food insecurity in southern africa: integrating some of the evidence

Food insecurity in southern Africa: integrating some of the evidence

Presented by Alison Misselhorn at the Workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008

INTRODUCTION

1. Summary of findings from ‘What Drives Food Insecurity in Southern Africa: a meta-analysis of household economy studies”

1. Shifts in the food insecurity context since 2004

1. Some issues from experience

1. Key issues looking ahead

1. Questions to consider

1. FINDINGS OF A META-ANALYSIS

RATIONALE• Southern Africa food insecurity crisis

• Food security largely about livelihoods that are sufficient to provide enough food for individuals and households

OBJECTIVES• Determine the causes or drivers of food

insecurity across southern Africa

• Tap into HEA case studies since these look at ability of people to access food in the face of livelihood shocks and how they manipulate assets to do so

METHODOLOGY• 49 HEA case studies from across southern Africa

National Report on local-level case studies

Local-level case study

METHODOLOGY:

• Development theoretical framework

Human drivers:

• Extent of ecosystem service provision• People’s access to cultivated, wild and

imported foods• Extent and availability of human,

economic, biophysical and social resources

• Economic• Demographic• Socio-political• Biophysical• Cultural

Food Security = Access to sufficient food for a healthy and active lifestyle

• Cultivated food and livestock• Wild food

• Livelihood opportunities and resilience

Biophysical drivers:

• Capacity of ecosystems to provide food, as well as support livelihoods and influence food access:

• Soil• Climate• Terrain/slope• Pests & diseases• Ecosystem integrity

METHODOLOGY• Development of list of 33 theoretical drivers from

literature within theoretical framework

• Simple classification system that would yield information about how drivers of food insecurity functioned

Failure to access own food: 65%

Intensifying vulnerability Livelihood strategies involving trade offs, which feed back to intensify food insecurity and vulnerability:• Reduced expenditure on essential

goods & services • In & out-migration• Sale of assets• Decrease in the number & dietary

variation of meals

Failure to produce own food: 35%

Direct drivers % Climate & env. Stressors 12Poverty 7Increase in food prices 5Failure in land rights/ land access 5Lack of employment 5Lack of education 5Poor market access 4Pests & diseases crops & livestock 4Poor human health 4Low regional cereal availability 4Poor dist. networks & Infrastructure 4In- and out- migration 4Inflation 4Social and political unrest or war 3Sale of assets 3Insufficient agricultural inputs 3Government policies 3TOTAL 80

33 % shock: 67% ongoing

Underlying drivers % Poverty 21Climate & env. Stressors 17Social & political unrest 12Prevalence of HIV/AIDS 5Government policies 5In- and out- migration 4Poor human health 4Sale of assets 4Low regional cereal avail. 4Lack of education 3Population pressure 3TOTAL 81

Food insecurity

Underlying drivers of food insecurity %

Poverty 21Climate & env. Stressors 17Social & political unrest 12Prevalence of HIV/AIDS 5Government policies 5In- and out- migration 4Poor human health 4Sale of assets 4Low regional cereal avail. 4Lack of education 3Population pressure 3

TOTAL 81

50%

Failure to access own food: 65%

Intensifying vulnerability Livelihood strategies involving trade offs, which feed back to intensify food insecurity and vulnerability:• Reduced expenditure on essential

goods & services • In & out-migration• Sale of assets• Decrease in the number & dietary

variation of meals

Failure to produce own food: 35%

Direct drivers % Climate & env. Stressors 12Poverty 7Increase in food prices 5Failure in land rights/ land access 5Lack of employment 5Lack of education 5Poor market access 4Pests & diseases crops & livestock 4Poor human health 4Low regional cereal availability 4Poor dist. networks & Infrastructure 4In- and out- migration 4Inflation 4Social and political unrest or war 3Sale of assets 3Insufficient agricultural inputs 3Government policies 3TOTAL 80

33 % shock: 67% ongoing

Underlying drivers % Poverty 21Climate & env. Stressors 17Social & political unrest 12Prevalence of HIV/AIDS 5Government policies 5In- and out- migration 4Poor human health 4Sale of assets 4Low regional cereal avail. 4Lack of education 3Population pressure 3TOTAL 81

Food insecurity

Direct drivers of food insecurity %

Climate & env. Stressors 12Poverty 7Increase in food prices 5Failure in land rights/ land access 5Lack of employment 5Lack of education 5Poor market access 4Pests & diseases crops & livestock 4Poor human health 4Low regional cereal availability 4Poor dist. networks & Infrastructure 4In- and out- migration 4Inflation 4Social and political unrest or war 3Sale of assets 3Insufficient agricultural inputs 3Government policies 3TOTAL 8033 % shock: 67% ongoing

Failure to access own food: 65%

Intensifying vulnerability Livelihood strategies involving trade offs, which feed back to intensify food insecurity and vulnerability:• Reduced expenditure on essential

goods & services • In & out-migration• Sale of assets• Decrease in the number & dietary

variation of meals

Failure to produce own food: 35%

Direct drivers % Climate & env. Stressors 12Poverty 7Increase in food prices 5Failure in land rights/ land access 5Lack of employment 5Lack of education 5Poor market access 4Pests & diseases crops & livestock 4Poor human health 4Low regional cereal availability 4Poor dist. networks & Infrastructure 4In- and out- migration 4Inflation 4Social and political unrest or war 3Sale of assets 3Insufficient agricultural inputs 3Government policies 3TOTAL 80

