gavin newsom for the future of california
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FOR THE
FUTURE OF CALIFORNIA
Campaign Document
Lieuwe M. Verhage
PolySci 106A: CAMPAIGN STRATEGY, MEDIA ANDMESSAGEDan Schnur
University of California, BerkeleyDecember 11, 2008
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Marius Verhage1Introduction
This campaign document is written for the Gavin Newsom for Governor campaign, which is
created in order to draft a campaign for Gavin Newsom, Mayor of San Francisco, which will
convince a majority of the voters (52%) to vote for him in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election.
As a premise, the states Democratic and Republican Primary have already been held, and our
candidates opponent in Steve Poizner, current State Insurance Commissioner.
The current Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, won the 2003 recall election, and was
reelected in 2006. His two term governorship means he is term-limited and has, under current
state law, no right to seek reelection, which makes the 2010 race one without incumbents.
While Schwarzeneggers approval ratings have been as high as 61% in September 2004, they
have declined considerable during the last couple of monthsbetween March to September
2008 he fell 6 points to a 38% approval ratting.i This is largely due to the state, national and
international economic crisis, with jobs and the economy being named the most important
issue by 44% of Californians, a 31 point increase in importance since September 2007. The
bad economic position of the state as well as the nation also reflects constituents opinion in
which direction the state is going. With a majority along all affiliation lines (72% Democrat,
68% Republicans and 60% Independents) Californians think that the state is going in the
wrong direction.ii
This situation shows that California is ready for a Governor with a new approach, one that
can bring back the voters belief and confidence in the state. Gavin Newsom, by emphasizing
his innovative and pragmatic approach to problems as his two terms as Mayor of San
Francisco show, can bring back the voters faith in the future of the state. He can do this by
focusing on three issue: 21st Century Economy, Education and Equality, with which he will
Bring Back the Future to California.
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Marius Verhage3During his first term as Mayor, Newsom focused on bringing businesses to the city by
granting them tax incentives, with a special focus on biotech and high tech companies. The
latter was in line with Newsoms efforts in making San Francisco more environmentally
friendly, with at its crowing glory the joining of the Kyoto Protocol. Major Newsom
proposed even farther-reaching measures that would lead to carbon neutrality of the city
government by 2020.iv
One of the methods to do so, is building in an energy friendly manner, as proposed by
Newsoms Better Neighborhoods and HOME plans, which, in five years, will create more
than 15.000 new houses in the cityof which 33% especially build for low and very low
income households. These programs, combined with the Care not Cash and the Homeward
Bound measures, contribute to the almost 40% decline in homeless people on the streets of
San Francisco, measures that gave Newsom national attention. v
He continued the extension of the city funded health insurance program to young adults
previously only to childrenand in 2007 he proposed a universal health care program for all
citizens. This shares the burden of costs amongst the city, workers and employers, and
provide health care for 82.000 uninsured. Furthermore, he also created pre- and afterschool
programs for all children in San Francisco.vi
In order to combat the recent economic crisis, Major Newsom proposed an increase of the
minimum wage from $9.36 to $9.79, to be effective on January 1, 2009. At the same time, he
asked the supervisors to support cuts for most programsincluding social services and
healthand mentioned that layoffs where inevitable. Furthermore, Newsom proposed a
Economic Stimulus Package, which focused on accelerating capital projects.vii
Strengths/weaknesses
His abundant plans, however, show one of Newsoms biggest policy weaknesses, since most
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Marius Verhage4of his plans considerably pressure the city budget. During financially hard times, it will be
difficult to deliver the voters exactly what he has promised them.
His attitude towards the press, as well as his highly publicized affair, have given Newsom
a public image that could be hurting him during an election. However, he tries to circumvent
this issue by relying more on media outlets that he can controla radio show, YouTubeand
is praised for it.
His steadfast stance on same-sex marriage, while popular amongst certain voter groups,
could play a huge role in the decision making process of voters opposing him on that single
issue. The use of one of his speech in the Yes on Prop 8 advertisement could work as Dean
Scream for Newsom.
