europe's ageing demography 5 nov14
Post on 24-Jun-2015
808 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Europe’s Ageing Demography
Wednesday 5th November 2014
An ILC-UK Population Patterns Seminar Series event
#populationpatterns
Welcome
Lawrence ChurchillILC-UK Trustee
An ILC-UK Population Patterns Seminar Series event
#populationpatterns
Welcome
Maureen O’NeillEuropean Economic and Social Committee
An ILC-UK Population Patterns Seminar Series event
#populationpatterns
Europe’s Ageing DemographyThe key facts on Europe’s Ageing Population
Helen CreightonILC-UK
An ILC-UK Population Patterns Seminar Series event
#populationpatterns
Background
UK Fact PackGrowing EU integrationFiscal sustainability concerns
The European Population is…
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080495,000,000
500,000,000
505,000,000
510,000,000
515,000,000
520,000,000
525,000,000
530,000,000
Source: EuroStat
Tota
l Pop
ulati
on
… a growing population
…and an ageing population
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20600
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Source: EuroStat
Med
ian
Age
A Pan-European perspective hides regional differences
Populations in European regions, 2013=100
A Pan-European perspective hides regional differences
2010 2060
Countries with a percentage of their population over 65 years of age above the EU average
What is it like to grow old in Europe?
- Health and life expectancy- Housing quality and costs- Work and retirement- Pensions and poverty
Pensioner Poverty
Material Deprivation rates among the over 65s
BulgariaLa
tvia
Romania
Lithuania
Hungary
Croatia
Poland
Greece
Slova
kia
Cypru
sIta
ly
Portugal
Estonia
Czech
Republic
Slove
niaM
altaEU 28
Spain
Ireland
Germany
France
Austria
Belgium UK
Finland
Netherlands
Denmark
Iceland
Luxe
mbourg
Switz
erland
Sweden
Norway
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Source: EuroStat
Perc
ent
Pensioner Poverty
Relative Poverty rates among the over 65s
Switzerla
nd
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Croatia
Slovenia
Lithuania
Finland
Belgium
Sweden
Portugal
Malta
Estonia
Greece Italy
United Kingdom
Romania
Austria
Germany
Spain
EU (28 co
untries)
Denmark
PolandLa
tvia
Ireland
France
Norway
Slovakia
Luxe
mbourg
Czech
Republic
Hungary
Netherlands
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: Eurostat
Perc
ent
State pension adequacy
Replacement rate provided by the state pension to the average earner
GreeceSpain
Austria
Cyprus
Italy
Slovenia
Finland
Portugal
Czech
Republic
BulgariaEU27
France
Romania
Norway
Hungary
Belgium
Germany
Sweden
Switzerla
nd
Lithuania
United Kingdom
Latvi
a
Netherlands
Ireland
Denmark
Poland
Estonia
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Source: OECD
Perc
ent
Early Retirement
• While there has been a 10.2% increase in employment of older workers (55-64) in the EU in the last 10 years, in 2013 just 50.1% of those aged 55-64 were in employment.
• Employment rates range between 73% in Sweden and 35.6% in Greece.
What are the costs of an ageing society?
PensionsHealthcareOld age benefits
Projected pension expenditure as a percentage of GDP in the EU-27
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 206010
10.5
11
11.5
12
12.5
13
13.5
Source: European Commission, Economic Policy Committee
Perc
ent
Healthcare
In 2010 healthcare expenditure in the EU-27 was around 7% of GDP.
The European Commission’s reference scenario puts healthcare spending at 8.2% of GDP in 2050 in the EU-27.
Based on different scenario’s they predict spending could be between 6.7% and 12.6% of GDP
Social protection expenditure on old age care in euros per inhabitant, 2011
Denmark
Switz
erland
Sweden
United Kingdom
France
Finland
Germany
Ireland
Spain
Cypru
sM
alta
Hungary
Estonia
Latvi
a
Croatia
Bulgaria0.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
Source: EuroStat
Euro
Per
Inha
bita
nt
Fritz Von NordheimEuropean Commission
An ILC-UK Population Patterns Seminar Series event
#populationpatterns
Maciej KucharczykAge Platform Europe
An ILC-UK Population Patterns Seminar Series event
#populationpatterns
Jean LambertMEP
An ILC-UK Population Patterns Seminar Series event
#populationpatterns
Andrew RearMunich Re
An ILC-UK Population Patterns Seminar Series event
#populationpatterns
Richard WilletsPartnership
An ILC-UK Population Patterns Seminar Series event
#populationpatterns
Post-retirement life expectancy in the EU
Richard Willets
ILC-UK 2014 EU Factpack launch - 5 November 2014
• Post-retirement life expectancy is a key determinant of the cost of pension provision; policy regarding retirement age; the dependency ratio, etc.
• This presentation considers life expectancy at age 65 in EU nations.
• The split into Eastern, Northern, Southern and Western Europe mirrors the approach taken in the ILC-UK EU Factpack.
• Historic data was obtained from the Eurostat database1 and the Human Mortality Database2.
• Projected figures for future years were taken from the Eurostat database.
