economic outlook: shifting to a higher gear?
Post on 25-Feb-2016
48 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
1
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: SHIFTING TO A HIGHER GEAR?
Dr. Mike Walden
Reynolds Distinguished Professor
North Carolina State University
AGGREGATE PRODUCTION HAS TOTALLY RECOVERED
2007, IV 2009, II 2013, III13.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
16Real GDP, 2009 trillions $
2
THE JOB MARKET IS ALSO COMING BACK
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2010 Nov. 2013124126128130132134136138140
MILLIONS, NON-FARM, SEAS.-ADJ.
3
BUT JOB MARKET ISSUES LINGER
DROP IN LABOR FORCE
LONG TERM UNEMPLOYED
IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY
4
MANUFACTURING HAS BEEN A BIG PLUS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20137580859095
100105
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
5
….. AS HAVE EXPORTS billions of real 2009 $
6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
ExportsTrd Deficit
CONSUMERS ARE SPENDING MORE (INFLATION-ADJUSTED PERCENTAGE CHANGES)
7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
spendingincome%
HOUSEHOLD FINANCES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
8
2007 II 2008 II 2009 II 2010 II 2011 II 2012 II 2013 II05
1015202530354045505560657075808590
Tot. AssetsFin. AssetsReal EstateLiabilities$
trilli
ons
HOME PRICES ARE NOW RISING
9
HOME INVENTORIES ARE LOW (MONTHS TO SELL EXISTING INVENTORY)
3,07
8,07
1,08
6,0811
,08 4,09
9,09
2,20
7,1012
,10 5,1110
,11 3,1210
,12 3,13
8,13
456789
10111213
10
TOTAL INFLATION HAS BEEN TAME (CPI, total, annual % chg.)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
%
11
LONG INTEREST RATES HAVE TAKEN A JUMP (YIELDS ON TREASURY SECURITIES)
2,087,0
812
,085,0910
,093,108,1
01,1
16,1
111
,116,121,1
312
,130
0.51
1.52
2.53
3.54
4.5
3 mon.10 yr.%
12
NATIONAL FORECASTS
225,000 – 250,000 JOBS CREATED PER MONTH
2.5% TO 2.75% GDP GROWTH RT
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BETWEEN6.0% AND 6.5% BY YEAR’S END
13
GOVERNMENT POLICY
14
THE FED CONTINUES TO BE ACCOMMODATIVE
2007
, I
2007
, III
2008
, I
2008
, III
2009
, I
2009
, III
2010
, I
2010
,III
2011
, I
2011
, III
2012
, I
2012
, III
2013
, I
2013
, III
0500
10001500200025003000
0123456
M base fed fd rt
$ bils. %
15
THE NEW FED CHAIRWOMAN- DR. JANET YELLEN
16
FISCAL POLICY HAS “TIGHTENED” (% of GDP)
17
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-10
-5
0
5
10
15
ReceiptsSpending%
THE CONTINUING FISCAL DEBATE
DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURES ON
SPENDING
TRANSFERS TAKING THE PLACE OF INVESTMENTS
COMPLEX TAX CODE
LONG-RUN FISCAL PLAN NEEDED
18
NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMY
19
N.C. IS OUT-PERFORMING THE NATION
(% CHANGE IN SEAS. ADJ. NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT)
2001-03 2003-08 2008-10 2010-13-10
-5
0
5
10
15
NCUS%
20
TWO MONTHLY JOB SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY
FEDERAL GOV’T FEDERAL GOV’T CONTACTS HH’S CONTACTS FIRMS SMALL SAMPLE LARGER SAMPLE EMPLOYED OR NOT COUNTS JOBS
HOUSEHOLD IN STATE JOB IN STATE
INFO ABOUT JOB SEARCH WAGES, HRS, INDUSTRY
21
ESTIMATED NORTH CAROLINA EMPLOYMENT HOUSEHOLD AND ESTABLISHMENT SURVEYS, SEASONALLY-ADJUSTED
1,10
3,10
5,10
7,10
9,1011
,10 1,11
3,11
5,11
7,11
9,1111
,11 1,12
3,12
5,12
7,12
9,1211
,12 1,13
3,13
5,13
7,13
9,1311
,133500000
3600000
3700000
3800000
3900000
4000000
4100000
4200000
4300000
4400000
HH Estab.
22
TRENDS IN NATIONAL AND NORTH CAROLINA “HEADLINE” UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
23
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20133
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
NC US
%
ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2007: HEADLINE, 4.5%; U5, 5.6%; U6, 8.5%
4,09-3,10
2,10-1,11
3,10-2,11
4,10-3,11
2,11-1,12
3,11-2,12
4,11-3,12
2,12-1,13
3,12-2,13
4,12-3,13
89
101112131415161718
headline U5 U6
%
24
JOB GROWTH HAS ACCELERATED (ANNUAL GAINS IN PAYROLL JOBS)
252010 2011 2012 2013
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
INFORMATION, GENERAL BUSINESS, AND ENTERTAINMENT LEAD IN GROWTH
26
Leisure/Hosp.
