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Future Trends & ThemesSummary

Presented to Executive Steering Committee:April 12, 2017

22

Future Themesand Trends

Vision Workshop – Regional/Local Themes

Preparing forthe impact ofdemographicand economictrends that willreshape theentire region.

Creating asense of placeto attract newhigh-qualityworkers, who inturn attracthigh-qualityemployers.

Adapting travelpatterns for animprovedquality of life.

Supportingmultimodaltravel and high-capacity transitnetworks toconnectjurisdictionalactivity centers,and to connectto the region’score.

Supportingtransit-orientedgrowth.

The region and the Prince William area share the following key themes:

33333

National& Industry

Trends

Population&

Employment

Land Use

TravelDemand

SocialPreference

Technology

The Regional/Local themes and supporting information from National/industrytrends provide important insight into the future facing the PWC area and PRTC.

Preparing for Demographic andEconomic Trends

4

Significantly higher population growth rate

Preparing for demographicand economic trends

5

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030 2030 - 2040

Fore

cast

Incr

ease

inPo

pula

tion

Year

Prince William County

Virginia

United States

Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics; US Census

6

Lack of affordable housing in the DC Coreforcing out even high wage earners

Preparing for demographicand economic trends

Competitive employment market, strong economy

7

Une

mpl

oym

entR

ate

Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics

Preparing for demographicand economic trends

Diverse Economy(Top Five Industries in Prince William CountyArea)1. Local and Federal Government2. Retail Trade3. Accommodation and Food Services4. Construction5. Health Care and Social Assistance

Data Center Investment• $2.4 Billion in Capital investment and

370 new jobs (2011-2016)• 10,000 acres identified as Data Center

Opportunity Zone in 2016

8Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics

Preparing for demographicand economic trends

Fuel price decline has leveled off andprices are likely to increase

9Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics

Preparing for demographicand economic trends

Commuter benefits will remain onpar with parking benefits

10Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2012-2013 2014-2015 2016

Federal Transit and Parking Monthly Benefits

Parking Benefit Transit Benefit

Preparing for demographicand economic trends

Creating a sense of place

11

Common regional and local objectives and strategies tohelp create communities of choice:

Creating a Sense of Place

12

• Attracting high-quality workers toattract high-quality employers

• Mixed-used walkable communities• Promoting residents working close to

home• Attracting new companies and

businesses to targeted developmentareas

• Emphasizing strategic redevelopmentopportunities

13

Four out of five RECENT move respondents say that having stores,restaurants, and services within 15 minutes of home is very important

Creating a Sense of Place

83%

76%

72%

70%

66%

62%

57%

74%

75%

69%

63%

61%

62%

51%

84%

51%

50%

47%

58%

45%

33%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Having access to stores, restaurants, and services close to myhome (within about 15 minutes) is very important to me.

I would love to live within 15 minutes commute of my workand/or my school.

My ideal neighborhood would have a wide range of differentpeople and ages who live near me.

Communities should prioritize spending on easy, safe, andreliable public transportation such as light rail.

Prominent bike / walk paths from my home to stores,restaurants, and entertainment are part of my ideal

neighborhood.

I’d prefer the option to take close-by public transportation overusing a personal car.

Good public school systems are an indication of a healthy,happy neighborhood, regardless of whether or not I have

school-age children.

Millennials

Gen X

Boomer

Significantly more Millennial and Gen X respondents than Boomerrespondents agreed with most placemaking statements

n = 600

14

Creating a Sense of Place

15

• Areas with higher forecastdensities and a relatively evenpopulation /employment splitpresent best opportunities forefficient local transit service

• Creates financial opportunitiesthrough public-privatepartnerships and/or specific taxdistricts

Creating a Sense of Place

PRTC is well positioned with existing/future services targetedin areas of high-forecast employment growth

16

Creating a Sense of Place

Adapting travel patterns for animproved quality of life

17

of Virginiansbetween the

ages of 18 and 25who could havea driver’s licensechoose not to ordon’t have one

30%

Adapting travel patterns

18

US vehicle travel grew steadily during the TwentiethCentury, but peaked in 2006 and has declined since.

