on
intervention
/
commitment
level
Triple Win SustainabilityQuality of LifeInnovation &
Growth
Headline Target
HRQoL
Risk
factors
Falls
Frailty
Cognitive
decline
Functional
status
Adherence
Mental
healthNutrition
Mortality
Physical
Activity
Incremental change
in resources used
(Local) unit cost for
resources
xNr. of
implemented
technologies
Nr. of new
SMEs
Nr. of users
of new
technologies
Nr. of created
jobs
• Hospital (re-) admissions
• Length of hospital stay
• Emergency visits
• Primary care visits
• Specialist visits
• Institutionalisation
Measuring impact of
Digital Innovation
What you do NOT measureyou do NOT get
MAFEIP Monitoring & Assessment
Framework
Region Skane
University Hospital Olomouc
City of Oulu
Coimbra
Southern Denmark
Collage (3)
Saxony
Ile-de-France Pays de la Loire
Lower-Rhine Council Languedoc-Roussillon
Liguria Campania
Friuli Venezia Giulia Emilia-Romagna
Piemonte
Northern NetherlandsTwente
Province of Gelderland and Overjssel
South Holland Province Noord-Brabant:
Slimmer Leven
GaliciaBasque Country
MadridCataloniaValencia
Andalusia
LiverpoolScotland
Northern Ireland Wales
Yorkshire
Reference Sites - coverage
EIP on Active & Healthy Ageing
48
SILVER ECONOMY A growth opportunityfor Governments
40.0
40.5
41.0
41.5
42.0
42.5
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Emp
loym
ent
(mill
ion
)
GD
P (€
trill
ion
)
GDP, increment in alternative trajectory, constant 2010 prices (leftscale)
GDP, current trajectory, constant 2010 prices (left scale)
Employment, alternative trajectory (right scale)
Employment, current trajectory (right scale)
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
33.5
34.0
34.5
35.0
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Emp
loym
ent
(mill
ion
)
GD
P (
£ t
rilli
on
)
GDP, increment in alternative trajectory, constant 2010 prices (left scale)
GDP, current trajectory, constant 2010 prices (left scale)
Employment, alternative trajectory (right scale)
Employment, current trajectory (right scale)
For Germany, the silver economy holds the
potential to
• Boost GDP by €61 billion, an increase of 2.1
percent above the current trajectory.
• Lift employment levels by 1.5 million by
2020.
For the UK, the silver economy holds the
potential to
• Boost GDP by £46 billion, an increase of 2.5
percent above the current trajectory.
• Lift employment levels by 1.3 million by
2020.
Source Accenture Study 2012 49
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
R&D budgetsTotal GBAORD (million 2010 dollars, constant prices and PPP)
2008=100
Canada France Germany Italy Japan
Korea United Kingdom United States OECD
Workforce evolution
52
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