Steve Poizner
Biography
Born on January 4, 1957 in Houston, TX, Poizner attended the University of Texas, from
which he graduated in 1978 earning a BA in Electrical Engineering. He decided to pursue a
MBA at Stanford University, which he successfully finished in 1980. In 1983, he founded
Strategic Mapping Inc., a software company specialized in digital maps for the purpose of
information analyses, which he sold in 1995 for $35 million. He then founded SnapTrack Inc.,
which specialized in GPS tracking technology, which he sold in 2000 for $1 billion. In the
same year, he started to volunteer as a teacher at a San Jose high school, teaching American
Government to 12th graders. From his experiences there, he co-founded EdVoiceand
educational nonprofit which promotes conversation between students, teachers, parents and
state officials on important educational issues.viii He co-founded the California Charter
Schools Association, whose number of schools have doubled due to Poizners involvement.ix
Poizner made an unsuccessful bid for California State Assembly representing the 21st district,
which he lost by a 3.2% differenceremarkable since its a Democratic district, but with a
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Marius Verhage6especially during this economic turmoil, people should not be asked to pay more for their
home insurance.xi
Strengths/weaknesses
Although Poizner was elected to a statewide political position, his weakness is that this
position is fairly focused on one item, insurances. Although his policies are far stretching, and
definitely encompass more than insurance rates (for example his environmentalist efforts with
the pay-as-you-drive insurance), he has not yet have to deal with all the aspects which will
come up during a possible term of governor.
That said, his biography is closely linked to his issues, which is especially the case with
all the efforts he made for education and education reform by creating organizations and
nonprofits. His year as a high school teacher gives him first hand, opposed to second hand
experience in K-12 education.
He continues being a key speaker at several Republican fundraisers statewide, causing
criticism that he is also the Insurance Commissioner up until 2010, and should pay more
attention to that job than to run for Governor.
Poizner, however, has shown to be very willing to pay for a large part of his campaign
himself, which makes it easier to not accept money from those parties that would reflect badly
upon the candidate, and makes it easier to run a campaign that differs from the bases of the
Republican party. However, due to his moderate social views, he might not be able to
persuade the Republican saints to vote for him.
Mirror opposites
Newsoms public divorce, alcohol problem and philandering puts him at a disadvantage in
regards to Poizner, who did not have, or suffers from, such public discussions of his personal
life. Poizner, however, lacks the name recognition that Newsom has, and will have to make up
for this.
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Marius Verhage8Voter History
Polling/issues
In the latest Public Policy Institute of California Statewide Survey, conducted after the
November 4th Presidential Election, shows that not only the race for the presidency, but also
the state ballots received a fair amount of public attention, most prominently Proposition 8. xii
Because of protests following the passing of this proposition, combined with local as well as
national and international attention, this is one of the issues that is still very important for both
sides of the aisle.
It furthermore shows Californians have a pessimistic economic outlook, with 75% stating
that Californias economic outlook is bad. This is mostly connected to the most important
issues voters cite, which is jobs and the economy (with 59%) followed by the state budget,
deficit, and taxes (with 13%). They generally do not trust their elected officials to come up
with measures that will address the issues above, with 63% stating that they have not so
much or no [confidence] at all in them making public policy.
Voting History
With only two statewide elected Republican officialsGovenor Arnold Schwarzenegger and
State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, our opponentand supporting every
democratic presidential nominee after the first George H.W. Bush presidency, California is
regarded as a Democratic stronghold. The two Republican politicians winning statewide
positions, however, shows that there is definitely room in the middle for a (socially) moderate
Republican to win, especially due to the large and growing number of people of declare
themselves DTSs.
Geograpic Support
(A visual representation of the following can be found in Attachment nr 1)
Counties
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Marius Verhage9After analyzing six electionsthree presidential elections (2000, 2004 and 2008) along with
three gubernatorial elections (2002, 2003 and 2006)the general conclusion is that
geographic saints can be found in only 4 countiesMarin County, Alameda County, San
Francisco County and San Mateo Countylocated on the coastal region of the state, while the
Californian inlands comprises twenty-four counties which were sinners in those elections.
