february 15, 2013 | boston, ma
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F E B R U A R Y 1 5 , 2 0 1 3 | B O S T O N , M A
Stephen J. RourkeV I C E P R E S I D E N T , S Y S T E M P L A N N I N G
Restructuring Roundtable
Draft 2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast
2
About ISO New England
• Not-for-profit corporation– Created in 1997 to oversee New
England’s restructured electric power system; regulated by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
• Regional Transmission Organization– Independent of companies doing
business in markets; no financial interest in companies participating in markets
• Major responsibilities– Maintain reliable operation of the
electric grid– Administer wholesale electricity
markets– Plan for future system needs
ENERGY-EFFICIENCY (EE) FORECASTBackground
4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 130000
135000
140000
145000
150000
155000
RSP12 RSP12-FCM
Long-term Load Forecast Projects Demand10 Years Out
• Baseline forecast developed with:– State and regional
economic forecasts– 40 years of
New England weather history
– Other factors:• US Dept of Energy
projections of average retail prices
• New EE standards for household appliances
+0.9%Per year
Annual Energy Consumption Forecast 2012-2021 (gigawatt-hours)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
RSP12 RSP12-FCM
Peak Demand Forecast 2012-2021 (megawatts)
+1.5%per year
5
Energy Efficiency is a Priority in New EnglandRecent state EE spending and electric energy savings, 2009-2011
• Total NE states’ spending on EE in three-year period: $1.4B– Over $500 million spent in 2011
• Total reduction in electricity use: 3,905 GWh– About 1,580 GWh of electricity
savings in 2011
• Total summer peak demand savings: 549 MW– Average annual summer peak
demand reduction: 183 MW
$1.4B spent
3,905 GWh
(energy saved)
549 MW (peak
reduced)
6
EE in Forward Capacity Market• Annual Forward Capacity Market (FCM) auction commits resources
to be available three years in the future
• EE measures participate alongside generation– FCM provides a revenue stream that facilitates development of EE
• 2012 auction procured resources obligated for 2015-2016– 33,455 MW total capacity that will be needed
• ~1,500 MW is EE• EE in FCM has more than doubled since 2008
Pre-SMD
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 May 2010
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000
Capacity(MW)
Energy efficiency
Active Real- Time Demand-response
Emergency Generation
7
Energy-Efficiency Forecast Model Developed in 2012
• Previously, no well-established metrics for determining how much electricity will not be consumed in the future as a result of EE measures
• ISO-NE developed a forecast of “EE savings”—how much electric energy will not be used—beyond the 3-year FCM horizon (2016-2022)
• Forecast model based on future state EE budgets and amount of energy savings per dollar spent– Data provided by states and/or EE program administrators (PA’s)
8
EE Forecast Model General Assumptions
• Annual budgets provided by the public utility commissions or representatives on their behalf are used in model – Sources of EE funding include:
• System Benefits Charges• Forward Capacity Market• Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative• Other
• Production cost allowed to grow over forecast period
• Based on the PA’s ability to spend growing EE budgets and potential for increasing production costs, ISO applied uncertainty factor to some states
