earthquakes: what’s shaking? · east-west: from 50 mi. offshore to under coastline ywang, dogami,...

Wood vs. Unreinforced Masonry (URM)Shaking Response Differences Shown in Lab

Earthquakes: What’s Shaking?

June 14, 2016 WRECA

Yumei Wang, Geohazards Engineer, PE, Oregon Dept of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI)

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rG7xmaRIL14&index=3&list=PLIGhF55C7-lN_QsABHlIyvy9gHeR2gbpsSource: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ru0J1x5zrL4&list=PLB9CE291F48C9207C&index=5

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Outline

Pacific Ring of Fire

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Source: http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/magazine/dart_buoys/ring_of_fire.html

1980 Mt St Helens Eruption

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

In 1980, volcanoeswere a known hazard,but geologists did notunderstand theearthquake potentialof the Cascadia Fault

>Magnitude 2 Earthquakes in WA and OR

Image Source: Created on PNSN webpageData Source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/washington/history.php YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Pacific NW is earthquake county

Washington Earthquakes• 1949 Olympia M6.8• 1965 Olympia M6.8• 2001 Nisqually M6.8(Tim Walsh, pers comm. 6/6/16)

Epicenter colors represents depths

Eastern WA Historical Seismicity 1872-1968

Permission from Steve Malone YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

• Local faults can produceinfrequent but damagingearthquakes, similar to the1936 Milton Freewater (MF)earthquake

•MF earthquake was aboutM6.1 and caused minordamage in both OR and WA

• Maximum magnitudeearthquake in this regionabout M7.5

Permission from Ivan Wong

1872 N. Cascades Earthquake ~M6.5-7

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Ribbon Cliff(between Entiatand Winesap)

1872 Landslide Blocked Columbia River

Source: Madole et al, 1995

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Active Faults on Wallula Fault Zone (WFZ)

Source: Sherrod B. et al, in press.

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

•WFZ (several faults)

•USGS scientists’ recent WFZresearch using lidar, paleo-seismology and magneticsurveys

• Found active faults andevidence of 4 earthquakes inpast 30,000 yrs near Finleyquarry, WA (star on map)

Cascadia Fault Threat Realized in 1980s

Source: Dogami

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Vertical Slice through Subduction Zone

Source: http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1187/

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Between Earthquakes

Coast goes up

Seafloor goes down

Source: http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1187/

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Coast goes downSeafloor goes up

During an Earthquake

Source: http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1187/

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1187/

Tsunami Arrives Minutes After Earthquake

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Credit: Kathleen Cantner, American Geological Institute

Undersea Landslides: Turbidites

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

AR4

Slide 15

AR4 Permission to use?Alison Ryan, 7/7/2015

Turbidites Caused by Cascadia Earthquakes(Photo: Chris Goldfinger, 2010)

Turbidite Sand

Deep Sea Clay

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

“Ghost Forest” at Copalis River, WA

Permission: Brian Atwater;Source: http://records.viu.ca/~earles/1700quake/1700p11.htm

•Trees died becausethe coastal land sankduring the 1700Cascadia earthquake

•The salt water in theintertidal zone killedthem

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Source: http://records.viu.ca/~earles/1700quake/1700p10.htm

“Ghost Forest”

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

1700 Tsunami Sand Over Buried Soil & Fire PitsSalmon River, Oregon (Lincoln City, Oregon)

Source: http://records.viu.ca/~earles/1700quake/1700p12.htm

Soil from forest(topsoil) occupiedby nativeAmericans (fire pit)was struck by atsunami (tsunamisand) and broughtdown to intertidallevel (tidal mud) bythe 1700 Cascadiaearthquake

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

When, Where, How Big?

• Many quakes in 10,000 yr geologic record

• Last quake: Jan 26, 1700 (316 yrs ago)

(Research by Goldfinger et al, 2012;Source: DOGAMI)

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Where?North-South: Maximum from N. CA to BC

East-West: from 50 mi. offshore to under coastline

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

How Big?Could be magnitude 8, or magnitude 9.2

Mw~9500yrs

Mw8.5-8.8430 yrs

Mw7.6-8.4240 yrs

(Source: Goldfinger et al. 2012)

Mw8.3-8.5320 yrs

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Western U.S. MapProbabilistic Expected Earthquake Ground Shaking

Source: US Geological Survey

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Olympia

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

Time (seconds)

0 50 100 150

Acc

eler

atio

n(g

)

Chile M8.8

Northridge M6.7

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

Shaking Duration: Chile vs Northridge

Source: D. Baska, Terracon

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Cascadia: Double Whammy!Tsunami: arrives ~20 min. Waves & surges for hrsPhoto of coastal Japan in 2011 earthquake/tsunami

EFFECTS Ground shaking

Tsunami (coast)

Coast Subsidence

Liquefaction

Lateral spreading

Landslides

Ground Settlement

Seiches

Fires

Hazmat spills

Infrastructure damage

Black out, Fuel shortage

(Source: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Alexander Tidd/Released)

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Cascadia Fault: Strong Shaking& Extensive Damage in Western OR & WA

• Extreme Damage by Tsunami• Major Damage in Coastal Areas• Significant Damage in Valley• Light or No Damage in Central

and Eastern WA and OR

WA

OR

CA

Source: DHS 2011 AnalyticalBaseline Study YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

•

IMPACTS: Deaths, Dollars & Downtime

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016Base Map: Google Earth

Source for upper photo and data: DOGAMI OFR O-07-2

Oregon Estimates>$30 Billion directdamage(20% OR GDP)

