futures presentation by karl albrecht at dmai's 2013 ceo forum (marco island)

“How to be Your Own Futurist”

- Dr. Karl Albrecht -

Destination MarketingAssociation International

CEO ForumApril 24, 2013Marco Island

Destination MarketingAssociation International

CEO ForumApril 24, 2013Marco Island

“I’m all for progress, butit’s been going on far too long.”

~ Ogden Nash

The “Oh-S***” Future

Whose “Future” Do You Believe?The “Gee-Whiz” Future

What is the Answer?

How Do We Studythe Future of Something?

?

“Forget it, Louis -no Civil War picturehas ever made a nickel.”~ Irving Thalberg, business Adviserto Louis B. Mayer, who turned down“Gone With the Wind,” 1937

GONEwith theWIND

Famous Bad Calls

“Robert Goddard’stheories aboutspace travelare too far-fetchedeven to be considered.”~ Scientific AmericanMagazine, 1940

Famous Bad Calls

Famous Bad Calls

“We will bury you.And you capitalistswill sell us the shovelsto do it with.”~ Nikita Khrushchev,Premier of USSR, 1962

Famous Bad Calls

“I see no reason whyanyone would needa computerin their home.”~ Ken Olsen, founder ofDigital Equipment Corp.,1977

Famous Bad Calls

Ten Things that Will Disappear?

• US Postal Service

• The Personal Check

• The Newspaper

• The Magazine

• The Book

• The Land-Line Phone

• Television

• The Personal Computer

• Privacy

• Colleges / Universities

There Will Always be New Ideas

Square Watermelons?

Low-budget Funerals?

Musical Taser?

New Fashions?

Space Tourism?

Underwater Hotels?

Electronic Tombstones?

The Digital Outhouse?

You’re Always Connected…

Offered Without Comment ...

Social Networking

The Media-Centric Culture

Tech-savvy?

Or, media-addicted?

Figuring out

the new rules

of the game

Strategic Thinking

StrategicPlanningR.I.P.

What Happened to “Strategic Planning”?

Strategic PlanningHas Become…

The “Strategic Conversation”

The “Strategic Radar” Model

Customer

Competitor

Economic

Techno-logicalSocial

Political

Legal

Geo-physical

“Radar” Sector Super Trend

Customer “Proliferating Preferences”

Competitor “The Battle for Attention”

Economic “Dodging Asteroids”

Technological “Smart and Friendly Websites”

Social “The Electronic Culture”

Political “The Quest for Relevance”

Legal “Mixed Signals From Government”

Geophysical “Going Green”

Destination Marketing: “Super-Trends”

Yourmost dangerous

competitorprobably doesn’t

look like you.

TourOperators

Hotels / Lodging

VisitorAttractions

Other Local Visitor Svcs

Airlines /Transport

Destination Infrastruct.

ConferenceExhibitors

ConventionSales

Out-of-townOrganizers

DMO SalesTeam

EventMgmt Firms

Local Organizers

Travel Resellers

Group/TourPackagers

DMO Role: Advise and Support Marketers

Marketing & Sellingto the Visitor

IndustryPartners

CommunityLeaders

LocalGovernments

Developing the Destination

Visitor-Centric Strategic Map for DMOs

Delivering Servicesto the Visitor

DMO Role: Advocate the Total Visitor Experience

DMO Role: Support & Develop the Dest’n Strategy

Publishers / Advertisers

Travel Mavens

Informing, Educating, & Advising the Visitor

DMO Role: Inform, Educate & Advise the Visitor

Visitors:Leisure /

Conference /Business

Who Manages the Visitor Experience?

The Cycle of Visitor Experience (CVE)

Visitor

POP’s

Points of Perception

(POP’s)

Planning

Departure

If the cycle is unmanaged, the quality of the visitor experience regresses to

mediocrity.

If the cycle is unmanaged, the quality of the visitor experience regresses to

mediocrity.

DestinationInfrastructure

DestinationInfrastructure

Arrival

The pursuit of mediocrity is

always successful.

Karl Albrecht

The pursuit of mediocrity is

always successful.

Karl Albrecht

Resources for D.I.Y. Futurists

World Future Society:www.wfs.org

Trend Spotting: www.shapingtomorrow.com

“No problem can be solvedfrom the same consciousnessthat created it. We must learn

to see the world anew.”

- Albert Einstein

New Thinking for a New World

www.KarlAlbrecht.com/downloads/CEOForum2013.pdf

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