2013 ENERGY-EFFICIENCY FORECASTRegional Results
10
Summary of 2013 EE Forecast
• Draft forecast results are similar to the 2012 forecast results
• Generally, when adjusted for the impacts of EE, forecasted energy use remains flat for the region – Reductions in energy use in VT and RI
• Generally, demand reductions from EE slow peak growth rate in the region
• Program performance changes from 2012 forecast– Regional production cost decreased slightly, resulting in an increase in
energy reductions– Peak-to-energy-ratios decreased slightly, resulting in smaller demand
reductions from equivalent energy reductions
• Results vary by state
11
Regional EE Forecast Results(2016 to 2022)
• Total projected spending on energy efficiency: $5.6 billion
• Peak demand rises more slowly than with traditional forecast– Average annual reduction in peak demand: 188 MW– Total projected reduction over seven years: 1,314 MW– In VT, forecasted peak demand declines
• Annual electricity consumption remains flat compared to traditional forecast– Average annual energy savings: 1,319 GWh– Total projected reduction over seven years: 9,233 GWh– RI and VT forecasts show declining annual electricity consumption
12
Energy and Summer Peak EE Forecast DataGWh Savings
Sum of States ME NH VT CT RI MA2016 1,594 104 60 105 246 161 919
2017 1,494 97 57 97 232 150 861
2018 1,399 90 54 91 218 140 806
2019 1,309 84 51 84 204 131 754
2020 1,224 77 48 78 192 122 706
2021 1,144 71 46 73 180 114 660
2022 1,069 65 43 68 169 106 618
Total 9,233 588 359 596 1,441 924 5,324
Average 1,319 84 51 85 206 132 761
MW SavingsSum of States ME NH VT CT RI MA
2016 227 12 10 15 31 26 133
2017 213 11 9 14 29 24 124
2018 199 10 9 13 27 23 116
2019 186 10 8 12 26 21 109
2020 174 9 8 12 24 20 102
2021 163 8 8 11 23 18 95
2022 152 7 7 10 21 17 89
Total 1314 67 59 87 181 149 768
Average 188 10 8 12 26 21 110
13
New England Results: Lower Peak Demand Growth, Level Energy Demand
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 130000
135000
140000
145000
150000
155000
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
New England: Annual Energy (GWh)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
New England: Summer 90/10 Peak (MW)
14
EE Measures Focus on Lighting
NE CT ME MA NH RI VT0.00
25.00
50.00
75.00
100.00
2013 EEF % of Annual Energy by Measure for 2011
OtherCoolingCustomEducationRefrigerationProcessHVACLightingRESLighting LILightingC&I
15
New England Winter Peaks Trending Down1/
3/19
001/
3/19
021/
3/19
041/
3/19
061/
3/19
081/
3/19
101/
3/19
121/
3/19
141/
3/19
161/
3/19
181/
3/19
201/
3/19
221/
3/19
241/
3/19
261/
3/19
281/
3/19
301/
3/19
321/
3/19
341/
3/19
361/
3/19
381/
3/19
401/
3/19
421/
3/19
441/
3/19
461/
3/19
481/
3/19
501/
3/19
521/
3/19
541/
3/19
561/
3/19
581/
3/19
601/
3/19
621/
3/19
641/
3/19
661/
3/19
681/
3/19
701/
3/19
721/
3/19
741/
3/19
761/
3/19
781/
3/19
801/
3/19
821/
3/19
841/
3/19
861/
3/19
881/
3/19
901/
3/19
921/
3/19
941/
3/19
961/
3/19
981/
3/20
001/
3/20
021/
3/20
041/
3/20
061/
3/20
081/
3/20
101/
3/20
12
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
22000
23000
ISO-NE Winter Weekday Daily Peaks 2003/2004 to 2012/2013 (MW)Cumulative Daily Average Peak Drops Over 700 MW
Daily Peak Cumulative Average
16
Implications to the Power System
• Timing of necessary transmission upgrades
• Winter versus summer peak and energy impacts
• Declining load factor; minimum load issues
• Natural gas, nuclear, EE, DR, renewables – Will this be our system?
