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Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Feeding the World in 2050:Feeding the World in 2050:Challenges for Agriculture
Kostas StamoulisKostas StamoulisDirector
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture 1
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Feeding Everyone ? Number of undernourished
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 2Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Source: SOFI 2009
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Challenges for agriculture in the 21st Century
• Meet the food needs of all 9.2 billion people by 2050Sufficient nutritious affordable– Sufficient, nutritious , affordable
• Meet additional demands from energy markets• Cope with scarce resources and shift to more sustainable production p p
methods• Adapt to the agro-ecological changes related to climate change
C t ib t t Cli t Ch iti ti• Contribute to Climate Change mitigation • Contribute to the protection of livelihoods as agriculture transforms and
markets are integrated– 75% of poor live in rural areas
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 3Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Demand drivers
Population growth:• +2 3 billion in the next 40 years; +3 3 billion over the last 40 years• +2.3 billion in the next 40 years; +3.3 billion over the last 40 years• +2.7 billion in urban areas, significant urbanization• Highest growth in poorest region: Sub-Saharan Africa (+114%)• Lowest growth in East and South East Asia (+14%)• Lowest growth in East and South East Asia (+14%)
Income growth:Income growth:• Overall a richer world by 2050• +2.9% growth per annum for the world as a whole;• higher in developing countries (5 2%); lower in industrial countries• higher in developing countries (5.2%); lower in industrial countries
(1.9%)• Less poverty, but not sure how much less.
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 4Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Population growth and urbanization, 1950-2050
9000
10000
7000
8000
4000
5000
6000
Pop
ulat
ion
(mill
ions
)
2000
3000
4000P
0
1000
2000
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 5Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Source: United Nations Population Division
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Total population Rural population Urban population
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
A Richer World$2004 trillion % per year
140
160
7
8Developing country GDP (left-axis)
100
120
5
6Developing country growth (right‐axis)
60
80
3
4High‐income growth (right‐axis)
20
40
1
2
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 6Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Source: Simulation results with World Bank’s ENVISAGE model, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Food energy intakes, 2000-2050 ( Developing Countries)( Developing Countries)
Milk d d i Other, 5%Milk and dairy products, 3%
Meat and eggs, 7%
Cereals, 56%
Other, 5%Milk and dairy products, 5%
Meat and eggs 10%
Cereals, 46%
Fruits and vegetables,
5%
V t bl
2000Average daily per
capita consumption:
Fruits and vegetable,
6%
eggs, 10%
2050Average daily per
capita consumption:Vegetable
oils, 10%
p p2667 kcal
Vegetable oils, 14%
6% consumption: 3068 kcal
Sugar, 8%
Roots and tubers, 6%
Roots and tubers, 6%
Sugar, 8%
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 7Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Source: FAO
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
The food outlook: Demand Increases but by less than in the past
Sl d i d d th P l ti th l dSlow down in demand growth : Population growth slowdown, “food satiation” and urbanization. • +70% between 2005/07 and 2050 vs. 148 % ( past 40 yrs)• +1,000 million t of cereals annually (from 2,200 million t today)• +200 million t of meats (from 270 million t today)• +300 million t of soybeans (from 215 million t today)• +300 million t of soybeans (from 215 million t today)
Food trade: rapid expansion overall• DC net imports cereal: 125 million t 300 million tp• DC net exports oilseeds: 8 million t 25 million t• DC net exports sugar: 10 million t 20 million t
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 8Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Demand and production of cereals, 2050
3000000
3500000
2500000
3000000
)
1500000
2000000
(000
tons
)
500000
1000000
0World Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America East Asia South Asia Industrial countries
Demand Production
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 9Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Demand Production
Source: FAO
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Demand and production of meat, 2050
500000
350000
400000
450000
s)
200000
250000
300000
(000
tonn
es
50000
100000
150000
0World Sub-Saharan
AfricaLatin America East Asia South Asia Industrial
countries
Demand Production
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 10Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Demand Production
Source: FAO
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Who will produce the food : The global food outlook to 20502050
Baseline: How much more needs to be produced by 2050? (%)
148
70
past
future
Wor
ld Agricultural production
23future
p
velo
ped
97
63
future
past
opin
gD
ev
255
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
past Dev
elo
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 11Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
0 50 100 150 200 250 300Source: Bruinsma (2009)
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
How will we produce it ??
