freeland water and sewer district citizens advisory committee preliminary report freeland population...

Freeland Water and Sewer District

Citizens Advisory Committee

Preliminary ReportFreeland Population and Growth Study

Environmental IssuesProposed Sewer Options

Freeland Population and Growth Study

Data sources used for this report

• Washington State OFM/Island County data• Washington Regional Economic Analysis data• Port of South Whidbey• South Whidbey School District data• Freeland Water and Sewer District data• Holmes Harbor Sewer District data• Washington State DOT data• Washington Department of Commerce, Bureau of

Economic Analysis• Trulia Real estate data

Approach

• Growth predictions based on past growth are sensitive to the time frame selected

• Understanding growth drivers and basing analysis on interpretation of these is necessary

• Risk factors for population growth must be included

Island County OFM

Since 2005 there is declining growth in population

Washington Regional Economic Analysis data

A clear trend in declining growth rate

Washington Regional Economic Analysis data

Recap of Results: Island County is Classified Among those Washington Counties Whose Real Total Personal Income Growth was Lagging in 2009

Island County's real total personal income growth rate of 2.30% trailed Washington's overall average of 2.56% over 2000-2009, and its -4.18% growth rate also trailed the statewide average of -0.64% over 2009. Accordingly, Island County is classified as “Lagging" in that its real personal income growth recorded below the statewide average in 2009 and its longer-term average fell below that of the average statewide over 2000-2009.Island County is among the 5 of 39 (13%) Washington counties whose real total personal income growth was classified as Lagging in 2009. In 2009, it ranked 37 out of the 39, over 2000-2009 it ranked 29.

Washington Regional Economic Analysis data

Recap of Results: Island County is Classified Among those Washington Counties Whose Total Employment Growth was Lagging in 2009

Island County's total employment growth rate of 0.48% trailed Washington's overall average of 1.09% over 2000-2009, and its -6.16% growth rate also trailed the statewide average of -3.31% over 2009. Accordingly, Island County is classified as “Lagging" in that its employment growth recorded below the statewide average in 2009 and its longer-term average fell below that of the average statewide over 2000-2009. Island County is among the 9 of 39 (23%) Washington counties whose total employment growth was classified as Lagging in 2009. In 2009, it ranked 37 out of the 39, over 2000-2009 it ranked 27.

Island County personal income compared to Washington State

Island County and Washington State per capita Income compared to USA

Note recent trends

Port of South Whidbey data

South Whidbey population vs. year

South Whidbey School District1999-2010

The South Whidbey School District enrollment in 2010 is 64% of the 1999 enrollment (dropping by over 3.5%/year over the last decade) and is predicted to decline by an additional 300 students (20%) by 2016.

Why the declining enrollment- changing demographic in South Whidbey

• Freeland (98249) 2000 2010– Median age 46.7 54.9 – Average household size 2.29 2.09

• Oak Harbor (98277)– Median age 30.4 33– Average household size 2.67 2.5

• Clinton– Median age 43.4 51.2– Average household size 2.47 2.25

Income comparison with Oak HarborFreeland - 2497 tax filers Oak Harbor - 17022 tax filers

Freeland has a higher percentage of high income tax filers, but also a higher percentage of lower income tax filers.

Under 10,000

10,000 to 25,000

25,000 to 50,000

50,000 to 75,000

75,000 to 100,000

100,000 to 200,000

over 2

00,0000

100

200

300

400

500

600

Income

Income

Under 10,000

10,000 to 25,000

25,000 to 50,000

50,000 to 75,000

75,000 to 100,000

100,000 to 200,000

over 2

00,0000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Income

Income

Clinton/Mukilteo Ferry ridership

• Study with data to 2006 (before economic downturn) showed an increase of 4.3%/yr

• Ridership has declined 4.8% since 2006, 2.5% in 2009-2010

Freeland Areas

Zip-code 98249 Freeland CDP Freeland NMUGA

Freeland 98249 facts

• 2010 population 4561• 34.4% (1540) of the population are drawing

social security• 27.7% (1244) are employed• Average income per person $37,915• Average Age 54.9• Average growth from 2000 to 2010 was 2.3%/yr• Growth from 2010-2011 is 0.37%

Freeland CDP( Census Designated Place)• Mean age is 52.1• Growth from 2000 to 2010 was 4.1% annually• The CDP is a subset of zip-code 98249• The CDP boundaries differ from the NMUGA, but

represent a statistical proxy

FWSD

Cumulative Water Connections

FWSD/HHSD

• 2004-2009 – FWSD

• 6 new residential water connections (0.26%/yr)• 84 new commercial water connections (8.26%/yr)

– HHSD• 156 residential sewer connections (8 %/yr)

