ewi-posted on 10 aug 2010
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8/8/2019 EWI-Posted on 10 Aug 2010
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Posted: Sunday, August 8, 2010.
Bottom Line: Theres no change in our outlook from Thursday. Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea
are vulnerable to declines here, but the regional trend remains higher on balance.
Philippines Philippines Composite Index
We havent looked in on the Philippines equity market in some time. After a strong rally early in the
year, prices entered a corrective period in April and May. The Philippines Composite Index has since
thrust out of that corrective phase with a rally that is now taking on the appearance of a diagonal
triangle. Whenever we see diagonal type formations occurring during thrusts out of consolidation
patterns, we should be aware that the move is often a terminal wave occurring following a fourth (or
wave C) wave correction. The short-term outlook for the Philippines points to a possible reversal
occurring following a thrust above the diagonals upper trendline in the 3570-3600 area in coming
days.
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Japan Nikkei 225 Index
The Nikkei appears ready to move up into the 10,300 area where the corrective wave (ii) could
complete its wave count and set up a new leg to the downside.
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Australia ASX 200 Index
Fridays trading in the ASX 200 generated an RSI divergence on the daily chart, suggesting prices
are getting close to the completion of Minute wave c of Minor wave 2. Wed still prefer to see thrust
over the 4600 level to complete the wave internals and take out late-Junes Minute wave a high.
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China Shanghai Composite Index
Judging the extent of fourth waves as they unfold is a particularly difficult task for the Elliott analyst.
Whether that single dip below 2600 was enough to complete that wave, or whether a larger triangle
or flat will develop here, we simply cant tell. We do remain convinced that the downside is limited in
Shanghai for now.
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South Korea: KOSPI 200 Index
We are anticipating weakness in the KOSPI 200 to take prices back to 225 within the current
diagonal triangle. At this point, that weakness hasnt materialized. There is no additional evidence to
change our outlook at this time, though.
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Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
The trend remains firmly up in the Hang Seng index. We may need to re-assess the intermediate-
term outlook if prices move much higher. Lets see if this week generates any type of bearish
potential signals in the region.
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Singapore MSCI Singapore Index
Fridays weakness supports last weeks analysis that a top is in place in the MSCI Singapore index.
Prices held the lower Keltner channel on Friday. Well need to see that 354 level give way to confirm
the potential for a decline to 345 this month.
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Taiwan MSCI Taiwan Index
Were looking for prices to decline to 276 in the MSCI Taiwan index over the short-term. There ispotential for a much larger decline if our wave analysis on the daily chart is correct, but given the
stubborn nature of the advance, well keep our targets modest until more deterioration in the
technical picture is evident.
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India S&P Nifty Index
Our message in recent weeks for Indian equities is consistent sideways sideways sideways
and thats just how this market has behaved. The short-term technical profile suggests this sidewayscorrection could bring prices close to 5300 on the Nifty index before setting up a potential second
wave low and a bullish opportunity.
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