Deaths, Dollars & DowntimeJapan’s Damage~$300 Billion (US)~6% GDP

Nepal’s Damage~$10 Billion (US)~50% GDP

• > 35,000 Buildings Destroyed

• > 250,000 Buildings Damaged

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Sources: USGS PAGER direct damage for Japan and Nepal;DOGAMI Special paper 29;

DOGAMI IMS 24 (values have been extrapoloated );2013 OSSPAC Oregon Resilence Plan

and percentage GDP calculations by Yumei Wang

Deaths, Dollars & Downtime

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Photos: Y Wang

Examples ofDamage

Source: ASCE TCLEE members

Permission fromLes Youd

Source: YWang

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Oregon’s Critical Energy InfrastructureHub Located in Portland

Intersection of:

Petroleum

Natural Gas

Electric

Liquefaction Risk

Fuel from WArefineries. Some crudeoil is transported to WAvia Oregon.(Info from 2013 DOGAMI Energy Sector Report)

Base Map: Google Earth

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Nisqually Earthquake Clearing House, http://maximus.ce.washington.edu/~nisqually/

Liquefaction and Lateral Spreading

e.g. Nisqually EQ 2001, Sunset Lake AreaOlympia, WA

Source: US Geological Survey

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Liquefaction HazardsEnergy Facilities Built on Hydraulic Fill

1905 expo

Sources of 3 photos: Oregon Historical Society

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Fuel Oil Terminals in PortlandMany facilities built before seismic design codes & vulnerable

June 2011, Yumei Wang, DOGAMI

Source of 3 photos: Y. Wang

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Transportation:VulnerableBridges

Source of 3 photos: Y. WangInfo: DOGAMI O-13-9

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

1989 CA

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/3dgeologic/

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Electrical Systems• Electricity

• Most electrical networks were not

built to withstand earthquakes

• Electrical systems have significant

seismic risk due to ground shaking &

ground failure

• Seismically vulnerable facilities include substations,switch stations, transmission lines, power plants,and key distribution substations

• Cascadia Earthquake damage will likely result inblackout of the Western Grid

• BPA seismic vulnerability study & mitigation program

Source: 2013Oregon Resilience Plan(ORP) ENERGY TASKGROUP

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Transmission Tower MitigationBPA estimates

up to 25 Ftmovement

towards river.Mitigate in 2016.

Source: Yumei WangYWang, DOGAMI, 2016Photos Source: Yumei Wang

Portland W. Longview, WA

CDRM

Towers with Ground MovementHazard >1m

Chile’s Damage

Source: DOGAMI, Madin

Source: ASCE TCLEE members

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Source: ASCE TCLEE members

Community Interdependencies

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

To restorewater service,you needelectricity

To restore electricservice, you needto reopen roads

To reopen roads,you need torestore fuelsupplies

To restore fuelsupplies you needelectricity

Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies

Source: ASCE TCLEE members Source: ASCE TCLEE members

Source: ASCE TCLEE members

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

AR18

Slide 41

AR18 Photo sources and permission?Alison Ryan, 7/7/2015

Interdependencies: Highways & Telco

Source: DHS FEMA 2011

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

CDRM

Resilience TriangleReduce Losses, Speed Recovery, & Rebuild Better

Source: Yumei Wang

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

State of Washington Contacts:Tim Walsh, WA Dept of Natural Resources, Assistant State GeologistMaximilian Dixon, WA Emergency Management, Earthquake Program Manager

BUILDING RESILIENCE

Personal & Family Earthquake Safety

Earthquakes: DROP, COVER & HOLD ON

Tsunamis: MOVE INLAND & UPHILL

Information for:

Family, home, workplace, school

Personal and Community Preparedness

7 Steps to Earthquake Resilient Business

1. Identify Potential Hazards2. Create a Disaster Plan3. Prepare Disaster Supplies Kit4. Identify your building’s potential

weaknesses & begin to fix them5. Protect yourself & employees

during earthquake shaking –Drop Cover & Hold On

6. After the earthquake, check forinjuries & damage

7. When safe, continue to followyour disaster plan

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

BUILDING RESILIENCESelected WA State Planning Activities

• 2000 Magnitude 9 Scientific Consensus

• Earthquake Hazard Maps

www.dnr.wa.gov/programs-and-services/geology/geologic-hazards/earthquakes-and-faults

• WA Geology Portal with 20 earthquake scenarioshttp://www.dnr.wa.gov/geologyportal

http://mil.wa.gov/washington-state-military-department

BUILDING RESILIENCE2012ResilientWashingtonStateReportSource:http://mil.wa.gov/uploads/pdf/seismic-safety-committee/RWS%20final%20report.pdf

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016Source: DOGAMI O-13-09

BUILDING RESILIENCEEarthquake Resistant Control Buildings

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016Source: DOGAMI O-13-09

BUILDING RESILIENCEEarthquake Resistant Emergency Equipment

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016Source: DOGAMI O-13-09

BUILDING RESILIENCEEarthquake Resistant Transformers

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016Source: DOGAMI O-13-09

BUILDING RESILIENCEEarthquake Resistant Transformers

BUILDING RESILIENCE

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

BUILDING RESILIENCE

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

BUILDING RESILIENCE

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016

Myths & Questions?Will the earthquake not happen?

Will my dog warn me?

Can I surf the tsunami?

Will Seattle be spared?

(All answers are NO!)

Source: NOAA

Source: Public Domain

YWang, DOGAMI, 2016