Globally: 91% from increased yields and cropping intensities
In developing countries: 79% from increased yields and cropping
intensityintensity
• Improved seeds
• More efficient input-use (especially water and fertilizer)
Relatively small increase in cultivated area
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 12Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Is there enough crop land?
Huge potential: 4.2 billion ha
1 60 billi h i t d i t 1 67 billi h1.60 billion ha in use today, increase to 1.67 billion ha by 2050
SSBut land reserves unevenly distributed: ample in SSA and LA, exhausted in NENA and SASIA
800 mha covered by forests, 200 mha in protected areas, 60 mha in settlements
75% of land potential is concentrated in 13 developing countries ( Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America)
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 13Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
How much land is available now and in 2050?
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 14Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Source: Schmidhuber (2009); Data from Bruinsma (2009)
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Arable land expansion
600
Thirteen developing countries account for two-thirds of the (gross) land balance
598
400
500
600
188200
300
400
81 94 10472 67 61 62
9058 65 57
0
100
200
Braz
ilCo
ngo,
DR
Ango
laSu
dan
Arge
ntin
aCo
lombi
aBo
livia
Vene
zuel
aMoz
ambi
que
Indo
nesia
Peru
Tanz
ania
Zam
bia
2005 in us2050 in use
potential
0
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 15Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
M se e
Source: Bruinsma (2009)
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Very High Yield Increasing Potential: Africa
6
Exploitable yield gaps are high for maize in Africa
4
5
ctar
e
2
3
Ton
per h
ec
0
1
Ma la w i Eth io p ia N ig e r ia Ug a n d a Ma li ( n 1 6 3 ) Mo z a mb iq u eMa la w i( n = 4 5 6 6 )
Eth io p ia( n = 3 1 0 )
N ig e r ia( n = 2 5 0 1 )
Ug a n d a( n = 4 6 1 )
Ma li ( n = 1 6 3 ) Mo z a mb iq u e( n = 5 0 8 )
A v e r a g e n a tio n a l y ie ld A v e r a g e y ie ld in f a r m d e mo n s tr a tio n s
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 16Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Source: WDR 2008, Sasakawa Africa
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Yield potentials: Large in Developing Countries
SUGAR CANE
70
80
90
100
MAIZE89
10Potential Yield Current YieldS i 3
20
30
40
50
60
70
234567
Yie
ld (t
on/h
a)
0
10
20
Mexico Brazil Thailand India China Pakistan012
USA Argentina China Brazil Mexico India
4 7
RAPE SEED
2
3
3
4
on/h
a)
PALM OIL
4
5
6
7
0
1
1
2
Yiel
d (to
0
1
2
3
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 17Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
0Germany U.K. France China Canada India
0China Malaysia Colombia Indonesia Thailand Nigeria
Source: FAO
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Bridging the Yield Gap: Wheat
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 18Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Iowa (USA) maize yields
16
y = 0.205x - 400.6
y = 0.116x - 221.2R² = 0.731
12
14
a)
Potential yield
R² = 0.639
8
10
in Y
ield
(tlha
Farm yield
4
6Gra
0
2
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 19Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Source: Fischer et al. 2009
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Energy market challenge
Oil prices per barrel versus food price per ton
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 20Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2009
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Fig. World Ethanol Production (000. t.)
160,000USA BRAZIL EU27 CHINA Others
EU27CHINA
120,000
140,000
BRAZIL80,000
100,000
BRAZIL40 000
60,000
80,000
USA
USA
BRAZIL20,000
40,000
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 21Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
USA01998 2008 2018
Source:oecd/fao, 2009
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Fig. World Biodiesel Production (th. t.)
45,000
50,000EU27 USA ARGE BRAZ AUSTRAL MALAYS INDON INDIA OTHERS
INDIA35,000
40,000
ARGE
BRAZ
25,000
30,000
USA
15,000
20,000
EU27
EU27USA
5,000
10,000
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 22Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
02008 2018
Source:oecd/fao, 2009
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Cereals Use for Ethanol
175 7 0
200 8
2008 2018
175 7.0
140
160
180
6
7
104
4.8
100
120
Mill
T.
4
5
%
40
60
80
2
3
0
20
40
0
1
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 23Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
million t. % of Cons (Right Axis)
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Major Vegetable Oils Use for Biodiesel (excl. Jatropha)
35 25
2008 2018
31
20.2
25
3020
11.4
20
25
ill T
.
