from the lab to the marketplace to standards hertz foundation symposium san jose, ca 3-17-2007...
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From the Lab to the Marketplace to StandardsHertz Foundation Symposium
San Jose, CA3-17-2007
Arthur H. Rosenfeld, CommissionerCalifornia Energy Commission
(916) 654-4930ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US
http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html
or just Google “Art Rosenfeld”
2
3
1949
4
Energy Intensity in the United States 1949 - 2005
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
19491951195319551957195919611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005
thousand Btu/$ (in $2000)
If intensity dropped at pre-1973 rate of 0.4%/year
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1%/year)
5
Energy Consumption in the United States 1949 - 2005
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
19491951195319551957195919611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005
Quads/Year
$ 1.7 Trillion
$ 1.0 Trillion
New Physical Supply = 25 Q
Avoided Supply = 70 Quads in 2005
If E/GDP had dropped 0.4% per year
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1% per year)
70 Quads per year saved or avoided corresponds to 1 Billion cars off the road
6
Environmental Equivalent of Avoiding 70 Quads
70 Quads = 33 Mbod (Million barrels of oil per day)
= 40% of World oil production of 80 Mbod
70 Quads = 1 Billion cars off the road, impressive since there are only 600 million cars on the road
7
How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency?
Easiest to tease out is cars
– In the early 1970s, only 14 miles per gallons
– Now about 21 miles per gallon
– If still at 14 mpg, we’d consume 75 billion gallons more and pay $225 Billion more at 2006 prices
– But we still pay $450 Billion per year
– If California wins the “Schwarzenegger-Pavley” suit, and it is implemented nationwide, we’ll save another $150 Billion per year
Commercial Aviation improvements save another $50 Billion per year Appliances and Buildings are more complex
– We must sort out true efficiency gains vs. structural changes (from smokestack to service economy).
8
How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency (cont’d)?
Some examples of estimated savings in 2006 based on 1974 efficiencies minus 2006 efficiencies
Beginning in 2007 in California, reduction of “vampire” or stand-by losses
– This will save $10 Billion when finally implemented, nation-wide
Out of a total $700 Billion, a crude summary is that 1/3 is structural, 1/3 is from transportation, and 1/3 from buildings and industry.
Billion $
Space Heating 40Air Conditioning 30Refrigerators 15Fluorescent Tube Lamps 5Compact Floursecent Lamps 5Total 95
9
A supporting analysis on the topic of efficiencyfrom Vice-President Dick Cheney
“Had energy use kept pace with economic growth, the nation would have consumed 171 quadrillion British thermal units (Btus) last year instead of 99 quadrillion Btus”
“About a third to a half of these savings resulted from shifts in the economy. The other half to two-thirds resulted from greater energy efficiency”
Source: National Energy Policy: Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group, Dick Cheney, et. al., page 1-4, May 2001
10
Energy Intensity -- California and the United States
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003year
Intensity (thousand Btus per $ measured in year 2000 $)
US down to 54% of 1973 intensity
California down to 46% of 1973 intensity
54%
46%
11
Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person) (2005 to 2008 are forecast data)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1960196219641966196819701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008
California
United States
∆= 4,000kWh/yr
= $110/capita
12
Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 2001 (Fossil Fuel Combustion Only)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar)
To
ns
of
CO
2 p
er p
erso
n
Canada Australia
S. Korea
California
Mexico
United States
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
New Zealand
Switzerland
Japan
13
Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 2001 (Fossil Fuel Combustion Only)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar )
Tons of CO2 per person
Canada
Australia
S. Korea
California
Mexico
United States
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
New Zealand
Switzerland
Japan
IndiaChina
14
CO2 Emissions in California Including Electricity Imports1990 - 2004
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
year
Million Metric Tons of CO2
14 year growth rate of 1.1%/year
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
MPG Converted to CAFE Test Cycle
Japan
EU
China
Canada California (Pavley)
US (1) dotted lines denote proposed standards(2) MPG = miles per gallon
Australia
~
Comparison of Fuel Economy – Passenger Vehicles
16
Index (1972 = 1.00) of U.S. Energy Use, GDP, Energy Intensity and Carbon Dioxidelast 10-year CO2 growth = 1.3% per year
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
19491951195319551957195919611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005
e/gdp
quads
gdp
CO2 (combustion)1.37
2.71
1.33 (est.)
17
Per Capita Electricity Consumption
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
year
kWh/person
United StatesCaliforniaNew York
Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/sep_use/total/csv/use_csv
18
Per Capita Electricity Consumption
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000year
kWh/person
Red States 2004 ElectionUnited StatesBlue States 2004 ElectionCalifornia
19
Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances
Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE,
in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org
75%
60%
25%20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Ind
ex (
1972
= 1
00)
Effective Dates of National Standards
=
Effective Dates of State Standards
=
Refrigerators
Central A/C
Gas Furnaces
SEER = 13
20
Impact on Lighting of Building + Appliance Standards
United States Best Practice measured in Watts/Sq. Ft. of Commercial Building floor area.
