golar flng presentation
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Growth by transformational change
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Forward Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) which reflects managements current expectations, estimates and projections about its operations. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, that address activities and events that will, should, could or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Words such as may, could, should, would, expect, plan, anticipate, intend, forecast, believe, estimate, predict, propose, potential, continue, or the negative of these terms and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Unless legally required, Golar LNG undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are: changes in liquefied natural gas ( LNG) floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) and floating liquefaction natural gas vessel (FLNGV) market trends, including charter rates, ship values and technological advancements; changes in our ability to retrofit vessels as FSRUs and FLNGVs, our ability to obtain financing for such conversions on acceptable terms or at all, and the timing of the delivery and acceptance of such converted vessels; changes in the supply of or demand for LNG or LNG carried by sea; a material decline or prolonged weakness in rates for LNG carriers or FSRUs; changes in trading patterns that affect the opportunities for the profitable operation of LNG carriers, FSRUs or FLNGVs; changes in the supply of or demand for natural gas generally or in particular regions; changes in our relationships with major chartering parties; changes in the availability of vessels to purchase, the time it takes to construct new vessels, or vessels useful lives; failure of shipyards to comply with delivery schedules on a timely basis or at all; our ability to integrate and realize the benefits of acquisitions; changes in our ability to sell vessels to Golar LNG Partners LP, or Golar Partners; changes in our relationship with Golar Partners; changes to rules and regulations applicable to LNG carriers, FSRUs or FLNGVs; actions taken by regulatory authorities that may prohibit the access of LNG carriers, FSRUs or FLNGVs to various ports; our inability to achieve successful utilization of our expanded fleet and inability to expand beyond the carriage of LNG; increases in costs including among other things crew wages, insurance, provisions, repairs and maintenance; changes in general domestic and international political conditions, particularly where we operate; changes in our ability to obtain additional financing on acceptable terms or at all; and other factors listed from time to time in reports or other materials that we have filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our most recent annual report on Form 20-F. Unpredictable or unknown factors also could have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements.
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Our strategy and investment proposition
Transitioning to integrated LNG mid-stream player
Golars strategic intent: integrated LNG mid-stream services provider: - floating liquefaction, LNG shipping and FSRU services. Intent emanates from success in shipping & regas Golar owns one of largest & most modern fleets c.50% market share of FSRU mkt Ambition: LNG liquefaction game changer
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Developed GoFLNG floating liquefaction concept GoFLNG:
- substantially lower unit cost liquefaction - shorter lead-times - significantly lower execution risk profile
Advantages most pronounced in remote locations & developing economies having stranded gas reserves
Overview of the LNG Value Chain
Exploration & Drilling
Production & Liquefaction Shipping Regasification Power generation
FLNG LNG Carriers FSRU
LNG Midstream
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Golars Assets
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Old steamers Modern steamers
Tri-fuel vessels
FSRUs
FLNG
2 units at 125,000cbm 1 unit at 145,000cbm 10 units at 160,000cbm 1 newbuild (5bcmpa)
2 units (prospective capacity of 5mtpa)
4 units between 137-145,000cbm
6 units (2-5bcmpa)
The current revenue backlog for the Golar Group is $2.7 billion
Golar LNG Limited Golar LNG Partners LP
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LNG shipping suffering from project delays
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2002
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2010
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2020
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West Africa
South America
South & East Africa
North America
North Africa
Middle East
Europe
Asia Pacific
Source: Wood Mackenzie.
Spike in spot rates in 2011/12 corresponds to delivery of big Qatari projects. Rate drop from Mid-2012: termination of Egyptian export, multiple force majeures
(Nigeria & Yemen), Angola delays & commissioning of newbuilds end 2013.
Little additional liquefaction since 2011 but next wave just around the corner
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Shipping Market Set to Improve
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FSRU Growth Story Continues
FSRUs substantially cheaper than land based terminals Gas demand growing in riskier countries: floating, low capex unit even more
attractive.
