fuma saigon-presentation-ho-small

SOLVAY in SAIGON

FUTURE MANAGEMENTCHRISTIAN BLUEMELHUBER

SAIGON, DEC 17th 2011

SPECIAL CELEBRATION CONFERENCE

PAST

FUTUREManagement is about the

our Knowledge is about / from the

and our strategies are developed in the

PRESENT

ZEIT

�!� �!�

shrinksHERMANN LÜBBE

PRESENT

pastpast time

futurefuturestartsstartsearlierearlierOUT

OF YOUR

���������� �

FASTER AND FASTER

TIME GOES

available knowledgeavailable knowledgedoublesdoubleseveryevery 7 YEARS

�����

2030but inbut in

everyevery72 DAYS

BASED ON JACQUES ATTALI

�� �

a holy cow

A Wiggins&Rue!i STUDY

of mgmt

EVER HAD SA<5 PERMILLE

SA FOR MORETHAN 20 YRS

�SA FOR MORETHAN 50 YRS

�40 INDUSTRIES

COMPANIES/SBUs,

sustainablesustainablecompetitivecompetitiveadvantageadvantage

ANTIQUITY MIDDLE AGES 19TH CENT 1960-2000 TODAY TOMORROW

� �������������

������������

RENAISSANCE

�#��!�$� ��

SCIENCE FICTION ������� �

TREND RESEARCH

SCENARIOS

���������������

scientificforesight

LUCK

following Pillkahn, p25a shorta short historyhistoryfuture studiesfuture studiesofof

but I think it´s a myth

composer & conducterPeter Drucker said the manager is both

It is very grand and glorious,

HENRYMINTZBERG

Wall Street Journal, Aug 17, 2009

... interruptionManagement is largely about ...

... influencing action... being prepared!

DOESN´T HAVE A FUTURE...YOUR COMPANY BE AWARE!

YOUR COUNTRYYOUR FAMILY

IT HAS...THREE

OF IT!

PROBABLEFUTURE

TRENDSPLANING

WILD CARDSEXPERIMENTATION INVENT FUTURE

DESIREDFUTURE

CREATIVITYSURPRISING

FUTURE

thethefuturefuturemanagingmanaging

„��#�A��#"# � „ ��A��#"# � „� ����A��#"# �

FORECASTRADAR

SURPRISE &DREAM

RADAROPPORTUNITYRADAR

elementselementsfuturefuture

CONSTRAINTS & PARADIMASKNOWLEDGE THAT QUALIFIES AS

CERTAIN programingprogramingof peopleof people

TRENDSCHANGES THAT ARE BASED ON

FACTSpatternpatternrecognitionrecognition

CAOS / WILD CARDSNOT SUBJECT TO

CALCULATION „speculation“„speculation“

PARADISEideal worldsideal worldsHOPEFUL PERSPECTIVES

PROBABLEFUTURE

TRENDSPLANING

futurefuture ONE„��#�A��#"# �

one

what arewhat aretrends?trends?3 interpretations3 interpretations

FOLLOWING LIEBL & SCHWARZ, FUTURES 2010

"9-6,:�),9-::�;0-16;<1;1=-�.--416/

;0);�:75-;016/�1:

15879;)6;�

THE «POP» FUTURISTINTERPRETATION

Trends represent the

of a

TIME SERIES

LONG-TERM COMPONENT

THE «QUANTITIVE»APPROACH

TRENDS ARE

SOCIOCULTURAL

INNOVATIONS

THE «ENTREPRENEURIAL»APPROACH

the newnormalization

+

��������������������������������������������two

three

megatrendsmegatrendsPARADOX

0)4.�41.-�7.

LONG-

)88)9-6;�16

COMPLEXTERM

)97<6,���@-)9:,1..�)9-):�7.�41.-�+<4;<9-��8741;1+:��-+7675@����

)�„/47*)4A�80-676-576

SLOW

��8-9�@-)9

UBIQITOUS

*)+3:4):0�9-:1:;)6+-

+<917<:�4778:�4-),�;7

��#�"� �" ���!

;0);�5)3-:�;9-6,:7�16;-9-:;16/

TIME

��#�"� �" ���

megatrendsmegatrendsMcKINSEY

CoPENHaGENinstiTUTE

M HORX

great rebalancing(power shift)

productivityimperative

global gridconnectedness

pricing the planet(green)

the market state(gvts vs globalization)

ageing population

globalization

technological dev.

acceleration

prosperity

individualizationcommercialization

health & environm

urbanization

ageing population

globalization

woman rule

individualization

urbanization

connectivity

new work:knowledge

SKATEBOARDINGLINK AESTHETICS & TECHNIQUESOF SURFING TO SKATEBAORING

��� ������� ������ �����

������� ���������

INVENTION OF THE URETHANE WHEEL

��������� national Competitions

MAGAZINE: THW QAUTERLY SKATEBOARDER

TONY ALVA. FIRST SKATEBOARDER POP STAR

WORSE DROUGHTS IN HOLLYWOODEMPTY SWIMMING POOLS SERVE AS „HALFPIPES“

FROMDEVIANT TO

normal

trendstrends

FOLLOWING LIEBL & SCHWARZ, FUTURES 2010

TREND?

