global economy and business mobility and migration
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Global Economy and BusinessMOBILITY AND MIGRATION
• Prof.ssa Luisa Natale• http://www.docente.unicas.it/
luisa_natale/
• email oli59@mclink.it
MOBILITY AND MIGRATION
4a. MEASURES
Measures
The study of migration focuses on:
A)Intensity (absolute values, rate, …)
B)Distance and direction of flow - that is, specifying the origin and destination of the migration flows
C) The structure of the migrant population according to the main features of biodemographic, socio-economic, ethnic and cultural type
A) Intensity of migration Estimate of NET MIGRATION
Net total of migrants during the period, that is, the total number of immigrants less the annual number of emigrants, including both citizens and noncitizens
NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE
A. Direct estimateFor example: Equation of Population: Italy 2010 (slide
6)Source →//demo.istat.it/index.html→ Bilancio demografico 2010
B. Indirect estimate
Total Population Balance
nPt = nPt-1+nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t
B = birthsD = deaths I = Immigration E = Emigrationt = time, n = type of population (in this case, total
population)
nB∆t - nD∆t = Natural Increase
n I∆t - nE∆t = Net Migration
Total Population Increase
•nPt - nPt-1 = Total population increase
•nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t -
nE∆t
• This is the classical definition of a population balance
The real population balance
• In countries with census and population registers, the balance is not merely a result of natural and migration increase
• Other components are present in a balance (see, for instance, Italy)
The two population balances
• nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t
the classical population balance
• nPt - nPt-1= nB∆t - nD∆t +n I∆t - nE∆t + n OI∆t -
nOE∆t + n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t
n OI∆t - nOE∆t = other registered/cancelled
(n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )= total internal balance
the real population balance (see Italy)
The internal migration balance (n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )= total internal balance
= enrolled from others municipalities-cancelled to other municipalities
It should be egual to zero, but due to late in the
process of registration/deregistration of flows in each
municipalities the balance is always different from
zero (often fifty-sixty thousands of movements, very
scarce in comparison of 1,3 millions of internal
movements)
EXERCISE
•Write: • 1) the Equation of total population in
Italy, 2010, 31.12 (Direct
estimate ,slide 12) • 2) total population increase (Direct
estimate, slide 12)
TOTAL POPULATION BALANCE
A. Direct estimate (Italy, 2010)Population and flows Males Females Total
Population at 1° January 2010 29,287,403 31,052,925 60,340,328
Births 289,185 272,759 561,944
Deaths 286,094 301,394 587,488
Natural increase 3,091 -28,635 -25,544
Enrolled from other municipalities
684,294 690,069 1,374,363
Enrolled from abroad 207,720 251,136 458,856
Other registered 25,830 14,210 40,040
Cancelled to other municipalities
677,372 686,042 1,363,414
Cancelled to abroad 42,037 36,734 78,771
Other canceled 75,655 43,761 119,416
Net migration (comprised other flows)
122,780 188,878 311,658
Population at 31° December 2010
29,413,274 31,213,168 60,626,442
Net migration (not comprised other flows)
165,683 214,402 380,085
EXERCISE
• Natural Increase= nB∆t - nD∆t = 561944 – 587488 = -25544
• Net (International) Migration = Enrolled from abroad – cancelled to abroad = +n I∆t - nE∆t = 458856 – 78771= 380,085
• Technical balance n OI∆t - nOE∆t = other registered – others cancelled = 40040 – 119416 = - 79376
(n IntI∆t - nIntE∆t )=total internal balance=1374363-1363414=10949
Other components (net migration due to other reasons):-79376 – 10949 = - 68,427
Net Migration (other reasons compr.): 380085 – 68427= 311,658
Equation of Population: Italy 2010, 31.12
60,626,442 = 60,340,328 +(-25,544)+ 311,658
where:Natural Increase: - 25,544Net (International) Migration: + 380,085Other components (net migration due to other
reasons): - 68,427Net Migration (other reasons compr.): +
311,658Total Increase: 60,626,442 - 60,340,328 =
286,114
FOREIGN POPULATION BALANCE
A. Direct estimatePopulation and flows Males Females Total
Foreign population at 1° January ‘10 2063407 2171652 4235059
Births 40257 37825 78082
Enrolled from other municipalities 109928 124262 234190
Enrolled from abroad 188,850 235,649 424,499
Other enrolled 13653 8619 22272
Total enrolled 352688 406355 759043