17
Conclusions
• States continue to make large investments in EE
• ISO-NE worked successfully with stakeholders to integrate EE data into ISO’s long-term planning & forecast processes
• EE forecast shows the states’ investment in EE is having a significant impact on electric energy consumption and peak demand
• VT/NH planning study: analysis revised with new resources & transmission and EE forecast indicates about $260 million of previously identified transmission upgrades deferred
• For more information see www.iso-ne.com/eefwg
18
ENERGY-EFFICIENCY FORECASTState-by-State Results
20
Connecticut: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
• Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:– Total spending: $337.7 million– Total energy saved: 1,009 GWh
• Annual average energy saved: 336.5 GWh– Total peak demand savings: 127 MW
• Annual average: 42 MW
• Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022:– Total spending: $806 million– Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 1,441 GWh
• Annual average: 206 GWh– Projected total reduction in peak demand: 181 MW
• Annual average: 26 MW
• CT program administrators:– CT Light & Power: http://www.cl-p.com/Home – United Illuminating Co.: https://www.uinet.com/
21
Connecticut Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 7500
7700
7900
8100
8300
8500
8700
8900
CT Summer Peak: RSP12 90/10 Forecast (MW)
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
CT Annual Energy: RSP12 Forecast (GWh)
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
22
Maine: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
• Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:– Total spending: $53.4 million– Total energy saved: 282 GWh
• Annual average: 94 GWh– Total peak demand savings: 32 MW
• Annual average: 11 MW
• Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: – Total spending: $202.7 million– Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 588 GWh
• Annual average: 84 GWh – Projected total reduction in peak demand: 67 MW
• Annual average: 10 MW
• ME Program Administrators:– Efficiency Maine: http://www.efficiencymaine.com/about– Maine Public Service Commission:
http://www.maine.gov/mpuc/electricity/index.shtml
23
Maine Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
ME Summer Peak: RSP12 90/10 Forecast (MW)
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
ME Annual Energy: RSP12 Forecast (GWh)
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
24
Massachusetts: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers• Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:
– Total spending: $729.3 million– Total energy saved: 1,828 GWh
• Annual average: 609.3 GWh– Total peak demand savings: 264 MW
• Annual average: 88 MW
• Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022– Total spending: $3.5 billion– Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 5,324 GWh
• Annual average: 761 GWh– Projected total reduction in peak demand: 768 MW
• Annual average: 120 MW
• MA program administrators:– Cape Light Compact: http://www.capelightcompact.org/ – Fitchburg Electric:
http://www.unitil.com/customer-configuration?loc=http%3A//www.unitil.com/– Mass. Electric Co. (Nantucket Electric Co.): https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub– NSTAR: http://www.nstar.com/residential/ – Western Mass. Electric Co.: http://www.wmeco.com/
25
Massachusetts Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 13000
14000
15000
16000
MA Summer Peak: RSP12 90/10 Forecast (MW)
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 60000
62000
64000
66000
68000
70000
72000
MA Annual Energy: RSP12 Forecast (GWh)
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
26
New Hampshire: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers• Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:
– Total spending: $58.6 million– Total energy saved: 191.4 GWh
• Annual average: 63.8 GWh– Total peak demand savings: 32 MW
• Annual average: 11 MW
• Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: – Total spending: $183.1 million– Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 359 GWh
• Annual average: 51 GWh– Projected total reduction in peak demand: 59 MW
• Annual average: 8 MW
• NH program administrators:– Public Service of New Hampshire: http://www.psnh.com/For-My-Home.aspx – Unitil:
http://www.unitil.com/customer-configuration?loc=http%3A//www.unitil.com/ – Granite State Electric Co.: https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub
27
New Hampshire Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
NH Summer Peak: RSP12 90/10 Forecast (MW)
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
NH Annual Energy: RSP12 Forecast (GWh)
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
28
Rhode Island: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
• Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: – Total spending: $90.2 million– Total energy saved: 258.8 GWh
• Annual average: 86.2 GWh– Total peak demand savings: 42 MW
• Annual average: 14 MW
• Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022:– Total spending: $538.5 million– Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 924 GWh
• Annual average: 132 GWh– Projected total reduction in peak demand: 149 MW
• Annual average: 21 MW
• RI program administrator:– Narragansett Electric Co.:
https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub
29
Rhode Island Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
RI Summer Peak: RSP12 90/10 Forecast (MW)
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 7900
8200
8500
8800
9100
9400
9700
RI Annual Energy: RSP12 Forecast (GWh)
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
30
Vermont: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers
• Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011:– Total spending: $102.6 million– Total energy saved: 317 GWh
• Annual average: 105.6 GWh– Total megawatts of peak saved: 46 MW
• Annual average: 16 MW
• Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022:– Total spending: $321.3 million– Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 596 GWh
• Annual average: 85 GWh– Projected total reduction in peak demand: 87 MW
• Annual average: 12 MW
• VT program administrators:– Efficiency Vermont: http://www.efficiencyvermont.com/Index.aspx– Burlington Electric:
https://www.burlingtonelectric.com/page.php?pid=62&name=ee_incentives
31
Vermont Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1000
1100
1200
1300
VT Summer Peak: RSP12 90/10 Forecast (MW)
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 5600
5900
6200
6500
6800
7100
VT Annual Energy: RSP12 Forecast (GWh)
RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF
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