future indicator: accurate forex forecasting indicator

Future Indicatorhttp://futureindicator.com

2013.06.181

Topic

• Reason

• Future Indicator

• Past 3 winners

• Dark knight: to vanish majority

• Basic strategy

• Dark knight strategy

• Signal quality

• Robustness

2

Reason

• People, Organizations, Countries

• Past and future• Think the same, do the same

• WHY market is said to be unpredictable?

3

Future Indicator

• Large number of traders(strategies) about 1 billion

• In 1000 days, forecasted future.

• If they missed once, they will be terminated.

• After 1000 days, only 3 of them remained to tell the future.

• Because of heavy computation, a high spec PC will need 15 minutes to finish the computation. And a lental server is used to compute the result and make the web service available.

4

The 3 winners

• Red cowboy: Gambler, largest trade

• Blue fund manager：maximum balance, richest

• Yellow mathematician: best fit.

5

Used strategiesEntry method

6

High speed automatic simulator

Automatic trading library

Mt4 EA translator

Entry

Close

Simulation engine

Analysis engine

Web server

Method of selectionBlue fund manager is selected from 4 strategies in 40 days. In real case, 1 billion strategies in 1000 days.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Balance chart: blue fund manager from 4 strategies

ストラテジ１ ストラテジ２ ストラテジ３ ストラテジ４ ⻘青ファンドマネジャー

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Strategy1 Strategy2 Strategy3 Strategy4 Blue fund manager

The 4th

• Black：dark knight、to vanish the majority

• Not a past winner, watch only others’ positions

• The other 3 computed every day, black is computed every 5 minutes

• Black could change its direction suddenly

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Dark knight pattern

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Positions of majority

Stoploss of majority

Dark knight direction

Dark knightRational market: majority were stop hunted

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Positions of majority

Stoploss of majority

Dark knight direction

Dark knightIrrational market: majority buy more or delete their stoploss.

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Positions of majority

Stoploss of majority

Dark knight direction

Buy zone and sell zone

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Buy zone

Sell zoneDark knight direction

Basic strategy

• Only use past winners(Red, blue and yellow)

• Current price is in buy zone or sell zone

• Target price is 1% larger or smaller than current price

• USD/JPY=100.00 => 100PIP

• USD/JPY=80円 => 80PIP

• EURUSD=1.30 => 130PIP

• EURUSD=1.60 => 160PIP

• Stop loss by 0.5%

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2012.07.24

Future

Long(buy) signal：1.20418Forecast：160-330pip　Result：350pip14

2012.08.02

Future

Long(buy) signal：1.21332Forecast：150-380pip　Result：300pip15

2012.08.09

Future

Long(buy) signal：1.22664Forecast：190-280pip　Result：320pip16

2012.08.15

Future

Long(buy) signal：1.22638Forecast：230-320pip　Result：400pip以上17

2012.08.24Future

Long(buy) signal：1.24810Forecast：230-280pip　Result：700pip18

2012.09.04

Future

Long(buy) signal：1.25548Forecast：180-270pip　Result：600pip19

2012.09.24

Future

Long(buy) signal：1.28908Forecast：190-280pip　Result：

240pip損切り100pipが必要20

2012.10.09

Future

Long(buy) signal：1.28586Forecast：170-310pip　Result：290pip21

Dark knight strategy

• Entry when break out dark knight buy zone or sell zone

• Stoploss/Takeprofit should be adjusted with dark knight bar.

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2013.01.25

Future

Long(buy) signal：1.34721Forecast：120-210pip　Result：240pip23

2013.02.04

Future

Short(Sell) signal：1.35196Forecast：130-210pip　Result：490pip24

2013.02.07

Future

Short(Sell) signal：1.34538Forecast：240-310pip　Result：500pip25

2013.02.25Future

Short(Sell) signal：1.31000Forecast：180-230pip　Result：270pip26

2013.03.13Future

Short(Sell) signal：1.29629Forecast：140-210pip　Result：220pip27

2013.03.18Future

Short(Sell) signal：1.29670Forecast：170-240pip　Result：220pip28

2013.03.19Future

Long(buy) signal：1.28434Forecast：170-280pip　Result：200pip普通ストラテジシグナル29

2013.03.18Future

Short(Sell) signal：1.29670Forecast：170-240pip　Result：220pip30

Signal quality

• Takeprofit 50~300PIP, much larger than other forex signal services

• Very clear target price with more than 70% hit in 10 days.

