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Digging Deeper: Integrating Multi-Disciplinary Expert Knowledge into Resilient System
Decision-Making
Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory, System Exposure Division Wednesday, September 18, 2018
Jessica Frank1, Kristen Naney2, Liem Tran3, Timothy Barzyk4,Betsy Smith5
1 ORISE Fellow, National Exposure Research Laboratory Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA2 North Carolina A&T State University, Center for Outreach in Alzheimer’s, Aging, & Community Health, Greensboro, NC;
3University of Tennessee, Department of Geography, Knoxville, TN;4 National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA
5 Retired, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA
Outline
❖ Set-up for Live Poll (2 minutes)
❖ Context (10 minutes)
• Background
• Methods
• Brief Introduction to Model
❖ Live Poll (12 minutes)
❖ Discussion / Questions (5 minutes)
Live Poll
www.zeetings.com/CCRC
Goals
➢ Conduct a System Analysis to Inform Resilient Decision-
Making in Port Communities
➢ Use Methodology that is:
✓ Adaptable
✓ Easy to Use
✓ Integrates Stakeholder Perspectives
✓ Not Resource & Time Intensive
➢ Identify Factors within Port Community System that are
Drivers of Resiliency
Methods
Analytic Network Process Accommodates:
✓ System Analysis
✓ Stakeholder Engagement
✓ Adaptability
✓ Qualitative & Quantitative
✓ Relatively Non-Demanding on Time
and Resources
✓ Parameterize and Prioritize Variables
Systems Analysis
A holistic analysis approach that focuses on how parts
of a system are interrelated.
Systems Approach Traditional
Whole Part
Feedback &
InterdependenceLinear
Transdisciplinary Discipline/Sector Silos
Cross-Sector Perspectives Optimize Goals in Isolation
Systems Analysis
Shifting Perspective
Systems Analysis
Shifting Perspective
Image credit: https://www.nwei.org/iceberg/
Analytic Decision Model
Resilient System
Social
MobilityInclusionCapital
Environmental
BuiltNatural
Economic
StabilityEfficiency
RESILIENT DECISION-MAKING
TIM
E &
SPA
CE
Why Port Communities?
System Convergence
Hazardous Materials
Intermodal Transport
Vulnerable Populations
Coastal Vulnerability
Clustering of Industry
Methods
S T A K E H O L D E R SEXPERT
Expert Stakeholder Engagement
Variable Refinement
System Mapping
System Maps Decision Model
Expert Elicitation
Pairwise Rankings
Model
Pairwise ComparisonsNodes: 63Cluster: 97Total: 160
Model Connections
Super Decisions Interface
Pairwise ComparisonsNodes: 63Cluster: 97Total: 160
Cluster Comparisons
Live Poll
www.zeetings.com/CCRC
Select your current affiliation:
A) Government
B) Community Group
C) Academic
D) Commercial/Private
E) Other
Live Poll
Select your current affiliation:
a) Government 65%
b) Community Group 5%
c) Academic 5%
d) Commercial/Private 15%
e) Other 10%
Live Poll Result
Live Poll
Environmental Health is defined as environmental hazards,
quality, and stressor exposure for both natural and built
environments
Rank the variables in the order that the ENVIRONMENTAL
HEALTH cluster has the strongest influence.
1) Disaster Resiliency
2) Energy Use & Production
3) Economic Growth
4) Port Operations
5) Community Wellness
6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)
Live Poll
How confident are you with your rankings?
A) Extremely Confident
B) Very Confident
C) Moderately Confident
D) Slightly Confident
E) Not Confident
Live Poll
Disaster Resiliency is defined as redundant community
infrastructure, buffering ecosystem services, diversified
energy resources, land-use trade-offs.
Rank the variables in the order that DISASTER
RESILIENCY has the strongest influence.
1) Disaster Resiliency
2) Energy Use & Production
3) Economic Growth
4) Port Operations
5) Community Wellness
6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)
Live Poll
How confident are you with your rankings?
A) Extremely Confident
B) Very Confident
C) Moderately Confident
D) Slightly Confident
E) Not Confident
Live Poll
Community Wellness is defined as financial security, as well
as health & safety.
Rank the variables in the order that COMMUNITY
WELLNESS has the strongest influence.
1) Disaster Resiliency
2) Energy Use & Production
3) Economic Growth
4) Port Operations
5) Community Wellness
6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)
Live Poll
How confident are you with your rankings?
A) Extremely Confident
B) Very Confident
C) Moderately Confident
D) Slightly Confident
E) Not Confident
Live Poll
Energy is defined as use & production.
Rank the variables in the order that ENERGY has the
strongest influence.
1) Disaster Resiliency
2) Energy Use & Production
3) Economic Growth
4) Port Operations
5) Community Wellness
6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)
Live Poll
How confident are you with your rankings?
A) Extremely Confident
B) Very Confident
C) Moderately Confident
D) Slightly Confident
E) Not Confident
Live Poll
Economic Growth is defined as Consumer Price Index,
Manufacturing Trade Inventory Sales Ratio, Producer Price
Index, Unemployment.
Rank the variables in the order that ECONOMIC GROWTH
has the strongest influence.
1) Disaster Resiliency
2) Energy Use & Production
3) Economic Growth
4) Port Operations
5) Community Wellness
6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)
Live Poll
How confident are you with your rankings?
A) Extremely Confident
B) Very Confident
C) Moderately Confident
D) Slightly Confident
E) Not Confident
Live Poll
Port Operations are defined as exports and imports,
hazardous materials transport & storage, infrastructure
demands, and waste generation.
Rank the variables in the order that PORT OPERATIONS has
the strongest influence.
1) Disaster Resiliency
2) Energy Use & Production
3) Economic Growth
4) Port Operations
5) Community Wellness
6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)
Live Poll
How confident are you with your rankings?
A) Extremely Confident
B) Very Confident
C) Moderately Confident
D) Slightly Confident
E) Not Confident
Frank.Jessica@epa.gov
Questions & Discussion
Frank.Jessica@epa.gov
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