food security in the coral triangle of the pacific countries … · 2017. 10. 12. · the supply of...
Post on 04-Sep-2020
1 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
• FisheriesintheCoralTriangleofthePacificcountriesarefacingchangingclimaticconditionsandongoingenvironmentaldegradation,whichthreatenfoodsecurityandlivelihoods.
• ThestudyidentifiedtheimpactsofclimatechangeonthefisheriessectorsofFiji,SolomonIslands,Timor-Leste,andVanuatu,andevaluatedthepotentialofthreefisheriesdevelopmentstrategiestoimprovefoodsecurity.
• Modelingresultsindicatedsubstantialeconomicgainsandimprovedfoodsecuritywiththeadoptionofthesestrategies:aquacultureexpansion,low-costinshorefish-aggregatingdeviceutilization,andimprovednaturalresourcesmanagement(includingmarine-protectedareas).
• Theresearchfindingscaninformfisheriesandconservationpolicydevelopmentthatistailoredtoeachcountry’sneeds.
IntroductIonThehealthandlivelihoodsofruralcommunities,especiallycoastalcommunitiesthatrelyonfishingforsubsistenceandincome,faceseriousrisks.Theongoingdegradationofcoastalecosystems,overharvestingofvaluablespecies,andclimatechange(includingmoreextremeweatherevents,risingsealevels,increasingseasurfacetemperatures,andoceanacidification)areloweringtheproductionoffish,whichistheregion’sprimarysourceofprotein.
In2010,theAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)launchedaregionaltechnicalassistance(TA)projectinresponsetoconcernsraisedbyfivePacificdevelopingmembercountriesthatliewithinorontheborderoftheCoralTriangle—Fiji,PapuaNewGuinea,SolomonIslands,Timor-Leste,andVanuatu(collectivelycalledtheCoralTriangleofthePacific)—regardingmanagementoftheircoastalandmarineresources.TheTAprojectaimedtohelpthecountriesaddresstheurgentthreatsfacingtheseresourcesand,atthesametime,improvefoodsecurity,inlinewiththeobjectivesoftheCoralTriangleInitiativeonCoralReefs,FisheriesandFoodSecurity.1
Aspartoftheproject,from2011to2013,theInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstituteconductedaresearchstudyonClimate Change and Development Strategies for the Coastal Communities of the Pacific Coral Triangle Countriesinfourcountries—Fiji,SolomonIslands,Timor-Leste,andVanuatu.2Thisbriefpresentsthestudy’sfindings.
ADBBRIEFSno. 84
OCTOBER 2017
KEY PoIntS Food Security in the coral triangle of the Pacific countries: Prospects of Fisheries development Strategies
ISBN978-92-9257-937-1(Print)ISBN978-92-9257-938-8(e-ISBN)ISSN2071-7202(Print)ISSN2218-2675(e-ISSN)PublicationStockNo.BRF178996-2DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF178996-2
Olly NorojonoDirectorTransport,EnergyandNaturalResourcesDivisionPacificDepartmentonorojono@adb.org
Deborah RobertsonNaturalResourcesSpecialistPacificDepartmentdrobertson@adb.org
1 ADB.2010.Technical Assistance for Strengthening Coastal and Marine Resources Management in the Coral Triangle of the Pacific (Phase 2). Manila(TA7753-REG).
2 PapuaNewGuineawasexcludedduetothedelayininceptionactivitiesandconcernsaboutsecurity.
BasedonthereportpreparedbyMadanM.Dey,MarkW.Rosegrant,andRowenaA.Valmonte-SantosoftheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute,Washington,DC.TheresearchwasconductedundertheADBandGlobalEnvironmentFacilityinitiativeonStrengtheningCoastalandMarineResourcesManagementintheCoralTriangleofthePacific(Phase2).Forfurtherdetails,visittheADBwebsitefortheTAconsultant’sreport(https://www.adb.org/projects/documents/ta-7753-prospects-adaptation-strategies-fisheries-sector-cc-pacific-coral-triangle-tacr).Alsorefertohttp://blogs.adb.org/blog/securing-sustainable-fishing-pacific-coral-triangle-countriesandhttp://ctknetwork.org/catch-of-the-week/securing-sustainable-fishing-in-the-pacific-coral-triangle-countries/.