While the number of the latter is larger, these counties are also the least populated ones of the
state. Furthermore, the saints do not include those counties who voted for Governor
Schwarzenegger in his 2006 reelection, which for most of these counties (for example
Sonoma County, Napa County and Santa Cruz County) was the only time that they voted for a
Republican rather than for a Democrat. Several factors (name recognition, approval ratings,
and moderate Republican policies) could have attributed to this outcome. Together with those
counties who voted for a Republican twice in the six elections, there are fourteen most
persuadable salvageable counties, which are located along the coast or California, above and
beneath San Francisco. Most notable county in this group is that of Los Angeles County, a
densely populated area with potentially a lot of voters, if the candidate would be able to
persuade them to vote for him. Less persuadable salvageable counties are those who only
voted Democratic in two or three out of the six elections, and are composed of Santa Barbara
County, Sacramento County, Alpine County and Mono County. For twelve counties the last
presidential election was the first time to vote for Democratic candidate in these six elections,
and while this might be contributed to a lot of factors, it at least shows that there is a
reasonable amount of voters who, under the right circumstances, are willing to vote
Democratic. These counties are mostly located on the border area between easily persuadable
salvageable counties, and those which counties are regarded as sinners.
DMA
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Marius Verhage10DMA wise, the saints in California are located in the San Francisco-Oak-San Jose media
market, along with some of the most persuadable salvegeables. Sinners, on the other hand, are
located in the Fresno-Visalia, the Chico-Reding, and Medford-Klamath Falls DMAs. In these
markets almost every county voted Republican in every election, with some minor exceptions
for one or two counties who voted for Barack Obama in the last presidential election. The
Monterey-Salinas, the Yuma-El Centro comprises of 3 counties that voted four or five times
out of the six elections for a Democrat, and is therefore a persuadable DMA. The San Diego
DMAonly covering San Diego Countyis one that only voted Democratic in the last
presidential election, and is therefore not a very persuadable salvageable media market. While
these DMAs are more or less clearly divided amongst party lines, many of Californias DMAs
are a combination of sinners and salvageables (more or less persuadable ones) and are
therefore hard to target. This is especially the case with the Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto
and the Los Angeles media market. While some of the counties covered by these two media
markets are voting for a Democratic candidate in almost all elections, other counties are fierce
sinners and vote Republican. This is also the case for the Eureka, the Santa Barbara-San Mar-
San Luis Obispo and the Reno DMA. Especially the last DMA is interesting, although
technically not a California DMA, since two of the counties covered by this media market
Alpine County and Mono Countyare the only two in the interior who voted two or three
times in the six elections for a Democratic candidate.
Since Gavin Newsom, personally and in the public eye, is closely related to Proposition 8,
it is worthwhile to also look at the geographic support in that race with our recognized saints,
sinners and salvageables map. A map showing the results of this election can be found in
Attachment nr 2, along with a map of the 2006 State Insurance Commissioner election which
was won by our opponent, included as Attachment nr 3.
Demographic Support
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Marius Verhage12elections. On the basis of their votes, the youngest group has grown to undeniable saints, with
also voting for the Democratic nominee in the three other elections. While the 30-44 group
steadily increased their margin in favor of a Democratic candidate, while voting for
Schwarzenegger in 06, this was not the case for the 45-64 age group, which decreased their
margin in the 2004 presidential election from 17% in 2000 to 5% in 2004. They are, however,
still saints since the margin increased again in the 2008 elections. The oldest group (65+),
however, have shown to be regarded as salvageable, by voting for John McCain in the last
elections with a 2% margin, as well as for the Republican incumbent for governor in 2006
with 25 percentage point difference.
Exit polls based on race/ethnicity shows that Whites are a declining part of the total
amount of voters in presidential elections, going from 73% in 2000, to 65% in 2004, and 63%
in 2008. Those who were indentified as Black, however, comprised a growing part of the
voters, starting at 5% in 2000 to 10% in 2008. The Hispanic/Latino vote too, shows an
increase which is even bigger, going from 13% in 2000 to 18% in 2008. The Asian vote
fluctuates from composing 5% of the total amount of votes 2000, to 9% in 2004 and 6% in
2008. This is not the case in the other three elections. On the basis of on whom they cast their
vote, only White and Asian voters can be regarded salvageables, with Whites voting
Republican in the two Bush elections and onlyvoting for Obama in 2008 with a small margin,
and Asians as the only minority group voting for Schwarzenegger in 06. African-Americans
and Latinos are saints, which is also especially the case for Non-White Women.
