do not predict “the future” forecast “alternative futures” invent “preferred futures”...
Post on 02-Jan-2016
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How Futures Studies Can Improve Your Life & Work
Creating More Effective Futures-Oriented
Lives and Institutions
Jim Dator
Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies Department of Political Science
University of Hawaii <dator@hawaii.edu>
<www.futures.hawaii.edu>
Futures Studies, Strategic Planning, and Administration
A futures perspective is different from but related to strategic planning
just as strategic planning is different from but related to administration.
But to be effective
the process of forecasting and envisioning
must be done
continuously
and not be a
one-shot activity
3 “COMPONENTS” OF THE FUTURES
1. Continuations Things that have always existed Existed in pasts & present, so in futures
3 “COMPONENTS” OF THE FUTURES
1. Continuations Things that have always existed Existed in pasts & present, so in futures
2. Cycles Not in present, but in past, so in futures OR big in present, not past, not futures
THREE “COMPONENTS” OF THE FUTURES
1. Continuations Things that have always existed Existed in pasts & present, so in futures
2. Cycles Not in present, but in past, so in futures OR big in present, not past, not futures
3. Novelties Never before experienced by humans Not in past or present, will in futures
Three “Components” of the Futures (2)
THE WAY IT USED TO BE
1. Continuations (80%)
2. Cycles (15%)
3. Novelties (5%)
Three “Components” of the Futures (2)
THE WAY IT MAY BE
1. Continuations (5%)
2. Cycles (15%)
3. Novelties (80%)
Three “Components” of the Futures (2)
THE WAY IT MAY BE
1. Continuations (5%)
2. Cycles (15%)
3. Novelties (80%)
If a large part of "the futures" may be novel,
then there are several important implications we need to keep in mind:
1. While a main task of futures studies is to help individuals and institutions
envision and invent preferred futures, we must first understand
what the major continuing, cyclical and novel factors might be,
and how we can use their power and presence to create a world we prefer,
rather than the undesirable conditions that might occur without our envisioning and acting.
While we should strive to avoid "dystopia" --undesirable futures--
we should not irresponsibly envision "utopia"
--impossibly good and thus unobtainable futures.
Our task is to envision and create "eutopia"
--the best possible real world we can imagine given the challenges and opportunities available to us.
In other words,
we need to identify and strive "to surf the tsunamis of change"
rushing towards us from the futures.
ANY USEFUL IDEA ABOUT
THE FUTURES
SHOULD APPEAR TO BE
RIDICULOUS
Dator's "Second Law of the Futures"
Futures studies as an academic and as a consulting activity
is based on the identification and analysis of
images of the futures; theories of social stability and change;
methods of social forecasting and design; continuing trends; and
emerging issues:
Stages of Societal Evolution
Hunting and Gathering Agricultural
Industrial Information
So what's next??
We live in a world today where new technologies are
invented, developed, produced and diffused daily.
Technology is the major agent of change
in our world.
The diffusion of current technologies and
the creation and diffusion of new technologies
changes behaviors which changes beliefs.
One example of how technological change causes
social change:
(while any technology could be used, this is an example of change in
communication technologies).
Changing modes of communication enable
changes in the size and complexity
of organizations and of knowledge.
They allow increased control over space and over time.
Stages of social evolution and changes incommunication technologies
200,000 Pre-speech Homo Sapiens
35, 000 Speech Hunting & Gathering
5,000 Writing Agricultural
400 Printing Industrial
100 Electronics Information
Now ???? ????
Four Generic Alternative Futures
Continued Growth
Collapse
Disciplined Society
Transformational Society
Four Generic Alternative Futures
Continued Growth
Collapse
Disciplined Society
Transformational Society
• Rolf Jensen, The Dream Society: The coming shift from information to imagination.
• Joseph Pine II and James H. Gilmore, The Experience Economy: Work is theatre and every business a stage.
• Daniel H. Pink, “The MFA is the new MBA,” Harvard Business Review.
• Daniel H. Pink, A whole new mind: Moving from the Information Age to the Conceptual Age.
• Virginia Postel, The substance of style: The rise of aesthetic value is remaking commerce, culture, and consciousness.
• Ernest Sternberg, The Economy of Icons: How business manufactures meaning.
There are many harbingers of the Dream Society
Korea, which officially bases
a major portion of its economic growth on the production and distribution of
popular culture (including video games), is one example.
In addition to communication technologies
there are many other technologies
transforming Earth and Humanity.
These technologies--and more-- all contribute to the
possibility of a Dream Society replacing current
Information and Industrial Societies.
End of oilglobal climate change
sea level riseshortages of food and waternew and renewed diseases
continued global population growthand regional depopulation
So what is YOUR preferred future?
If you are not active in working with others in envisioning and creating your preferred future,
then you can be sure you will live in a future
that others have invented and created for themselves on their preferences.
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