Deaths 2952 2172 5124
Cancelled to others municipalities 107440 121373 228813
Cancelled to abroad 15,670 17,147 32,817
Acquisition (naturalized) 32567 33371 65938
Other cancelled 56255 34838 91093
Total cancelled 214884 208901 423785
Foreign population at 31 December 2201211 2369106 4570317
Net migration (not comprised other flows)
173,180 218,502 391,682
Equation of Foreign population
Population Total Increase → fPt - fPt-1
fPt - fPt-1 = fBt - fDt + fIt - fEt - fNt +fOIt - fOEt +
+ fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t
B=births, D=deaths, I=Immigration, E=Emigration, N=NaturalizationO=technical adijustments, Int = internal moves; where:
fBt - fDt = Natural Increase
fIt - fEt = Net (International) Migration (enrolled from abroad-cancelled to abroad)
fOIt- fOEt =Technical balance (other enrolled-other cancelled)
fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t =Internal moves (enrolled from other municipalities - cancelled to others municipalities)
EXERCISE
Write: 1) the Equation of foreign population
in Italy, 2010, 31.12 (Direct
estimate, slide 12) 2) foreign population increase (Direct
estimate, slide 12)
Equation of Foreign population
fPt - fPt-1 = fBt - fDt + fIt - fEt - fNt +fOIt - fOEt +
+ fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t
B=births, D=deaths, I=Immigration, E=Emigration, N=NaturalizationO=technical adijustments, Int = internal moves; where:
fBt - fDt = Natural Increase = +72,958= 78,082 - 5,124
fIt - fEt = Net (International) Migration (enrolled from abroad-cancelled to abroad)= 424,499 - 32,817 = 391682
fOIt- fOEt =Technical balance (other enrolled-other cancelled)= 22272-91093 = - 68821
fIntI∆t - nIntE∆t =Internal moves (enrolled from other municipalities-cancelled to others municipalities) = 234190 – 228813= 5377
FOREIGN NET MIGRATION
ESTIMATE A. Direct estimate
•Net (International) Migration: + 391682
•Net Migration (other reasons compr.): +391682 – 68821 + 5377 = + 328238
Equation of Foreign Population(Italy 2010)
4,570,317 = 4,235,059 + 72,958 + 328,238 + (-65,938)
4,570,317 - 4,235,059 = + 72,958 + 328,238 - 65,938
335,258 = 335,258Total Increase = 335,258
Net Migration (other reasons compr.): +391,682 – 68,821 + 5,377 = +328238
Natural Increase = +72,958Naturalised = -65,938
Foreign population increase
(Italy 2010)
4570317 - 4235059 = +335258
Resident foreign population at 31 December and demographic balance from 9 October 2011 to 31 December 2011. Italy
M F Total
Foreign resident population at 9th october 1881639 2147506 4029145
Births 9515 9172 18687
Enrolled from others municipalities 26279 31665 57944
Enrolled from abroad 37064 40426 77490
Others enrolled 5745 4957 10702
Total enrolled 78603 86220 164823
Deaths 782 615 1397
Cancelled to others municipalities 26408 32367 58775
Cancelled to abroad 3597 4188 7785
Naturalizations 4756 5127 9883
Others cancelled 32530 29999 62529
Total cancelled 68073 72296 140369
Foreign population resident at 31th december 1892169 2161430 4053599
EXERCISE Calculate the equation of the foreign
population by distinguish each component
Foreign contribution to the increase
• During the 2010 (but the same happened in the previous years…) the total population increase in Italy could be disaggregated in two component:
-100000 -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000
Total
Italian
Foreign
Net migration
Total increase
NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE
B. Indirect estimate
Estimation of net migration (nNMt)
by the availability of natural increase
(nBt - nDt) and population (type n)
in two points (nPt and nPt-1):
nNMt = nPt - nPt-1 – (nBt - nDt)
Example: Italy, 1992-2001
Population at 1 January 1992 = 56,773
Population at 1 January 2002 = 56,994
Total increase = + 223
Births (1992-2001) = 5,416
Deaths (1992-2001) = 5,592
Natural Increase = - 176
Net Migration = ?
Example: Italy, 1992-2001
Population at 1 January 1992 = 56,773
Population at 1 January 2002 = 56,994
Total increase = + 221
Births (1992-2001) = 5,416
Deaths (1992-2001) = 5,592
Natural Increase = - 176
Net Migration = 221 – (-176) = + 397
NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE
B. Indirect estimateWeakness• You can estimate only the balance
(no information about gross flows)• in the case of a sub-national area
you can estimate the internal balance + international balance
• weakness of the measurement in developing countries
1. Indirect estimate : Foreign Born Population
Case study Population balance equation bPt = bPt-1 - bDt + bIt - bEt then: bNM = bIt - bEt = bPt - bPt-1 + bDt “Reduced Equation” (… births are
lacking!)
