global sustainability and local sustainability @ ecolead
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Global Sustainability and
Local Sustainability@EcoLead
Itaru Yasui, Prof.Prof.Emeritus, U of Tokyo
Former Vice Rector, United Nation UniversityPresident, National Institute of Technology and
Evaluationhttp://www.yasuienv.net/ 1
Bankruptcy of the Earth ~Limit to Growth in 21st century
Published December in 2012 To provide information to have an insight
into non-sustainable future of the Earth Author Itaru YASUI Coauthors, 8 researchers below,
Seita Emori NIES Hiroyuki Kawashima Univ. of Tokyo Ayako Sonoda Cre-en, President Koumei Halada NIMS Miki Baba Nikkei Ecology Junichi Fujino NIES Yuuichi Moriguchi Univ. of Tokyo
Hiroyuki Matsuda National Univ. Yokohama
2
持続不可能な地球の限界と未来像
What is your evaluation in 21st Century? 5: Very Serious, 4:Serious, 3:Rather Serious, 2: Moderate for a while 1:Managiable
Climate Change/Extreme Whether
Loss of Biological Diversity
Depletion of Metal Resources
Depletion of Fossil Fuel Explosion of Population/Food
Issues Environmental Pollution
Issues Not Enough Budget to Handle
Issues
3
個人的な評価を書いてみて下さい
Chapter 1.Local Bankruptcy
地域の破綻
& Global Sustainability
地球の持続可能性
4
5
Republic of Nauru Population 9300, 20km2
ナウル共和国
Coral Reef?
Guano in Nauru ナウル産グアノ
6
Guano manure is an effective fertilizer due to its high levels of phosphorus and nitrogen and its relative lack of odor compared to other forms of organic fertilizer such as horse manure.
Guano Depleted in Republic of Nauru枯渇したナウルのグアノ
2 million tons every year Amount decreased from 1989 100 million tons of guano mined High income & No income tax Free electricity Free medical care and free education fee No cooking, always eat outside Laborers mainly from China Economy 100% dependence on export Started to Deplete from 2000 Job less rate 90% No intention to work
7失業率90% 働く意思なし
2012 Drought in USA カンサス州の干ばつ
8
East Part of Kansas, USA
9
10
West Part of Kansas, USA
Center Pivot Irrigation回転式散水機
11
Ogallala Aquifer, Grate Planes, USA
+ +
++
Ogallala Aquifer, USA オガララ帯水層“Fossil Water” 化石水Water from 2 to 6 million years ago
Recharge Speed by rain << Extraction Speed
It is difficult to say, “Yes, they are OK. Because USA farmers are different from people in Nauru.”
12
Water Shortage - Hundreds of Millions of People淡水不足 数億人
Biosphere may become net carbon source植物圏が二酸化炭素排出原因に 湿性熱帯林
Food: Good in Some Place, Bad in Other Place食料事情は地域にまばら
13
30% of Global Coastal Wetlands Lost湿原が失われる
0 1 2 3 4 deg C
Lenton and Schellnhuber (2007)
Tipping Elements and Temperature Rise
14
Sea Level Rise ~ 7 meters in 1000 years or more
氷床の溶解で海面上昇1000年間で~7m
Other Expression of Tipping Points
15
人間活動の
圧力 Recovery Force of the Earth
θ Tipping Point=Recovery Force
Becomes ZeroPressureBy
Human Activities
θ0 TP 90
Energy
人間活動の圧力
地球の復元力
Temperature – History 1000years
16
小氷期の温度もそれほど違わない
Little Glacier: Temperature differences were not so Big!