• More 80% of signals can reach more 50PIP profit.

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Signal qualityUSD/JPY　2004/11-2013/05

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Black Red Yellow Blue All

Signals number

Number of completions

Average completions

(PIP)

Completion rate

540 456 448 428 1872

237 290 316 302 1145

176 134 142 139 146

43.9% 63.6% 70.5% 70.6% 61.2%

Maximum profit in 10 daysUSDJPY　2004/11-2013/05

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Black Red Yellow Blue All

>=500PIP

400-499PIP

300-399PIP

200-299PIP

100-199PIP

50-99PIP

<50PIP

All

24 3 29 23 79

13 13 20 16 62

44 43 42 45 174

91 86 84 78 339

163 116 106 110 495

100 86 83 73 342

105 109 84 83 370

540 456 448 428 1872

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Black Red Yellow Blue All

>=500PIP

400-499PIP

300-399PIP

200-299PIP

100-199PIP

50-99PIP

<50PIP

All

4.4% 0.7% 6.5% 5.4% 4.2%

2.4% 2.9% 4.5% 3.7% 3.3%

8.1% 9.4% 9.4% 10.5% 9.3%

16.9% 18.9% 18.8% 18.2% 18.1%

30.2% 25.4% 23.7% 25.7% 26.4%

18.5% 18.9% 18.5% 17.1% 18.3%

19.4% 23.9% 18.8% 19.4% 19.8%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Maximum profit in 10 daysUSDJPY　2004/11-2013/05(%)

Manual backtest

• Long／Short at close of the day

• Wait target to be hit in 10 days.

• When not hit、

• If 30PIP more profit is archieved, move stoploss to half the maximum profit.

• Else, stop loss at -100pip

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All (0.1 lot for each signal)

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Red cowboy (0.1 lot for each signal)

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Yellow mathematician(0.1 lot for each signal)

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Blue fund manager(0.1 lot for each signal)

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黒:ダークナイト（注文１枚ずつ）

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赤黄青黒全体 2013年1-5月(10枚ずつ)

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Remark

• These backtests are generated by historical data. They are not the future performance.

• In real trading, it is possible that stoploss is larger than expected, while takeprofit is smaller.

• And other reasons, such as spread, slippage etc can also affect the result.

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Robustness

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• Long／Short at close of the day

• Wait target to be hit in 10 days.

• When not hit、

• If 60PIP more profit is achieved, move stoploss to half of the maximum profit.

• Else, stop loss at -150pip

Robustness

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Robustness（USD/JPY　2004/12/1-2013/05/1）

half=30stoploss=100

half=50stoploss=120

half=60stoploss=150

half=100stoploss=200

PIP

0.1 Lot per signal

0.1 lot per signal per year

Win rate

Profit factor

171,056 146,381 125,944 68,534

17,105,600円 14,638,100円 12,594,400円 6,853,400円

2,012,423円 1,722,135円 1,481,692円 806,279円

88.5% 80.7% 77.8% 69.6%

8.919 4.370 3.018 1.602

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Robustness（EUR/USD　2009/7/16-2013/05/1）

half=30stoploss=100

half=50stoploss=120

half=60stoploss=150

half=100stoploss=200

PIP

0.1 Lot per signal

0.1 lot per signal per year

Win rate

Profit factor

71,392 63,600 54,989 33,801

$71,392 $63,660 $54,989 $33,801

$17,848 $15,915 $13,747 $8,450

89.8% 86.6% 84.7% 80.4%

6.900 4.336 3.025 1.728

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Thank you

• Please feel free to contact • http://futureindicator.com• info@futureindicator.com• facebook: FutureIndicator

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