future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western balkan, 11-13 february 2013...
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Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan, 11-13 February 2013
EEA activities in Western Balkan region related to forward-looking assessments
SESSION 3: Introduction to getting to know WB scenariosAnita Pirc Velkavrh, EEA
ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES IN THE WESTERN BALKANS: FUTURE
PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION PATTERNS:
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forces shaping the future of the environment in the Western Balkans, in particular the role of consumption and production patterns
Different futures
State
Driving forces
2010
Caucasus
3
Global workshop
OSCE-EEA: Regional security implications of climate change impacts
Regional workshops
Global driving forces Regional Scenarios
Eastern Europe
Food security
Western Balkans
Water availability
Arctic
MediterraneanCentral Asia
Water-energy-agriculture nexus
2010 2011 2013
Regional to Global workshop
Impacts to securityAssessment;Environment and security key messages
2012
SOER 2010 — assessment of global megatrends
Shifting Bases, Shifting Perils, A Scoping Study of Security Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region
EEA Brochure: Using scenarios as tool for better understanding environment and security issues
4
OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN BALKANS IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND WATER SCARCITY
EXPLORATIVE SCENARIO WORKSHOP BELGRADE, SERBIA, 24-26 OCTOBER 2011
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Worksop question:
What are the options for developments in western Balkan region to hedge risks associated with climate change and water availability?
Outcomes:
1. Scenarios on impact of climate change to water availability in WB until 2060
2. Key risks which may occur in 4 scenarios
3. Pathways to some goals to hedge the risks
6
1.SCENARIO QUESTION
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Group 1
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Group 2
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Group 3
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2. Most important and most uncertain driving forces in WB:
• Climate change impacts (high-low) - preselected one selected at the workshop:• Land use changes (favourable- unfavourable)• Economic growth (investment, recovery)• Real resources cost and affordability (availability)
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12
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SFRJ (socialistic federative Republic of Yugoslavia)
Equality
Quite high quality of lifeGood knowledge base
Good environment managementIntegrated water management, strong policies and cross border agreement,
renewable energy dominating
Endless horror
poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, the day after tomorrow., deteriorated environment
,spiral development to negative
high water scarcity, extreme events not managed leading to further deterioration of
economy
Horror without end
poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, ecosystems recovery
drinking water deficit, scarcity in general, water use in agriculture mainly
Yes, we can, Technogarden in Balkan
Green and rich and can tackleIntensive resource use, controlled,
technology driven
Ground water drop, import of water from Russia, energy dependant on imports
Climate change impacts
Eco
nom
ic g
row
th
Sustainable
highlow
Un-sustainable
3. Selected scenarios axes and developed scenarios
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