gianpiero dalla zuanna - migrants and natives two separate populations or one new population

Migrants and natives:

two separate populations or one new population?

The case of immigrants’ children in Italy

Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna, University of Padua

Alessandra Minello, European University Institute

Crude rate of net migration plus

adjustment Per 1 000

inhabitants

Migrants in Europe

Source: OECD 2012

Migration to Italy A triumphant growth

Census

Registry update

Inter-census simulation

Statistical data 2002-2015

Migrants in Italy

8.2% of the residing population

Source: ISTAT

, ,

,

,

,

5 015 437

4 790 405

4 027 627

1 334 889

356 159

Newborns by parents’ migration status Italy, 1999-2014

Number of acquisition of the Italian citizenship, 2002-2014

Signals of a change…

Total

Both Italian parents At least one foreign parent

Both foreign parents

Thousands Thousands

Source: ISTAT

0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000

0-19

20-39

40-59

60-79

80+

Italy 2050 Italy 2015

10 million less 300 thousand less every year

4 million more 115 thousand more every year

Italy needs migrants… UN Prospects

x 1,000 Level of education Low High Total Age 65 512 220 732 Age 20 113 454 567 20 / 65 0.2 2.1 0.8

The replacement of Italian job market in 2015:

Quantitative and qualitative imbalance

Source: ISTAT

Characteristics of the migrants in Italy

They come to Italy to stay…

A strong integration policy is essential to realize (again) the ideas of national anthem, written in 1840s to support the

union of the several Italian micro-states: “di fonderci insieme già l'ora sonò!” “It's really time to join together!”

Our focus is on children…

Census

Registry update

Inter-census simulation

Statistical data 2002-2015

Migrants in the Italian school system

Source: Miur

Preschool Primary School Low secondary school Upper secondary school

1.7 % S. Y. 2001/2002

9.0 % S. Y. 2013/2014

Not still able to cover class divergencies, not even for Italians (Low social mobility)

Migrants in the Italian school system

Contribution of the Italian society and the educational system to assimilation:

Italian school system is not discrimitating between classes before age 15. Italian school is public and free. Ghettos are almost absent and all immigrants are not concentrated into banlieu or specific neighbourhood.

Fast assimilation

• Quantitative survey (Questionnaire)

• National sample: 48 provinces, schools with high presence of migrants (>10% North and Center, >3% South)

• Students fill out the questionnaire • Same questionnaire in every school • Comparison between Italians and children of

immigrants

• Big numbers: 10,000 children of immigrants, the same number of Italians

• The results of a more extended survey performed by Istat in 2014, following a similar metodology, will be presented in few weeks

ITAGEN2 survey: 2006

Minello, Dalla Zuanna 2014 Source: Itagen2

Educational expectations: High School (%) Meeting Italian friends outside of school (%)

Educational expectations, economic resources, social interactions

Last year

10 years

5-9 years

1-4 years

Born in Italy

Low Medium High

In order to be succesfull you need

to be religious: % by time of arrival

and level of education of the parents (Italians)

Women need to

find the right men, to get married and

having a nice family:

% of agreement by time of arrival and level of education

of the parents (Italians)

Children of immigrants

Italians

Children of immigrants Italians

Source: Itagen2

Multinomial ordinal logistic regression models with random intercept: number of desired children

Minello, Dalla-Zuanna, Pierobon, forthcoming

-0,5

-0,4

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

Time of arrival: 10 and more

Time of arrival: 5 to 9 Time of arrival: less than 5

Mean number of sibligns of the Italian

schoolmates

Mean number of desired children by migration status (time of arrival)

Fertility intentions

Source: Itagen2

Persisting gap in human capital

Immigrant-natives differentials in reading and mathematics skills among 2nd graders in Italian primary schools (INVALSI 2009-10).

(Azzolini 2015)

Immigrant-natives differentials in reading and mathematics skills

Children of immigrants C.I.

Children of immigrants

C.I.

“Excellent” grade: % by migration

status and level of education of the

parents

“Excellent” grade: % by migration

status and language spoken at home

Italy vs Europe

Source: PISA data 2009 in Entorf 2015

Math scores Reading scores

Source: PISA data 2012, OECD

• One or two populations?

• One, because the assimilation process is very rapid

• Two, because of the persisting gap in human capital. However, the traditional social class differences are still present also for Italians.

• Fast assimilation can, as a paradox, be negative: if expectations are not fulfilled, resentment grows.

• Necessity of a reduction of the gap, due to diversities in social background and tongue.

• Additional school hours, additional extra activities, in order to close the gap. Simple but essential answers to important questions.

Conclusions

Thanks for your attention!