Mann et al. (2008) より
Little Glacier
Temp. Northern Hemi-sphere
Trends in Living Planet Index
17
=脊椎動物の減少
Loss of BiodiversityClimate Change ⇒ Distribution Change of Plant(Plantae) ⇒ Extinction of Species A typical species becomes extinct within 10
million years of its first appearance Human Beings may last 5 ~ 9 m Years or
more Global Scale Extinction Events When
Scale Cretaceous–Paleogene(K–Pg) ~ 66 Ma
75% Triassic–Jurassic(Tr-J) ~ 201 Ma half Permian–Triassic (P–Tr) ~ 252 Ma 96%
Marine Late Devonian (Late D) ~ 374 Ma
half Ordovician–Silurian (O-S) ~ 450 Ma 60%
Marine
18
中生代白亜紀-新生代古第三紀中生代三畳紀-中生代ジュラ紀
古生代ペルム紀-三畳紀
古生代デボン紀後期
古生代オルドビス紀-シルル紀
種の寿命 1000万年
19
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phanerozoic
属の数
千
五大絶滅
脊椎動物亜門哺乳綱獣亜綱食肉目ネコ亜目ネコ科ネコ属Vertebrata Mammalia Theria Canivora Feliformia Felidae Felis
チーター属、レオパード属、オオヤマネコ属、ピューマ属、ヒョウ属、他に12属 Acinonyx, Leopardus, Lynx, Puma, Panthera 、 12 Others
Numbers of Species (in thousand) 生物種の数
20
昆虫・多足類 菌・カビ
節足動物原生動物
線虫植物
擬軟体甲殻類
脊椎動物
Speed of Extinction
21
1000年間で1000種の生物種のうち絶滅する数
Global Scale Depletion of Underground Resources – Minerals/Fossil Fuel
22
23
Recent Trend: Price goes up!
Commodity Price Indices FoodRaw MaterialsEnergyMetals and Minerals
1990
Probably because ofExcessive liquidity
過剰流動性投機資金
24
By 2050 all reserve will be usedBy 2050 twice of reserve be usedBy 2050 exceed reserve baseReserve Base
Estimated Use Accumulated
Already Mined
Reserve
原田幸明氏提供
Old Metals=漢字がある
25
Degradation of Ore GradesOre Grades of Ni and Cu Mines ( 1885-
2010 )
Australia (% Cu)
Australia (% Ni)
Canda (% Cu)
Canada (% Ni)
USA (% Cu )
森口祐一氏提供
NiCu
0.3%
26
Env. Burden Ranking by TMR = Cu > Fe > Au > Al > Ni
TMR = Total Material Requirement
OthersZnURhPtPdSnNiAlAuFeCu
有用な資源を採掘する結果発生する廃土・廃岩石の量 Weight of Mine Waste Accompanied by Mineral Extraction
27
DevelopedCountries
Forests in DevelopingCountries
From MA=Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (UN 2001~2005)
~1950 1950~1990 ~2050
土地の改変Area Converted
28
We still have enough petroleum. In some sense, TOO MUCH.
Used Midle EastOther
Deep Ocean300~1500m
Ultra Deep1500m ~Ice Sea
EOR Heavy
ShaleOil
Price $/barrel
Reserves vs. Cost for Oil Production
Reserves in Billion Barrel
石油資源はなかなか枯渇しない 気候変動防止の視点→ 多すぎる
29
World Population Prospects, the 2010 RevisionFigure 1: Estimated and projected world population according to
different variants, 1950-2100 (billions)
UN Prospect of Global Population up to 2100 2
Low
High
Medium
“2052” by Jorgen Randers
“Megachange: The world in 2050”
The Economist
Ours
30
World Population Prospects, the 2010 RevisionFigure 2: Estimated and projected population by major area, medium
variant , 1950-2100 (billions)
Asia
Africa
North America
To be Flat Follow the Asian
Trend 50 years behind
Projected Population of Regions up to 2100
Inflection Point変曲点
31
Fertility Rate is important
LatinAmerica
AfricaAsia
Oceania
North America Europe
出生率が大きな要素
Chapter 2.Local Sustainability
under the influence ofClimate Change
32
Typhoon No.30 HaiyanHit Leyte province in the eastern Philippines
33
20日12時
22日09時
25日09時
World Economic Forum ダボス会議Global Risks 2013 Eighth Edition Select 50 risks from 5 fields, Societal,
Geopolitical, Economic, Technological and Environmental
10 risks from each field Total 50 risks with a scope of 10 years
from now An Important Point = Cognitive
Biases
「認知バイアス」 Difficult to Overcome Inevitable to overcome somehow
34
35
Environmental
36
Likelihood 3 3.5 4
Impact4
3.5
気候変動適応策 温室効果ガス濃度の上昇
異常気象頻発
対策不能な環境汚染
抗生剤の効かない病原菌
土地と水路の無謀な改変
37
IPCC AR5 WGⅠRelation between
CO2 Emission vs. Temp. Anomaly
温度上昇は累積の CO2放出量と比例
38
Allowance of
IPCC AR5 WGⅠ
Integrated Assessment Model
Best Available
Scenario?