ADBBRIEFSNO.84
rESEarch objEctIvEThegoalofthestudywastoassesstheabilityofthreefisheriesdevelopmentstrategies:aquacultureexpansion,low-costinshorefish-aggregatingdevice(FAD)3utilization,andimprovednaturalresourcesmanagement(NRM),toaddressthegrowingfoodsecurityconcernsinthesefourcountriesinthefaceofclimatechange.
rESEarch MEthodTheresearchfollowedthreemainsteps,followedbyapolicyreviewandaqualitativeassessment.Becausethemethodologywasdesignedtoovercomelimitationsinthedata,itmaybeusefultoothersmallislanddevelopingstatesfacingsimilarinformationgaps.
1. develop the baseline models.Recognizingthelimitedscienceonfisheriesandbiological/physicalresponsestoclimatechangeinthecountriesstudied,thisstudydevelopedandusedamarketfishsupply–demandmodel.4
Eachcountry’sbaselinemodelincludeddataonfishproduction(afunctionofpricesandsupplyshiftersliketechnologyandclimatechange)andconsumption(afunctionofprices,incomegrowth,andpopulationgrowth);incomegrowth;prices;technologicalchange;and
climatechange.Alldomesticfisheries(notcatchbyforeignfishingfleets)wereincludedandgroupedintosubsectors.Theanalysisconsideredthreetimeperiods:current,mediumterm(2035),andlongterm(2050).
2. collect and construct data sets. Baselinedataondemand,supply,andpricesforfishtypeswerecollectedfromsecondarysourcesandsurveysoflocalmarkets,whileestimatesofdemandandsupplyelasticity(responsivenesstochangesinprices)weredevelopedthroughexpertopinionsurveysandfocusgroupdiscussions.5
3. analyze the impacts of fisheries development strategies. The threefisheriesdevelopmentstrategiesandestimatesoftheirimpactswereidentifiedthroughstakeholderdiscussions,expertopinionsurveys,andfocusgroupdiscussions.Thestrategieswerethenrunthrougheachcountrymodelsothattheirimpactscouldbecomparedwiththebaselinescenariosandwitheachother.
FIndIngS
Fisheries under baseline conditions to 2050—more demand and less supply
Underbaselineconditions,itislikelythat,acrossallfourcountries,thedemand for fish and seafood will increase substantially duetorisingpercapitaincomeandpopulation,while coastal fish supply will likely decreaseduetotheongoingdegradationofthemarineenvironmentandtheimpactsofclimatechange.Thiswillmostimpactsubsistenceandsmall-scalefishersandtheircommunitiesthatrelyoncoastalfisheriesforfoodandincome.Otherlikelyscenariosshowkeydifferencesbetweenthefourcountries(mainlyduetotheprevailingfishtraderegimesindifferentcountries,therelativeimportanceofvarioussectorsinfishproductionandconsumption,andthebehaviorsofproducersandconsumers).
the supply of tuna and other oceanic fish from the domestic fishing industry will increase over time in Fiji and vanuatu,butwillremainaboutthesameinSolomonIslandsanddecreaseovertimeinTimor-Leste.Thereasonisthat,inthefuture,concentrationsofskipjackandbigeyetunaarelikelytomovefurtherintotheeasternPacificOceanbecauseofclimatechange,whilethebiomassofadulttunawilldecreaseinthewestandcentralPacificOcean.6
3 AFADisapermanent,semipermanent,ortemporarystructureordevicemadefromanymaterialandusedtolurefish.Seehttp://www.fao.org/fishery/equipment/fad/en.
4 DetailsofthemethodologyappliedinthisstudyarediscussedinM.M.Dey,M.W.Rosegrant,K.Gosh,O.L.Chen,andR.A.Valmonte-Santos.2016.AnalysisoftheEconomicImpactofClimateChangeandClimateChangeAdaptationStrategiesforFisheriesSectorinPacificCoralTriangleCountries:Model,EstimationStrategy,andBaselineResults.Marine Policy. 67.pp.156–163.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.12.011.
5 Therespondentsfromthesurveysandfocusgroupdiscussionsweremembersofselectedfishingcommunities(fishersandfishfarmers)andlocalmarketsinSuvaandRaProvinceinFiji;HoniaraandIsabelprovinceinSolomonIslands;Dili,AtauroIsland,andLiquicadistrictinTimor-Leste;andPortVila,Siviri,andEspirituSantoIslandsinVanuatu;village/district/provincialandnationalgovernments;academia;nongovernmentorganizations;regionalandinternationalresearchagencies;andlocalclimatechange,economic,fisheries,andenvironmentalexperts.
6 Themodelusedconservativeestimatesoftheimpactsofclimatechangeontunacatch,usingtheSpatialEcosystemandPopulationDynamicsModelasareference.(FordetailsoftheSpatialEcosystemandPopulationDynamicsModel,seehttp://www.spc.int/OceanFish/en/ofpsection/ema/ecosystem-a-multispecies-modelling/seapodym/148-seapodym).Projectionsusedinthemodelarewithinsustainablelimits.