learnlearnshouldn´t we (also)shouldn´t we (also)

extremes?extremes?from thefrom the

green

greener

greenest

����������

� ��� �� ����

communicate

collaborate

reshaping

���������

cultural

���������what we do��������������� �

from trend to strategyfrom trend to strategy

�������� COMPETENCES

�� ������ RESOURCEStrendsISSUES

:;9);-/@�.795<4);176

TRIGGER/INSPIRATION FOR

INVESTIGATE MUTUAL RELATIONSHIPS

LIEBL & SCHWARZ

futurefuture TWO

WILD CARDSEXPERIMENTATION

SURPRISINGFUTURE

„ ��A��#"# �

SURPRISE &OPPORTUNITY

RADAR

peppered mothpeppered moth

BIRCH TREE

EXPECTEXPECTtotosomethingsomething

TO BEMENTALLY READY

FOR IT

WEIK & SUTCUFF, P 33

UNEXPECTEDUNEXPECTEDthethe(surprising)(surprising)

BOLTFROM THE BLUENO PRIOR MODEL

NO HINT IT WAS COMING

wild cards...wild cards...������!� ��"�������������# �����"��"��!��!!#����"����

!#����$��"!�#!#���'�� �

IMPROBABLE�#"�%�������#�����$���� ��������������"�����!��#����!

�� �� ����(�"������!"�������� !

����"�"���!�������

SERIOUS,DESCTRUCTIVECATASTROPHIC

ANOMALOUSNOT PREDICTABLE

NOBODY GETSJUSTICE.

PEOPLE ONLY GET

GOOD OR BADLUCK ORSON WELLS

genericstrategiesCOST LEADERDIFFERENTIATOR

NICH PLAYER

offensivestrategies

CHANGESTRUCTURES &BEHAVIOUR

STRATEGY AS

CreaTINGFit

AMONG ALL ACTIVITIESBTW RESOURCES

AND MARKETS

STRATEGY 1.0 STRATEGY 2.0 STRATEGY 3.0

CAN STRATEGYBE PLANNED?

LUCKAS SUCCESS

DRIVER

SPERMPREPAREDNESS

FLEXIBILITY

«luck favors the prepared mind»

FLUKE LUCKexperi

1 2 3ment

PREDICTED AT ALLCANNOT BE

��������

ACT PROACTIVELY

!� ������"'

� ���

"�$�

PROMOTEEXPLOIT

DISCOVER/PRODUCE

-?7/-67<: -6,7/-67<:

AT ANY ONE TIME, RUN SCORES OF EXPERIMENTS......SEE WHAT WORKS AND WHAT DOESN´T, BACK THE WINNERS, AND UNSENITMENTALLY KILL OFF THE LOSERSERIC BEINHOCKER (ABOUT CAPITAL ONE), SLOAN MGMT REV 99.

futurefuture THREEINVENT FUTURE

DESIREDFUTURE

CREATIVITY

„� ����A��#"# �

DREAMRADAR

PRESENTpast future

PATTERN RECOGNITION

MODELS OF THE FUTURE

HISTORICAL ANAL.

about theabout thefuturefuture

ideasideas

�'��&�� "!

�'��&�� "!�'�„������A

�'��&�� "!!%� ����

DESIGNED; CENTERED ON FUTURE

(CAUSAL) LOGIC. CENTERED ON PASTTIME SERIES. CENTERED ON PAST

FANTASY, IMAGINATION

CENTERED ON PAST & MODELS

JEAN-LUC GODARD

IT´S NOT WHERE YOU TAKE THINGS FROMIT´S WHERE YOU TAKE THEM TO.

bETTER nCRAFT MAN

ePLAYER

DIFFERENTMANAGER

POSITIONING CONCEPTINGIMPROVING

W

improveimprove transformtransform fresh startfresh start����� �����"����#"# ����

5)3-�1;���""� "�������%897/9-::

FAST FOOD SANSHAMBURGER

CREATIVEDESTRUCTIONCREATIVE

DESTRUCTION

futurefutureYOUR��!"����"����!"���

TAUTOLOGY

INNOVATION

TRANSFORMATIONTHE STABLE

THE „NEW“

THE IDEAL

FROM %��"��!

TO

FROM

ACCEPTABLEinnovation

%��"��!POSSIBLE

%��"��!mktg rulesmktg rules

NECESSARYCREATE

acceptance

CHANGEculture

MOMARKET

ORIENTATION

FMFUTURE

MEMORY

innovation

futurefuture

todaytoday

PREPARE THEMIND

EJGX["ECOCTQ FCXKF"RCNOGT

CONCEPT

FM

ÜBERRASCHUNG

FUTURE

MEMORY

ICWNVKGT

FUTUREFUTUREmemorymemory

THINKINGFUTURE

-81:7,1+

8972-+;�:-4.16;7�.<;<9-

THINKINGFUTURE

SEMANTIC

/-6-9)4�-=-6;:

networkmodel

9),1+)4�6->�,-:1/6

networkmodel

INVERSE «U»

new

idea

new

«planted»

preparedmind

-�/��+76+-8;�+)9-�/��01/0�.):0176

thank you!

BLUEMELHUBER.DE