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Food Security in EthiopiaDepth of Issue and Stakeholder Analysis
Prepared By: Catherine Thompson, Jennifer Prenger, Mark MacKew, Michael Plevan,
Sarah Cruikshank, Sean Jellow, Siobhan Keer
Date: Friday September 29th 2011
Wilfrid Laurier University & Balsillie School of International Affairs
FAO Definition
… “food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and healthy life”…
Source: FAO
Presentation Overview
• Depth of Issue• Nutrition• Demographics• Agriculture• Economics• Governance/Rule of Law
• Stakeholder Analysis• Local Level• National Level• International Level
Source: FAO Stats 2005-2007
Nutritional Health: Overview
Prevalence of Undernourishment • 41% of the total Ethiopian population is undernourished
• 31.6 million people • Higher than sub-Saharan average (30%)
Nutritional Health: Overview
Source: FAO Stats 2005-2007; International Food Policy Research Institute 2010
Source: WHO 2005
Nutritional Health: Vulnerable Populations
Women• 26.9% of women are undernourished (2005)• Twice the sub-Saharan average (13.3%)• Affects overall health, including ability to survive
childbirth • Maternal mortality ratio: 470 per 100,000 births• Women’s undernourishment significantly affects the
health of their children
Nutritional Health: Vulnerable Populations
Children• 20% of infants have low birth weight (2009)• Pregnancy and the first two years of life are a vital time
period for nutrition and developmental health• Undernourishment in the first two years can cause
irreversible, long-term damage
Source: UNICEF 2009
Source: WHO 2005
Nutritional Health: Vulnerable Populations
Series10%
1000%
2000%
3000%
4000%
5000%
6000%
<5 Underweight; moderate and severe<5 Stunting; moderate and severe<5 Wasting; moderate and severe
Per
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e
Source: UNICEF 2003-2009
Nutritional Health: Vulnerable Populations
Children• Infant mortality rate: 67 per 1000 live births• Under-5 mortality rate: 106 per 1000 live births• Malnutrition is the underlying cause in 57% of deaths of
children under five years of age
Demographics: Population Distribution
Source: UNICEF 2005-2008
Demographics: HDI and Poverty Index
• Human Development Index: 0.328• Rank: 157th worst out of 169• HDI trends since 2000 have been below sub-Saharan
average every year• In the UNDP Human Poverty Index, Ethiopia is the fourth
poorest country among those surveyed (130th out of 134)
Source: UNDP(a) 2010; UNDP(b) 2007
Demographics: Ethnic groups
Source: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010
Note: Not to Scale
Demographics: Education
• Adult literacy 36% • Combined gross enrolment in primary education (both
sexes) is 49% • Mean years of schooling of adults is 1.5 years• Expected years of schooling of children is 8.3 years
Source: UNDP 2010
Agriculture: Overview• Potential arable land 55 million ha (50% of total land
mass)• 14% of total land mass under crop cultivation• 96 % of farms are smallholder farms
Source: UNDP & ESSP
Agriculture: Importance• Employs 80+ % of Ethiopian labour force• Accounts for 40% of GDP• Average growth rates of 8% annually in past 10 years
Source: UNDP 2011
Agriculture: Main Crops• 93% of total area cultivated in grains, of which 73.4%
cereals• Cash crops account for 4.2 % of total area cultivated.