SeagrassfarminginAtauroIsland,Timor-Leste.
2
FoodSecurityintheCoralTriangleofthePacificCountries
PilotfieldtesttilapiapondinNapaukvillage,Luganvilledistrict,Sanmaprovince,SantoIsland,Vanuatu.
the real prices of different fish groups are expected to increase over time in vanuatu, butforothercountriestherealprices,exceptthatoftunainFijiandthatofcoastalfinfishinTimor-Leste,arelikelytobeheldincheckduetoincreasedimports.
Per capita consumption of domestically produced fish will likely decrease. Overtime,fishexportsfromthefourcountriesareexpectedtodecreaseandfishimportsareexpectedtoincrease.Thiswillleadtoadeclineinpercapitaconsumptionofdomesticallyproducedfish,whichhasseriousnegativefoodsecurityimplicationsforthesecountries.
Fiji and Solomon Islands may become net importers of fish, withdomesticdemand(duetopopulationgrowthandhighpercapitaincomes)likelytosurpassdomesticsupply.InmanyPacificislandcountries,domesticpricesofsomefishspeciesarehigherthantheirworldmarketprices.Thereisariskthatforeigncountriesthatareabletoproducefisheriesandaquacultureproductsmoreefficientlymaytake
advantageofthissituationofhigherfishpricesandexporttheircheaperseafoodproductstothePacificislands.
Fisheries development strategies: country-specific positive impacts
Small-scale and subsistence fishers will most benefit from improved natural resources management. Acrossthefourcountries,improvedNRM(suchasMPAsandlocallymanagedmarineareas)willincreasecoastalfishproduction(orhaltitsdecline)andreducecoastalfishprices(orhaltitsincrease).Thiswillbenefitsmall-scaleandsubsistencefisheries,ruralcommunities,andpoorerhouseholdswhodependoncoastalfisheriesfortheirfoodsupplyandlivelihoods.NRMislikelytohavethehighestpositiveimpactinFiji.ThisisbecauseNRMwillhaltthedeclineincoastalfisheries,furtherexpandproductionofoceanicfisheries,andprovideaneteconomicgainhigherthanaquaculturealone.
3
ADBBRIEFSNO.84
FocusgroupdiscussionswithdifferentstakeholdersinNamuaimadavillage,Navolaudistrict,Raprovince,Fiji.
communities in the coral triangle of the Pacific countries already feel the impacts of food insecurity.
Focusgroupdiscussionsrevealedthatfishersarefindingitdifficulttocatchenoughfishfromcoastalareas,eventhoughtheyarespendingmoretimefishing.Theyarelosingincomeduetobeingunabletofishduringcyclones,andarefurtherconstrainedbybeingunabletoaccessfishindeeperwatersduetotheirtraditionalfishinggearandboatcapacity.Vegetablegardensarebeingdestroyedbycyclonesandfloodingand,whenfoodisavailable,itisdifficulttoaccessbecauseoffloodsorlackoftransportation.
Foodinsecurityisalsoaffectingcommunityhealthandchildren’seducation.Participantsreportedthat(i)thehealthoffamilymembersispoorasaresultofinsufficientfood,imbalanceddiets,anddeterioratinghygiene;(ii)dependenceontraditionalmedicationisrisingasmoneyusuallyspentonmedicinesisbeingspentonfood;and(iii)spendingmoneyonchildren’seducationisoflowerprioritycomparedwithfoodnutritionandsecurity.Fishersarealsonowspendinglesstimewiththeirfamiliesbecausetheyneedtospendmoretimefishing.
4
aquaculture development will contribute to food security, enhancedlivelihoods,andforeignexchangeearnings.While,generally,itisunlikelythataquaculturealonecouldmeetthegrowingdemandforfishinthesecountries,themodelfoundthataquacultureislikelytohaveahighpositiveimpactinVanuatu.ForTimor-Leste,aquacultureisexpectedtoaffectfreshwatersupplysubstantially(abouta150%increasein2050fromalowbasevalue).Aquaculturedevelopmentwillhaveasignificantpositiveimpactonthecountry’sfishconsumptionbecausetherealpriceoffreshwaterfishisexpectedtodecreaseovertimegivenitshighsupply.
deployment of low-cost inshore fish-aggregating devices is likely to have the highest positive impact on oceanic fish supply in Solomon Islands,decreasingthepriceoftunaandsubstantiallyenhancingthecountry’sfoodsecurity.Low-costinshoreFADsareaccessibletosubsistenceandsmall-scalefishers,therebyincreasingthedomesticproductionofoceanicfish.
