environmental scan

NMC

Environmental Scan2006

What is environmental scanning?

Environmental scanning has to do with external events, trends, and relationships that have

potential for impacting an organization.

The purpose of environmental scanning

is …

... to help organizations create a preferred future.

Purpose of the NMC scan

• to provide a cornerstone for NMC's strategic planning process

• to provide perspectives on NMC's operating environment

Purpose of the NMC scan

• to identify challenges and opportunities with potential for impacting NMC

• to create strategic advantage in NMC's changing marketplace

Components of NMC's environmental scan

1. Macro change forces affecting American society and NMC's environmental context

2. NMC constituent interviews3. NMC staff interviews4. Issues facing community colleges5. Focal Points for NMC

An important caveat

Answers describe the present;

questions define the future.

You are here

The macro scan

The macro scan provides information and implications

related to change forces that are having a significant impact on American society and NMC's

operating environment.

Future Scan categories

• Economics – the workplace, the workforce, and the exchange of value

Future Scan categories

• Demographics – vital human statistics

Future Scan categories

• Social Values & Lifestyles – the beliefs and behaviors of people

Future Scan categories

• Advances & Discoveries – machines, processes, and techniques which enhance or replace the human element

Future Scan categories

• Organizational Contexts – how people organize to relate, share, achieve, and compete

Future Scan categories

• Political Climate – the governing context in which people and organizations pursue their objectives

Future Scan categories

• Public Opinion – commonly held perceptions and understandings

Future Scan categories

• World Affairs – interactions of groups and nations which affect the political climate and world marketplace

Radical Change

• We are transitioning from a period of rapid change to one of radical change.

• Most change will be triggered by external forces.

Radical Change

• You can’t run from it.• You can’t hide from it.• And two of our tested strategies –

running faster and working harder – can be strategies of diminishing returns.

The changing nature of the workforce

• More than one-half of Americans work full-time.

• The educational attainment level of the workforce continues to increase.

The changing nature of the workforce

• The gap between the unemployment rates of those without a high school diploma and those who have completed college continues to increase.

The changing nature of the workforce

• Only about one-fourth of workers displaced from their jobs find full time work that pays at least what their previous job paid.

The changing nature of the workforce

• Six of the ten industries projected to grow the fastest are health related, and three are computer related.

• Employment is down in jobs that can be automated or performed with lower labor costs.

Implications

• Employers will seek quality, short term relationships with workers.

• To effectively compete in the global marketplace, employers will pressure workers to reduce their salary and fringe benefit costs.

Implications

• Two education-related markets will expand: 1. workforce development and training to accommodate the changing nature of work2. continuing education of the already educated

Implications for NMC

• Community college enrollments typically expand as unemployment levels increase.

Implications for NMC

• NMC should assess how it can effectively and efficiently serve more markets that are smaller.

Implications for NMC

• NMC should assess the market for continuously enhancing the capacity of those who already hold college credentials.

Aging of the Population

• We are getting older – average life expectancy is about 78 years.

• A 65 year old male can expect to live 17 more years; a 65 year old female can expect to live 20 more years.

Aging of the Population

• People ages 84-95 make up the fastest growing demographic group in America.

• Some forecasters say that people may live as long as trees by mid-century.

Some implications

• Social, medical, and infrastructure expenditures will increase.

• Fountain of Youth products proliferate

• More people will think about their exercising and consumption lifestyles.

Some more implications

• Retirement will be redefined.• Economics will provide dynamic

resistance to social and political entitlements.

• The aging of society will profoundly affect enrollment, staffing, and community support.

Machines

• Machines are getting smaller … and much smarter.

• Most communication that takes place is now between machines.

• The convergence of computers and biology holds promise of machines that can think.

Three implications

• Manufacturing, as we have known it, will be revolutionized.

• Fewer human workers will be needed.

• More non-machine work will be done by lower paid employees—wherever they live.

Knowledge work

The continuum

data – information – knowledge – wisdom

Two implications

• Fewer people will have meaningful work.

• There will always be a job, says Pulitzer Prize-winning author Thomas Friedman in The World Is Flat, for those who are special, specialized, anchored, and really adaptable.

Communication Technology

We will move information at the speed of light, and we will be “connected” 24/7/365.

Three implications

• People will be pushed to make more decisions in increasingly shorter periods of time.

• People's thinking won’t be as good as it used to be.

• People will long to be “disconnected.”

Public Opinion

Shaped primarily by the media and blogs, public opinion will become more diverse and more volatile.

Two implications

• More ideas and solutions will find simultaneous favor and disfavor.

• Anyone can be an activist, and one person can appear to be a groundswell of 100,000 or a million … or more.

Education

As always, education be the key to the future.

But not education as we know it!

One implication

• Learning will be delivered in nontraditional ways in nontraditional places at nontraditional times by nontraditional teachers to nontraditional students.

Boundary Breaking

Geographic, political, and organizational boundaries are becoming increasingly meaningless.

Three BIG implications

• The domination of world economics and politics will change.