Amount of education only made a significant difference in the 2004 elections, with voters
who did not graduate from college voting for Kerry with a 1% margin, while those who had a
college degree or more voted for Kerry with almost a 20% margin. The latter can be regarded
as Democratic leaning salvageables, almost always supporting the Democratic nominee with a
large margin. Since annual family income was differently polled in the 2008 elections polls,
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Marius Verhage14An indicator, only polled at three local elections, was in which kind of environment the
voter lived. Voters from big cities are saints for the Democratic cause, voting for their
nominee in all three elections. Smaller cities and suburbs voted for Schwarzenegger, and are
therefore salvageable, while small towns and rural areas (the latter only polled once due to too
little participants) are sinners.
With the special character of Proposition 8, it is worthwhile to also take a look at those
demographics (included as Attachment nr 6). Most remarkable fact from this polling data is
the difference in voting by the younger age group, with only 39% voting Yes on this
proposition. Furthermore, the African-American voters supported the Yes side in larger
proportions than any other ethnicity. Those with a college degree, and those making less than
$30.000 and more than $150.00 supported the No side, while other voted Yes, although all
with very small differences.
Message Targeting
Campaign Message
Gavin Newsom for Governor of California
Campaign Rational: I am running forGovernor to bring the future back to the Golden State
Campaign Theme: Bringing the future back to California
Issues:
21st century Economy: Instead of relying on old institutions that threaten to leave if they do
not get the tax reduction they demand, California needs to become more accommodative to
new high tech businesses and green corporate headquarters. These, and not the old
institutions, hold the future of our economy, and by focusing on areas in which our state has
always been the bestbeing green and focused on progresswe will make our state the main
attraction for businesses that will bring high quality jobs as well as capital to California.
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Marius Verhage15Education: The future of our state lies in the hands of those who are now part of our
educational system, and although California is home to some of the best universities in the
world, our public schools lack behind. As the mayor of San Francisco, I created and expanded
programs as Preschool For All and Afterschool For All, which remarkably increased the level
of education for those students involved. It is those kinds of pragmatic measures, together
with increases in teachers wages, which will change our educational system to one that fits
the future of our state.
Equality: We will not be able to create the future of our state if not every Californian is able to
be fully part of this future. I will continue our fight for an equal opportunity for everybody,
whether this opportunity is marriage equality, or equal access to health care by providing a
universal health care system. We can not take the next step forward together, if we do not
make sure that no one is lacking behind. This is what I have fought for while I was mayor,
and this is the fight we will continue in California.
This message will show the voters the best that our candidate has to offer, without turning
away from issues that are important to our candidate. With the Californian budget crisis and
(inter)national economic crisis, voters have lost faith in the future of the state, as previously
shown by polls. With Newsoms ability to point to those things he has changed while he was
Mayormost importantly bringing new businesses to the cityhe has the ability to bring this
future to the state as well. Newsom, being an entrepreneur himself, knows what businesses
need, and he has the history of always running on a moderate business friendly agenda. While
Steve Poizner proposes a similar issue in his campaign, Newsom has the experience of
actually being able to change regulatory practices and creating a business friendly
environment, and succeeded in doing so for San Francisco. With the economy and jobs
ranking high on the polls, bringing new businesses, jobs, and capital to the state, and therefore
collecting additional tax money could also help the state recover from the budget.
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Marius Verhage16Education has been a big issue in California for a long time, and although Poizner does
have his first hand experience in being a high school teacher (although only for a year), and
having created several organizations to change K-12 education, it was always from the
sideline, not from within the system itself. Newsoms plans for Pre- and Afterschool have
created sound results, and although Newsom should not propose to make preschool obligatory
for every child by law (since such a Proposition was voted upon and failed a couple of years
ago), he could make the case to make it available to every child.