returns on investments of fisheries development strategies are very high. Theeconomicwelfareanalysis,conductedbasedonmodelingresults,showthatthenationalneteconomicgainsduetothesestrategiesaresubstantial.Inmostcases,theyearlynetbenefitismorethan10–20-foldhigherthantherequiredannualinvestmentcost.Forexample,theestimatedyearlyneteconomicgainfrominvestmentinNRMinFijiisabout100timesoftheannualinvestmentcostand,inSolomonIslands,ayearlyinvestmentofabout$230,000onFADsisprojectedtogenerateanannualincomeofmorethan$5millionin2035.
Foreachcountry,thefollowingstrategiesshowthehighestreturnsoninvestmentin2050:
• Fiji:aquacultureplusNRM,followedbyNRM• SolomonIslands:FADs• Vanuatu:aquacultureplusNRMplusFADs• Timor-Leste:aquaculture,followedbyNRM
FoodSecurityintheCoralTriangleofthePacificCountries
Figure 1: national Level Economic gains resulting from climate change adaptation Strategies, 2035 and 2050
US$
mill
ion
25
20
15
10
5
-2035
FijiSolomon Islands
Timor-LesteVanuatu
AQ = aquacultureNRM = natural resources managementFAD = fish-aggregating device
AQ AQ NRM NRM AQ+NRM AQ+NRM FADs FADs NRM + FADs NRM + FADs AQ + NRM + FADs
AQ + NRM + FADs
2050 2035 2050 2035 2050 2035 2050 2035 2050 2035 2050
Source:InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute.2016.Prospects and Adaptation Strategies for the Fisheries Sector under Climate Change in Pacific Coral Triangle Countries.Washington,DC.
concLuSIonSWithrisingpopulationandincomes,thedemandforfishisexpectedtoincreasesubstantiallyby2050,whiledomesticfishsupplyisprojectedtoslowduetoclimatechange,environmentaldegradation,andotherconstraints.Undercurrentconditions,Fiji,Timor-Leste,SolomonIslands,andVanuatuwillsufferfragilefoodsecurityconditionsinthefuture.Increasingthedomesticsupplyoffishinthesecountrieswillrequirereversingthenegativetrendsofcoastalfisheriesandincreasingthesupplyfromoceanicandfreshwatersystems.
Thestudyshowedthattheimpactsonfoodsecurityofeachfisheriesdevelopmentstrategyaregenerallypositiveandsignificant,butdifferbetweenfisheries,ecosystems,andcountries.Italsoshowedthatcurrentuseofthestrategiesistoosmalltohavemeaningfulimpactsonfoodsecurityinthefuture.Toupscalestrategyuse,itwillbeimportanttounderstandthespecificenablingconditionsneededineachcountry,andatwhatleveleachstrategywouldbeoptimalforfoodsecurityandsustainableinthelongterm.
Anumberofotheractionswerehighlightedinthestudythatcouldhelptoimprovefoodsecurityfromthefisheriessectorandthatwarrantfurtherconsideration.Theseactionsincludeprovidingbetterprocessing,storage,andtransportinfrastructureinsomecountries,andcreatingbetterdomesticaccesstothetunasupplythatisexpectedtoincreasewithclimatechange.
adb’s response. ADB’sregionaltechnicalassistanceprojectcontinuestoassisttheCoralTriangleofthePacificcountriestointroducemoreeffectivemanagementofcoastalandmarineresources,especiallythoseassociatedwithcoralreefecosystems.Thisistomaintaintheirproductivityoveralongerperiodoftime,whilebuildingtheirresiliencetoclimatechangeimpactsandhuman-inducedenvironmentalthreats.Theprojecthassupportedcapacity-buildingactivitiesonintegratedcoastalresourcesmanagement,includingonlegalandpolicyreforms.
Forinstance,inSolomonIslands,theprojectfacilitatedthedevelopmentandapprovaloftheMalaitaProvincialFisheriesOrdinance.GazettedinMay2015,theordinancesetsrulesforfisheriesmanagementanddevelopmentinMalaita,includingapermitssystem,developmentofcommunityfisheriesmanagementplans,andenforcement.ItprovidesfortheestablishmentofaFisheriesAdvisoryCommitteetoguidetheprovincialgovernmentonimplementationoftheordinance.TheprojectalsofacilitatedtheestablishmentoftwoMPAsinAtauroandBatugadeinTimor-Leste.Theirboundaries,settingupofanaquaticnaturalreserve,andregulatingtheirmanagementarecoveredinaministerialdiplomaissuedbytheMinistryofAgricultureandFisheriesinFebruary2015.