放出可能な残り予算
CO2 Emission from Fossil Fuel for 2050 and 2100
Target: Anomaly below 2.5 ℃ Delay of some Tipping Elements In order to this, with 9 B of
population In 2050 10 GtC/year Globally Per capita emission 1.1 t C/year/capita
In 2100 4 GtC/year Globally Per capita emission 0.25 t C/year/capita 39
cf. Currenly in Japan 2.7 t C/year/capita
2100年一人あたり放出量現在の1/10
40
Chapter 3. Local Risks
Agricultural Activities and Related Risks
Environmental Risks for Agriculture Environmental Conditions for
Agriculture Water supply ・ Temperature Change
水・温度 Essential Elements N, P, Others
元素 Status of Soil 土壌 農薬
Agrichemicals such as Insecticide or Herbicide
Genetically Modified Organisms 遺伝子組換
Environmental Changes to be considered Change accompanied by Climate
Change Limitation of Natural Resources 資源限界 Water/Soil Change caused by Human
Activities Feelings of Consumers 消費者 水・土の変
化
41
42
Amount of Stream Flow=Fresh Water 2081 to 2100 From IPCC AR5 2013 河川流量=淡水量
DRY
Issues in Locations Location and Availability of Water
Stream Flow will be affected by Climate Change
Ground Water has different Characteristics Turkey, Spain, Portugal, Italy will be dry. In Japan, not so much difference.
Temperature will affect most of suitable agri. products. 農作物の地域への適性・不適正 特産物
Special Products in the area will be affected. Apples in Nagano -> Pairs in Nagano? Grapes and Wineries in Europe already
receive some changes. Germany will be the best place? ドイツ産 ?
43In most cases, Some kinds of Adaptations are required.
何らかの適応策が必須
Water Dependence on Snow or Ice of Glacier - High Mountains
Snow or Ice in winter play role of Reservoir
In spring, water from snow melt used for agriculture
Climate Change -> Early snow melting in winter -> No water reservoir for Agriculture
This tendencies already apparent in Himalayan or Tibetan Region and similar in Andean Area
Adaptation : To construct new water reservoirs for Agriculture
44
山岳地帯農業
雪は貯水池
春には水不足
ヒマラヤ・チベット
アンデスも
貯水池建設は必須
45
Fragility is high in water supply in High Mountains
Important to keep less than 2 degree 2℃程度以下に抑えたい
≒ 2℃ ≒ 5℃
Fertilizer Issue Nitrogen Fertilizer
Harbor-Bosch Process’ success to make Ammonia from Nitrogen and Hydrogen
Huge Energy Consumption More than 1% of Global Energy Consumption
Side Effects of Excessive Use=Over-fertilization
Pollutant to Underground Water Eutrophication(Nutrient Enrichment) of Lake
and River Water Increase N2O(one of GHG) emission from
Patty Fields MUST: Appropriate Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer
46
肥料の問題窒素肥料
ハーバーボッシュ法
地下水汚染
富栄養化
一酸化二窒素=温室効果ガス
20世紀の人口爆発の原因は穀物単収(単位面積当たりの収穫量)の増加にある フランスの小麦 出展 Michel & FAO
1,800 1,836 1,872 1,908 1,944 1,980 2,016 0
2
4
6
8
単収
(t/ha)
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
The amount of Nitrogen Fixed by Harbor-Bosch Process (ton)
Harbor demonstrated the process in the summer of 1909.
