dsd-int 2015 - translating science to action - paul davies

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Translating science to action

Haiyan to Hagupit

Paul Davies, Chief Meteorologist

Typhoon Haiyan

© Crown copyright Met Office

WMO Fact Finding Mission : summary and conclusions

Going the extra mile – can science deliver??

“I would rather die with my refrigerator than let it be taken by a storm surge”

STAKEHOLDER MEETING, MANILA 2014

© Crown copyright Met Office

WMO Fact Finding Mission : summary and conclusions

Why did many people stay in their homes and did not move to safety?

Possible reasons:

• Did not know of the danger

• They knew about it but chose to ignore it

• Many people didn’t understand the science such as what is meant by ‘storm surge’ or how far the water would go

• Some people moved to evacuation centres which turned out to be in the inundation area – some died there

Typhoon -> Hazards

Typhoon -> Primary Lightning

Typhoon -> Secondary Storm Surge

Typhoon -> Secondary Storm Surge

Typhoon -> Secondary Flood inundation

Typhoon -> Tertiary Health and increased vulnerability

© Crown copyright Met Office

Typhoon Hagupit:

(1) Observations

(3) Forecast winds, rainfall, temperatures…

Big Data, Big Science

(2) Models

Each day the Met Office processes and stores 106 million observations, completes 20 quadrillion (1015) calculations, archives 10 Tera (1012)

bytes of model data and produces 4 million forecasts per day

Big Data, Big Science Each day the Met Office processes and stores 106 million observations,

completes 20 quadrillion (1015) calculations, archives 10 Tera (1012) bytes of model data and produces 4 million forecasts per day

“…bridging the Valley of Death…through effective

translation and application of science”

The 4.4 km

Typhoon Hagupit

Global (deterministic) 4.4 km downscaler (from determinsitic)

4.4 domain

Typhoon Hagupit: Ensembles

TWO scenarios

1. Landfall not until Tuesday or later. Main hazards: Heavy rainfall, severe inland flooding and landslides. Probability 70%

2. Landfall later Saturday or early Sunday. Main Hazards: wind and storm surge. Probability 30%.

Coping with Hurricanes/Typhoons

Weather and climate extremes

Weather analyses & forecast data

Hurricane track, size, & intensity

Implementation of evacuation &

recovery plans

Reducing risk & response scenarios

Mitigation strategies

Affected population & infrastructure,

disruption of services, damages due to wind

& water, etc.

Impact Estimation

Placing into situational context

Storm surge, flooding, inundated areas

Weather Translation to

hazards

Extraction of relevant information

to predict hazards

Holistic approach to impact and risk

GEO-PHYSICAL HAZARD

EXPOSURE

VULNERABILITY

Socio-Economic IMPACT

QUANTIFYING

& REDUCING RISK

WEATHER & CLIMATE

EXTREMES

Major Uncertainty

Some progress, still a limiting factor

Considerable progress

Advice on impacts