2. Indirect estimate: Foreign Citizen Population
Population equation
fPt = fPt-1 + fBt - fDt + fIt -
fEt - fNt
Then: fNM = fIt - fEt = fPt –
fPt- - fBt + fDt + fNt
MIGRATION INTENSITY OF INFLOW AND OUTFLOW
1. Interested to both the migratory flows → in and out flow, gross flow and net flow
2. Standardisation by population consistency, age, sex … → gross rate, specific rate
Migratory flows → in and out flow, gross flow and net flow
Considers as (Boyle, Halfacree, Robinson, 1998)
• IMi = Gross In-Migration, the volume of in-migration moving into a place i
• OMi = Gross Out-Migration, the volume of out-migration moving from a place i
In this case Net Migration is defined as the algebraic sum of gross flows:
NMi = IMi - OMi (as in the previous slides…)
Standardisation by population consistency, age, sex … → gross
rate, specific rate
To allow comparison among different places or the same place over time the measures are standardized by dividing the volumes by the average population of the place, so obtaining a RATE
RATES
• IMRi = IMi / Pi x 1,000 that is in-migration rate
• OMRi = OMi / Pi x 1,000 out-migration rate
• NMRi = (IMi - OMi) / Pi x 1,000 net-migration rate
with Pi average population, that is the population on average counted during all the year (or during all the period)
Average population
A good approximation of this average population can be obtained:
a) using the population observed at the mid-term
b) using a semi-sum of the population at the initial and the final period considered.
Noting that in the case in which the observation of flows is made across a non-year period (for example, more than one year) the calculus must take into account this odd temporal reference.
The crude migration rate: an example
Total Population (Italy, 2010) Foreign Population (Italy, 2010)
1 January 60340328 1 January 4235059
31 December 60626442 31 December 4570317
Average (1) 60483385 Average (1) 4402688
Immigration (2) 458856 Immigration (2) 424499
Emigration (3) 78771 Emigration (3) 32817
Net Migration (4) 380085 Net Migration (4) 391682
Immigration Rate (2)/(1) 7,6
Immigration Rate (2)/(1) 96,4
Emigration Rate (3)/(1) 1,3
Emigration Rate (3)/(1) 7,5
Net Migration Rate (4)/(1) 6,3
Net Migration Rate (4)/(1) 89,0
Region
Internal
External
Other
causes
Total
Piemonte 1,0 6,6 -1,4 6,2
Valle d'Aosta 1,7 5,3 -1,2 5,8
Lombardia 1,5 6,6 -1,5 6,6
Trentino-Alto Adige 2,3 5,4 -0,9 6,8
Bolzano-Bozen 1,9 4,8 -0,7 6,0
Trento 2,7 6,0 -1,1 7,6
Veneto 0,4 6,7 -1,9 5,2
Friuli-Venezia Giulia 1,3 5,2 -1,5 5,0
Liguria 1,8 5,3 -1,8 5,3
Emilia-Romagna 2,0 7,6 -1,9 7,7
Toscana 1,4 7,1 -1,7 6,8
Umbria 0,6 7,9 -1,3 7,2
Marche 0,4 6,6 -1,8 5,2
Lazio 1,6 7,3 -1,0 7,9
Crude Net Migration Rate by Region - 2011 (per 1.000 resident). Centre-North Regions
Crude Net Migration Rate by Region - 2011 (per 1.000 resident). South Regions
Region Internal External Other Totalcause
_____________________________________________
Abruzzo 0,9 5,4 - 1,0 5,3Molise 0,8 3,1 - 0,3 3,6Campania - 3,7 2,5 - 0,3 - 1,5Puglia - 2,1 1,9 - 0,4 - 0,6Basilicata - 2,7 2,2 - 0,1 - 0,6Calabria - 3,5 3,4 - 0,3 - 0,4Sicilia - 1,7 2,3 - 0,6 0,0Sardegna - 0,2 1,9 0,0 1,7
ITALIA 0.1* 5,3 - 1,1 4,3
Nord 1,3 6,6 - 1,6 6,3Nord-ovest 1,4 6,5 - 1,5 6,4Nord-est 1,3 6,8 - 1,8 6,3
Centro 1,3 7,2 - 1,3 7,2
Mezzogiorno- 2,2 2,5 - 0,4 - 0,1Sud - 2,6 2,7 - 0,4 - 0,3Isole - 1,4 2,2 - 0,4 0,4
Example
Calculate a immigration pluri-annual rate (IMR), considering:
nP1.1.2010=56,000,000 nP1.1.2008=55,000,000
IM2008-2009 = 900,000
Example: solution
nP1.1.2010=56,000,000 nP1.1.2008=55,000,000
IM2008-2009 = 900,000
Average Population (2008-2009) = AP2008-2009
AP2008-2009 = (56,000,000+55,000,000)/2 * 2 = 111,000,000
Finally:
IMR2008-2009 = 900,000 / 111,000,000 = 8,11 per thousands
Emigration and immigration rate: a paradox
The meaning of the out and in-migration rate unfortunately is not the same. While OMR is clearly a measure of propensity to go out of a population, IMR has not the same interpretation, because the propensity to enter to a specific place i moving from j different places depends of the propensity of these j different places to generate flows towards i. Clearly OMR is a measure of propensity (in other words it is a proxy of a probability), IMR is a measure of impact.
