energy challenges dr. robert mackay. outline natural and anthropogenic climate forcing

Energy Challenges

Dr. Robert MacKay

Outline

Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Forcing

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Vostok Ice Core data

http://www.atmosedu.com/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxideCLEANStudent.htm

http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htm

Because of long time delays for the carbon cycle, drastically different scenarios yield very similar results for a 20 year time horizon, but drastically different result for a 50 to 100 year time horizon.

http://www.atmosedu.com/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxideCLEANStudent.htm

Turning off all emissions (very unrealistic) will still leave atmospheric CO2Levels at 350 ppm in the year 2110.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10507-carbon-emissions-rising-faster-than-ever.html

Global per capita emission have held steady for past 30 to 40 years. For the past 30 to 35 years emissions have been closely linked to population.

• Global carbon emissions steady for first time since 1992 Drop in rich countries' emissions caused by recession in 2009 was nullified by steep increases from China and India

• http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jul/01/emissions-recession

• http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html • http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/emissions.html

495 x1015 BTU x 1054 Joule/BTU=5.11x1020 J = 511 ExoJoules

Average Power consumption in Watts = Yearly used/ (# of seconds in Year)

Average 2007 Power Consumption =5.11x1020 J/3.15 x107 s=16 TerraWatts

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

How much non-Fossil Fuel energy must be created in the next 25 years?

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

US Carbon emissions through 2008

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

China’s carbon emission through 2008

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

India’s carbon emission through 2004

2008 emission comparison per country

Us, China and India account for 48 % of world wide emissions

2008 emission comparison per country

Top 10 countries account for 67% of global emissions. However all other countries contribute significantly

World Population

http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

UNEP mid level projections

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html

Fossil Fuel ReservesOil

http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

Fossil Fuel ReservesNatural Gas

http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

Fossil Fuel Reservescoal

http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

Fossil Fuel Reserves

~40 yrs Oil

~80 yrs Natural gas

~200 years coal

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_Energy_consumption.png (BP)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption

In 2005 85% of all energy worldwide came from fossil fuels

Wind energy generation is growing at about 30% per year

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption

From “The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity” Science Vol 335, 6 January 2012.

From “The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity” Science Vol 335, 6 January 2012.

Artificial leaves CCS (Carbon capture and storage)

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/big-idea/13/carbon-capture-pg2

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2011/08/110811-quest-to-capture-carbon-dioxide/

Artificial Leaves

• http://www.sciencefriday.com/blog/2011/05/faux-tosynthesis-clean-energy-of-tomorrow/

http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab/research/grandchallenges/artificialleaf