enterprise risk management: hollow tree or giant redwood? midwestern actuarial forum chicago march...

Enterprise Risk Management:Hollow Tree or Giant Redwood?

Midwestern Actuarial Forum

Chicago

March 7, 2008

Rick Gorvett, FCAS, MAAA, ARM, FRM, PhDDirector, Actuarial Science Program

State Farm Companies Foundation Scholar in Act. Sci.University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

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Regarding the title of this talk

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Agenda

• ERM in general

• Observations from the CAS ERM Online Course

• Issues in advancing ERM– ERM as complex systems analysis

– ERM as an evolutionary process

– ERM as subject to behavioral patterns

• Conclusion

“Who am I? Why am I here?”- Admiral Stockdale, 1992

• Currently– Director, Actuarial Science Program– State Farm Companies Foundation Scholar in Actuarial

Science– Professor, Depts. of Mathematics, Statistics & Finance– University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

• Prior– Senior Vice President– Director of Internal Audit & Risk Management

• Internal Audit• Corporate Investigations• Risk Management• Enterprise Risk Management• Business Continuity

ERM – General Thoughts

Steps in theRisk Management Process

• Determine the corporation’s objectives

• Identify the risk exposures

• Quantify the exposures

• Assess the impact

• Examine alternative risk management tools

• Select appropriate risk management approach

• Implement and monitor program

Impact of Financial Risk Managementon Cash Flow Volatility

Cash Flow

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Pre-FRM

Post-FRM

An Initial ERM Comment

• You don’t become a famous writer by…– Reading a book– Reading about other authors– Watching someone else write

• Similarly, you don’t become an “Enterprise Risk Manager” by…– Reading a book– Taking a course– Listening to a presentation

Rather, ERM is…

A complex process…

… involving broad-based and in-depth knowledge and understanding…

… requiring an appropriate corporate culture,…

… and creativity…

… born of a variety of experiences…

… and insatiable curiosity.

Enterprise Risk Management

• Or “Enterprise Risk and Assurance Management” or…

• What is ERM?– Concerned with a broad financial and operating

perspective– Recognizes interdependencies among corporate,

financial, and environmental factors– Strives to determine and implement an optimal

strategy to achieve the primary objective: maximize the value of the firm

Other Possible Goals of ERM

• Create and increase company value

• Ensure business continuity

• Stabilize earnings

• Enhance opportunities for the company to

achieve its objectives

• Make risk management more cost-efficient

Evolution of ERM

• Historically: “risk silo” mentality• Mid-1990s:

– First “Chief Risk Officer”– First use of ERM terminology

• Late-1990s:– Risk-related regulatory requirements (e.g., Turnbull)– Earnings protection insurance debuts

• 2001:– September 11– Corporate scandals– Beginning of efforts to improve corporate governance

Current State

• Findings from various surveys– An acknowledged need to improve risk

management– A recognition that a holistic approach is

appropriate and preferable– ERM can improve overall capital management

and thus enhance corporate value and competitiveness

– A variety of approaches to improving risk management

– There are still problems to overcome

A Paradigm Shift

Traditional• Risks managed in silos• Concentrates on

physical hazards and financial risks

• Insurance orientation• Ad hoc / one-off

projects

Emerging• Centralized mgt., with

exec-level coordination• Integrated consideration

of all risks, firm-wide• Opportunities for

hedging, diversification• Continuous and

embedded

Types of Risks

• Operational– Hazard

– Physical

• Strategic– Capital / resource allocation

– Industry / competitors

• Technological– Databases

– Security

– Confidential information

• Stakeholder

• Legal– Compliance

– Regulatory

• Financial– Capital markets

– Credit risks

– Taxes

• Human capital– Retention

– Training

• Reputational

Issues in ERM Implementation

• Different corporate cultures require different ERM approaches

• Who is going to be the ERM champion within the company– Among senior executives

– Among departments / functions

• How to embed a risk management culture and responsibilities throughout the firm

Components of the ERM Process

• Determine corporate objectives

• Risk identification– Goal: comprehensiveness

– E.g., self-assessment

• Risk measurement– Volatility measures

– Value at Risk (VaR)

Impact

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Components of ERM (cont.)

• Assessing the impact– Stress or scenario testing

– Stochastic simulation

• Examine and select alternative risk management tools and techniques– Traditional risk transfer

– Natural hedging / diversification

– Integration of risks

E.g.,“dynamicfinancialanalysis”

Keys to Success in ERM

• Senior management commitment and sponsorship

• Embed a “risk management culture” in the corporation at the operational level

• Provide for accountability, both specific and widespread

• Clearly defined responsibilities for coordination and maintenance

• Adequate communication

ERM Tries to Avoid…

“A failure of imagination.”

- Frank Borman, in testimony to Congress,

responding to a question regarding the real

cause of the Apollo 1 fire and the resulting

three astronaut deaths, as dramatized in

HBO’s series From the Earth to the Moon

Observations from the CASERM Online Course

CAS Online Courses

• Originally, four modules in a Financial Risk Management series

• Newest course: “Intro to ERM”– First offering: October 2006– Fourth offering: January 2008

• Course components:– 12 lectures (PPT with voiceovers)– Readings, and case studies– Discussion forum– “Final exam”

Titles of Lectures

1) Introduction to ERM

2) ERM in Context

3) ERM in Practice

4) ERM Framework

5) Hazard Risk

6) Financial Risk

7) Operational Risk

8) Strategic Risk

9) Risk Metrics

10) Application of ERM

11) COSO Pros and Cons

12) Conclusion

Some Preliminary Observations

Significant But Most Difficult Risk to Quantify • Reputational risk

– Quantification suggestions – e.g., “event study”

• Human capital

• Operational risk

• Strategic risk

Some Preliminary Observations (cont.)