• 2009-2011 – FWSD

• 1 new residential water connection (0.11%/yr)• 4 new commercial water connections (0.45%/yr)

– HHSD• 6 residential sewer connections (0.8%/yr)

HHSD

New sewer connections

Freeland NMUGA

• No 2000 census• 2010 population is 1633• 879 of Freeland NMUGA residents, 54%, are

served by HHSD and MSSD sewer districts• 675 of Freeland NMUGA residents (@2.11 per

household), 41%, are served by the FWSD• 79 of Freeland NMUGA residents, 5%, are on

wells and not presently served by any district

Growth in Freeland NMUGA

• Freeland CDP used as Freeland NMUGA proxy• 1313 to 2045 residents from 2000 to 2010 • 732 new CDP residents from 2000 to 2010• 456 of these were in HHSD or MSSD• This results in an increase of 277 (growth from

1313 to 1579) in the area a FWSD sewer might serve (1.9%/yr)

OFM data 2010 to 2011

• Growth rates from 2010 to 2011(OFM data)– Island County -2.5%– Coupeville 1.31%– Langley 0.87%– Freeland UGA 0.36%

Business Growth

• Freeland has shown business growth in excess of population growth especially from 2004 to 2008, but continuing at a slower rate in more recent years

• The Chamber of Commerce has not provided any meaningful input to this study

• Continued business growth is expected, but no specific rate is known

Conclusions

• Previous yearly population growth was as high as 4%

• Current yearly population growth is under 1%• Until the economy recovers the population

growth in the Freeland NMUGA will remain stagnant and there are no indicators supporting a near term recovery

Environmental Issues

Issues

• Fecal Coliform / shellfish protection / Freeland Beach

• Low dissolved oxygen in Holmes Harbor

Program for Fecal Coliform

• Pet waste• Livestock• Low impact development (surface water)• Natural yard Care Meetings• Septic inspections– 98% in Holmes Harbor– 14% in Island County

DNA in Nisqually Inlet• Conclusions of DNA-Typing Study• • The number of isolates matched (89%) exceeded anticipated results.• • Birds are the dominant source seen overall.• • Cows are the second most frequent source in actively grazed

agricultural fields.• • After birds, canine and rodents (wildlife) are predominant at sites

where there is limited human activity.• • Human sources are second most frequently seen source at the

residential sites and are present where hunting is leased.• http://

www.co.thurston.wa.us/health/ehrp/pdf/Nisqually/NisqPollutionSourceReport_12_2004.pdf

• Note: With over 1,000,000 FC/ml, we are not the “dirtiest” beech

Septic Inspections

• The CAC discussed septic inspections and suggests the County should prioritize inspections of very old systems near the water

• It is not true that properly designed and maintained septic systems do not function properly year round in the Freeland area

From:Holmes Harbor ShellfishProtection District Update

Island County Board of HealthMarch 19, 2012

Report Conclusions

Next Steps• Finalize ECY Report: Due June 30, 2012 with a Post Project Assessment in 2015• Partner with DOH to share results and work towards removing closure area

Low dissolved oxygen

• Whidbey action area

Holmes Harbor

Proposed Sewer System

Commercial Core Options

• The system we examined covered the commercial core on the north side of Hwy 525, however an extension to the south side could be added

Options for Disposal

• Trillium property was dismissed as an option– Cost over $6.5 million before additional storage

and easements/drainage ditches required by hydro-study

– The operational costs were $60,000/year– The was virtually no recharge of the aquifer, but

the water went to transpiration or ran off downhill potentially exacerbating a present flooding problem (potential for legal actions)

Options for Disposal

• Outfall into Admiralty Inlet– Will require studies and permits– Unlimited capacity

• Constructed wetlands discharging into Holmes Harbor– Potential wetlands park– Potential roadblock (Pinto Creek case)

• Local drain-fields (as Main street SD)– If systems are less than 100,000 gallons/day only DOH

permits necessary– Capacity limited – but lots of open space– All options would include available reuse water

Treatment

• Membrane bio-reactor (MBR) systems located at:– Homes Harbor SD plant– Main Street SD plant– Other central location(s)

Proposed Project Scope

• In the near term, the only potential need for sewers is in the commercial core

• Any development of sewers in residential areas is not justified at present either to meet residential growth requirements or for environmental reasons

• Septic systems are allowed within a comprehensive sewer plan and are GMA compliant

What’s Next?

• Cost estimates for three basic alternatives (waiting for the revised versions)– Holmes Harbor treatments and outfall– Local treatment (new or MSSD) and constructed

wetlands– Local treatment (new or MSSD) and multiple drain

fields • Determine if there is support from the commercial

core• Revise the FWSD Sewer Plan

Questions?

Commissioners: future CAC work?