Major cash crops are coffee and chat
Source: USDA & ESSP
Agriculture: Farmer Profile
Source: Chamberlin and Taffesse
Agriculture: Yields• Cereal production more than doubled from 1997-98 to
2007-08• Mostly due to increased acreage farmed, rather than
increased yields• Cereals yields still lower than Least Developed Countries
average
Source: ESSP
Agriculture: Intensification • 39% of land growing cereals used fertilizers• 4.7 % used improved seeds• 1.1 % irrigated• 14.5% used extension packages
• Result: low yields, vulnerability to poor weather
Source: Chamberlin and Taffesse
Agriculture: Annual Rainfall Averages
Source: National Meteorically Services, 2000
Agriculture: Land Degradation• Costs of lost soil and nutrients estimated at 3% of GDP
annually• 30,000 hectares lost to water erosion• 62,000 hectares of forest land cleared annually
Source: Berry
Economics: Overview
Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010
Economics: Ability to Purchase FoodFactor Value
GDP, Overall $8.6Billion US, 2010
GDP per capita $358 US/year, 2010
Purchasing Power Parity $1,033 US/year, 2010
Consumer Price Index 223 (base year =2005), 2010
Food Price Index 231.8, August 2011
Inflation 8.1% Consumer Rate, 2010
Poverty Line 38.7%, 2006
Source: CIA World Factbook, 2011, FAO 2011 & World Development Indicators, 2010
Economics: Ability to Produce Food• Financing is not easily accessible
• State-run Banks & No foreign banks allowed• Hard to find start-up loans rurally
• Lending Rates – 8% in 2010• Household Consumption Expenditure – 89.4% in 2010• Government Deficiencies
• $4.8B Cash Deficit as of 2005• Trade Deficit, 21% of GDP in 2010
Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010 & World Development Indicators, 2010
Economics: Imports & Exports
Factor Imports Exports
Days 45 in 2010 44 in 2010
Container Costs $2,993US in 2010 $1,898US in 2010
Food (% of Total) 10.9% in 2009 77% in 2009
Trade Deficit Total $4B in 2008 Net 21% in 2010
Sources: World Development Indicators, 2010
Governance/Rule of Law: Power of Government
• One party (EPRDF) dominance since 1994• Extent of central government’s influence is embedded in
society• Ethiopian citizens are denied real access to a democratic
process
Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010 & Freedom in the World Ethiopia, 2011
Governance/Rule of Law: Corruption• Corruption has become a normal way of life for
Ethiopians• “Land of 10%”
• Preferential treatment (land agreements, business contracts, university positions) is given to party members
• Collusion between private sector players and government officials
Sources: 2011 Index of Economic Freedom & Global Corruption Report, 2009
Governance/Rule of Law: Judiciary• Independent but appointed by key political actors• Very rarely review or change government legislature
• Tendency to follow EPDRF party rhetoric • 2009 Proclamation for the Registration and Regulation of
Charities and Societies
Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010; Freedom in the World: Country Report Ethiopia, 2011 & Leicht, 2009
Local Stakeholders
Sources: von Braun and Olofinbayi, 2007 & World Food Program and UNICEF, 2009
Local Stakeholders
• Local business• Significant decrease in sales• Increase in credit-seeking buyers
• Lack of accountability in local government• Local NGOs
• Council of elders • Community grassroots organizations
Sources: World Food Program and UNICEF, 2009& Paarlberg, 2002
National Level Stakeholders
• Federal Government• Federal Ethics Anti-corruption Committee (FEAC)• Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE)• Professional Alliance for Development Ethiopia (PADet)• Civil Society• National Bank of Ethiopia• Universities• Private Business• Epistemic Community
National Level Stakeholders
Federal Government• Issues:
• Handles the majority of its resources inefficiently• Corruption low accountability and transparency• Current practices do not address the World Food
Program’s “Threats to Food Security”• Several development and poverty reduction plans
already implemented that do not produce adequate results
• Has the potential to be a positive contributor or a negative contributor
Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010 & World Food Program
National Level Stakeholders
Federal Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission• Independent federal government body accountable to the Prime Minister• Head office in Addis Ababa• The commissions objectives:
• In cooperation with relevant bodies, to strive to create an aware society where corruption will not be condoned or tolerated by promoting ethics and anti-corruption education;
• In cooperation with relevant bodies, to prevent corruption offences and other improprieties;
• To expose, investigate and prosecute corruption offences and impropriety.
• Potential positive contributor = need to bolster and utilize• Possible venue through which to curtail negative government involvement
Sources: FEAC, 2011
National Level StakeholdersEthiopian Grain Trade Enterprise• Head Office in Addis Ababa, has 10 branch offices and 91 trade centers
throughout the country• Vision:
• “To see [a] stabilized agricultural product market in [the] country and be a leader in export revenue earning.”