• Different cultures will have to agree onthe values necessary for a civilized world.

• The global economy will define the powerof nations, and determine the nature of work and the quality of life everywhere.

NMC Constituent Scan

Addressing technology needs is a concern of business leaders throughout the region.

NMC Constituent Scan

Recruiting highly skilled technical

people to the Grand Traverse region is

proving difficult.

NMC Constituent Scan

The majority of constituents interviewed believe Michigan is in

decline.

NMC Constituent Scan

Constituents are concerned with the

region's growth, and the lack of cooperation

and coordination that is needed to manage it.

NMC Constituent Scan

Issues affecting the region arepolarizing the constituency, and little

is being done to host meaningful

discussions that address important issues.

NMC Constituent Scan

Educational systems in the area must

address globalization, particularly in regard

to teaching students foreign languages.

NMC Constituent Scan

The region must take action to capitalize on its geographic location

and water resources while assuring

safeguards for the environment.

NMC Constituent Scan

Demographic and economic changes

impacting the area are testing established

political entities.

NMC Constituent Scan

Successes related to tourism

seem to have blinded area leaders to

other opportunities that have potential for

enhancing the region.

NMC Constituent Scan

One consequence of NMC's responsiveness to the community is

that some community members perceive

the College as spreading itself too thin

and compromising its primary mission.

NMC Staff Scan

There are opportunities for NMC in

areas ranging from water resources to the

arts to providing support for area entrepreneurs.

NMC Staff Scan

Michigan is perceived by NMC staff

as a State that may not have the political

capacity to "turn things around."

NMC Staff Scan

The immediate challenges to Michigan

and the Traverse City area are education, the

economy, and workforce capacity.

NMC Staff Scan

The central issues facing area governments are managing growth

while protecting the environment and the

quality of life in the area.

NMC Staff Scan

NMC has a good reputation and

is well positioned to take a leadership role

in the community.

NMC Staff Scan

NMC staff members believe that the

College is enhancing its capacity to lead in

both the political and educational arenas.

NMC Staff Scan

NMC staff members believe the College

should be a significant partner in workforce

development and community enhancement.

NMC Staff Scan

NMC staff members feel "let down"

by Michigan's political process.

Community College Scan

Increases in tuition costs, decreases in

Pell Grant funding, and the growth of private student loans are three forces impacting community colleges.

Community College Scan

There are obstacles preventing community college students from

seamlessly transferring to four-year institutions.

Community College Scan

Community college expenditures for

remediation are increasing. (Remediation

now costs community colleges $50 million

annually in Michigan.)

Community College Scan

More consumers of education are becoming "consumers of the whole [of education]."

Community College Scan

Community colleges need to question

the long-term future of an Associate's Degree

in an environment where a Bachelor's Degree

is increasingly considered the entry level credential.

Community College Scan

Community colleges need to assessthe viability of their basic operating

model (a place-based, community-focused institution providing comprehensive programming leading to an Associate's Degree).

Community College Scan

The target markets for community

colleges are shifting as the middle class

shrinks and the gap between the rich and

the poor continues to widen.

Community College Scan

Open access—a community college

success story—has diversified the classroom

and placed instructors at the front line in a

continuing effort to help all students succeed.

Community College Scan

Community colleges must be more

open to change and guard against solving

new problems with old solutions.

NMC Focal Points

NMC must clearly articulate its vision.

NMC Focal Points

NMC must strive to be a leader in the

delivery of quality learning using technology

and flexible scheduling.

NMC Focal Points

NMC must continue educating legislators in regard to the purpose

and value of community colleges.

NMC Focal Points

NMC should consider positioning itself

as the training arm of every area business.

NMC Focal Points

Within the scope of the College's mission, partnerships with area

organizations and businesses should be expanded.

NMC Focal Points

NMC should investigate how instruction

can be embedded in the workplace to better

serve employees and employers.

NMC Focal Points

NMC should consider developing a

rapid response team to address inquiries

from potential customers.

NMC Focal Points

NMC should focus its identity.

NMC Focal Points

NMC should continue its pursuit of

coherent articulation agreements with four-

year institutions.

NMC Focal Points

"Anything to do with water" andnanotechnology applications are two

areasripe for NMC risk-taking and

innovation.

An important thought

... about entropy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics

An important thought

Entropy is the degradation of the matter and energy in the universe to an ultimate state of inert uniformity.

Entropy represents the potential for doing work, the capacity for taking action, or the degree of confusion and disorder associated with any physical or information activity.

An important thought

The Second Law of Thermodynamics posits that all observed natural processes generate entropy.

Entropy will increase in any system that cannot communicate in an ordered fashion with other systems or environments external to itself.

An important thought

And, so, to comprehend and cope with our environment, we must continually challenge our concepts of reality.

Adapted from Col. John Boyd in Destruction and

Creation (1976) in Boyd: The fighter pilot who changed the art of war

(Coram, 2002)

An important caveat

Answers describe the present;

questions define the future.