elena telegina
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Elena Telegina
Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy SecurityCorresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences
Dean, International Energy Business DepartmentDoctor of Economics, Professor
Russian University of Oil and Gas
Baltic Forum, May 2012
Energy Markets: New Challenges
Huge gas reserves targeting Europe, tcm, 2010
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, ENGIN
Gas Supply to EU, 2010, Bcm
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, ENGIN
Largest Oil and Gas Producers and Importers, 2010
Producers Bcm % world total
USA 611,0 19,3
Russia 588,9 18,4
Canada 159,8 5,0
Iran 131,2 4,4
Qatar 116,4 3,3
World Total 3193,0 100
Net importers Bcm
Japan 93,4
Germany 92,8
Italy 75,3
France 48,8
Turkey 36,6
World Total 975,2
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, ENGIN
Oil
Gas
Producers Mln t % world total
Russia 505,1 12,9
Saudi Arabia 467,8 12,0
USA 339,1 8,7
Iran 203,0 5,2
China 203,0 5, 2
World Total 3913,7 100
Net importers Mln t
EU 596,8
USA 577,1
China 294,5
Japan 225,7
India 178,5
World Total 2633,5
US: Hi-Supply Asia: Hi-Demand EU: Oversupply
- Competitive Pricing- Indexation and Hubs- Indexation ENGIN
EU Priority Corridors For Electricity, Gas and Oil
TURKEY: Not Only a Transit Corridor But Also an Energy Hub
South Stream
US Energy Administration
157
Russian Gas Production, Bcm, 1997-2011 GAZPROM Independent Companies
Export Domestic Market
337 338 341
273331 341 359 352
324294 284 286
241289 286
197 198 197
194
181 186189 201
231263 265 264
221
218 227
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
мл
рд
.куб
.м
Внутренний рынок Экспорт
9
28
47
6169 73
77
91 94 95
106115
121
142
157
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
мл
рд
.куб
.м
277286
ENGIN, companies
2011
Russian Gas Production, Bcm
Gazprom, ENGIN
Russian Oil&Gas Shelf Production
Category Shelf IRR, % Royalty,%1 Baltic and Azov Seas 16,5 302 Black Sea Shallow shelf 18,5 153 South of Barents and Okhotsk
Seas20,5 10
4 North of Barents and Okhotsk Seas and Eastern Arctic
22 5
* Continental shelf, Caspian Sea 16-22 5
Planned Fiscal Regime for Shelf Projects
Russian Minenergo, Russian Government, ENGIN
Indicative costs for potential gas sources to Europe, 2020
IEA,ENGIN
1. Algeria piped gas2. Qatar LNG3. Algeria LNG4. Nigeria LNG5. Yamal piped gas6. Russia LNG7. US shale (base case)8. Germany shale onshore (base case)9. Poland shale (worst case)10. Germany shale onshore (worst case)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Top Three Countries by Economic Dominance(% share of global economic power*)
*Weighted by share of world GDP, trade and net capital exports by A.Subramanian
1870 1973 2010 2030 forecast
www.desertec.org
World Energy Supply by Source, 2010
Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010
Thank you!
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