final presentation (final)

Presents:How Many Americans Died of the Russian Flu?ROBERT LEGGE, JONATHAN WALTON, ELIJAH FIORESPONSOR: PROFESSOR TOM EWING, DEPARTMENT OF HISTORY

KG3 Presents:

2Problem StatementHow many people died of the Russian Flu between December 1889 and January 1890 in the United States?

Russian Flu killed an estimated 1 million worldwide

Spanish Flu killed an estimated 50 million worldwide, infected 500 million

1890 Census is the primary source of data“Acting in concert we ought to knock out the

town”Evening World (NYC)

January 7, 1890

3What is the Census?

4Literature Review Only a handful of articles exist on the Russian Flu.

French study examining age distribution of the epidemic based on census data from 15 countries

Paper by J.F. Brundage investigating case rates and death rates from different strains of influenza in the American Journal of Preventative Medicine

Professor Ewing’s theory is well cited in his exploratory article on the Vital Statistics data.  He illustrates a lack of reported “La Grippe” cases paired with an abundance of other reported diseases such as pneumonia.

5Design CriteriaVisualizations Usefulness Ease of Understanding Run-time Aesthetic Appeal

Mathematical Modeling Historical Validity Timeliness Usability Model Adaptability

6Design Approach1. Statistical Analysis

Compare 1890 Census to 1880 and 1900 Censuses Disease fatality statistics

2. Mathematical Modeling SEIR model

3. Visualizations

Mathematical Modeling

7Based on the Census Data1890 Population 1890 La Grippe Deaths

8Grouping

9Excess Analysis Method

10Bronchitis Deaths Per 100,000

Excess

North East (Group 1)Heartland and Mid-Atlantic Midwest and South

West

11Group-Wise Excess La Grippe Deaths

1890 Population 1890 La Grippe Deaths

12La Grippe Reported vs. Plus Excess

Reported La Grippe Deaths

Estimated Excess Deaths

Total La Grippe Deaths Plus Excess Deaths

Group 1 2,177 9,360 11,537Total US 13,049 9,360 22,409

13La Grippe Reported vs. Plus Excess

1890 La Grippe Deaths 1890 La Grippe Deaths Plus Excess

14Quantitative Results

Reported Death

Estimated Excess Deaths

Bronchitis 21,420 4,702Pneumonia 76,578 3,127Consumption 102,727 4,599Totals 200,725 12,428

1890 La Grippe Deaths

Total Reported 13,049Total Estimated with Excess

25,477

15Validation - Scarlet Fever Scarlet Fever is easily identifiable by a red rash Using Excess Analysis should not return any excess One state out of 46 showed excess Likely an outlier, but no way to be sure Shows that the method works

16Scarlet Fever Deaths Per 100,000North East

Heartland and Mid-Atlantic Midwest and South

West

17Deliverables

18Limitations Data that did exist was not in a usable format

Not enough time to enter available data

Time constraints

Inconsistent reporting across Census data

1890 Census

1880 Census

19Lessons Learned Difficulty of solving a historical problem

Be more realistic

Parallelize tasks better

Communication is key

20Conclusion Our conservative estimate suggests 25,477 deaths, compared to 13,049

reported

11,537 were in Group 1 (North East area)

Unable to verify our results due to the nature of the data

Stepping stone for future analysis as more data is gathered

Thank you to Professor Ewing and Dr. Embree for their mentorship and guidance

Questions