fragility curves and probabilistic floor spectra module · to define the deterministic seismic...

1 2016

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Fragility curves and probabilistic floor spectra module

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Why?

• Uncertainty / uncertainties are part of the life of any system: uses, environment, choice of

architecture

• Yet the engineer seeks to design and maintain systems Robust: insensitive to variations of environment or use in particular

Reliable: with guaranteed performances over a fixed lifetime

And economic (to produce and / or maintain)!

How? For 15 years, Phimeca approach has been based on conjugation

• From the modeling of physics: 3D modeling (finite elements) or 0D / 1D modeling

• From data modeling: data mining or expert models

• In compliance with regulatory frameworks

Phimeca: Robust engineering

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Seismic Probabilistic Safety Analysis

Fre

qu

en

cy o

f e

xce

ed

ance

Intensity measure

Seismic Hazard

Even

t tr

ee System analysis

Pro

bab

ility

d

en

sity

Frequency

Releases frequencies Consequences • Atmospheric

Dispersion • Health • Evacuation • …

Intensity measure

Component fragility

Co

nd

itio

nal

P

rob

abili

ty o

f f

ailu

re

Methods Observations Expert judgement Numerical Simulation

Context

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Context

Earthquakes Soils/Buildings Equipments

Seismic hazard Civil engineering Structural analyses

Seismic hazard Soil

Building 1

Building 2

Equipment 1

Equipment 2

Equipment 3

Equipment 4

Exemple :

To face the safety, security and environmental challenges

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Objectives

Fragility module

Deterministic

analysis

Hazard

Model parameters

Soil impedances

Probabilistic post-processing

Fragility curves

Probabilistic floor spectra

Accelerograms

Structural analysis

study

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Objectives

Fragility module in SALOME Platform

« Model definition »

« Seismic signals »

« Soil »

« Uncertainties »

« Fragility curves »

« Probabilistic floor spectra »

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Model definition

To define the deterministic seismic analysis to be performed (commands files, mesh

files, …)

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Seismic signals

To apply seismic signals (natural or previously generated) defined in files

To generate synthetic accelerograms using GENE_ACCE_SEISME command of

Code_Aster;

• « Add » : To define general characteristics of the seismic signals

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Seismic signals

• « Signals type » : to define the type of the seismic signal

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Seismic signals

• « Signals type » : to define the type of the seismic signal

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Deterministic modeling of the soil

Probabilistic modeling of the soil

• Between a set of soil characteristics

• Using random variables for soil characteristics

• …

Soil

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The shape of this interface will be based on PhimecaSoft or OpenTURNS interface in SALOME-

MECA platform ;

Uncertainties

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To build fragility curves from previous analyses

To build fragility curves from current analyses

Fragility curves

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To perform probabilistic floor spectra

Post-processing points

Probabilistic floor spectra

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Next steps

Beta version without soil modeling

Version in Salomé-Méca for EDF users

Beta version with soil modeling

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In summary, Fragility curves and probabilistic floor

spectra module aims at helping engineers

To work with better ergonomics

To capitalize their works

To have a better productivity

To increase the quality of the studies

To reduce tedious and boring tasks