fresno power analysis – fresno county democratic party
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7/24/2019 Fresno Power Analysis Fresno County Democratic Party
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Fresno Power Analysis
Who has power in Fresno?
How is that power used?
How could that power be affected?
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Power Structure
Analysis of Fresno
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4
Taken into
account
Can get
attention
3
6
Power to have
major influence ondecision making
8Active participant
in decision
making
1
0
Decisive decision-
making power
or influence
2Not on
radar
Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward
Elected Officials
Tom McClintock
U.S. Congress (R)
Fresno Mayor
Devin Nunes
U.S. Congress (R)
Board of
Supervisors
David Valadao
U.S. Congress (R)
Clovis City Council
Anthony Cannella
Senate (R)
Tom Berryhill
Senate (R)
Jim Patterson
Assembly (R)
Andy Vidak
Senate (R)
Jim Costa
U.S. Congress (D)
Henry T. Perea
Assembly (D)
Small Town
City Councils
Fresno City Council
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4
Taken into
account
Can get
attention
3
6
Power to have
major influence ondecision making
8Active participant
in decision
making
1
0
Decisive decision-
making power
or influence
2Not on
radar
Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward
Land Use
Criminal Justice/
Incarceration
Health Access
Air Quality
Hunger/Nutrition
Jobs
Water
Transportation
Immigrant Rights
Workers Rights
Environment
Homelessness
Police
Accountability
Privatization
Issues
Social & Economic Justice Agenda Political & Economic Elite Agenda
Living Wage
Womens
Reproductive
Rights
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Players
4
Taken into
account
Can get
attention
3
6
Power to have
major influence ondecision making
8Active participant
in decision
making
1
0
Decisive decision-
making power
or influence
2Not on
radar
Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward
Education
Labor
Democratic
Party
Left Third
Parties
Community
Alliance
Unitarians
WILPF
CLC
NAACP
Small Town
Mayors
Fresno City
Council
Building
Trades
California
Endowment
Law
Enforcement
Metro
Ministry
Sierra
Club
SEIU
LGBTStudent
Groups
African-American
Community AsianCommunity
LatinoCommunity
Undocumented
Workers
Republican
Party
Fresno
Bee
Developers
Agribusiness
Chamber of
Commerce
Right-Wing
Radio
Mayor Ashley
Swearingen
Tea PartyHispanic
Chambers
Black
Chamber
LWV
California
Advocate
Board of
Supervisors
Lincoln ClubBusiness
Leadership
Council
Peace
Groups
Right Third
Parties
Planned
Parenthood
Fresno
Partnership
Faith in
Community
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COMPETING
AGENDAS
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Power Elite Agenda
Grow at all costs Privatize government services
Hold down cost of doing business in Fresno Roll back/prevent further regulation
(labor & environmental, specifically air, land & water) Keep wages down
Safe communities/reducing crime
Regional transportation Attract new industries/employers in part by marketing
the region as regulation-less
Increase prestige of Fresno
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Power Elite Agenda: Splits
Smart-ishGrowth,Air Is Issue, Schools
Mayor Ashley Swearengin
Urban Members
of Elected Bodies City Planning &
Development Agencies
Some Developers
Unfettered Growth,Pollute Like Mad
Agribusiness
Building Industry Association
Fresno Business Council Most Developers
Cities of Clovis & Sanger
County of Madera
Chamber of Commerce Non-Urban Members
of Elected Bodies
Christian Right
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The Progressive Agenda
Living Wage for All Workers Water Quality & Accessibility
Police Accountability
Environmental Justice (e.g., air quality, stopping fracking)
Immigrant Rights & Immigration Reform Ending Homelessness
Civil Liberties
Land Use & Transportation
Public Education for All
Healthcare access & quality
Stopping Privatization Efforts
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DECISION MAKERS
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4
Taken into
account
Can get
attention
3
6
Power to have
major influence ondecision making
8Active participant
in decision
making
1
0Decisive decision-
making power
or influence
2Not on
radar
Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward
Key Powers: Land use (zoning, permits, subsidies) Economic development Services: Street Maintenance,Police & Fire, Housing, Public Utilities
Budget: $1.4 billion
Key Players:Mayor 7-member City Council Planning Commission
Boards of
Education
City of Fresno
Fresno County
Regional Bodies
Other Cities
Key Powers: Oversee state-mandated services Services: Health/Welfare, Registrar/Clerk, Assessor, DA, Sheriff Budget: $2.7 billion
Key Players:
5-member Board of Supervisors
15 incorporated cities
Key Powers: Manage state-allocated budgets Oversee curriculum & education policiesfor students countywide
Key Players:
33 school districts(including 36 charter schools)