Climatechangeadaptationforresilience-buildinghasbeenemphasizedthroughtheimplementationofprojectactivities.Theapplicationoffish-aggregatingdevices,developmentofcommunity-basedresourcemanagementplans,andeffectivemanagementofMPAsarecentralintheongoingimplementationofactivitiesundertheproject.
5
ADBBRIEFSNO.84
FIjI caSE StudYFiji’sfisheriessectorcontributestoboththecountry’sfoodsecurityandgrossdomesticproduct.Fisheriescanbegroupedintosixmaintypes:coastalsubsistencefishing,coastalcommercialfishing,offshorelocallybasedfishing,offshoreforeign-basedfishing,freshwaterfishing,andaquaculture.Fishproductionandvaluearehighestinthecoastalareas,andsmall-scaleandsubsistencefishersareheavilydependentonthecoastalfisheriesforfoodandincome.In2000–2008,about1.7%ofthetotalgrossdomesticproductwassupportedbythefisheriessector(Gillett2009;andAhmedetal2011).
FisheriesdevelopmentstrategiesinFijiincludeNRMpractices(e.g.,MPAs,locallymanagedmarineareas,andtheridge-to-reefconcept);alternativelivelihooddevelopment;enforcementoffisheriesregulations;low-costinshoreFADs;andaquaculture.Themodelconsideredthreescenarios:(1)aquaculture,(2)NRM(specificallyMPAs,locallymanagedmarineareas,andFADs),and(3)acombinationofaquacultureandNRM.
What is going to happen to Fiji’s fisheries under baseline conditions?
Themodelprojectsthefollowinglikelysituationsto2050:
• Overall,domesticproductionwillgrowatanegligiblerate,whiledomesticdemandwillrise(withhigher-incomegrowthbeingaccompaniedbyahigherriseindemand).
• Oceanicproductionwillgrowtosomeextentandsupplyfromfreshwaterareaswillexpandsubstantially,thoughitssharewillremainsmall.
• Coastalproductionwilldeclineovertimeduetoclimatechangeandotherimpacts,whilethedemandforcoastalfishwillincrease
further.Thishasseriousfoodsecurityimplications,giventhatpoorerhouseholdsmostlyrelyoncoastalfinfishfortheirfishconsumptionneeds.
can fisheries development strategies help to improve food security?
Yes.Themodelshowedthefollowingscenariosarelikelywiththefisheriesdevelopmentstrategies:
• Pricesoffreshwaterfinfishandfreshwaterinvertebratesareprojectedtodecreasewiththeadoptionofaquaculturetechnologies.Giventhatmostofthefreshwaterproductionisfordomesticconsumption,thisislikelytoimprovefoodsecurity.
• TheadoptionofvariousNRMstrategies(suchasMPAs)isexpectedtohaltproductiondeclinesincoastalfisheries,andtofurtherexpandtheproductionofoceanicfisheries.Thisisimportantforfoodsecuritybecausesmall-scaleandsubsistencefishersdependonthesecoastalfisheries.
What other impacts might the fisheries development strategies have?
• Indirectly,increasedincomefromaquaculturewillincreasetunacatch,resultinginhigherpricesandmarketdemandfortunaandotheroceanicfish.
• TheadoptionofNRMadaptationstrategieswillreduceFiji’simportoffish/seafoodsubstantially,whichwilllikelyreducetheburdenonforeignexchange.
• Thenationalleveleconomicgainsfromtheadoptionofthestrategieswillbesubstantial.Theywerecalculatedannuallyat$2.6millionforaquaculture,$14.5millionforNRM,and$16.2millionforaquacultureplusNRM(in2009USdollarsconstantprice)in2050.
Figure F-1: Projected Production and consumption of different Fish groups in Fiji for 2035 and 2050 under two baseline Scenarios, with 1% and 2% annual growth rates of real Per capita Income.
Freshwater consumption
Freshwater production
Coastal production
Oceanic production
Coastal consumption
Oceanic consumption
0 10 20 30 40mt (x 1,000)
2050 - high2035 - high2050 - medium
2035 - medium2009
50 60 70 80
Source:InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute.2016.Prospects and Adaptation Strategies for the Fisheries Sector under Climate Change in Pacific Coral Triangle Countries. Washington,DC.