In 1974 = 4 Watts/Sq. Ft. In 2006 = 0.8 Watts/Sq. Ft. An Enlightened reduction to 1/5 Drivers: Standards, electronic ballasts, and currently,
“scotopic” (blue-ish) color, all thanks to LBNL and Sam Berman.
21 Source: David Goldstein
New United States Refrigerator Use v. Time
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh/yr)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Refrigerator volume (cubic feet)
Refrigerator Size (cubic ft)
Energy Use per Unit(kWh/Year) 71% reduction in 28 yrs
= 4.4% year
1st Federal Standard 1992
22 Source: David Goldstein
New United States Refrigerator Use v. Time and Retail Prices
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Average Energy Use or Price
0
5
10
15
20
25
Refrigerator volume (cubic feet)
Energy Use per Unit(kWh/Year)
Refrigerator Size (cubic ft)
Refrigerator Price in 1983 $
$ 1,270
$ 462
23
New Refrigerator Energy Use: 71% will be saved when stock completely turns over to 2001 Standards
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
At 1974 Efficiency At 2002 Efficiency
Billion kWh per Year
Energy Needed
Energy Needed
Energy Saved
24
Annual Energy Saved vs. Several Sources of Supply
Energy Saved Refrigerator Stds
renewables
100 Million 1 KW PV systems
conventional hydro
nuclear energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Billion kWh/year
25
Value of Energy to be Saved (at 8.5 cents/kWh, retail price) vs. Several Sources of Supply in 2005 (at 3 cents/kWh, wholesale price)
Energy Saved Refrigerator Stds
renewables
100 Million 1 KW PV systems
conventional hydro
nuclear energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
Billion $ (US)/year in 2005
26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
3 Gorges三峡
Refrigerators冰箱
Air Conditioners 空调
TWh
2000 Stds
2000 Stds
2005 Stds
2005 Stds
If Energy Star
If Energy Star
TW
H/Y
ear
1.5
4.5
6.0
3.0
7.5
Val
ue
(bil
lio
n $
/yea
r)
Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements
Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations provided by David Fridley, LBNL
Value of TWh
3 Gorges三峡
Refrigerators 冰箱
Air Conditioners
空调
Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kWh
Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kWh
三峡电量与电冰箱、空调能效对比
标准生效后， 10年节约电量
27
United States Refrigerator Use, repeated, to compare with
Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Ave
rage
En
ergy
Use
per
Un
it S
old
(k
Wh
per
yea
r)
Refrigerator Use per Unit
1978 Cal Standard
1990 Federal Standard
1987 Cal Standard
1980 Cal Standard
1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal
Standard
Estimated Standby Power (per house)
28
Annual Peak Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,0001
97
5
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
MW
Appliance Standards
Building Standards
Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of
~1% of electric bill
~ 22% of Annual Peak in California in 2003
i.e. 22% in 30 years
29
California IOU’s Investment in Energy Efficiency
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
1976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012
Millions of $2002 per Year
Forecast
Profits decoupled from sales
Performance Incentives
Market Restructuring
Crisis
IRP2% of 2004
IOU Electric Revenues
Public Goods Charges
30
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
Historical
Projected Business as Usual
To Meet AB 32 Goal
CO2 Emissions in California: Historical and Projected
31
Non-Combustion (net)15%
Industry Petroleum
8%
Transportation Petroleum
41%
Buildings natural gas7%
Industry electricity
6%
Industry natural gas7%
Buildings electricity
16%
22%
14%
Emissions of CO2 in California by End Use in 2004
Total Emissions = 490 Million metric tons CO2 equivalent
32
Energy Efficiency, 17%
Renewable Energy, 10%
Cleaner Power Plants, 9%
Clean Cars, 28%
Renewable Fuels, 2%
Smart Growth, 15%
Water Efficiency, 1%
Forestry, 20%
Other Strategies , 4%
Strategies for Meeting California’s CO2 Goals in 2020
Total Reductions = 174 Million metric Tons CO2 equivalent
33
Initiatives in Efficiency
“Fleet” Average for Lighting Efficiency to reduce incandescent share
– Measured in lumens/watt Air conditioning standards
– U.S. split into regions based on type of weather
– Hot/dry west differs from warm/wet southeast
– With peak load as the focus, not seasonal efficiency— “SEER” White roofs on existing buildings Benchmarking of Commercial Buildings
– Fine tuning of energy management systems
34
Source: Stabilization Wedges: Pacala and Socolow, Science Vol 305, page 968
Growth =
1.5%/yr
35
Illuminating Space vs. the Street
36
Heat Mirror Windows – Steve Selkowitz, LBNL
Low Emissivity films are required by building standards world-wide. They reflect far infrared radiation. Retain indoor heat in winter, reflect outdoor heat in summer. They double the R-value of double glazing, and the inside pane is warm to the touch – more comfortable
Before low-E, windows were 30% of the heat load of a home – now 15%.