Office of Education Fresno & Clovis Unified (largest districts)
Key Powers: Regional coordination betweengovernmental entities
Regional water/air policies & projects
Key Players: Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) Fresno Council of Governments (COG) San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District Westlands & Friant water districts Fresno Irrigation District
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4
Taken into
account
Can get
attention
3
6
Power to have
major influence ondecision making
8Active participant
in decision
making
1
0Decisive decision-
making power
or influence
2Not on
radar
Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward
Henry
Perea
Debbie
Poochigian
Brian Pacheco (D)
Fourth-generation dairy farmer Served on Kerman Unified School District Board Director of Community Regional Medical Center Past president of Fresno County Farm Bureau
Buddy Mendes (R)
Farm owner on both east and west sides of county Served on Riverdale Unified School District Board of Trustees Served on the Southwest Transportation Agency Board Rumored to have had Koch brothers support
Debbie Poochigian (R)
Married to former State Senator Chuck Poochigian Family has farmed in Fresno County for four generations Member of Fresno County Farm Bureau Part of solid conservative bloc
Board of Supervisors
Andreas Borgeas (R)
Former Fresno City Council member Served on Mayors Economic Stimulus Committee Focused on business law when in private practice Part of conservative bloc
Henry Perea (D) Former Fresno City Council member Developed Go Green Fresno Led program for county investment in community banks Prospective candidate for mayor of Fresno in 2016
Andreas
BorgeasBrian
Pacheco Buddy
Mendes
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Last Election per Supervisor
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4
Taken into
account
Can get
attention
3
6
Power to have
major influence ondecision making
8Active participant
in decision
making
1
0Decisive decision-
making power
or influence
2Not on
radar
Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward
Fresno City Council
MayorSwearingen
Lee
Brand
Sal
QuinteroClint
Olivier
Ashley Swearengin (R)
Previously Community & Economic Development at CSUF Has taken aggressive actions against the homeless in the city
Secretive while maintaining a power bloc on City Council Has few qualms about putting citys finances at legal risk Terms out in 2016
Steve Brandau (R)
Coordinator of the Central Valley Tea Party Views government as the problem, not the solution Has a radical right-wing agenda
Lee Brand (R) Pro business and considers himself a numbers guy A reliable vote for the Mayors positions Candidate for Mayor in 2016
Paul Caprioglio (D)
Previously served interim term on City Council Served on City of Fresno Planning Commission
A reliable vote for the Mayors positions
Sal Quintero (D) Previously served two terms on City Council Helped open Senior Citizens Resource Center Considered reliable labor supporter
Esmeralda Soria (D)
Law professor Former adviser to Assembly Member Henry T. Perea Past Sustainable Rural Communities project director
Clint Olivier (R)
Formerly a TV news reporter Initially called himself a pure libertarian Now a reliable vote for the Mayors positions
Oliver Baines (D)
Former head of Problem-Oriented-Policing Unit Serves on Fulton/Lowell Plan Advisory Committee Serves on SJV Air Pollution Control District
Steve
Brandau
Paul
CaprioglioEsmeralda
Soria
Oliver
Baines
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District 1: Esmeralda SoriaElected: Nov. 4, 2014
Registration: 32,376Total Votes:11,143 (34.4%)Soria Votes: 5,430 (52.4%)Catalano Votes: 4,896 (47.3%)Next Election: 2018
District 2: Steve BrandauElected: Nov. 6, 2012Registration: 39,189Total Votes: 25,721 (65.6%)
Brandau Votes: 12,432 (54.2%)DiCicco Votes: 10,433 (45.5%)Next Election: 2016
District 4: Paul CaprioglioElected: June 5, 2012
Registration: 27,520Total Votes: 6,976 (25.3%)Caprioglio Votes: 3,414 (51.4%)Good Votes: 3,208 (48.3%)Next Election: 2016
District 3: Oliver BainesReelected: June 3, 2014Registration: 26,410Total Votes: 4,548 (17.2%)Baines Votes: 2,785 (66.0%)Hunt Votes: 827 (19.6%)Next Election: 2018 (TO)
District 5: Sal QuinteroReelected: June 3, 2014Registration: 27,208Total Votes: 4,517 (16.6%)Quintero Votes: 3,742 (97.9%)(unopposed)Next Election: 2018 (TO)
District 6: Lee BrandReelected: June 5, 2012Registration: 39,073Total Votes: 14,692 (37.6%)
Brand Votes: 11,074 (98.3%)Other Votes: 188 (1.7%)Next Election: 2016 (TO)
Mayor: Ashley SwearenginReelected: June 5, 2012Registration: 207,628Total Votes: 55,196 (26.6%)Swearingen Votes: 39,342 (74.8%)Hunt Votes: 4,545 (8.7%)
Next Election: 2016 (TO)
District 7: Clint OlivierReelected: June 3, 2014Registration: 24,708Total Votes: 4,009 (16.2%)Olivier Votes: 2,077 (54.3%)
Wells Votes: 1,130 (29.6%)Next Election:2018 (TO)
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Last Election per Council Member
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Obama won Fresno County in