6
FoodSecurityintheCoralTriangleofthePacificCountries
SoLoMon ISLandS caSE StudYFisheriesresourcesplayamajorroleinthenationaleconomyandtofoodsecurityinSolomonIslands.Therearefourbroadcategoriesoffisheries:industrialoffshorecapture(foreign-basedandlocallyordomestic-based),coastalcapture(subsistenceandcommercial),freshwatercapture,andaquaculture.Foreignfleetsdominateoffshorecapturefisheries,andtheircatchesareprimarilyforexportmarkets.Coastalcapturefisheriesarethemostimportantsourceoffishsupplyfordomesticconsumptioninthecountry,andcoastalsubsistencefisheriesareintegraltofoodsecurityandlivelihoodoftheruralpopulationofSolomonIslands.SolomonIslandsiscurrentlyimplementingthreemainfisheriesdevelopmentstrategies,andtheywereconsideredinthemodelsasfollows:(1)aquaculture;(2)NRMapproaches,particularlyMPAs;and(3)low-costinshoreFADs.
What is going to happen to Solomon Island’s fisheries under baseline conditions?
Themodelprojectsthefollowinglikelysituationsto2050:
• Overall,thedomesticsupplyoffishwillincreasemarginally.Therewillbesomeincreaseinsupplyfromoceanicandfreshwatersystems,butsupplyfromcoastalfisheries(mostimportantfordomesticconsumptionandforsubsistencefishers)islikelytodecreaseovertime,resultinginreducedfoodsecurity.
• Demandfordifferenttypesoffishwillincreaseasaresultofanincreaseinpopulationandincomes,andamajorpartofthisincreaseddemandwillbeforoceanicspeciessuchastuna.
• Totaldemandislikelytosurpasstotaldomesticfishproduction.IfSolomonIslandscannotcatchmoreoceanicfishthanotherwiseharvestedbyforeignvessels,thecountrymayhavetoimportfishinlargevolumestomeettheprojecteddemand.
can fisheries development strategies help to improve food security?
Yes.Theuseoflow-costinshoreFADs,inparticular,isexpectedtosignificantlyenhancethecountry’sfisherieseconomyandfoodsecurity.ThemodelfoundthatemployingtheseFADswilldecreasetherealpriceoftunain2035and2050and,evenwithhighergrowthinpercapitaincome,reducetunapricesby2050.ThisisimportantgiventhehighcontributionoftunatofishandseafoodconsumptioninSolomonIslands.
Low-costinshoreFADsarealsoexpectedtosignificantlyreducethecountry’slikelydependenceonfishimports,asareNRMstrategiesbecauseoftheirpositiveeffectonproduction.TheroleofFADswillbeevenmoreimportantifthecountry’spercapitarealincomerisesatafasterrate.
ThemodelalsoprojectsthattheadoptionofNRMstrategieswilllikelyhaveapositiveimpactoncoastalfishsupply,andwillhalttheriseofcoastalfinfishprices.However,FADsmayhaveanegativeimpactoncoastalfishsupplybecauseofthesubstitutioneffectbetweencoastalandoceanfishspecies.Thiswouldnegativelyaffectsubsistencefishers.
Aquaculturedevelopmentwillalsoreducetherealpriceofcoastalinvertebrates,andincreaseconsumptionoffreshwaterfishin2035and2050.Thisimpactwillincreaseovertimewithincome.
What other impacts might the fisheries development strategies have?
Thenationallevelneteconomicgainsfromthestrategieswillbesubstantial.Theywerecalculatedannuallyat$0.37millionforaquaculture,$10.08millionforFADs,and$2.57millionforNRMstrategies(in2009USdollarsconstantprice)in2050.
Figure S-1: Projected Production and consumption of different Fish groups in Solomon Islands for 2035 and 2050 under two baseline Scenarios, with 2% and 3% annual growth rates of real Per capita Income
Freshwater consumption
Freshwater production
Coastal production
Oceanic production
Coastal consumption
Oceanic consumption
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000mt (x 10,000)
2050 - high2035 - high2050 - medium
2035 - medium2006-2009
2,500 3,000 3,500
Source:InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute.2016.Prospects and Adaptation Strategies for the Fisheries Sector under Climate Change in Pacific Coral Triangle Countries. Washington,DC.
7
ADBBRIEFSNO.84
tIMor-LEStE caSE StudY InformationonthefisheriessectorofTimor-Lesteisverylimitedasthecountryonlygaineditsindependencein2002and,priortothis,mostinformationanddatawerehighlyaggregatedfromIndonesia.Assuch,assessingTimor-Leste’sfisheriessectorisdifficult.
