foresight thinking as part of an innovator's education

Foresight thinking as a part of

an innovator’s

education

Elena Diryugina,

program director,

Open University Skolkovo,

Moscow, Russia

San Francisco, 2015

Innovation system in Russia

4 approaches to foresight education

4 cases of educational projects in

foresight

Foresight community in Russia: usage

instructions

For whom:

Development institutions,

Innovation infrastructure,

Innovators,

Educators

2014: Russian venture market – the 3 place in Europe

SKOLKOVO FOUNDATION (2010, 1000+ projects)

FASIE (1994, 8000 projects)

VEB innovation

(2011, 18 projects)

RVC (2006)

FIEP (2011, 360 projects)

RUSNANO

(2007, 100+ projects)

INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS

R&DCOMMERCI

ALIZATIONSCALE

TECH.

TRANSFERINCUBATION

Open University Skolkovo

(OpUS) is a Skolkovo

Foundation program designed

to attract talented young

people skilled in science and

technology and displaying

entrepreneurial talent, recruit

them and allow them to

develop within the innovation

ecosystem in Russia.

INNOVATION

DEVELOPMENT

INSTITUTIONS

INNOVATION

CENTERS

IN UNIVERSITIES

GLOBAL

CORPORATIONS

EDUCATIONAL

COMPANIES,

BUSINESS

INCUBATORS

FORESIGHT THINKING?

Foresight is not only

a research technology,

but also

a management technology

Startups

Research groups

Financial aid

Federal programs, Development Institutions

STRATEGY 2020: Sci&Tech Priorities

Government

Analytical Foresight

Economic Development Ministry (2006), Higher School of Economics (2011)

Financial aid to startups

Federal programs, Development Institutions

Strategy and SciTech Priorities

Government

National Technological Initiative

Agency of strategic initiatives, Russian venture company

Foresight & Initiatives

Research groups, innovators, businessmen, investors

The Future is coming.

It will be different from the present.

There are several scenarios of the futures.

The Actors determine, which scenario is the basic one.

TO ACCEPT THE FORECAST

.

. 1. The ability to use the

techniques of mid- and long-

term foresight and to choose

the basic scenario.

2. The ability to generate the

projects and initiatives

enhancing the chosen scenario.

TO FORM THE FORECAST

1. Understanding of short-

term and long-term trends

and the basic scenario.

2. The ability to evaluate the

perspectives of a research/

engineering / technological

project.

POTENTIAL INNOVATORS

(HAVE NO PROJECT YET)

METHOD

From general to particular

TIME RESOURCES

Available

AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL APPLICANTS

Many ( > 100 000)

MOTIVATION

A search for perspective idea, curiosity

RISKS

To become a futurist

BEGINNERS

[HAVE PROJECTS ALREADY)

METHOD

From particular to general, then back

TIME RESOURCES

Minimum

AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL APPLICANTS

Not many ( < 10 000)

MOTIVATION

Benefits to the projects

RISKS

Reduction of foresight to negotiations

PROACTIVE / ELITE

PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS

LONG-TERM

STRATEGY

SHORT-TERM

STRATEGY

Education

via researchEducation via

decision-making

situation

Education via

transmission

Education via

project ideas

generation /

discussion

WHOM TO EDUCATE?

Everyone \ Nobody \

Someone

Egalitarian \ Elite

WHAT TO STUDY?

Everything \ Nothing \ Something

General \ special

HOW LONG?

Determined periods of time \

Life-long learning \

Short irregular periods of time

HOW? (INSTRUMENTS)

to READ, to LISTEN,

to DISCUSS, to PLAY, to WRITE,

to INVESTIGATE, to CREATE,

WHO EDUCATES?

PROACTIVE / ELITE

PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS

LONG-TERM

STRATEGY

SHORT-TERM

STRATEGY

Educational

Course in

Foresight

The Think Foresight course is aimed to give students not

only advanced methods of foresight practice but also a wide

range of knowledge – an ontological basis – that is the

foundation of efficient thinking about the future.

The audience:

Future technological and business elite -

several hundreds of the best students and PhD students

from the best technological universities

The duration: a year

Advanced practices of thinking, understanding and

self-reflection.

Techniques of collective creative work.

Psychological and thinking methods necessary for

thinking about future.

Practical skills in setting and solving tasks and

problems of future designing in various scales:

world, macro-region, country, region, and even

personality.

Sufficient knowledge in academic areas necessary

for theoretic and practical thinking about future

a model of historical phases;

a model of sociosystem;

a model of knowledge

focuses;

strategy analytics;

a concept «Inevitable

future»-

scenario-building methodology.

The Future Designing Research Group is an

independent non-profit public think-tank, located in

St.Petersburg.

Focus on long-term forecasts and foresights for

state and private bodies.

Persons: Elena and Sergei Pereslegin,

Ekaterina and Nikolay Yutanov, and others

Main organizer: Open University Skolkovo

• Lectures,

• practical skills

in scenarios building,

• brainstorming with

Knowledge Reactor

method,

• social role-play

modelling games,

• scenario engineering

analytics.

PROACTIVE / ELITE

PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS

LONG-TERM

STRATEGY

SHORT-TERM

STRATEGY

High-level

Road map

development

2015:

Road Maps development:

how to find perspective

markets and create

successful technological

companies – national champions

till 2035 .

Annual, since 2012

The audience:

600+ participants, after a strict selection process:

entrepreneurs, venture investors, researchers,

educators, non-governmental organizations, the

leaders of enterprises of the real sector of the

economy, representatives of government.

Main organizers: Agency for strategic initiatives,

Russian Venture Company

The duration: 5 days

Rapid foresight methodology –

how to communicate about the future.

Foresight fleet features:

smart active people, limited time, closed space,

even without the Internet

PROACTIVE / ELITE

PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS

LONG-TERM

STRATEGY

SHORT-TERM

STRATEGY

Thematic

Foresight-games

/ project

sessions

Participants become ‘a working body’ of the

foresight-session.

Who plays a role of a teacher?

- facilitators, gamemasters,

session analysts

How to become a facilitator:

Foresight School (ASI)

Gamemasters School (OpUS)

others.

The main Formats:

• brainstorming with

Knowledge

Reactor method,

• social role-play

modelling games,

• Rapid Foresight

The duration: short (1-7 days) irregular sessions

PROACTIVE / ELITE

PASSIVE, RECEIVING / MASS

LONG-TERM

STRATEGY

SHORT-TERM

STRATEGY

Media

No future without science fiction and futurology!

To get innovation economy, breakthrough discoveries, global competitiveness, as well as the future itself, we need to have youth with great imagination resources.

Science Fiction inspires Futurology, Futurology enhances Sci-Fi, and all together they take us to the future.

33

«IF

» Futurology and Sci-Fi, future markets analysis

Partnership with development institutions

Partnership with think-tanks

The order to writers in the context of critical issues of development

aud

ien

ce Professionals in

the field of innovations

Futurists

Sci-Fi fandom

Youth

Multi-Format platform for communication about the

Future

34

Futurology

Practice

Sci-Fi

Paper journal

Interactive e-journal

Apps for cellphones

Network community

Sponsored by RVC

www.esli.ruu

1Open University Skolkovo

Sk.ru/opus

2The Future Designing Research Group

Future-designing.org

3Agency for strategic initiatives

asi.ru

4

Higher School of Economics, International

research and educational Foresight centre

issek.hse.ru/en/dep_foresight

5The Fund "Center for strategic research"

csr.ru

Elena Diryugina,

Program director

Open University Skolkovo

EDiryugina@sk.ru

facebook.com/elena.diryugina

Thank you for your attention! !