Equality, carefully described to include all kinds of equality, is a major issue for Gavin
Newsom. With Proposition 8 passed, and possible backlash from the use of one of his
speeches in the Yes on 8 campaign, Newsom should be careful to focus on marriage equality
alone. However, the votes on this single issue have been shifting between Proposition 22 and
Proposition 8, and it is also an important issue with a large part of his saints. Especially this
part of the message should be shifted in focus depending where and to whom the total
message is delivered.
Message for key demographic groups
African-Americans: Key demographic group for Gavin Newsoms campaign will be the
African-American vote. While consistently voting Democratic, they were shown to hold
different beliefs on Proposition 8. Since it will be impossible to win without his saints, Gavin
Newsom should adapt his message in a way that would fit the African-American community.
Instead of talking about same-sex marriage in a civil rights sense, he should acknowledge the
differences of opinion on this issue, but include his position in his overall fight for equality for
everybody. Especially his efforts for universal health care for all Californians can be decribed
as preaching to the choir, and by doing so, Newsom should be able to persuade African
American to turn out and vote, rather than staying at home. Since same-sex marriage is one of
the only issues which could resonate wrong with this specific demographic group, it would be
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Marius Verhage17best to deliver this message to that group as early as possible. Once they are persuaded, the
African-Americans would be a valuable supporter of Newsoms campaign. This message
should therefore be a combination of a persuasion as well as a base motivational message.
Moderates: A different emphasis is needed for the moderate voters in the state. Their
objection does not lie in Newsoms support for same-sex marriage, since they, too, objected to
Proposition 8 as can be seen in the exit poll data, but they are more focused on his economic
policies. Special emphasis should be placed on Newsoms business friendly approach, aka the
first issue, which he has held from the beginning of his career as a politician. He will be able
to connect to economically more conservative voters by focusing on his own entrepreneurial
experience, and show what he has done in San Francisco in order to attract a new kind of
business which, when applied to the state, will create a more sound economic position which
will prepare it for the future. During the recent financial crisis Newsom has shown to not be
afraid to take harsh measures in order to cut the budget and make it sound, while also
stimulating the economy by increasing minimum wages, and therefore the peoples ability to
consume from local businesses.
Targeted geographic message
The Los Angeles DMA: As can be seen from the rough numbers in Attachment nr 7, Los
Angeles county, a Democratic leaning county, is a huge factor in getting all the votes needed
to win the 2010 Gubernatorial elections. While the county supported the Democratic
candidate for State Insurance Commissioner in 2006 rather than Steve Poizner, the county has
voted Republican in the past, for example for Governor. With a high percentage of African-
Americansalmost double that of the state average with 11.2%as well as the fact that the
county voted in favor of Proposition 8, shows that a well emphasized message might benefit
Gavin Newsom in several areas.xiv The message itself should specifically focus on LA county,
and not so much on the counties also covered by this media market since they are mostly
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Marius Verhage18sinners or not easily persuaded salvegeables. Although too much emphasis should not be put
on the fact that Newsom has been mayor of San Francisco, his work in an urban environment,
the fact that he knows the problems faced by its inhabitants should be the emphasis of his LA
message. Within Newsoms issue on equality there is some room to include his programs on
the homeless issue, an urban problem in general. Furthermore, Newsoms measures to make
San Francisco carbon neutral, and therefore, reduce some of the unpleasant side effects from
living in a big city, could also be fitted into his message for a 21st century Economy, while at
the same time stressing the job creation made possible by green businesses, which will not
only be high level research jobs, but also low level entry jobs, which could resonate with
recent immigrants who are usually dependent on these jobs in order to make ends meet. Since
urban communities, as the exit polls show, tend to favor Democratic candidates, this message
could be a base motivational message, only adapted to a not 100% saint environment. With
less references to San Francisco, and geared more towards general urban problems and
solutions , Gavin Newsoms message will be able to fit a Los Angeles audience.
Message delivery
Announcement event
While Antonio Villaraigosa was a fierce opponent during the Democratic primary, which was
a tight race, he has decided to endorse his fellow mayor, Gavin Newsom, for his bid in the
Gubernatorial race. While, as was shown during the primary, they have their differences,
Villaraigosa has decided that it would be better to let his supporters know that he thinks that
Gavin Newsom will do a much better job than Republican Steve Poizner. Newsom, on the
other hand, has offered Villaraigoso a chair position in a newly created commission composed
of all mayors of the large cities in the state, which will advise Newsom as Governor on all
issues, but primarily, due to the historic scope of the ongoing state and national economic
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Marius Verhage19crisis, on policies that will help these cities to further attract new businesses and capital in
order to get trough the economic downturn.