Since 2007, around 75-80% of new markets for LNG opened by an FSRU.
Floating infrastructure has and will fundamentally alter LNG market dynamics
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Strong growth in FSRU demand
FSRUs account for much of this
2000 2013: +190%
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Our observations and our mission in FLNG
Globalisation of Gas and Demand for Power
Energy demand will grow Gas abundant, cost effective, environment friendly Gas will grow as proportion of overall energy mix LNG market will grow & globalize Stranded & associated gas needs low cost FLNG
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Power demand in developing countries is growing fast Location mismatch: gas reserves vs power demand GoFLNG offer bridge: low cost gas to power GoFLNG to monetize stranded & associated gas Golar solutions to small and large resource owners
Overview of the LNG Value Chain
Exploration & Drilling
Production & Liquefaction Shipping Regasification Power generation
FLNG LNG Carriers FSRU
LNG Midstream
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GoFLNG
GoFLNG Mk I
existing LNG vessel - 125,000 m3 LNG storage - 2.5 to 2.8 mtpa liquefaction capacity.
First GoFLNg (Hilli) under construction, delivery Feb 2017, earmarked for Cameroon.
Second GoFLNG (Gimi) delivery Q1 2018
Gimi is sister ship to Hilli
GoFLNG based on proven B&V technology
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33% finished delivered by Q1 2017
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GoFLNG Model
GoFLNG value proposition:
Low unit cost of production. Short lead time. Reduced execution risk. Underpinned by a growing demand globally for LNG.
GoFLNG business model is based on targeting:
Relatively dry and clean gas. Associated gas that currently has no opportunity cost is a focus area. Located offshore in benign to moderate met-ocean conditions. With a reserve base above 500 Bcf.
GoFLNG commercial model:
Vessel employed on tolling basis. Primary exposure to commodity price sits with the resource holder. Golar mindful of security of project cash flow, project timing & risk
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The Floating Cost Advantage
The FSRUs substantially cheaper than land based terminals
Floating infrastructure has and will continue fundamentally to alter LNG market paradigm
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GoFLNG unit capex USD400-500/Mtpa Onshore liquefaction USD1000-2000/Mtpa
(greenfield)
An FSRU is Substantially cheaper than a Land-Based Alternative FLNG Costs are less than half recent greenfield onshore terminals (Source: Arctic sec)
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
mU
SD/M
TPA
FSRU substantially cheaper than land based
Land based
FSRU
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
mU
SD/M
TPA
FLNG costs superior in recent time
Onshore
FLNG
Source: Arctic Securities, Company
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FLNG Comparison Economics
Global liquefaction costs (15% pre-tax IRR, 20 years) range from $2.88 to c.$7.0 (includes OPEX). Golars model can deliver superior returns at the lower end of this cost range with added benefits of: Scalability: maintains cost advantage even on smaller projects (1.0-2.5 MMTPA). Reliability: simple proven technology to mitigate unplanned outages and start-up delays. Predictability: controlled environment of shipyard gives confidence on schedule and cost (relatively
inflation proof compared with in-situ LNG construction projects). Financeability: Golar plan to execute projects without cumbersome pre-FID project finance overlay. Speed of execution: permitting and construction timeline dramatically improved with floating asset.
Notes: Dotted lines represent capital cost range; assumes LNG delivery to Tokyo Bay Harbour (FOB Destination, seller pays for LNG transport); 25 year project life; Western Australia liquids yield of 15 bbl/mmcf and price realization of $102bbl. Source: Company Reports, IHS CERA, RBC Capital Markets
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Golar is The Low Cost Producer
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Why Africa?
West Africa offers significant high quality clean gas requiring little pre-processing
Associated gas is also plentiful Nigeria is flaring 428bcf p.a. (~9mtpa LNG)
Domestic prices significantly below international prices FLNG can add value
Incumbent majors are not pursuing fast track low cost solutions
Land based terminals in Africa require very high returns given execution, political, inflation and currency risks. FLNG can mitigate some of these risks.