2008 and2012
2012 results by precinctin the City of Fresno:
Obama (blue) vs. Romney (red)
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Elected Officials by Party
63
159
295
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Appointed Officials by Party
265220
72
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City Council Members in Fresno County
32
41
8
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School Boards in Fresno County
93
74
23
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Environmental Bodies in Fresno County
108
14 9
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ORGANIZED
OPPOSITION
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4
Taken into
account
Can get
attention
3
6
Power to have
major influence ondecision making
8
Active participant
in decision
making
1
0Decisive decision-
making power
or influence
2Not on
radar
Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward
Organized Opposition
BusinessOrganizations
Christian
RightConservative
Advocacy
Organizations
Agribusiness
Republican Party
Developers
Fresno State
Tea Party
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Christian Right
Mayor Ashley
Swearengin
Police Chief
Jerry Dyer
Jim Franklin
Rev. H. Spees
The Catholic Church
Some Black Ministers
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4
Taken into
account
Can get
attention
3
6
Power to have
major influence on
decision making
8
Active participantin decision
making
1
0Decisive decision-
making power
or influence
2Not on
radar
Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward
Faith Groups
Sikh
BuddhismMormon
7th Day
AdventistMennonite
Brethren
Islamic Cultural
Center
NorthwestChurch
Cornerstone
Church
TheWell
FresnoPacific
University
West Fresno
Ministerial Alliance
Catholic Church PeoplesChurch
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Developers
Granville HomesDarius & Farid Assemi, & Jeff Roberts
Building Industry Association Represents commercial & residential builders/developers Large donor via Citizens for Housing Opportunities PAC
Associated General ContractorsAdvances concerns of the construction industry
Lance-Kashian & Co.Ed Kashian
The Penstar GroupTom Richards
Harris ConstructionRichard Spencer
Developers put big money in electoral races
Operation Rezone is an extreme example of this influence
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Business Organizations
Chamber of Commerce Represents and advocates on behalf of business
Economic Development Corp. Recruits businesses, jobs and capital to Fresno Helped Fresno become a Federal Empowerment Zone
Fresno Business Council Provides voice for the elite of the business elite Launched Fresno Citizens for Good Government
Other Chambers Hispanic Chambers Black Metro Chamber Fresno County Womens Chamber of Commerce
Among the most vocal supporters of Measure G
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Agribusiness
Westlands Water DistrictAdvocates for landowners in Fresno & Kings counties
Farm Bureau Promotes family farm image & downplays agribusiness Has strong ties to most Supervisors
Nisei Farmers League Serves as mutual protection society for farmers Holds anti-regulation, anti-progressive anything stance Formed in response to a strengthening UFW
California Latino Water Coalition Promotes Delta solutions to benefit West-side farmers Fronted by actor/comedian Paul Rodriguez
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Republican Party
Elected Officials Mayor Ashley Swearengin Reps. Devin Nunes, Tom McClintock & David Valadao State legislators Tom Berryhill, Anthony Canella, Andy Vidak &
Jim Patterson Control Board of Supervisors Nominally control Fresno City Council Dominant control of all environmental bodies
Lincoln Club Supports pro economic growth candidates Stresses fiscal conservatism
Central Valley Tea Party Influence reflected in mainstream Republican positions Fresno City Council Member Steve Brandau
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Organized Opposition
Net Effect Large coordinated political contributions
Buy influence of ruling elite conservatives whorepresent their interests
Get appointed & elected to boards/commissions
Strong social ties to politicians & other power players
With money & access to media, they are able to
project a positive public image & control the message
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Implications
for Progressives
Target battles & races that can be affected
Exploit competing interests where possible
Proactive agenda needed to avoid playing defense(e.g., homeless, Walmart expansions, privatization)
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POTENTIAL ALLIES
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4
Taken into
account
Can get
attention
3
6
Power to have
major influence ondecision making
8
Active participantin decision
making
1
0Decisive decision-
making power
or influence
2Not on
radar
Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward
Potential Allies
Latino Community