During a Montana winter, a north-facing low-E window, facing a snowy sunlit slope, is a net energy gainer.
“Selective film are required for Commercial Buildings in California. They reflect far- and near-infrared radiation, and halve the solar gain though windows; including car windshields in BMW’s etc.
Modern windows save ~1 Mbod of oil equivalent, = Alaskan oil.
37
Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight
38
http://www.nwhi.net/Vinyl_Windows/Low_E_Glass.htm
39
http://www.nwhi.net/Vinyl_Windows/Low_E_Glass.htm
40
Temperature Rise of Various Materials in SunlightDr. Hashem Akbari, LBNL Heat Island Group
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
50
40
30
20
10
0
Temperature Rise (°C) Galvanized Steel
IR-Refl. Black
Black Paint
Green Asphalt
Shingle
Red Clay
Tile
Lt. Red
Paint
Lt. Green
Paint
White Asphalt Shingle
White Asphalt Shingle
Al Roof
Coat.
Optical White
Optical White
White Paint
White Paint
White Cement Coat.
White Cement Coat.
Solar Absorptance
41
Temperature Trends in Downtown Los Angeles
42
Potential Savings in LA
Savings for Los Angeles
– Direct, $200M/year
– Indirect, $140M/year
– Smog, $360M/year
Estimate of national potential savings: $5B/year
43
Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight
44
From Cool Color Roofs to Cool Color Cars
Toyota experiment (surface temperature 10K cooler) Ford and Fiat are also working on the technology
45
UV Water Purification
46
Kothapeta (Dec. 2005) commissioning test
Source: Dr. Ashok Gadgil, LBNL
Typical interior layout of the WaterHealth
Community System Installation
in Kothapeta
Source: Dr. Ashok Gadgil, LBNL
48
Ashok Gadgil at LBNL points out if UV treatment replaces boiling 10 tons of water per day, each system avoids 3 tons of CO2 per day. An American car emits only 4 tons of CO2 per YEAR
UVW meets / exceeds WHO and US EPA purification criteria Energy efficient: 60 watts disinfects 1 ton / hour Low cost: price, including profit, is under 1 cent (US)/gallon Reliable, Mature components Can treat un-pressurized water Rapid throughput: 12 seconds under lamp Low maintenance: once every three months >50 units now operating in India and Philippines, adding one village/week http://www.waterhealth.com/ If 1 Billion villagers can avoid boiling 10 liters/day of water (by burning kerosene),
the avoided CO2 is equivalent to 5 million barrels/day of gasoline, which is more than half of all US gasoline use.
Ultra Violet Water Purification for Villages in Developing World
49
In Nov.-Dec. 2005, he visited Darfur camps, and showed that with a $10 metal stove, and training to use it, only half the fuelwood is needed.
The stove saves fuelwood worth $160 annually for a refugee family
Since that time, Ashok Gadgil has improved stove efficiency by another factor of two
http://www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/purl/878538-hMpqN3/878538.PDF
Dr. Ashok Gadgil’s Darfur Cookstove Project
50
Contact information
Evan MillsEnergy Analysis Department
Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryEmills@lbl.gov
+ 1 510 486-6784
http://www.ifc.org/led
51
LEDs Powered with Photovoltaics
Evan Mills at LBNL points out the following: If 1.6 billion people could replace kerosene lamps with LEDs,
emissions would drop by the equivalent of 1.3 million barrels of petroleum per day
http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills/PUBS/Fuel_Based_Lighting.html The above estimate was for residential lamps only Including commercial uses, Mills estimates > 2 Mbod For comparison, U.S. gasoline use is 9 Mbod
52
Hurricane lanterns
Teachers grading homework with light levels 1% of western standards
Tanzania (teachers’ home)
53
Productive uses
Tanzania: fruit seller - flame [left]; 1-watt white LED [right]
54
Tanzania: shoe seller - flame [left]; 1-watt white LED [right]
Productive uses: big market driver
Photos: Evan Mills ©
55
Source: Stabilization Wedges: Pacala and Socolow, Science Vol 305, page 968
Growth =
1.5%/yr
56
.
This talk available on my web page
Just Google
“Art Rosenfeld”
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