Other Serv.
Trd/Tranp/Util
Educ/Hlth Care
Construction
Gov't
Manufacturing
Prof/Bus Serv
Information
Financial Serv
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
USNC
%
MEDIAN ANNUAL EARNINGS PER WORKER (2012 $)
27
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201225000
26000
27000
28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
US NC
NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NATION ARE LOSING MIDDLE-PAYING JOBS
28
$0-35,000 $35-75,000 $75,000 +20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
NC 2007 NC 2012
% o
f tot
al
THE HOUSING MARKET HAS REBOUNDED IN THE STATE
29
2004
,I
2004
, III
2005
, I
2005
, III
2006
, I
2006
, III
2007
, I
2007
, III
2008
, I
2008
, III
2009
, I
2009
, III
2010
, I
2010
, III
2011
, I
2011
, III
2012
, I
2012
, III
2013
, I
2013
, III
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10%
30
STATE TAX REVENUES HAVE BEEN TRENDING HIGHER
31
2008
, 120
08, 3
2008
, 520
08, 7
2008
, 920
08, 1
120
09, 1
2009
, 320
09, 5
2009
, 720
09, 9
2009
, 11
2010
, 120
10, 3
2010
, 520
10,7
2010
,920
10,1
120
11,1
2011
,320
11,5
2011
,720
11,9
2011
,11
2012
,120
12,3
2012
,520
12,7
2012
,920
12,1
120
13,1
2013
,320
13,5
2013
,720
13,9
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130%
Area NC Job Gains Since Bottom of Recession
Charlotte 11.7% Raleigh/Cary 9.7%
Durham/CH 7.5% North Carolina 6.7% Asheville 6.6% Greenville 6.3% Burlington 6.1% Wilmington 5.3% Greensboro/HP 4.2% Winston-Salem 3.6% Jacksonville 3.6% Hickory 2.2% Fayetteville 1.9% Goldsboro 1.9%
Rocky Mount -2.6%
32
33
2007
feb
2007
may
2007
aug
2007
nov
2008
feb
2008
may
2008
aug
2008
nov
2009
feb
2009
may
2009
aug
2009
nov
2010
feb
2010
may
2010
aug
2010
nov
2011
feb
2011
may
2011
aug
2011
nov
2012
feb
2012
may
2012
aug
2012
nov
2013
feb
2013
may
2013
aug
2013
nov
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
NCSU INDEX OF NORTH CAROLINA LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Source: calculations by Dr. Michael Walden
NORTH CAROLINA GROWTH PROSPECTS
100,000 NET NEW PAYROLL JOBS
JOBLESS RATE AT END OF 2014 BETWEEN 6.5% & 7.0%
70% OF JOB CREATION IN CHARLOTTE, TRIANGLE, & TRIAD
COMPETITIVE COSTS, AMENITIES, DYNAMICS OF URBAN AREAS
34
NORTH CAROLINA CHALLENGES
EDUCATION ATTAINMENT
$ FOR ROADS – WHERE?
MANFACTURING SHIFT FROM LABOR TO CAPITAL
URBAN – RURAL DIVIDE
35
RALEIGH-CARY METRO ECONOMY
36
RALEIGH/CARY JOBS HAVE RETURNED (thousands of payroll jobs)
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2010 Oct. 2013460
470
480
490
500
510
520
530
540
Metro-area jobs are now at an all-time high
37
ANNUAL RALEIGH/CARY JOB GROWTH
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
STILL BELOW HIGHS OF 2000’s
38
AREA HOUSEHOLD INCOME IS COMING BACK (2012 REAL $)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201235000
35500
36000
36500
37000
37500
38000$
RALEIGH/CARY MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME HAS RISEN FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS
39
RALEIGH/CARY AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE (ANNUALIZED PRICE CHANGE, FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY)
2006
,120
06,3
2007
,120
07,3
2008
,120
08,3
2009
,120
09,3
2010
,120
10,3
2011
,120
11,3
2012
,120
12,3
2013
,120
13,3
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8%
40
TRIANGLE HOME SALES (EXISTING AND NEW, 2013 THROUGH OCTOBER)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
41
RALEIGH/CARY BUILDING PERMITS (2013 THROUGH OCTOBER
42
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
RALEIGH/CARY OUTLOOK
FASTER GROWTH IN 2014
* 15,000 TO 20,000 NEW PAYROLL JOBS * 5.2% JOBLESS RATE
* IMPROVED SALES AND CONSTRUCTION
43
top related