grant ian thrall, ph.d. - icsc

10/11/2013 2 Grant@Thrall.us

www.BusinessGeography.com

Grant Ian Thrall, Ph.D. Immediate Past President, American Real Estate Society

& Business Geography Advisors

Gainesville FL

• GeoSpatial For Location Intelligence And Real Estate Valuation

– The Data

– The Concepts

• Procedures Within The US

• Applications Of Procedures To China

The Take Away From This Presentation Is

Stages Of Stages Of Geospatial Reasoning

• 1997 - "Real Estate Problem Solving and Geographic Information Systems: A Stage Model of Reasoning." Journal of Real Estate Literature, vol. 5, number 2, July, 177-201. (Grant Thrall and Larry Wofford)

• Download at http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/class/g3602/wofford-thrall-jrel1997.pdf

Grant@Thrall.us

Manage

Implementation

Judgment

Prediction

Explanation

Description Large Scale

Small Scale

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Location Intelligence, Business Geography, Real Estate Market Analysis

Site & Situation Valuation

– Four steps in site selection - calculate 1. Trade Area 2. Competitive Supply 3. Demand 4. Absorption Analysis

Grant@Thrall.us www.BusinessGeography.com

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Gap & Leakage

• “Gap” is the difference between demand and supply by industry category (NAICS).

• “Leakage" is when the local demand exceeds local supply

• Leakage - prospective consumers travel to locations elsewhere to satisfy their demands

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Location Specific Investment Decisions

Gap & Leakage

Overlooked

Current Opportunity

Population Increase

Future Opportunity

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Gap & Leakage Analysis

From http://www.STDB.com

Example Of A Place And Its Trade Area Somewhere USA.

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From The Geographic Access To Higher Education Report, Florida Board Of Governors, By Grant Ian Thrall

Full report at http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/fbog/index.htm

10/11/2013 9

Florida’s Population Change 2005-2010

Population change is never uniformly distributed across a nation, state, city,

Population Change 2005-2010

Florida’s total population was increasing at a rate of over 550 persons net per day.

Gainesville

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Market Segmentation By Psychographic

ESRI LifeMode Tapestry

http://www.esri.com/library/brochures/pdfs/tapestry-segmentation.pdf

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High Society ESRI LifeMode

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High Hopes ESRI LifeMode

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Customer Location, Point Map

Grant Thrall and Noelle Mecoli, 2003, Spatial Analysis, Political Support, and Higher Education Funding, GeoSpatial Solutions 13(7): 44-47. http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/research/uf/thrall-mecoli.pdf

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Percent Of 2003 First-Time Freshmen In Each LifeMode By University

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Segmenting education for successful value platforms www.dteia.com

Point Map Of L1 LSP Students’ Resident Locations While Attending University of Florida

Distribution Of UF Student Increase By Psychographic Segment

Students of an LSP segment cluster by neighborhood

50% of UF students are L1 and L2 based upon permanent address

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Judgment

10/11/2013 Grant@Thrall.us

www.BusinessGeography.com 17

From Grant Thrall, 2005, Summary Report To The Florida Board Of Governors, Geographic Access To Higher Education In Florida http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/fbog/thrall-fbog-overview.pdf

LSP / Psychographics Example Tapestry households =

1,2,3,5,7,9,15

LSP / Psychographics Example Tapestry households =

1,2,3,5,7,9,15

Trade Areas

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Trade Areas

How to Calculate Trade Areas

Ring Study

ZIP Code, block groups and other common polygons

Drive Time

Amoeba - Wedge

Wedge Casting – Patel, Fik, Thrall

Location Of Comparables For An Appraisal

Comparables are not in primary trade area for Subject Property, and not in same geographic context as Subject Property

Subject property whose valuation was contested

Trade area calculation using Ashish Patel, Tim Fik, Grant Thrall, 2008, Direction Sensitive Wedge-Casting For Trade Area Delineation, Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 14(2): 125-140. http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/thrall/class/g4620/tradearea.pdf

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Smith Travel Research, Inc. Marquee Hotels Globally Including Peoples’ Republic Of China

www.STR.com 10/11/2013 24

OpenStreetMap For China Governmental Boundaries, Points Of Interest, Roads, Water, Shoreline, …

10/11/2013 25

• OpenStreetMap has roads, water, points of interest. Among the POI are McDonald’s, Starbucks, Hotels

OpenStreetMap For Beijing Governmental Boundaries, Points Of Interest, Roads, Water, Shoreline, …

Comparison In Nighttime Light Intensity China 2000 to 2010

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From: China Business Handbook 2013.

http://export.gov/china/build/groups/public/@eg_cn/documents/webcontent/eg_cn_055956.pdf

China Data In The US

China 2000 to 2010

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http://www.ChinaDataCenter.com http://www.GeoDemo.com

Demographic Consulting Inc. Data - People’s Republic of China

10/11/2013 29 http://www.GeoDemo.com http://www.ChinaDataCenter.org

Total Population Beijing Area 2012 100 Square Kilometer Grid

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Population Growth Rate Beijing Area 2000-2012 10 Square Kilometer Grid

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Median Price To Purchase A Home Beijing Area 2000 10 Square Kilometer Grid

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Housing Prices By Small Area Increase As A Logistic “S” Curve As Population Within The Small Area Increases

http://youtu.be/dgPYYAOGkuM

Median Price To Purchase A Home Beijing Area 20000, 10 Sq KM Grid – With Hotels & McDonalds

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Median Price To Rent A Home Beijing Area 20000, 10 Sq KM Grid – With Hotels & McDonalds -

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Total Population Age 5 To 35 Cohort Groups Beijing, 2 Sq KM Grid, 2000

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% Population 5 To 35 Years Of Age Beijing, 2 Sq KM Grid, 2000

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% Population 5 To 35 Years Of Age Beijing Urban Core, 2 Sq KM Grid, 2000

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% Population 5 To 35 Years Of Age Beijing, 2 Sq KM Grid, 2000

10/11/2013 42

John Wu

Tongyan Investment & Development Co.,Ltd

john_wubj@hotmail.com

John Wu writes to Grant Thrall: our project is a 1 KM long commercial street of European architectural style, consisting of two major sections:

•an imported food/wine/seafood trading center; and •a fashion shopping complex.