33 % shock: 67% ongoing

Underlying drivers % Poverty 21Climate & env. Stressors 17Social & political unrest 12Prevalence of HIV/AIDS 5Government policies 5In- and out- migration 4Poor human health 4Sale of assets 4Low regional cereal avail. 4Lack of education 3Population pressure 3TOTAL 81

Food insecurity

FINDINGS:• Food security driven by chronic, structural

elements in the lives of the communities in the studies

• Variations across communities & contexts: but similar processes:

• Factors determining food ACCESS have more of an impact than those determining AVAILABILITY

1. Cycle of intensifying vulnerability – even so-called coping strategies not necessarily sustainable

FINDINGS:1. Conflict, HIV and diversification strategies can

have severely negative impact on household and community social capital resources

2. SHIFTS IN THE FOOD SECURITY CONTEXT

i) HIV/AIDS:

• Increasing prevalence

• HIV food insecurity

• Magnification of existing problems

• Deep impacts on human, social, political and cultural resources

2. SHIFTS IN THE FOOD SECURITY CONTEXT

ii) CHANGING PROD. & CONSUMPTION PATTERNS:• Rising prices of cereal and other food crops

• In recent years global cereal consumption been consistently less than productiono Urbanisationo Increased demand high value productso Shift to biofuelso Increasing transport costso High transaction costs in southern Africa for

production and export

2. SHIFTS IN THE FOOD SECURITY CONTEXT

iii) CLIMATE CHANGE:

• Considerable spatial variation in impacts, but consensus that this is going to pose tremendous threats to food security in the region

Climate change and food security

FOOD ACCESS e.g.

• Agricultural & vegetation zones - incomes and jobs

• Human health & ability to work

• Changes to livelihoods, food systems & development

processes

NUTRIENT ACCESSe.g.

• Direct effect on the nutrient content of foods

• Direct effect on human health and thus ability to

absorb nutrients

FOOD AVAILABILITYe.g.

• Crop yields• Environmental feedbacks (e.g. use

of marginal lands influencing micro

climates)

3. KEY ISSUES FROM EXPERIENCE

SOME THOUGHTS ON VULNERABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION:

• Concepts of vulnerability and resilience increasingly popular

• Useful in conceptualising a ‘development first’ approach to climate change adaptation

• Vulnerability = exposure and sensitivity to livelihood shocks and stressors

• Vulnerability mapping – Umkhanyakude case study

Climate change+

FOOD SECURITY & WELLBEING

HUNGER & VULNERABLITY

Development challenges

HIV, Malaria, Poverty

Rural population (50%)

Employment agric sector (50%)Natural resource dependence (10%)

Gender ratio (40%)

Age distribution (60%)Demographic structure (20%)

Informal housing (20%)

Orphans (20%)

Water-borne disease risk (20%)

Access to potable water (20%)

Sanitation (10%)

Malnutrition (10%)

Health and security (25%)

Employment (50%)

Poverty (50%)Economic wellbeing (25%)

Road access (20%)

Education (50%)

Schools (15%)

Clinics (15%)

Interconnectivity (20%)

IndicatorsComponents of the UVI

Give us some insight into possible interactions between underlying development-related issues

and ‘superimposed’ factors such as climate change

• Maps still leave us with underlying institutional and social capital related issues which cannot be depicted

BUT

OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS: Experience of 20 food security experts

in South Africa

• Increasing food insecurity

• Unemployment, food price increases, HIV/AIDS, poor quality diets, adverse environmental conditions and poverty

• Importance of social security system for those that cannot access employment opportunities

• Economic growth, but increasing poverty ‘gap’

• Decreasing desire and/or ability to engage in small holder agriculture

OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS - RECOMMENDATIONS

• Range of complimentary strategies loosely described as agrarian reform:

• access to land, water and other natural resources;

• opportunities to diversify their local livelihood strategies;

• access credit and extension services. • interventions to improve the nutritional situation

• Continued bolstering of the social security system

• A central focus was on opportunities and challenges associated with the country’s food security policy framework and its failure to fulfil its potential

5. KEY MESSAGES LOOKING FORWARD

• Local level social capital has a profound effect on livelihood capability and food security

• However, plenty of evidence suggests that social safety nets, such as cash transfers, have a valuable role to play

• Food insecurity, particularly in the rural context, is strongly shaped by development issues, including household incomes

• Policy and higher level institutional arrangements provide an enabling or disabling environment through numerous mechanisms

• In developing world communities in fragile states, there is arguably a degeneration of ‘old’ forms of community social capital occurring concurrently with failures of ‘formal’ and state institutional mechanisms.

6. QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER

• How do we think of small holder agriculture in the context of changing food systems?

• How do we think of small holder agriculture in the context of changing livelihoods and sometimes changing expectations?

• How do we think of small holder agriculture in a way that integrates multiple livelihood dimensions and long term development-based adaptation options?

• How can we support the development of supportive social capital and institutions?

• How can we better collaborate with existing efforts for faster and greater impact? o Adaptation work – e.g. CCAA, OXFAMo Social transfers – e.g. RHVP, UN and Partners

Allianceo Agricultural policy – e.g. CAADPo ..many others