Ammonia was first manufactured on an industrial scale in 1913.And replaced "Chile saltpetre“for munitions used in World War 1 (1914-1918).
川島博之氏提供
チリ硝石の代替第一次世界大戦
So called global population explosion depended onthe increase in grain production, which is expressed in unit crop (t/ha). French Wheat 出展 Michel & FAO
1,800 1,836 1,872 1,908 1,944 1,980 2,016 0
2
4
6
8
単収
(t/ha)
川島博之氏提供
単収の増加は5倍
Phosphorous Fertilizer P as Phosphate
Inevitable For All Plants: To be used Nucleic Acids, ATP and membrane lipids.
Guano from Nauru, Depleted : Guano is a highly effective fertilizer due to its exceptionally high content of nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium, three nutrients essential for plant growth
P : Exist as a major component of the Earth. No.11 in the scale of abundance.
F : Coexisting F may be a problem. F is No.13 in the scale of natural abundance.
49
リン肥リン酸という物質
核酸・細胞膜脂質
P は多く存在
フッ素は有害物
Natural Abundance of Elements, Top 17
1位 酸素 Oxygen 46%2位 ケイ素 Silicon 28%3位 アルミニウム Aluminum 8%4位 鉄 Iron 5%5位 カルシウム Calcium 4%6位 ナトリウム Sodium 3%7位 カリウム Potassium 2%8位 マグネシウム Magnesium 2%9位 チタン Titanium 0.5%10位 水素 Hydrogen 0.15%11位 リン Phosphorus 0.1%12位 マンガン Manganese 0.1%13位 フッ素 Fluorine 0.1%14位 バリウム Barium 0.05%15位 炭素 Carbon 0.03%16位 ストロンチウム Strontium 0.03%17位 イオウ Sulfur 0.03%
50
Sustainability of Soil Maintenance and improvement of soil
quality in continuous cropping systems is critical to sustaining agricultural productivity and environmental quality.
Asian Rainforest are old and poor in minerals whereas the soils of the western Amazon (Ecuador and Peru) and volcanic areas of Costa Rica are young and mineral rich.
Change in Rainfall may affect the status of soil, i.e. mineral contents and contents of organic components.
51
土壌は問題か
連作をする場合には確かに問題
地殻の古さによる
降雨の状況が変わると土壌へ影響
Shortage in Food Supply? 1. Insufficient Agriculture Field More than 1-2m of Sea Level Rise
Large Scale of Loss of Agricultural Land in several countries
Resident Area may be lost. -> Environmental Refugees -> Decrease in Food Supply
Draught in Turkey, Spain, USA, Australia Production of Wheat and other crops will
decrease. Local Temperature Change
Change in Suitable Crops -> Decrease in Supply
Fields optimum to certain crop move to colder area. Is it possible for farmers to move?
52
食糧不足は?
生産農地不足
2 mの海面上昇
農地・居住地の喪失
国はどこ
温度変化はどこでも
栽培最適地の北方向への移動
2. Severe safety requirement by citizens/consumers GMO(genetically modified organisms)
Issues for Soy, Corn etc. 遺伝子組換作物 Is it Safe? Yes, safe if eaten. 食べるのは安全 Any environmental adverse side effects? Any abrupt change in productivity of crop?
As Japanese consumers, everybody wants to have “Zero Risk” environment without any Agrichemicals. Yield may be go down.
Even if Agrichemicals are safe for human, but is it safe for insects to help pollination? 53
消費者の要求
環境は?突然変異は?
日本で農薬をゼロにせよ?生産量は下がる
ミツバチのような受粉支援の昆虫は?
Adaptation with Skilled Forecast Average Rain Fall = Slight Increase Temperature will go up to some extent Agricultural Suitability of certain place
will be changed, but the other place will become good land for agriculture.
CO2 concentration increase =Some fertilizing effect
Area of farming land is about half of land suitable for agriculture.
