eurusd trade idea 12072011

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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

EUR/USD is looking over-stretched near term and we would like to re-sell the rebound.Chart Watch

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1Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Technical Trade Ideas

Long 1.1711, current1.1867

1.2150Raise profit stopto 1.1765

Buy at market(1.1711). Add

1.1650

Buy NOK/SEK05.07.2011

1.37001.4225Sell 1.4020,

1.4095Sell EUR/USD12.07.2011

Short 1.6082, current1.5817

1.5550Lower stop1.6020

Sell 1.6025,1.6140

Sell GBP/USD27.06.2011

Take ProfitStop Outcome P&LTrade IdeaInstrumentDate

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2Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

EUR/USD 60 minute chart

Hourly RSI has diverged and

intraday we are seeing acorrective rebound. The 200week ma is located at 1.4024,the 38.2% and 50%retracement of the movelower seen in July so far lie at1.4120, 1.4210

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3Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

EUR/USD daily chartMarket has broken down from its symmetrical triangle and markets frequently do a 'return topoint of break out' ahead off another move lower.

Daily

Market has broken downfrom triangle and this now

offers resistance at1.4161

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4Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Technical Signals

Market is trendingbut not yet

registering abullish or bearishsignal

Is the market trending?

Is ADX>20

YES

NO

Market is nottrending

If MACD>zero

And +DI>-DI

Then Bullishtrending signal

If MACD< zero

And +DI<-DI

Then Bearishtrending signal

Neither criteria ismet

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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), FX Emerging Markets Technicals, Strategic Technical Themes;

Tuesday: Daily Market Technicals (FX); Bullion Weekly Technicals;

Wednesday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Commodity Weekly & Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals;

Thursday: Daily Market Technicals (FX);

Friday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Fixed Income Weekly Technicals.

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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Karen JonesHead of FICC Technical Analysis

Tel. +44 207 475 1425

Mail karen.jones@commerzbank.com

ZentraleKaiserplatzFrankfurt am Mainwww.commerzbank.de

Postfachanschrift60261 Frankfurt am MainTel. +49 (0)69 / 136-20Mail info@commerzbank.com

Axel RudolphSenior Technical Analyst

Tel. +44 207 475 5721

Mail axel.rudolph@commerzbank.com