SPECIFIC RATES
• IMRi,x = IMi,x / Pi,x per 1,000 that is in-migration age-specific rate
• OMRi,x = OMi,x / Pi,x per 1,000 out-migration age-specific rate
• NMRi,x = (IMi,x - OMi,x) / Pi,x per 1,000 net-migration age-specific rate
with Pi,x average population at age x, that is the yearly population in age x on average
Specific Rate: an Example. Outflows (abs. value and rate). Male population, Italy 1991
age x Px,t Px,t+1 Average Outflows Outflow Specific Rate
PopulationOAx,t (Abr.)
OIx,t (Interreg. OARx,t OIRx,t
0 292425 279983 286204 237 1072
1 286125 281773 283949 522 2839
2 287855 283370 285612,5 471 2643
3 280235 285289 282762 420 2406
4 281488 278884 280186 407 2034
5 291416 280661 286038,5 429 1779
6 295628 290391 293009,5 409 1855
7 303494 294793 299143,5 423 1542
8 312392 302720 307556 393 1490
9 319078 311715 315396,5 436 1465
10 324159 319253 321706 371 1303
11 336157 324123 330140 467 1689
12 358577 336069 347323 393 1254
13 372766 358533 365649,5 393 1219
14 393400 372696 383048 378 1323
15 416737 393242 404989,5 378 1340
16 437236 416509 426872,5 438 1442
Specific Rate: an Example. Outflows (abs. value and rate). Male population, Italy 1991
age x Px,t Px,t+1 Average OutflowsOutflow Specific
Rate
PopulationOAx,t (Abr.)
OIx,t (Interreg. OEAx,t OEIx,t
0 292425 279983 286204 237 1072 0,8 3,7
1 286125 281773 283949 522 2839 1,8 10,0
2 287855 283370 285612,5 471 2643 1,6 9,3
3 280235 285289 282762 420 2406 1,5 8,5
4 281488 278884 280186 407 2034 1,5 7,3
5 291416 280661 286038,5 429 1779 1,5 6,2
6 295628 290391 293009,5 409 1855 1,4 6,3
7 303494 294793 299143,5 423 1542 1,4 5,2
8 312392 302720 307556 393 1490 1,3 4,8
9 319078 311715 315396,5 436 1465 1,4 4,6
10 324159 319253 321706 371 1303 1,2 4,1
11 336157 324123 330140 467 1689 1,4 5,1
12 358577 336069 347323 393 1254 1,1 3,6
13 372766 358533 365649,5 393 1219 1,1 3,3
14 393400 372696 383048 378 1323 1,0 3,5
15 416737 393242 404989,5 378 1340 0,9 3,3
16 437236 416509 426872,5 438 1442 1,0 3,4
Male outflows rate (interregional and external) by age. Italy, 2010.
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80
age
rate
OEFx,tOEIx,t
Male outflows rate (interregional and external) by age. Italy, 2010.
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
OEFx,t
OEIx,t
The age-model of OEF and OEI is quite the same
Total Mobility Rate: an exampleage x Px,t Px,t+1 Aver. Outflows
Outflow Specific Rate
Pop. CFx,t CIx,t OEFx,t OEIx,t
0 292425 279983 286204 237 1072 0,8 3,7
1 286125 281773 283949 522 2839 1,8 10,0
2 287855 283370 285612,5 471 2643 1,6 9,3
3 280235 285289 282762 420 2406 1,5 8,5
4 281488 278884 280186 407 2034 1,5 7,3
… … … … … … … …
… … … … … … … …
79 124564 137066 130815 45 340 0,3 2,6
80 + 635116 671190 653153 275 1973 0,4 3,0
Total 27547371 27548440 27547906 37853 169400 1,4 6,1
TMT 103,5 446,1
TMT: Sum of age-specific mobility rates
Total Mobility Rate: meaning
Interregional Total Mobility Rate = iTMR
iTMR = 446,1 per 1000 resident
that’s 0,446 per capita, in other words the number of interregional movements attributed to a person during his “fictitious” life
B. Distance and direction of flow
origin and destination of the migration flows is
specified
Model and method → gravitational model, log-linear model
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