UnlikeFiji,SolomonIslands,andVanuatu,Timor-Lestehasonlytwoislandsandasmallerexclusiveeconomiczoneof72,000squarekilometers.Thecountry’smostdominantfishcategoryiscoastalfisheriesforsmall-scalefishingactivities,duetotheabsenceofdomesticcommercialfishingvesselsexploringoffshorefishinggrounds.In2008,Timor-Leste’sfisheriessectoremployed7,600people.Themodelconsideredthreefisheriesdevelopmentstrategies:(1)aquaculture,(2)NRMwithemphasisonMPA,and(3)acombinationofaquacultureplusNRM.
What is going to happen to timor-Leste’s fisheries under baseline conditions?
Themodelprojectsthefollowinglikelysituationsto2050:
• Totalfishproductionwillincreaseonlymarginally,whiletotalfishdemandwillrisesubstantiallyduetogrowthinpopulationandincomes.Thisimpliesthatthecountrywillhavetoimportmorefishtofillthisincreasingdeficitindomesticfishsupply.
• Fishsuppliesfromoceanicandcoastalecosystemsarelikelytodecreaseduring2010–2050.Onlyfreshwaterecosystemswillbeabletosupplymorefishinthefuture.Giventhatoceanicandcoastalfisheriessupplyabout94%ofcurrentfishconsumptioninTimor-Leste,thisprojectedfishsupplyscenariohasseriousfoodsecurityimplicationsforthecountry.
can fisheries development strategies help to improve food security?
• NRMislikelytoincreasecoastalandfreshwaterfishproduction,andtheaquaculturedevelopmentstrategyisexpectedtoincreasefreshwaterfishproductionbyabout100%in2035andbyabout150%in2050.
• Aquaculturedevelopmentisexpectedtoreducetherealpriceoffreshwaterfish,butraisetherealpriceofotherfishcategories,mainlybecauseofthehigherincomesassociatedwithaquaculturedevelopment.
• Aquaculturegrowthwillincreaseincome,resultinginhigherdemandforcoastalfishandseafoodandlowerdemandforfreshwaterfish.TheseeffectstogethermayneutralizesomepositiveimpactsofthecombinedaquacultureplusNRMstrategyonfreshwaterproduction.Giventhatthefreshwaterecosystemsuppliesfishfordomesticconsumptiononly,theaquacultureplusNRMstrategymaynothaveanyadditiveeffectonfreshwaterfishconsumption.
• OnlyaquaculturedevelopmentwillhaveanysignificantandpositiveimpactonfishconsumptioninTimor-Leste,mainlythroughincreasedconsumptionoffreshwaterfish.TheNRMstrategyisnotexpectedtohaveasignificantimpactonfishconsumptioninthecountry,butratherwillreducefishimports.
What other impacts might the fisheries development strategies have?
Estimatednational-levelannualeconomicgainsresultingfromthestrategieswillrangefrom$0.4millionfromNRM,$1.2millionfromaquaculture,and$1.6millionfromaquacultureplusNRM(in2009USdollarsconstantprice)in2050.
Figure t-1: Projected Production and consumption of Fish groups in Fiji for 2035 and 2050 under two baseline Scenarios, with 2% and 3% annual growth rates of real Per capita Income
2050 - high2035 - high2050 - medium
2035 - medium2009
Freshwater consumption
Freshwater production
Coastal production
Oceanic production
Coastal consumption
Oceanic consumption
mt (x 1,000)0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Source:InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI).2016.Prospects and Adaptation Strategies for the Fisheries Sector under Climate Change in Pacific Coral Triangle Countries. Washington,DC.
8
FoodSecurityintheCoralTriangleofthePacificCountries
vanuatu caSE StudYAmongtheMelanesiancountries,Vanuatuhasthesmallesttotalwaterareaandexclusiveeconomiczone.Vanuatu’sfisheriescanbegroupedintocoastalcommercialfisheries,coastalsubsistencefisheries,offshoreforeign-basedfisheries,offshorelocallybasedordomesticfisheries,freshwaterfisheries,andaquaculture.Thehighest-valuefishharvestinVanuatuisincoastalsubsistencefisheries.CoastalfinfishandtunaarethetwomostimportantsourcesoffishandseafoodinVanuatu,contributing~77%ofcurrentconsumption,and~72%ofthecountry’sruralhouseholdsinvolvedinsomeformoffishing.
Vanuatuhasadoptedcoastalandfreshwateraquaculture(coastalandfreshwater);NRM(ridge-to-reef,regulations,MPAs);andlow-costinshoreFADs.Themodelconsidered(1)NRMplusFADs,and(2)aquaculture.
What is going to happen to vanuatu’s fisheries under baseline conditions?