This endorsement will be held on the steps of the Los Angeles City Hall in order to
emphasize the fact that it is the mayor of one city who will endorse the mayor of another city.
This, with a backdrop of average Los Angeles citizens to that endorsement, will also make it
appear as if it is rge city that supports Gavin Newsom as well. The flag of California, as well
as the one from Los Angeles and the United states should be visible in the background, and
Villaraigosa endorsement speech should take place behind a lecture with the Los Angeles seal
on it.
In his speech, Villaraigosa will emphasize the need to work together, across differences,
especially in these economic harsh times, in order to get through this and work towards the
future of the state. Newsom will thank Villaraigosa for his willingness to serve as chair on the
new committee, and they will both be available for questions afterwards. In order to get as
much media attention as possible, the event is scheduled at 10.30 on a Wednesday morning.
Paid media/advertising message
Broadcast
A 30 second general add to address the issue of the 21st century economy. This add, narrated
by Newsom himself, will start with black and white images of old factory buildings and
empty industrial sites. While Newsom narrates his message of how California should not
focus on old institutions for its wealth and prosperity, moving images of bioscience and green
businesses will be appear on screen, with young scientists (age 28-45) working in labs.
Newsom be shown himself, walking on the shores of the bay, with the Golden Gate Bridge in
the backdrop. He will explain how he brought new businesses to San Francisco, and how he
will do the same to the State of California.
Mail/e-mail
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Marius Verhage20A regular mail and an e-mail messages will be sent to all college students in California asking
them to join the fight for the future of their California, including a link which will give them a
free iTunes song if they join the Californian Students for the Future group on Facebook.
This will involve young people into the campaign, by grace of a free song, but will also
receive regular updates of new movies on YouTube, which, if they want, can appear their
Facebook account. This way more and more people will be able to hear about Newsoms
campaign, and since these students are the ones with time and motivation, they will be able to
support some parts of his campaign.
Mechanism to reach targeted voter groups
- Online media adds/applications: With the help of several of the new businesses in SanFrancisco, as well as the already established bond between Gavin Newsom and YouTube,
Newsom will be best to accentuate the future part of his campaign message by making
most use out of the internet. Furthermore, this will create a strong emotional connection
with saints that will help him as supporters, namely younger people who, by majority,
support his social policies, and who are the ones affected by the new jobs created by
attracting new green businesses. His already established presence on Facebook, and his
State of the City address on YouTube, show that this kind of campaign is a priority for our
candidate.
- Tv adds: In the beginning these adds will primarily run in the San Francisco DMA, inorder to motivate Gavin Newsoms saints. When the campaign is up and running, and the
Bay Area saints are motivated and some of the Democratic leaning salvegeables
persuaded, the media buy should focus on the Los Angeles DMA where more persuasive
adds and comparative adds should be shown. In this area some special focus could be paid
by buying slots on channels designated for ethnic minorities to get persuade these usual
saints to vote for a candidate who also fights for their equality.
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Marius Verhage22Summary
Benchmark
The 2006 Gubernatorial Elections was won by the Republican candidate for several reasons,
which will play be little to no role during the 2010 elections. First of all, Schwarzenegger was
the incumbent for this office, making him statistically more likely to win the elections due to a
number of factors. Furthermore, Schwarzenegger still held considerable face and name
recognition, which non of the Democratic candidates were able to pull, since they, as polls
showed, had little face recognition. On top of that was the major shift of policy emphasis as
well as direction of Schwarzenegger, who increasingly vocally favored measures he
previously opposed, and which changed him from a Republican moderate into a center of
even center-leftist politician. By doing so, he prevented his opponents from passing him on
the left, and with no major opposition from the right, he was able to hold on to his seat.