• Objectives:• To purchase grain from local farmers in order to sell it primarily in the
export market• To facilitate the stabilization of the market for local farmers and encourage
them to increase production• Issue: not effective in accomplishing its goals on a large scale, possibly due
to lack of resources available to them• Are a potential positive contributor• Not including this agency would be a waste of resources and would create
overlap Source: EGTE, 2011
National Level Stakeholders
Professional Alliance for Development Ethiopia• An indigenous, not-for-profit, non-governmental
humanitarian organization established in 1998 by a group of voluntary development professionals• funded primarily by international organizations• A member of many networks, alliances
• Issue: mission/vision of the agency are commendable, but today is not an abundantly effective agency
• A potential positive contributor• Involving this agency as a primary stakeholder is an
opportunity to revive the organization and utilize its resources
Source: PADet, 2011
National Level StakeholdersCivil Society• National NGOs• Advocacy Groups• Interest Groups• Social Movements• Community Level self-help networks• Councils of Elders• Issues:
• Rudimentary system of organized groups• Ignored and undermined by government• Only accepted mechanism of mediation between government and society are
councils of elders• Potential positive contributors• Some groups show high resiliency • Civil society can reach rural areas that are often left out• Bolstering civil society will produce positive externalities
Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010
International StakeholdersUnited Nations• The UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) 2008-2011 and Ethiopia’s 5 Year
Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) set goals for agricultural and industrial growth. UNDAF then set out priority areas in which it can best help achieve the goals set forth in the GTP.
• Organizations Involved• World Food Program (WFP)
• Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)• Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation Ethiopia• Managing Environmental Resources to Enable Transition (MERET)• School Meals programme
• Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) • Asset development• Education • Climate change adaptation • Small scale irrigation
• UN Environment Programme (UNEP)• Programme in Africa• Strategic Framework for Africa
International Stakeholders
International Financial Institutions• Provide the vast majority of loans, funding and economic assistance for Ethiopian
development programs. These cover programs vary in scope and funding levels. • Organizations Involved
• World Bank, through the International Development Association (IDA) is Ethiopia’s largest provider of official development assistance: has committed over US$7 billion to more than 60 projects in Ethiopia since 1991
• Country Assistance Strategy• Irrigation and Drainage• Agricultural Growth Project• Food Security Project
• World Trade Organization• Observer Status• Currently processing Accession• Working Party Established in2003
• International Monetary Fund• Qualified as a Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) in 2001 and received
$1.3B in debt relief
International StakeholdersInternational Civil Society• In 2008 the Proclamation to Provide for the Registration and Regulation of Charities
and Societies was signed into law. This law discriminates against Ethiopian CSOs that receive more than 1/10 of their income from abroad, by preventing them from working on vital issues of public importance and contributing to national life in Ethiopia. This severely limits domestic NGO activity. Nonetheless, there are many international organizations involved in Ethiopia food security crisis.
• International Food Policy Research Institute • Ethiopian Strategy Support Program in conjunction with Ethiopian Development
Research Institute, CSA and the Ministry of Agriculture to conduct research, develop research capacity, increase informational databases and develop agricultural and food security analysis.
• Global Agriculture and Food Security Programme • Raising Agricultural Productivity• Linking Farmers to markets• Capacity building
• Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)• Connection building and research coordination (such as IFPRI)
International Stakeholders
Other Nations• Since 2003, investment in the agricultural and infrastructure sectors,
particularly from India, China and Saudi Arabia has increased substantially.
Principle Investors• India
• In 2007-2008, investment agreements with reached close to $1 billion• Ethiopia has offered 1.8 million hectares of its farmland to Indian investors
for export to India• May top $10 billion by 2015
• China • Construction of the 300-megawatt Tekeze hydroelectric project in Ethiopia
began in 2002. The $224 million project is the largest African joint venture with China and will
• Last year, Ethiopian exports to China rose by 140%.• Saudi Arabia
• Purchased 100,000 acres of Ethiopian land to produce food for export back to the kingdom.
To Conclude…
Q&A Period
Works CitedAfrican Development Bank. “IMF/ World Bank HIPC Document for Ethiopia.”. African Development
Bank. Online. Accessed September 2011http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Financial-Information/ADB-BD-WP-2002-12-EN-ETHIOPIA-HIPC-APPROVAL-DOCUMENT.PDF
Berry, Leonard. 2003. Land Degradation in Ethiopia: its Extent and Impact. Global Mechanism, UN Convention to Combat Desertification.
Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2010 — Ethiopia Country Report. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2009.
Chamberlin, Jordan and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse. 2009. Crop Production in Ethiopia: A Spatial-Structural Analysis. International Food Policy Research Institute ESSP II/EDRI seminar 16 Mar 2009.
