fast plan pt 9: results (costs and ridership)

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 1© 2008 by The Mission Group

F.A.S.T. PlanDecember 2013

An affordable approach to creating a more

effective and user-friendly transit system

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Part IXResults: Costs & Benefits of the FAST Plan

Produced under the auspices of Move San Diego, Inc., and the Scripps Ranch/Miramar Ranch North Traffic Reduction Project.

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 2

How many people would ride transit with the FAST Plan?

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 3

We can’t be sure, because we didn’t have access to

projected data for 2050, when the County will add well over one million people, many of

whom will live in “transit focus areas.”

However, we did have access to data for the year 2006…

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 4

FAST Plan Ridership (2006 Data)

Commuter Rail (Coaster) 4,150 1%Light Rail (SD Trolley) 78,000 10%Light Rail (Sprinter) 16,600 2%BRT (Core Routes) 180,000 23%BRT (MetroXpress) 286,000 36%Local Bus (MTS & NCTD) 128,000 16%Streetcar 98,000 12%Total “2006” Projected Ridership 790,000 100% 2008 Actual Transit Ridership 345,000 Gain in Ridership 445,000 (130%) .Likely 2050 Ridership > 1,000,000

Service WeekdayRidership

% of DailyTrips

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 5

2006 FAST Plan Ridership Flows 2006 FAST Plan Ridership Flows

2005 Trolley Flow: 23,000

Many segments of the FAST Plan will carry more riders—in some places,

more than 3x more—than the busiest segment of the Trolley did in 2005

(or even 2013).

Many segments of the FAST Plan will carry more riders—in some places,

more than 3x more—than the busiest segment of the Trolley did in 2005

(or even 2013).

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 6

2006 FAST Plan Ridership Flows 2006 FAST Plan Ridership Flows Again, ridership projections were made using San Diego’s 2006 population and land use.

As San Diego grows and more people live by transit, projected ridership should be expected to increase significantly.

Even so, ridership flows on the North/Central component of the FAST Plan are equal to or better than existing Trolley lines.

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 7

Why would so many new people ride the

FAST Plan?

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 8

Faster (shorter) travel times

Fewer transfers

Less waiting

Better station/stop location

Greater reliability

Overall, the FAST Plan offers:

Than our region’s current plans.

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 9

Just what would it cost to build?

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 10

% of Total Plan Guideway Length

10% 10%

19%21%

22%

12%

3%2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Bridge Elevated At Grade(New)

At Grade(Existing)

Cut &Open

Cut &Cover

BoredTunnel

SurfaceRail

Total Miles: 171

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 11

SANDAG RTP Capital Costs

Mode Millions

BRT 1,028$

Heavy Rail 2,617$

Light Rail 14,416$

Rapid Bus 997$

Streetcar 67$

Total 19,125$

Our region’s 2050 Regional Transportation Plan anticipates spending over $19 billion just for public transit capital projects.

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 12

FAST Plan Capital Costs

Depending on how you slice and dice it, the FAST Plan may save the region up to $5 billion in direct capital costs, and may make

some road projects unnecessary, saving further dollars.

FAST Plan 13,872,950,075$

RTP 2050 19,125,000,000$

FAST Plan Savings 5,252,049,925$

Cost Difference 27%

Capital Cost Comparison

*

*The FAST Plan also includes approximately $1 billion in road projects which are not included in this comparison since they would not be funded from the transit portion of the RTP.

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 13

But could we afford to operate all those new

services?

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 14

Comparative Operating Subsidy

*Depending on cost model used. All models only assume ridership based on 2006 tables for FAST Plan.

SANDAG RTP $20 Billion

FAST Plan $11-14 Billion*

Cost Savings to the Region: $6-9 Billion(30-45%)

Through 2050

We understand the difficulty in projecting long term operating costs and passenger revenue. Our modeling does indicate, though,

that a faster transit system can save the region billions.

Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego© 2013 by The Mission Group 15

Conclusion:The FAST Plan, as a strategic approach to

creating a better integrated transit network, can:

Reach into more places

Save people more travel time

Better support “smart growth” areas

Attract many more riders

Better improve automotive traffic and

Cost significantly less to build and operate

than our current transit plans.