Organizations
Progressive
Advocacy Groups
Progressive
Churches
Democratic Party
African-American
Organizations
Green Party/
Peace & Freedom Party
Organized Labor
Community
Capacity Builders
Asian Community
Organizations
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4
Taken into
account
Can get
attention
3
6
Power to have
major influence ondecision making
8
Active participantin decision
making
1
0Decisive decision-
making power
or influence
2Not on
radar
Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward
Advocacy Groups/
Capacity Builders
ACLU
Building Healthy Communities
Center for New Americans
Central Valley Progressive PAC
Communities for a New California
Community Alliance
El Concilio de Fresno
Fresno Metro Ministry
Fresno Partnership
League of Women Voters
May 1st Committee
Mexican American Political Association (MAPA)
NAACP
Peace Fresno
PICO/Faith in Community
Planned Parenthood
SEFCEDA
Sierra Club
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4
Taken into
account
Can get
attention
3
6
Power to have
major influence ondecision making
8
Active participantin decision
making
1
0Decisive decision-
making power
or influence
2Not on
radar
Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward
Organized Labor
Fresno Teachers
Association
SEIU 521
SEIU-UHW
Firefighters
IBEW
Deputy Sheriffs
Association
SEIU 1000
FPOACentral Labor
Council
Carpenters
COOL
CWA
UFCW
Building Trades
Council
Plumbers &
Pipefitters
CSEA
FCEAAFT
LIUNA
CNA
AFT: American Federation of Teachers; CNA: California Nurses Association; COOL: Coalition of Organized Labor; CSEA: California
School Employees Association; CWA: Communications Workers of America; FCEA: Fresno City Employees Association; FPOA:
Fresno Police Officers Association; IBEW: International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers; LIUNA: Laborers International Union of
North America; SEIU: Service Employees International Union; UFCW: United Food and Commercial Workers; UHW: United
Healthcare Workers
1
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4
Taken into
account
Can get
attention
3
6
Power to have
major influence on
decision making
8
Active participantin decision
making
1
0Decisive decision-
making power
or influence
2Not on
radar
Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward
Faith Groups
College Community
Congregational
Newman Center
First
CongregationalChurch
Metro MinistryFresno
Interdenominational
Refugee Ministries
JewishUnitarianChurch
Sikh
Buddhism
Quakers
WesleyUnited
Methodist
InterfaithSocialJustice
Collaborative
Mennonite
InterfaithAlliance
FaithinCommunity
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Implications
Need more & stronger base-building groups Advocacy & institution-based groups the keys tolong-term base building
Relationships mainly tactical (e.g., Measure G,Yes on 30/No on 32); need to be more strategic
Mutual interests more effective than individualinterests
Strength exists in unity
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CHALLENGES
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2016
ElectoralLandscape
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Races to Target
Congressional District 21 Seat held by Rep. David Valadao Conservative Kings County at the heart of the district
Assembly District 31
Henry T. Perea terming out Republicans emboldened following close 2014 Costa race
Fresno County Board of Supervisors Maintain District 3 seat
Find candidates for Districts 2 & 5 Fresno Mayor
Ashley Swearengin is terming out Solidify behind one progressive candidate
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Races to Target
Fresno Unified School District Carol Mills, Luis Chavez & Janet Ryan seats up for reelection Ryan likely to retire
State Center Community College District
Democratic incumbents Eric Payne, John Leal & PatrickPatterson up for reelection Richard Caglia rumored to be stepping down
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CONCLUSION
D hi
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Fresno is more progressive than many people realize.
There is a massive north/south divide in our community.
Demographics shifts will increasingly benefitprogressive candidates.
These demographic changes now include Fresno has a majority of non-White residents
Younger voters replacing older voters at a fast pace (CD21)
Voter education campaigns a key to our success
The more we can empower voters in southeast andsouthwest Fresno, the sooner we will win citywide races
Demographics
Ed ti th C it
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Educating the Community
El t l St t
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Electoral Strategy
Need ongoing strategies to motivate voters Focus on candidate recruitment & development
Target specific races
Facilitate grassroots activism
Train competent local campaign talent
Prepare a united & coordinated electoral strategy
Leverage successes
Organize precincts, neighborhoods and communitygroups on a continuous basis
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