“Buying Farmland Abroad: Outsourcings Third Wave”. The Economist. May 21st 2009. Online. Accessed September 2011. http://www.economist.com/node/13692889?story_id=13692889
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research. “Who We Are”. CGIAR. Online. Accessed September 2011 http://www.cgiar.org/who/index.html
Davison, William. “India Investment in Ethiopia May Double to $10 Billion by 2015, Meles Says” Bloomberg. May 25, 2011. Online. Accessed September 2011. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-25/india-investment-in-ethiopia-may-double-to-10-billion-by-2015-meles-says.html
England, Andrew and Javier Blas. “Arable Land, the new gold rush” Afrik-News. August 20 th, 2008. Online. Accessed September 2011. http://www.afrik-news.com/article14301.html
Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise. 2011. Web. 24 Sept. 2011. http://egtemis.com/.
Food and Agriculture Organization. Statistics Division http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-fs fs-data/ess-fadata/en/ Accessed: Sept. 25, 2011
Works CitedFAO. “Projects in Ethiopia”. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Online.
Accessed Sept 2011 hcoin.fao.org/cms/world/ethiopia/Projects.html.
Freedom House. 'Freedom in the World: Country Report, Ethiopia'. http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=22&country=8036&year=2011 (accessed September 27 2011)
Global Advice Network. 'Business Anti-corruption Portal: Ethiopia Country Profile'. http://www.business-anti-corruption.com/country-profiles/sub-saharan-africa/ethiopia/general-information/ (accessed September 27 2011)
International Food Policy Research Institute, “2010 Global Hunger Index.” http://www.ifpri.org/publication/2010-global-hunger-index. Accessed Sept. 27, 2011
Joachim von Braun, Tolulope Olofinbiyi (2007). Case Study #7-4, "Famine and Food Insecurity in Ethiopia". In: Per Pinstrup-Andersen and Fuzhi Cheng (editors), "Food Policy for Developing Countries: Case Studies." http://cip.cornell.edu/dns.gfs/1200428184
Leicht,Lotte. 'EU should not tolerate Ethiopia's repression'. Published in European Voice. Published online by Human Rights Watch. http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2009/02/18/eu-should-not-tolerate-ethiopias-repression (accessed September 28 2011)
"Major Objectives of the FEAC." The Federal Ethics and Anti-corruption Commission. 2011. Web. 24 Sept. 2011. http://www.feac.gov.et/web_collection/main_objectives_feac_english_starter.htm.
Paarlberg, Robert M., "Governance and Food Security in an Age of Globalization". Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 36, International Food Policy Research Institute. 2002. http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/pubs/2020/dp/2020dp36.pdf
Professional Alliance for Development Ethiopia. 2011. Web. 24 Sept. 2011. http://www.padet.org.et/about_padet/about_padet.html.
Works CitedThe Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal. '2011 Index of Economic Freedom.'
http://www.heritage.org/index/Country/Ethiopia (accessed September 28 2011).
Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum, Paul Dorosh and Sinafikeh Asrat. 2011. Crop Production in Ethiopia: Regional Patterns and Trends. Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II (ESSP II) ESSP II Working Paper No. 0016 March 2011 Int’l Food Policy Research Institute.
Tefera, Derbrew. “Ethiopia offers India Farmland for investment” The Economic Times. Feb 2, 2011. Online. Accessed September 2011. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-02-02/news/28432446_1_indian-investors-cultivable-land-indian-exports.
Transparency International. 'Global Corruption Report 2009: Africa and the Middle East'. 2009. http://www.transparency.org/publications/gcr/gcr_2009#6.1
United Nations Development Programme. “Ethiopian Crop Yields to Get Boost From UNDP, Gates Foundation.” News release, 21 July, 2011.
UNICEF, “Statistics.” http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/ethiopia_statistics.html Accessed Sept. 26, 2011
UNDP, “Ethiopia: Country profile of human development indicators.” http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/ETH.html Accessed Sept. 28, 2011
UNDP, “Human Development Report 2009.” http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/indicators/96.html Accessed Sept. 27, 2011
U.S. Department of Agriculture. Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, Foreign Agricultural Service http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad2/highlights/2002/10/ethiopia/baseline/Eth_Crop_Production.htm
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