Since this race will be one without incumbent, and Republican candidates usually are not
as middle of the road as Schwarzenegger proved, since their constituencies are far more
conservative, the 2010 race will be more accommodative for a moderate Democrat as Gavin
Newsom.
Targeted areas of improvement
First of all, were Angelides was not known or recognized by the voters, this will not likely be
any problem with Gavin Newsom. His involvements have granted him much local as well as
national attention, and this will hopefully work in his favor.
Being the Mayor of San Francisco gives him the advantage of being close to his saints, and
while he is regarded by some as being too much of a Republican, even those voters will likely
vote for a candidate that is closer to them then the Republican opponent. Although there are
currently some debates on his role in the No on Proposition 8 movementsome suggests that
it has only harmed the movement, rather than helpedhis dedication to the issue of equality
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Marius Verhage23will help him create a vast base of supporters, as is shown by the Fight H8 demonstrations,
and persuade them to spent time and effort in someone who would support their issue.
Being the Mayor of a city that is despised by inland conservative counties, might create a
fierce opposition from socially conservative Republicans. Although this might seem like a
blow in the face, it might actually work out in Newsoms benefit. Due to the strong
conservative base, our opponent, Steve Poizner, will either have to give in to some of their
demands, which will make him lose the support of the large an growing group of moderates in
the state, or, alternatively if he decides not to give in, will make him lose the support and
dedication from his Republican base. Either way, this might prevent him from getting the
needed support and votes to win the election. Newsom, however, should not be carried away
by this, and should stay on track of his positions in order not to scare away Democratic saints
as the African-American community, which will be crucial to win the Los Angeles County
elections.
Salvageable voters will be persuaded to vote for Gavin Newsom by his moderate economic
policies, as well as his pragmatic approach he has shown while being Mayor of San Francisco.
His record, as well as his ideas for the future, will provide solid reason for fiscally
conservative, but socially progressive moderates to support Newsom for Governor.
Message/issues necessary to accomplish improvement
Angelides was unknown, and therefore did not ever expanded his window of opportunity to
get his message through. Newsom did already establish a connection with voters, and while
this might not always be a positive one, he has a positive yet realistic message for the future
of the state. This overall positive approach is needed in times when voters are worried about
the direction of the state, as well as disenfranchised with the people they have elected to
govern.
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Attachment nr 1
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Attachment nr 2
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Attachment nr 3
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California Governor and Senatorial Elections 2004, 2006 and 2006
Exit Polls
2004 2006
Total Boxer Jones Feinstein Mountjoy
100% 58 38 100% 59 3
Gender
Men 48% 53 44 49% 55 3
Women 52% 65 34 51% 63 3
Age
18-29 21% 64 33 14% 65 2
30-44 28% 58 40 22% 59 3
45-59 27% 59 38 35% 58 3
60+ 24% 55 43 29% 58 3
Age
18-64 84% 60 38 81% 60 3
65+ 16% 57 40 19% 59 3
Race/Ethnicity
White 66% 51 47 67% 53 4
African-American 6% 86 14 4% 87 1
Latino 21% 73 23 19% 71 2
Asian 4% 76 24 6% 70 2
Race and Gender
White men 32% 43 54 33% 49 4
White women 34% 58 41 34% 57 3
Attachment nr 4
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Non-White men 17% 73 24 16% 66 2