15
%
13
10
15
M
10
0
5
0
5
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 24Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
0
million t. % of Cons (Right Axis)0
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
H Will thi dditi l d d b t?How Will this additional demand be met?• IIASA (Cereals)
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 25Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Impact of biofuels on consumption, 2020
Cereal food consumption, different scenarios Cereal feed use, different scenarios
Change of cereal use relative to baseline REF-01
0WEO-V1 WEO-V2 TAR-V1 TAR-V3
tons
)
-10
0WEO-V1 WEO-V2 TAR-V1 TAR-V3
tons
)
-10
-5
in 2
020
(mill
ion
Developing40
-30
-20
in 2
020
(mill
ion
Developing
20
-15
cere
al fo
od u
se p g
Developed
-60
-50
-40
cere
al fe
ed u
se p g
Developed
-25
-20
Chan
ge in
-80
-70Ch
ange
in
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 26Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Source: Fischer (2009)
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Climate Change and Agriculture : A two way street
Emissions from agriculture account for roughly 14% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
74% of the emission from74% of the emission from agriculture and most of the technical and economic mitigation potential from g pagriculture are in developing countries
Climate change affects Source: IPCC (2007)Climate change affects agriculture in a number of ways
Source: IPCC (2007)Major impacts of climate change on crop and livestock yields, and forestry production by 2050 based on literature and expert judgement of Chapter 5 Lead Authors. Adaptation is not taken
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 27Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
into account.
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Impact of climate change I
Aggregate impacts of projected climate change on the global food system are relatively small. Shifts within the system unfavourable to y y ypoor countriesAutonomous adaptation to temperature shiftsAt h i h (CO2 f tili ti ) i iti ll iAtmospheric changes (CO2 fertilization) may initially increase productivity of current agricultural land. Climate change, with and without CO2 fertilization will have a clearly
ti i t i th d h lf f thi tnegative impact in the second half of this centuryCC impacts on land vary: Land suitability down in Africa and Latin America but up (initially) elsewhere.p ( y)Changes in frequencies of extreme events (droughts, heat waves, severe storms) are more troublesome in the near term than gradual changes in average conditions.
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 28Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
g g
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Adding Insult to Injury: Climate change and biofuels
Climate change and biofuels: projected range of impact on agricultural prices and risk of hunger in 2030
Food prices, percent change(Price index: 1990=100)
Hunger risk (Additional people at risk of hunger, in millions)(Price index: 1990 100) risk of hunger, in millions)
Factor Lowest projection
Highest projection
Lowest projection Highest projection
p j
Climate change -3% 6% 1 million 35 million
Biofuels 3% 36% 25 million 135 million
Combined effect 2% 33% 9 million 192 million
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 29Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Source: Fischer (2009)
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Conclusions
The world can produce enough food to feed itself by 2050 Picture is complicated by uncertainties regarding biofuels andPicture is complicated by uncertainties regarding biofuels and climate change but basic conclusion remains Nothing is automatic...appropriate policies and investments are
d d t l it i ld t ti lneeded to exploit yield potentialWhere yield potential will be bridged will make a big difference for poverty and hunger reduction Producing enough food globally will not eliminate hunger — access to food must also be increasedImproving the performance of agriculture in developing countries isImproving the performance of agriculture in developing countries is necessary to increase both food production and access to food—basic livelihood for millions
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 30Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Conclusions: Reversing Declines in Public R&D
10Annual growth rates in agricultural R&D spending, 1976-2000
8
cent
age)
4
6
wth
rate
(per
c
2
Ann
ual g
row
-2
0Sub-Saharan
AfricaAsia & Pacific Latin America
& CaribbeanWest Asia &North Africa
Developingcountries
High-incomecountries
A
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 31Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
1976-81 1981-91 1991-2000Source: Beintema and Elliott (2009)
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Conclusions
Use Agriculture as a force of development ( growth, poverty reduction, sustainable resource management)--political willsustainable resource management) political will
Agriculture faces important market and agro-ecological risks and uncertainties : need to address market failures and provide incentives in a
di t tinon-distortionary manner
Increased public investment and appropriate policies are crucial for attracting private investment and supporting essential public servicesg p pp g p• Infrastructure, research, capacity building• Quality of investments is as important as quantity• Focus on resilience and risk management given increasing volatility• Focus on resilience and risk management given increasing volatility• Sound regulatory framework and improved governance of the agrifood
system
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 32Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Muchísimas Gracias
ΕυχαριστωΕυχαριστω
Thank you
Grazie
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 33Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Food security situation: 1.02 billion hungry in 2009
Developed15m
LAC
15mNENA 42m Asia & Pac
642mLAC53m SSA
265m
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 34Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Demand and production of cereals, 2050
3000000
3500000
2500000
3000000
)
1500000
2000000
(000
tons
)
500000
1000000
0World Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America East Asia South Asia Industrial countries
Demand Production
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 35Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Demand Production
Source: FAO
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Demand and production of meat, 2050
500000
350000
400000
450000
s)
200000
250000
300000
(000
tonn
es
50000
100000
150000
0World Sub-Saharan
AfricaLatin America East Asia South Asia Industrial
countries
Demand Production
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 36Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Demand Production
Source: FAO
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Is there enough water?Irrigated land expansion and water use
Area equipped for irrigation
1961/63 2005/07 2050 1961-05 2005-50
million ha % p.a.