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Dry Natural Gas Production in Sub-Saharan Africa: 2010 - 2040
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All-in Breakeven Costs
In power short countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa) power prices tend to be above USD150/MWh - gas can clearly offer superior economics.
..and before accounting for pollution benefit of gas over coal or oil fired plants.
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Supply Chain Cost Breakdown
Associated gas (USD/Mmbtu) 1.50 Tolling fee (USD/Mmbtu) 2.00 Shipping (USD/Mmbtu) 1.30 Regasification cost (USD/Mmbtu) 0.45 All in cost (USD/Mmbtu) 5.25 Energy equivalent oil price (USD/Boe) 31.5 Implied USD/MWh (USD/MWh) 35.0 Power plant cost (USD/MWh) 18.0 Total USD/MWh (USD/MWh) 53.0
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Crude oil substitution potential is vast
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Power generation from crude is equal to the current total LNG market
Source: Pira Energy
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NAV support strong liquidity position
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Equity of Golar ~USD26/share, does not take account of the General Partner interest
Dividend of USD1.8/share represents a 5.5% dividend yield
Golar strengthened balance sheet to weather the challenging shipping market.
Golar can fully fund the newbuilding program & conversion of GoFLNG Hilli
US$ millions Balance sheet cash position as at 4Q14 192
GMLP units secondary offering proceeds 207 GMLP revolver 20 Newbuild equity release 180 Cash released from restricted balance since 4Q14 25 Cash available now and within the next three months 624
Eskimo sale proceeds 227 Pro-forma cash position after all amounts due are received 851
Cash position strengthened in recent months NAV support today of USD26/share (Arctic Securities)
US$ millions
Fleet value (analyst estimates) 4,156
GMLP M-t-M 479
Adjusted cash 851
Interest bearing debt (analyst est) 1,860
Remaining capex (analyst estimates) 1,161
NAV 2,465
NAVps 26.5
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Capex vs. EBITDA
$900
$300
$1.200
$250 $450
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1.000
$1.200
$1.400
Conversion Jetty etc. All-capex EBITDA Low EBITDA High
Using U.S. Gulf transactions as a reference point, annual EBITDA can be expected to be in the $250mm - $450mm range.
This compares with all-in estimated conversion cost of $1.2bn.
Equals an EBITDA-payback of 3 - 5 years based on 4 trains.
~3x5x
$mm
Average FLNG project longevity is expected to be between 5 - 20 years, an ideal asset for MLP dropdown
Each project is expected to require between 2 - 5 ships to transport LNG.
Potential dropdown valuation (based on past dropdown EBITDA multiples):
FLNG $3,000-$4,000mm.
Ships $750mm.
Potential dropdown value per project $3,750-$4,750mm.
Note: U.S. Dollars in millions.
GoFLNG The Potential Economics for Golar
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FLNG project pipeline growing
Growing Portfolio of Projects fast & cheap are their competitive advantages
Simplified Illustration of the Economics of an FLNG Unit
Tariff: USD4/Mmbtu.
Capacity: up to 2.8mtpa.
EBITDA: up to 450mn.
MLP drop-down: 8-10x EBITDA.
Value of ~USD4bn capex of USD1.2bn = USD2.8bn.
Current market cap is USD3.2bn.
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FLNG # Operator Capacity (Mtpa) Duration Potential start-up 1 Perenco Up to 2.5 8 years 2017 2 West Africa 2.5 Life of field 2018 3 Rosneft 2.5 Life of field 2018 4 Rosneft 2.5 Life of field 2019 5 Cedar LNG 2.8 Life of field 2020 6 Cedar LNG 2.8 Life of field 2020 7 Cedar LNG 2.8 Life of field 2021
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