Post-retirement life expectancy in the EU
April 13, 2023
25
• 1 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database (data downloaded on 19 Oct 2014).
• 2 Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de (data downloaded on 19 Oct 2014).
Variation in post-retirement life expectancy in the EU
April 13, 2023
26
• Source: own calculations using Eurostat data
Life expectancy (at age 65) for males, by EU country, 2010-12Life expectancy (at age 65) for males, by EU country, 2010-12
Latv
ia
Bulgar
ia
Lithu
ania
Hunga
ry
Slovak
ia
Roman
ia
Eston
ia
Croat
ia
Poland
Czech
Rep
ublic
Sloven
ia
Denm
ark
Portu
gal
Finlan
d
Belgium
Luxe
mbo
urg
Irelan
dM
alta
Nethe
rland
s
Austri
a
Ger
man
y
Cypru
s
Gre
ece
United
King
dom
Italy
Sweden
Spain
Franc
e10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Northern Europe
Eastern Europe +5.7 years
Variation in post-retirement life expectancy in the EU
April 13, 2023
27
• Source: own calculations using Eurostat data
Life expectancy (at age 65) for females, by EU country, 2010-12Life expectancy (at age 65) for females, by EU country, 2010-12
Bulgar
ia
Roman
ia
Hunga
ry
Slovak
ia
Latv
ia
Croat
ia
Lithu
ania
Czech
Rep
ublic
Poland
Eston
ia
Denm
ark
Cypru
s
Irelan
d
United
King
dom
Gre
ece
Malt
a
Nethe
rland
s
Sloven
ia
Ger
man
y
Sweden
Portu
gal
Belgium
Austri
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Finlan
dIta
lySpa
in
Franc
e14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Northern Europe
Eastern Europe+6.3 years
Variation in post-retirement life expectancy in the EU
April 13, 2023
28
• Source: own calculations using Eurostat data
Life expectancy (at age 65) , for selected EU nations, 2010-12Life expectancy (at age 65) , for selected EU nations, 2010-12
EU Nation Gender Life expectancy at age 65 (years)
France Female 23.5
Latvia Male 13.4
10.2 years
Trend by region - males
April 13, 2023
29
Source: own calculations using Eurostat and Human Mortality Database data.Eastern European countries: CZK, HUN, SVK; Northern European countries: DNK, FIN, SWE;Southern European countries: ESP, ITA, PRT; Western European countries: AUT, BEL, FRA, IRE, NLD, GBR.
Life expectancy (at age 65) for males, average for selected countries in regions, 1950-52 to 2010-12 Life expectancy (at age 65) for males, average for selected countries in regions, 1950-52 to 2010-12
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Eastern Europe
Northern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Trend by region - males
April 13, 2023
30
Source: own calculations using Eurostat and Human Mortality Database data.Eastern European countries: CZK, HUN, SVK; Northern European countries: DNK, FIN, SWE;Southern European countries: ESP, ITA, PRT; Western European countries: AUT, BEL, FRA, IRE, NLD, GBR.
Life expectancy (at age 65) for males, average for selected countries in regions, 1950-52 to 2010-12 Life expectancy (at age 65) for males, average for selected countries in regions, 1950-52 to 2010-12
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Eastern Europe
Northern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Trend by region - males
April 13, 2023
31
Source: own calculations using Eurostat and Human Mortality Database data.Eastern European countries: CZK, HUN, SVK; Northern European countries: DNK, FIN, SWE;Southern European countries: ESP, ITA, PRT; Western European countries: AUT, BEL, FRA, IRE, NLD, GBR.
Life expectancy (at age 65) for males, average for selected countries in regions, 1950-52 to 2010-12 Life expectancy (at age 65) for males, average for selected countries in regions, 1950-52 to 2010-12
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Eastern Europe
Northern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Trend by region - females
April 13, 2023
32
Source: own calculations using Eurostat and Human Mortality Database data.Eastern European countries: CZK, HUN, SVK; Northern European countries: DNK, FIN, SWE;Southern European countries: ESP, ITA, PRT; Western European countries: AUT, BEL, FRA, IRE, NLD, GBR.
Life expectancy (at age 65) for females, average for selected countries in regions, 1950-52 to 2010-12 Life expectancy (at age 65) for females, average for selected countries in regions, 1950-52 to 2010-12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Eastern Europe
Northern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Increase over successive decades
April 13, 2023
33
Source: own calculations using Eurostat and Human Mortality Database data.Eastern European countries: CZK, HUN, SVK; Northern European countries: DNK, FIN, SWE;Southern European countries: ESP, ITA, PRT; Western European countries: AUT, BEL, FRA, IRE, NLD, GBR.
Increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in years, over successive 10-year periods, average for selected countries in regions, 1950-52 to 2010-12Increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in years, over successive 10-year periods, average for selected countries in regions, 1950-52 to 2010-12
1951-1961 1961-1971 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2011
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Eastern Europe
Northern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Increase in the last decade
April 13, 2023
34
Source: own calculations using Eurostat data.
Increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in years, from 2000-02 to 2010-12, by EU nation Increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in years, from 2000-02 to 2010-12, by EU nation
Lithu
ania
Bulgar
ia
Latv
ia
Hunga
ry
Roman
ia
Croat
ia
Slovak
iaIta
ly
Poland
Sweden
Greec
e
Czech
Rep
ublic
Cypru
s
Austri
aSpa
in
Eston
ia
Portu
gal
Belgium
Denm
ark
Finlan
d
Germ
any
Luxe
mbo
urg
Franc
e
United
King
dom
Nethe
rland
s
Sloven
iaM
alta
Irelan
d0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Projected increases for Western Europe
April 13, 2023
35
Source: own calculations using Eurostat and Human Mortality Database data.
Increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in Western Europe in years, over successive decades, actual & projectedIncrease in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in Western Europe in years, over successive decades, actual & projected
1951-1961 1961-1971 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 2031-2041 2041-2051
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Projected increases for Western Europe
April 13, 2023
36
Source: own calculations using Eurostat and Human Mortality Database data.
Increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in Western Europe in years, over successive decades, actual & projectedIncrease in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in Western Europe in years, over successive decades, actual & projected
1951-1961 1961-1971 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 2031-2041 2041-2051
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Possible fu-ture in-
creases?
Projected increases for Western Europe
April 13, 2023
37
Source: own calculations using Eurostat and Human Mortality Database data.
Increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in Western Europe in years, over successive decades, actual & projectedIncrease in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in Western Europe in years, over successive decades, actual & projected
1951-1961 1961-1971 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 2031-2041 2041-2051
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Possible fu-ture in-
creases?
Projected increases for Western Europe
April 13, 2023
38
Source: own calculations using Eurostat and Human Mortality Database data.
Increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in Western Europe in years, over successive decades, actual & projectedIncrease in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in Western Europe in years, over successive decades, actual & projected
1951-1961 1961-1971 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 2031-2041 2041-2051
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Possible fu-ture in-
creases?
Projected increases for Western Europe
April 13, 2023
39
Source: own calculations using Eurostat and Human Mortality Database data.
Increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in Western Europe in years, over successive decades, actual & projectedIncrease in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in Western Europe in years, over successive decades, actual & projected
1951-1961 1961-1971 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 2031-2041 2041-2051
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Eurostat principal projection
Projected life expectancy by region
April 13, 2023
40
Source: own calculations using Eurostat and Human Mortality Database data.
Life expectancy (at age 65) for males, by region, actual & projectedLife expectancy (at age 65) for males, by region, actual & projected
195119561961196619711976198119861991199620012006201120162021202620312036204120462051205620612066207110
12
14
16
18
20
22
24 Eastern Europe
Northern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Increase in the last decade
April 13, 2023
41
Source: own calculations using Eurostat data.
Increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in years, from 2000-02 to 2010-12, by EU nation Increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in years, from 2000-02 to 2010-12, by EU nation
Lithu
ania
Bulgar
ia
Latv
ia
Hunga
ry
Roman
ia
Croat
ia
Slovak
iaIta
ly
Poland
Sweden
Greec
e
Czech
Rep
ublic
Cypru
s
Austri
aSpa
in
Eston
ia
Portu
gal
Belgium
Denm
ark
Finlan
d
Germ
any
Luxe
mbo
urg
Franc
e
United
King
dom
Nethe
rland
s
Sloven
iaM
alta
Irelan
d0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Projected increase over the next decade
April 13, 2023
42
Source: own calculations using Eurostat data.
Projected increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in years, from 2010-12 to 2020-22, by EU nation Projected increase in life expectancy (at age 65) for males in years, from 2010-12 to 2020-22, by EU nation
Lithu
ania
Bulgar
ia
Latv
ia
Hunga
ry
Roman
ia
Croat
ia
Slovak
iaIta
ly
Poland
Sweden
Greec
e
Czech
Rep
ublic
Cypru
s
Austri
aSpa
in
Eston
ia
Portu
gal
Belgium
Denm
ark
Finlan
d
Germ
any
Luxe
mbo
urg
Franc
e
United
King
dom
Nethe
rland
s
Sloven
iaM
alta
Irelan
d0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
• Post-retirement life expectancy in EU nations has been increasing at an accelerating rate in recent decades.
• The differential between the lowest and highest life expectancy nations has been widening.
• Eurostat’s projection of future mortality, which is a key component of population projections, assumes the pace of improvement for high life expectancy nations will slow dramatically.
• The pace of improvement for low life expectancy nations is projected to continue at a more rapid rate – and hence the gap is assumed to narrow.
Summary
April 13, 2023
43
Thank you
April 13, 2023
44
Partnership is a trading style of the Partnership group of Companies, which includes; Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited (registered in England and Wales No. 05465261), and Partnership Home Loans Limited (registered in England and Wales No. 05108846).
Partnership Life Assurance Company Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Partnership Home Loans Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The registered office for both companies is Sackville House, 143-149 Fenchurch Street, London EC3M 6BN.
Discussion
Lawrence ChurchillILC-UK Trustee
An ILC-UK Population Patterns Seminar Series event
#populationpatterns
top related