Themodelprojectsthefollowinglikelysituationsto2050:
• Productionofoceanicfishisexpectedtoincrease,butproductionofcoastalfishisprojectedtodecline.Giventhatmanyofthepoorerhouseholdsrelyoncoastalfisheriesfortheirconsumptionneeds,thislikelyscenariohasseriousfoodsecurityimplications.
• Thoughtheconsumptionofoceanicfishisexpectedtoriseatafasterratethananyothersector,theoceanicfisheriessectorwillcontinuetobeanetexporter.Withgrowthinpopulationandincome,oceanicfishdemandmayincreaseby~5timesin2050.
Figure v-1: Projected Production and consumption of different Fish groups in vanuatu for 2035 and 2050 under two baseline Scenarios, with 2% and 3% annual growth rates of real Per capita Income
2050 - high2035 - high2050 - medium
2035 - medium2009
Freshwater consumption
Freshwater production
Coastal production
Oceanic production
Coastal consumption
Oceanic consumption
mt (x 1,000)0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Source:InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute.2016.Prospects and Adaptation Strategies for the Fisheries Sector under Climate Change in Pacific Coral Triangle Countries. Washington,DC.
• Vanuatuwillhavetoimportcoastalfishtomeettheincreasingdemandfrompopulationandincomegrowth.Demandforfreshwaterfishwillalsoexceeddomesticproduction.
• Totalfishconsumptionwillrisesubstantially,butthecountrywillremainanetexporterby2050.
can fisheries development strategies help to improve food security?
Yes.ThemodelshowedthattheadoptionofNRMstrategiesandlow-costinshoreFADstogetherwoulddecreasethepricesoftuna,coastalfinfish,coastalinvertebrates,andfreshwaterfinfishin2035.CoastalfinfishandtunaarethetwomostimportantsourcesoffishandseafoodinVanuatuand,becausecoastalfinfishiswidelyconsumedbyVanuatu’spoorerhouseholds,thisstrategyislikelytohaveapositiveimpactontheseconsumers.Thisstrategywillalsoincreasedemandforallcategoriesoffishin2050,andincreaseconsumptionthroughexpectedreductionsintherealpriceofthesefishcategories.However,withitscurrentpaceofimplementation,itwillnotbeabletohalttheriseoffishpricesin2050.Aquaculturedevelopmentwouldalsoprovidehigherincomes,leadingtoincreaseddemandfortunaandotheroceanicfish.
What other impacts might the fisheries development strategies have?
• Adoptionoflow-costinshoreFADsplusNRMwillhavethehighestpositiveimpactonoceanicfish,increasingsupplybyabout19%–20%in2050.
• Thenationalleveleconomicgainsfromtheadoptionofthestrategieswillbesubstantial.Theywerecalculatedannuallyat$4.5millionforaquaculture,$35millionforFADsplusNRM,and$38millionforallthree(in2009USdollarsconstantprice)in2050.
9
ADBBRIEFSNO.84
10
About the Asian Development BankADB’svisionisanAsiaandPacificregionfreeofpoverty.Itsmissionistohelpitsdevelopingmembercountriesreducepovertyandimprovethequalityoflifeoftheirpeople.Despitetheregion’smanysuccesses,itremainshometoalargeshareoftheworld’spoor.ADBiscommittedtoreducingpovertythroughinclusiveeconomicgrowth,environmentallysustainablegrowth,andregionalintegration.
BasedinManila,ADBisownedby67members,including48fromtheregion.Itsmaininstrumentsforhelpingitsdevelopingmembercountriesarepolicydialogue,loans,equityinvestments,guarantees,grants,andtechnicalassistance.
ADBBriefsarebasedonpapersornotespreparedbyADBstaffandtheirresourcepersons.Theseriesisdesignedtoprovideconcise,nontechnicalaccountsofpolicyissuesoftopicalinterest,withaviewtofacilitatinginformeddebate.TheDepartmentofExternalRelationsadministersthe series.
TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesofADBoritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.
AsianDevelopmentBank6ADBAvenue,MandaluyongCity1550MetroManila,PhilippinesTel+6326324444Fax+6326362444
www.adb.org/publications/series/adb-briefs
ADBBriefsaimtohighlightachievementsofADBprojectsthatsupportsocialprotectioninitiativesindevelopingmembercountries.
Photocredits:RowenaValmonte-Santos,EnvironmentandProductionTechnologyDivision,InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute;andJohannVanderPloeg,WorldFish.
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)©2017ADB.TheCClicensedoesnotapplytonon-ADBcopyrightmaterialsinthispublication.https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda pubsmarketing@adb.org
top related