Status of ERM at Company • Many companies have moved in the

direction of ERM• Some are well along

– CROs, risk committees

• Some have a long way to go– Still some silo mentality– Focus on more immediate issues (e.g., SOX)– Question ERM’s staying power

Some Preliminary Observations (cont.)

Risk Measures – Alternatives to VaR • Economic capital

• Measures relating risk and return (e.g., RAROC)

• Probability of ruin

• A few thought VaR and TVaR are reasonable and serviceable

Some Preliminary Observations (cont.)

Greatest Risks Faced • Hazard risks (particularly catastrophe and

terrorism risks)

• Reputational risks

• Operational risks

• Pricing – reserving risks

• Financial risks

• Strategic risks

Issues in Advancing ERM

(1) Complex Adaptive System

• A system of individual “agents” which interact and adapt / evolve to changing conditions

• Characteristics– Not reducible– Self-organized emergence, exhibiting nonlinearities– Bottom-up rather than top-down

• Some examples– Economies– Ecologies– Consciousness– Organizations

Complex Social Systems

“One must study the laws of human action and social cooperation as the physicist studies the laws of nature.”

- Human Action, Ludwig von Mises, 1949

Historical Recognition

“He intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.”

- An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of

the Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith, 1776

(2) Evolutionary Process

• There are several important parallels between economic systems and biological evolutionary theory– Complex systems– Self-organized agents / individuals– Adaptation / natural selection– Emergence of “order”– Understanding the historical process helps to

explain behavior

Biology and Economics

“The precise mathematical relationship which describes the link between the frequency and size of the extinction of companies, for example, is virtually identical to that which describes the extinction of biological species in the fossil record. Only the timescales differ.”

- Why Most Things Fail: Evolution, Extinction &

Economics, Paul Ormerod, 2005

(3) Behavioral Concerns

• Various well-documented “fallacies” can cause inaccurate or biased estimates of values, probabilities, etc. E.g.,– Anchoring fallacy: bias toward an initial value– Inattentional blindness: concentrating in one area

can induce blindness to other events– Availability fallacy: immediately-available

examples have a perhaps undue influence on our estimates

Evaluating Probabilities

“The information provided by advocacy groups is blunt. “Y-Me states that breast cancer is ‘the overall leading cause of death in

women between the ages of 40 and 55.’ It adds: ‘In the United States, 1 in 8 women will develop breast cancer in her lifetime. This year, breast cancer will be newly diagnosed every three minutes and a woman will die of breast cancer every 13 minutes.’

“CapCure, the organization founded by Michael Milken to fight prostate

cancer, states similar statistics: ‘In 2002, an estimated 189,000 men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer. This represents one new case every three minutes.’

“While the figures are accurate, some medical researchers are concerned

by the messages they convey. Such statements, they say, may lead people to exaggerate their chances of getting and dying from a fearsome disease.”

- “Experts Strive to Put Diseases in Proper Perspective,” by Gina Kolata, New York Times, 7/2/02

Evaluating Probabilities (cont.)“Even concerns about real dangers, when blown out of proportion, do

demonstrable harm. Take the fear of cancer. Many Americans overestimate the prevalence of the disease, underestimate the odds of surviving it, and put themselves at greater risk as a result. Women in their forties believe they have a 1 in 10 chance of dying from breast cancer, a Dartmouth study found. Their real lifetime odds are more like 1 in 250. Women’s heightened perception of risk, rather than motivating them to get checkups or seek treatment, can have the opposite effect. A study of daughters of women with breast cancer found an inverse correlation between fear and prevention: the greater a daughter’s fear of the disease the less frequent her breast self-examination. Studies of the general population-both men and women-find that large numbers of people who believe they have symptoms of cancer delay going to a doctor, often for several months. When asked why, they report they are terrified about the pain and financial ruin cancer can cause as well as poor prospects for a cure….”

- The Culture of Fear: Why Americans are Afraid of the Wrong Things, Barry Glassner, 2000, Basic Books

Research

• New undergraduate research initiative at the University of Illinois

• Current research projects– Agent-based modeling– Predator – prey models– Power laws and their applications– Neuroeconomics and behavioral economics

Conclusion

ERM Predictions – Lam*1. ERM will become an industry standard

2. CRO position will be prevalent

3. Audit committees will become risk committees

4. Economic capital will replace VaR

5. Enterprise-level transfer of risk

6. Impact of advanced technology

7. Measurement standard for operational risk

8. Mark-to-market accounting

9. Risk education will grow

10. Salary gap between risk professionals will widen

*Enterprise Risk Management: From Incentives to Controls, James Lam, 2003

Personal Conclusions

• ERM is a giant redwood

• However, let’s not underestimate how big a challenge it is

– Even in a “frictionless” world, quantifying and codifying a holistic approach to risk management is an enormous task

– Real-world realities make it even more difficult

• But it’s worth the effort

Concluding Quotation

“The revolutionary idea that defines the

boundary between modern times and the past

is the mastery of risk”

- Peter Bernstein, Against the Gods