Non-White women 18% 77 21 17% 78 1
Education
Not a college graduate 54% 55 43 49% 59 3
College degree or more 46% 62 35 51% 60 3
Annual family Income
Under $15.000 8% 70 26 6% 75 1
$15.000 to $30.000 13% 69 28 11% 66 2
$30.000 to $50.00 19% 61 35 1% 64 2
$50.000 to $75.000 23% 55 42 20% 51 4
$75.000 to $100.000 15% 56 43 17% 58 3
$100.000 to $150.000 14% 60 40 18% 59 3
$150.000 to $200.000 5% 49 50 6% 57 3$200.000 or more 4% 39 58 8% 60 3
Union member
Yes 17% 62 35 18% 65 3
No 83% 57 41 82% 58 3
Voting Status
First-time voter 12% 70 27 11% 59 4
Voted before 88% 57 41 89% 54 4
Political Ideology
Liberal 26% 93 6 25% 87
Moderate 46% 64 33 45% 69 2
Conservative 28% 21 78 30% 22 7
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Party Affiliation
Democrats 40% 92 6 41% 94
Independents 27% 64 31 25% 63 2
Republicans 33% 15 83 35% 16 7
Religion
Protestant 44% 46 53
Catholic 29% 67 29
Jewish 4% 79 20
None 15% 68 30
Size of Community
Big Cities 25% 75 23 19% 72 2
Smaller Cities 24% 56 42 24% 59 3Suburbs 40% 57 41 49% 56 3
Small Towns 7% 42 55 6% 46 5
Rural 5% 42 56 2% #
Size of Community
Urban 47% 66 32 43% 65 2
Suburban 40% 57 41 49% 56 3
Rural 13% 43 54 8% 52 4
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California Presidential Elections 2000, 2004, and 2008
Exit Polls
2000 2004 20
Total Gore Bush Kerry Bush
100% 54 42 55 44
Gender
Men 47% 49 46 48% 53 45 4
Women 53% 57 39 52% 58 42 5
Age
18-29 15% 55 40 20% 61 38 2
30-44 33% 50 46 29% 54 44 2
45-64 39% 56 39 39% 52 47 3
65+ 13% 53 44 12% 57 42
Race/Ethnicity
White 73% 47 49 65% 47 52 6
Black 5% 85 14 7% 84 14
Hispanic/Latino 13% 75 23 14% 68 31
Asian 5% 63 33 9% 64 35
Education
Not a college graduate 46% 52 44 43% 50 49 5
College degree or more 54% 54 42 57% 59 40 4
Annual family Income
Less than $20.000 9% 63 33 8% 66 32
$20.000 to $39.999 18% 51 45 15% 59 40
Attachment nr 5
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Attachment nr 6
Proposition 8
Exit Polls
2008
Yes NoTotal 100% 52 47
Gender
Men 46% 53 47
Women 54% 54 48
Vote by Age
18-29 20% 39 61
30-44 28% 55 45
45-64 36% 54 46
65+ 15% 61 39
Race/Etnicity
White 63% 49 51
African-American 10% 70 30
Latino 18% 53 47
Asian 6% 49 51
Race andGender
White men 31% 51 49
White women 32% 47 53
Black men 4% # #
Black women 5% 75 46
Latino Men 8% 54 46
Latino women 11% 52 48
Education
Not a college graduate 50% 58 42College degree or more 50% 47 53
Annual familyIncome
Under $15.000 5% 46 54
$15.000 to $30.000 10% 48 52
$30.000 to $50.00 15% 54 46
$50.000 to $75.000 19% 54 46
$75.000 to $100.000 17% 50 50
$100.000 to $150.000 17% 54 46$150.000 to $200.000 7% 47 53
$200.000 or more 9% 45 55
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Voting Status
First-time voter 14% 38 62
Voted before 86% 56 44
PoliticalIdeology
Liberal 26% 22 78
Moderate 44% 47 53
Conservative 30% 85 15
Party Affiliation
Democrats 42% 36 64
Independents 29% 82 18
Republicans 28% 4 54
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Attachment nr 7
Votes from Saints and Democratic leaning Salvageable counties to win 2010 Gubernatorial
Election
Based on 2008 Presidential Election
Voters in California = 13.197.173
52% victory = 6.862.529
Saints: Marin = 109.320
Alameda = 489.106
San Mateo = 222.767
San Francisco = 311.714
Total = 1.132.907
Democratic
leaning
Salvageables: Humboldt = 30.807
Mendocino = 27.843
Lake = 11.986
Sonoma = 144.399
Napa = 38.849
Yolo = 53.488
Solano = 98.775Contra Costa = 297.353
Santa Clara = 460.128
Santa Cruz = 78,495
Monterey = 84.545
San Benito = 11.917
Los Angeles = 2.247.352
Imperial = 17.791
Total = 3.603.728
Total Saints + Democratic leaning Salvegeables
= 4.736.635 (69% of needed votes,
35,9% of total vote)
From the rest of the votes (8.460.538) only 16.1% has to vote for the candidate in order for him to win
with 52% of the votes.
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