If enough farmers in the new agricultural land, global supply of food will be enough. 54
予測力と適応力
二酸化炭素の施肥効果
使用可能な農地候補の半分を使用中
農民の数!多分大丈夫
It is a good strategy to have long perspectives
of the global changeas possible as we can, if we try to prepare for
unexpected changes of local situation.
55
想定外の変化に対して準備をしておくこと長期的な地球レベルの変化を予測することが重要
Theoretical Goal “To realize Steady State of the Earth
in 2100.” Three Conditions
1:Renewable Resources : Use only the amount naturally renewed.
2:Non Renewable Resources : Use No Energy resources. Recycle all Metals & Minerals perfectly using Renewable Energy.
3:Environmental Pollutant : Release only the amount within the capacity of the Earth. 56
理論上の解決法
定常状態を実現するそのための三条件
再生可能資源:再生の範囲内
地下資源を使うな完全リサイクル
汚染物:地球の処理能力以内
More Detailed Description by Herman Daily in 1971
1. Renewable Resources: Do not use renewable resources at higher speeds than the speed of regeneration.
Good for : Fishery, Forestry, etc.
3. Wastes: Discard wastes Only at a speed less than the speed of reduction by the capacity of the Earth.
Including “Nuclear Spent Fuel” 57
ハーマン・デイリーの原則
再生速度以内で利用
漁業、林業など
地球の処理能力以内で廃棄
使用済み核燃料も
Continued 2. Non-Renewable Resources: Do not
use non-renewable resources at higher velocities than the velocity of conversion of non-renewable resources into renewable resources. = We have to use a part of non-
renewable resources such as oil to construct devices or equipment for renewable energy such as wind and photo voltaic, which can produce more energy than non-renewable energy consumed.
58
枯渇性資源は、再生可能資源に変換せよ
例:石油を使うなら、その一部で自然エネルギー機器を作り石油より多くの再生可能エネルギーを生み出せ
Practical Goal 現実的な分かりやすいゴール
“ Use only the Energy from renewable resources in 2100”
This will be 90% achievement to the theoretical goal.
It means the life of natural resources will be extended about 10 times.
It can be said, “Human Life Reach A New Stage”.
59
再生可能エネルギーだけ! の2100年
これで 90% 目標達成
資源の寿命が10倍伸びる
人類は新しいステージに到達したと言える
Energy Innovation in the PastThe 5th will be the Ultimate One Energy Innovation from the view point
of Human History 1st = Started to Use Fire 500 thousand
Years 2nd = Use Fossil Fuel from
1800 3rd = Use Electricity from
1880 4th = Other than Fossil Fuel
= Nuclear Energy in 1943 = PV cells, Wind full operation not yet
5th = Steady State 2100 or so
60
人類史上のエネルギーのイノベーション 5番目は究極
火
化石燃料
電気
原子力
再生可能エネルギーは未達成
定常状態の達成
Energy Balance of the EarthSolar Energy
xGlobal Energy Consump.
To SpaceReflection
Geothermal
Absorbed
Tidal
Moon
Kinetic EnergyPhotosynthesis
地球上のエネルギー使用量の10000倍が供給されている
100% Renewable Energy Scenario by WWFhttp://www.wwf.or.jp/activities/lib/pdf_climate/green-energy/WWF_EnergyVisionReport_sm.pdf
62
2050 = too early to be realized. Need New Social Systems. No Technologies available so far to utilize unstable electricity.
2050 年は早過ぎる。不安定な電力を使いこなす技術、社会制度が不足
Conclusions No Possibility of Extinction of Homo-sapience
in spite of Limitation of the Earth.
Local Sustainability will be affected by global environmental changes including climate change, limitation of some resources and loss of biological diversities.
Crisis can be averted by prediction and management of environmental risks.
Possible solutions for global environmental issues must be discussed and proposed. 何が起きるか不確実! 63
地球の限界のために人類が絶滅することは無さそう
地域の持続可能性はグローバルな持続可能性の影響を受ける。気候変動、資源の有限性、そして、生物多様性の喪失など
適切な予測と環境リスクの管理で危機は回避できる
グローバルな環境問題の解決法を提案することが必須
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