Source: USDOT

19

At the same time, transit use nationally has increased significantly

Source: APTA 2013

Adapting travel patterns

20

PWC Area’s Reduction in Driving Alone OutperformedOther Northern Virginia Rideshare Markets

Source: Virginia Travel Survey

76%69%68% 68%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Prince William Co. Area Other Northern Virginia

2007 2015

Adapting travel patterns

21Source: Virginia Travel Survey

Alternative Mode Commuters are SignificantlyMore Satisfied with their Trip to Work

46%

63%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Drive-alone commuter Alternative mode commuter% satisfaction with work commute

Adapting travel patterns

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Adapting travel patterns

• PRTC and VRE have experienced lower ridership on Mondays and Fridays

• Many employers offer flexible “hoteling” space in place of assigned desks

• Alternative work schedules are becoming more popular to balance personalcommitments

• Office vacancy rates have generallyincreased over the past couple ofyears

• About 3% of the workforce now worksfrom home at least half of the time

Workplace habits are changing. Fewer peopleare going into the office on a daily basis

23

Transit agencies around the country are partnering with TNCs on pilotprograms to subsidize trips or provide connections for the “first and last mile”

Adapting travel patterns

24

Research and pilots of connected and autonomous vehicles are becoming moreprevalent but significant impacts to mobility are still years away

Adapting travel patterns

Supporting multimodal travel andhigh-capacity transit networks

25

26

Supporting MultimodalTravel

National/Regional Trends• Connecting centers within jurisdictions and connecting to the

regional core• Interconnected regional network of Express Lanes• High-capacity transit implementation

Common Local Objectives & Strategies• Increase percentage of citizens using transit• Provide access to alternative transportation choices• Reduce the need for automobile usage• Support technology for use in making travel decisions

27

Urban areas that are reaching the “built out” point are focusing on optimizing highwayoperations / maximizing throughput (e.g. express lanes, rideshare / transit).

Source: VDOT

Supporting MultimodalTravel

Regional MultimodalProject

PRTC Role

Description Partner inPlanning

OperatingService

Transform 66: Inside theBeltway

New commuter bus service R R

Transform 66: Outsidethe Beltway

New and expanded commuter busservice, expanded park-and-ridelots, and new TDM strategies

R R

I-395/I-95 Express Lanes Currently operating commuter busservice; ongoing study of additionalimprovements

R R

Richmond Highway(US 1) BRT

Proposed bus rapid transit R --

Rail Expansions Planning for VRE and Metrorailexpansions R --

28

PRTC will continue to play a major role in partnering on transportationinitiatives at all government levels

Supporting MultimodalTravel

Prince William CountyProposed Future Transit Alternatives

29

Locally, the PrinceWilliam County area

has envisioned afuture network of

high-capacity transit

Supporting MultimodalTravel

30

78%

22%

Park-and-Rides with PRTC Service (2016) –Approximately 9,300 spaces

Occupied Non-Occupied

• Park-and-Ride lots with PRTC busservice are well-utilized, especiallyones closest to interstates

• The Transform 66 Project includesapproximately 4,000 new spacesalong the I-66 Corridor with directaccess to new Express Lanes

• Park-and-Ride lots also used forcarpooling, vanpooling, andslugging

Supporting MultimodalTravel

31

PRTC has thepotential toincrease its

alreadyextensive

coverage ofthe region’s

activitycenters

Supporting MultimodalTravel

Supporting transit-oriented growth

32

National/Regional Trends• Mixed-use activity centers• Decrease in auto-focused

development

Common Objectives & Strategies• Standards for new development

to ensure accessibility to transit• Complete Street policies• Targeted growth areas

More than halfof all jobs in Northern

Virginia are alreadywithin a quarter-mile

of a transit facility

33

Supporting Transit Oriented Growth

34

The number ofjobs within

PRTC servicearea is amongthe highest of

NorthernVirginia bus

systems and isexpected to

grow

Source: NVTC/Virginia Tech

Supporting MultimodalTravel

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Fore

cast

edEm

ploy

men

t

Year

Forecasted Transit-Accessible Employment (MWCOG)

Metrobus Connector PRTC ART LCT DASH Metrorail CUE VRE

35

Nationally, regionally, and locally, jurisdictions and private developers are favoringa transit-oriented, mixed-use development approach (decreased emphasis on cars)

Supporting Transit Oriented Growth

Forecast Increase in Activity(Jobs + People)2015 - 2040

Fewer than 250

250 - 500

500 - 1,000

1,000 - 2,500

2,500 - 5,000

5,000 - 7,500

More than 7,500

Source: MWCOG Round 8.4 Forecasts

forecasted newjobs and people

within thePRTC bus service

area by 2040

1.38M

forecasted growthin employment

for PWC,Manassas, andManassas Park

69%

36

Localities with high growth must continue to put in place firm policieslinking transportation and land use

Supporting Transit Oriented Growth

37

Local entities around the Northern Virginia Region, including Prince WilliamCounty, are adopting design guidelines to foster transit oriented growth

• Complete Streets

• Transit Service LevelRequirements

• Lower Parking Minimums

• Enhanced Pedestrian andBicycle Accommodation

• ADA Compliance

Supporting Transit Oriented Growth

38

Transit-supportive areas inlocalities’ future land use plansrepresent potential areas forincreased transit service

Supporting Transit Oriented Growth