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FinanceBasics
Dr.AmandaThompson
Financeinoneslide
– Whenislater?– Howcertain islater?
InvestorYourCo
Invest$$Now
$$ReturnLater
$Return > $Invest+RiskCompensation
CF Risk
• Whataretheimportantquestionsaninvestor(ormanager)wouldaskinthistransaction?– Howmuch$now?– Howmuch$later?
•Investif….
Howmuch$requirednow??• Easiesttoestimatebecausenearterm,tangibleoperationalneeds
• Drivenby:– Typeofinnovation– Distancetonextmajormilestone
• Howtoestimate:– Beasactivityfocusedasyoucan,whatspecificpeopleandresourcesdoIneed?
– CanIestimatearelationshipbetweenacostandadriverofcosttolinkmyestimatestomyactivities?
Example• Activityexample:Onlineeducationcompany
– Eachpossiblestudentrequiresabouta15minute(0.25hr)chatwithadmissioncounselors– Counselorsareonthephoneabout50%oftheir8hr day.– 5%ofstudentsreachedactuallyenroll
• Howmanystudentscanonecounselorrecruitina5dayweek?– Onphone50%x40hrs =20hrs perweek– Recruit5%ofthe(20hrs perweek/0.25hr perstudent)
=5%x80students/wk =4students/wk percounselor
• Howmanyadmissioncounselorswillyouneedifyoutarget100newstudentspertrimester(16wks)?– 4students/wk x(16wk/tri)=64stud/counselor/tri– 100studenttarget/64=1.5counselors
• Salary=$40,000/yr whatisthecostperenrolleejustforrecruitment?– (1.5coun x$40,000)/(3tri*100students)~$208/enrollee
BuildingaModel
Time 2017 T1 2017T2 2017T3 2018T1
Targetenroll 100 110 125 140
Counselors 1.56 1.72 1.95 2.19
SalaryCost $20,833 $22,916 $26,042 $29,167
Assumptions Salary Conversion Time(hr)/prospective
% phone
AdmissionCounselor $40,000 5% 0.25 50%
StudentTechsupport …
Professors
GeneralAssumptions
Workinghrs/tri 640
64enrolled/counselor
Exercise• Exercise:Thinkandshare– Canyouspecifyyourmajormilestones?– Whatmajoractivitieswillberequiredtoreachthem?– Whataresomeactivityratios?
• 1studentenrolledper10hoursofcounselortime• Howmanyprofessorhoursperstudent?• What%dropout?
– Canyouestimatethecapitalrequiredtogettoeachmilestone?
• Forourexample:Neednow=$3M
Whatisthereturnlater?
Invest Time??
SellCompany/IPO
??
$3MAsk
Whatisthereturnlater?Invest
…
t=¥
MaterialsSUPPLIERS CUSTOMER
MGMT&LABOR
+
-
EquipmentSUPPLIERS
Building yourbusinessmodel
GOV’T
Price>Costs = Profit!!!!
YourCo
INVESTOR
MaterialsSUPPLIERS CUSTOMER
MGMT&LABOR
+
-
EquipmentSUPPLIERS
Thisiseasy…right??
GOV’T
Revenue>Costs = Profit!!!!
MaterialsSUPPLIERS CUSTOMER
LABOR
+
-
EquipmentSUPPLIERS
Thisiseasy…right??
Revenue>Costs = Profit!!!!
$600/machinelasts12months
$6materialsfor$10sale
$2.50laborfor$10sale
25%
100units AprilSales $1,000Costs $850Equipment $50Profitbeforetax $100Tax $25Profitaftertax $75
100unitsat$10each
HappensLAST!!!
GOV’T
Raw WIP
Payables:60days
Inventoryshelf:90days Collection:30days
ReceiveMaterials
ReceivePayments
PayforMaterials
SellProduct
FundingGapcreatesCashFlowProblem!
Example:Manufacturing
Finished
Profitv.CashFlowJanuary February March April
Sales $1,000Costs $850Equipment $50Profitbeforetax $100Tax $25Profitaftertax $75
MaterialsReceived $850
CashInCashOutforCosts $850CashOutforEquipment $600CashFlow -$600 $0 -$850 $0
Profitv.CashFlowJanuary February March April May
Sales $1,000Costs $850Equipment $50Profitbeforetax $100Tax $25Profitaftertax $75
MaterialsReceived $850
CashIn $1,000CashOutforCosts $850CashOutforEquipment $600CashFlow -$600 $0 -$850 $0 $1,000
Profitv.CashFlowJanuary February March April May June July August
Sales $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000Costs $850 $850 $850 $850 $850Equipment $50 $50 $50 $50 $50Profitbeforetax $100 $100 $100 $100 $100Tax $25 $25 $25 $25 $25Profitaftertax $75 $75 $75 $75 $75
MaterialsReceived $850 $850 $850 $850 $850 $850 $850 $850
CashIn $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000CashOutforCosts $850 $850 $850 $850 $850 $850CashOutforEquipment $600CashFlow -$600 $0 -$850 -$850 $150 $150 $150 $150
Butwhatifsalesgrowby20%?
Profitv.CashFlow
-$4,000
$0
$4,000
$8,000
Profitvs.CashFlow
Sales20% Profitaftertax CashFlow
+
-
MaterialsSUPPLIERS CUSTOMER
MGMT&LABOR
+
-
EquipmentSUPPLIERS
Thetimingissue
GOV’T
INVESTORSOperatingstrategyWhattobuy?