World 141 287 318 1 71 0 24World 141 287 318 1.71 0.24
Developed countries 38 68 68 1.57 0.00
Developing countries 103 219 251 1.76 0.31
excl. China and India 47 97 117 1.91 0.42
sub-Saharan Africa 3 6 8 2.07 0.67
Latin America 8 18 24 2 05 0 72Latin America 8 18 24 2.05 0.72
Near East/North Africa 15 29 36 1.86 0.47
South Asia 37 81 86 1.98 0.14
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 37Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
East Asia 40 85 97 1.42 0.30Source: Bruinsma (2009)
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Structural transformation IShare of agriculture in GDP and per-capita GDP (180 countries)
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 38Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Note:GDP per capita refers to 2005 PPP USD. Source: World Development Indicators, 2009.
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Structural transformation
6 0
A declining share of agriculture in GDP, but a high and rising share of agribusiness in GDP in developing countries
Th a ila n d
5 0
6 0
DP
A g r ic u ltu r eA g r ib u s in e s s
Ug a n d a K e n y a Co te d 'Iv o ir e
In d o n e s ia
Th a ila n dMa la y s ia
B r a z il
Ch ile
A r g e n tin a3 0
4 0
ent s
hare
of G
D
A g r ic u lt u r e
A g r ib u s in e s s
Ug a n d a
Nig e r ia
K e n y a B r a z il
1 0
2 0
Perc
e A g r ic u lt u r e
0
G DP p e r c a p o ita , 2 0 0 0 US $ lo g s c a le
1 5 0 8 1 0 03 0 0 01 1 0 04 0 0
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 39Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Source: World Bank, WDR 2008
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Agriculture and poverty : Structural shifts in agriculture and agro-industry
As economies develop, emphasis shifts to value addition risk management quality and safety
industry
addition, risk management, quality and safety characteristics• Trade liberalization and FDI intensifies the spread of p
agribusiness• Gains from scale economies dominate • Knowledge and capital-based agriculture favours larger farm• Knowledge and capital-based agriculture favours larger farm
operators
• Rapid changes Increase risk of smallholder marginalization ( premature exit, urbanization)
Agriculture-development-poverty reduction link is broken
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 40Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Conclusions
Increased efficiency and sustainability of agricultural production systemsproduction systems • R & D on appropriate technologies and practices
Looking beyond short term returns as evaluation criteriag yBuilding in greater use of farmer knowledge
• Improving farmer incentives for sustainable management of i lt l t ( PES)agricultural systems ( PES)
Trade Policies• Flexible and adaptable to the stage of development• Flexible and adaptable to the stage of development• Restore confidence in international food markets
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 41Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Impact of biofuels on prices
Source Estimate Commodity Time period
World Bank (April 2008) 75 % global food index January 2002 – February 2008
IFPRI (May 2008) 39 %
21-22 %
corn
rice & wheat
2000 – 2007
2000 – 2007
OECD-FAO (May 2008) 42 %
34 %
24 %
coarse grains
vegetable oils
wheat
2008 – 2017
2008 – 2017
2008 – 2017
Collins (June 2008) 25-60 %
19-26 %
corn
US retail food
2006 – 2008
2006 – 2008
Glauber (June 2008) 23-31 %
10 %
commodities
l b l f d i d
April 2007 – April 2008
A il 2007 A il 200810 %
4-5 %
global food index
US retail food
April 2007 – April 2008
January – April 2008
CEA (May 2008) 35 %
3 %
corn
global food index
March 2007 – March 2008
March 2007 – March 2008
Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 42Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture
g
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