We are doing the functional zoning and planning of retail establishments. The project will be completed in 2014. Now we have shop sales and leasing center.

China’s Commercial Real Estate Markets

used with permission

Existing Scale of Retail In China

John Wu

Tongyan Investment & Development Co.,Ltd john_wubj@hotmail.com

Key Triggers For Change In China Retail

John Wu

Urbanization In China Compared To Rest Of World

John Wu

Top 50 Chinese Boom Cities

John Wu

By 2020, The Top 50 Chinese Boom Cities Collectively Will Exceed The EU In

Retail Sales, Retail Square Footage, Office Space

John Wu

2020 Gap In The Top 50 Chinese Boom Cities

John Wu

2020 Gap In The Top 50 Chinese Boom Cities

John Wu

Booming Cities In China By Hierarchy Tier

John Wu

Population Hierarchy Of China

John Wu

Tier 1 Chinese Boom Cities

John Wu

Tier 1.5 And 2 Chinese Boom Cities

John Wu

Two Categories Of Tier 3 Chinese Boom Cities

John Wu

RESOURCES

10/11/2013 56

OpenStreetMap

• http://downloads.cloudmade.com/asia/eastern_asia/china#downloads_breadcrumbs

China Coverage On OpenStreetMap

OpenStreetMap

• http://downloads.cloudmade.com/asia/eastern_asia/china#downloads_breadcrumbs

10/11/2013 59

China Coverage On OpenStreetMap

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Shanghai POI Starbucks

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Shanghai Starbucks

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Western Restaurants In China

• http://www.travelchinaguide.com/cityguides/beijing/dinning/american.htm

http://www.nytimes.com/books/first/w/watson-arches.html

McDonalds‘ In China NY Times article

10/11/2013 63

Hotels In China http://www.chinatraveldepot.com/City-Hotel-List

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Find Latitude Longitude http://www.distancesfrom.com/Latitude-Longitude.aspx

10/11/2013 65

Notes From Interview With Lex Berman Of Harvard On China Data

• Lex Berman Center for Geographic Analysis Harvard University (617) 496-9439 http://www.iq.harvard.edu/people/lex-berman

• Available - 1990 Census by county • Fairly extensive and clean 1990 variables in the China A data, look for China-A under China menu:

http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/hrs

• Available – 2000 Census, Harvard licensed for internal use by its researchers. See Michigan Data Center and Demographic Consulting Inc.

• Available - The 2010 is out in China. See Michigan Data Center and Demographic Consulting Inc. •

Large scale data is in production. Be on the lookout for China Research Data Center at Peking University, directed by Gu Jiafeng.

• see for example http://www.isss.edu.cn/index.php?catid=41&action=index • Historical data (mostly pre-1911):

http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~chgis/data/chgis/downloads/v4 http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~chgis/data/chgis/downloads/v5 http://skinner.hmdc.harvard.edu/ Modern data: http://worldmap.harvard.edu/maps/chinamap OpenStreetMap. http://downloads.cloudmade.com/asia/eastern_asia/china#downloads_breadcrumbs

10/11/2013 66

STR Hotel Data

Steve Hood Senior Vice President of Research, STR (Smith Travel Research)

Founding Director, SHARE Center ("Supporting Hotel-related Academic Research and Education") 735 East Main Street Hendersonville, TN 37075, USA Tel: +1 (615) 824 8664 x3315 Fax: +1 (615) 824 3848 Email: steve@str.com

Twitter: @STR_Inc

www.str.com

Grant@Thrall.us

www.BusinessGeography.com 10/11/2013 67

http://chinadatacenter.org/People/PeopleContent.aspx?id=2

http://chinadatacenter.org/

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RESOURCES CITED

10/11/2013 74

John Wu

Tongyan Investment & Development Co.,Ltd

john_wubj@hotmail.com

Miller Center For Retail Research And

Education, University of Florida

Dr. Hyunjoo Oh hyunjoo.oh@warrington.ufl.edu http://warrington.ufl.edu/centers/retailcenter/executive/specialized.asp

http://www.ESRI.com

Caliper

http://www.Caliper.com

Demographic Consulting {Chinese Data)

http://www.GeoDemo.com

China Data Center, University of Michigan

http://www.ChinaDataCenter.com

OpenStreetMap http://downloads.cloudmade.com/asia/eastern_asia/china#downloads_breadcrumbs

Harvard University, China Data Map http://worldmap.harvard.edu/maps/chinamap

International Council of Shopping Centers

http://www.icsc.org/

The Information Advisor

Vol. 25, No. 5, 2013 – China Data

http://www.informationadvisor.com/

China Business Handbook

http://export.gov/china/build/groups/public/@eg_cn/

documents/webcontent/eg_cn_055956.pdf

Business Geography Advisors

http://www.BusinessGeography.com

grant@thrall.us

Smith Travel Research (Hotel Data)

www.str.com

Thank You

grant ian thrall, ph.d. - icsc

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