FinancingStrategyWhowillpay?
Financefundamentals
INVESTORYourCo
$Invest
$Return
Whattobuy? Whowillpay?
Whyyou?
Price>Costs
CUSTOMER
$
Value
WhathastobetrueabouttherelationbetweenPriceandValue??
Value > Price>Costs??
Financefundamentals
INVESTORYourCo
$Invest
$Return
• Howwouldyoudecideifyouwanttoinvest?– If$Return>$Invest+riskcompensation
• Whattypesofinvestorsarethere??
Debtinvestors
Equityinvestors
Profit
YourCo
DebtFinancing
FundamentalIdea
DEBT
EQUITYRetainedEarnings
EquityFinancing
Interest
Tax
Differenttypesofinvestorsfacedifferentrisks,why???
DIV
Thetsunami• Debtinvestors– don’tcarehowbigthebottleisaslongastheirglasswillbefull
• Equityinvestors– benefitfromthetsunami!!
Debtinvestors
YourCoPmts
PriceLoan time
Interest
Interest&Princ
Interest
Interest
Interest
Interest
Debtinvestors
DefinedpaymentsLegalteeth
Equityinvestors
Pmts
PriceInvest time
SellCompany
Dividend
Div
DividendEquity
investorsYourCo
ResidualpaymentSeatatthetable
Financefundamentals
INVESTORYourCo
$Invest
$Return
Debtinvestors
Equityinvestors
Fundingyourbusiness
INVESTORYourCo
$Invest
$Return
Debtinvestors
Equityinvestors
• Estimate:HowdoyouthinkmostAmericanbusinessesarefunded?– AveragebusinessisfundedbyX%debt
Fundingovertime
RetainedEarnings
Debt
Equity
Fundingoptions
• WhataboutallthosebigNYSElistedfirms?
Yourfundingoptions?
$ Risk Speed Effort Control Cost Other
Grant Rules
Lineofcredit
Unreliable
Debt InterestCFPro/Con
Conv.Debt
Complex
FounderEquity
Highrisk
AngelsEquity
Finding
VentureCapital
Latestage
Othersources
• Franchisorfunding– Loansfor:equipment,thefranchisefee,operationalcostsorany/allofabove
• Leasingassets• Personalsources– Homemortgagesandequity,creditcards,friends/family,yourcash(max75%)
• Governmentloans
SBALoans• Criteria
– Soundbusiness,trustworthycharacter,abilitytorepaywithsomeskininthegame
• Size– Median$130,000- $140,000withhighestaround– Range$5,000(microloans)to$5M– Averageloanaround$371,000
• Help– SBADistrict/BranchOffices– atleastoneineverystate– SBDCs – SmallBusinessDevelopmentCenters;(~900withhigher
educationinstitutions)– WBCs- Women’sBusinessCenters(~100educationalcenters
nationwide)
FinancingSources
time
$
IPO
Venture
Angels
Family
RetainedEarnings
Seed Early Expansion/Late
Idea
InitiateDividends!
Global Mature
• Doyouthinkfundingchoicesdifferbyindustry?INDUSTRY Debt% INDUSTRY Debt%
Maritime Steel
Energy Retail(Food)
Automotive Chemical
Utilities Pharma/Biotech
PaperandForest E-comm/Software
Fundingbyindustry
• Doyouthinkfundingchoicesdifferbyindustry?INDUSTRY Debt% INDUSTRY Debt%
Maritime 63% Steel 31.69%
Energy 60% Retail(Food) 29.25%
Automotive 57% Chemical 21.47%
Utilities 46% Pharma/Biotech 12.5%
PaperandForest 37.45% E-comm/Software 6.02%
MarketAverage 31.81%
Fundingbyindustry
Howdoinvestorsvalueyou?
• FinancialPlanning– Liquidityplan– Salesplan– Costsplan– Profitability
• Allboilsdownto…– Timingandsizeofprofits– Riskandprobabilityofsuccess
Value
InvestmentDecision
PV0 CFt
Invest
Value<InvestmentReject!!
𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = '()(*+-*./0)12(45*)2
time
Value
time
PV0 CFt
Invest
FutureProfits>InvestmentAccept!
InvestmentDecision
𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = '()(*+-*./0)12(45*)2
Howbigabite?• Determinedbyriskandtimingofthe
profitsyouforecast!!
Marketforcapitaliscompetitive,sotheinvestorconsidersthereturntheycouldearninothersimilarlyriskyprojectsandrequiresthatofYOU!
*Youcanfindcostofcapitalbyindustry:Aswath Damodaran NYUSternwebsite
VCrequiredreturns
Financefullcircle
INVESTORYourCo
$Invest
$Return
• Howwillyoudecideifyouwanttoinvest?– Investif$Return>$Invest+riskcompensation
Insummary• Value>Price>Costs– Modeltheseusingassumptionslinkedtotheactivitiesrequired
– Neartermmodelhelpsestimateamountneedednow– Longtermmodelhelpsestimatethevalueofthebusiness
• Costsincludetherequiredreturnpaidtoinvestorsfortakingontheriskofyourbusiness– Debt– Equity– Marketforcapitaliscompetitive
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