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Growth and Trend Position of
Sugar Industry
73
CHAPTER IV
GROWTH AND TREND POSITION OF SUGAR INDUSTRY
4.1. SUGAR INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
4.1.1. HISTORY OF SUGARCANE
Sugarcane is a renewable, natural agricultural resource because it provides
sugar, besides biofuel, fibre, fertilizer and myriad of by products/co-products with
ecological sustainability1. The world demand for sugar is primarily derived from
sugar cane. Sugar cane accounts for eighty per cent of sugar produced and the rest
is made from sugar beets. Sugarcane predominantly grows in the tropical and
subtropical regions, and sugar beet predominantly grows in colder temperate
regions of the world. A few merchants began to trade in sugar - a luxury and an
expensive spice until the 18th
century. Before the 18th
century, cultivation of
sugarcane was largely confined to India. Sugarcane plantations, like cotton farms,
were a major driver of large human migrations in the 19th
and early 20th
century2.
4.1.2. SUGARCANE IN INDIA
Sugarcane is one of the significant cash crops. The production has grown
dramatically over past several years. Sugarcane growing area in India may be
broadly classified into two agro-climate regions:
Region
States
Sub - Tropical
Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana
Tropical
Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka
Sugarcane industry was initially set up in the sub-tropical region. Till 1950s,
ninety per cent of area under sugarcane was in this region. With commencement of
75
planning process, sugarcane found its route in tropical area. Sugarcane being a
tropical crop finds favourable agro climatic conditions for its growth in this region
- i.e., higher yields. Now the tropical region is already developed and reached near
saturation level. The biggest state in this region, Maharashtra faces acute problem
of lack of water which effects cultivation of sugarcane. The sub-tropical belt, with
fertile land, high water table and irrigation, appears to be the area for future
growth3.
4.1.3. INDIAN SUGAR INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
The Indian sugar industry is a key to the rural development, supporting
India's economic growth. The industry is inherently inclusive supporting over fifty
million farmers and their families, in an era where there is a need for inclusive
growth; the sugar industry is amongst the few industries that have successfully
contributed to the rural economy. It has done so by commercially utilising the
rural resources to meet the large domestic demand for sugar and by generating
surplus energy to meet the increasing energy needs of India. In addition to this, the
industry has become the mainstay of the alcohol industry4, and delivers value
addition at the farm side. In general, sugarcane price accounts for approximately
seventy percent of the ex-mill sugar price5.
The Indian sugar industry is characterised by the coexistence of private, co-
operative and public sector. It is rural centric and hence a key driver of village
level wealth creation. It has tremendous transformational opportunities to meet
food, fuel and power needs and earn carbon credit.
Sugarcane and sugar production are seasonal with more than ninety per cent
happening in the winter months of November to March. Crushing season lasts an
average for 100-150 days in a year depending on the region, weather, irrigation,
75
cultivation practices as well as sugar cane availability. The cyclicality of Indian
sugar is less driven by nature and more accentuated by radical change in
Government policies6. The sugar industry caters to an estimated twelve per cent of
rural population in these nine states through direct and indirect employment.
Effectively, each farmer7contributes to the production of 2.9 MT. of sugar every
year.
The traditional sweeteners of India like Gur and Khandsari are consumed
mostly by the rural population in the country. In the early 1930s nearly two third
of sugarcane production was used for the production of alternate sweeteners like
Gur and Khandsari. As accordingly because of the better standard of living and
higher incomes, the sweetener demand has shifted to white sugar. Currently one
third of sugarcane production is used by the Gur and Khandsari sectors8.
India has, in recent years emerged as the largest sugarcane and sugar
producing country in the world, The cane sugar industry of India spread over vast
regions of the country occupies an important place in the economic and social life
of the country in view of the wealth generated as well as the employment provided
to lakhs of people in rural areas of the country. The industry has the potential to
produce a number of essential chemicals from it‟s by products and generate extra
power for supply to other industries or to state grids.
The modern sugar industry of India since it was established in the early
thirties has witnessed vast technological changes over the past six decades, thanks
to the research and development work carried out in the field of sugar cane
manufacture in the country and also in the world sugar industry. Subsequent
growth of the industry has been accompanied by the technological advance in the
production of raw material as well as the manufacture of sugar and the country is
76
now in a position to export both raw and white sugar after meeting the internal
demand of this sweetening agent. However, technological progress is key to any
further growth in the manufacturing sector and it is essential for the technologists
engaged in the sugar cane manufacture to keep abreast of the developments taking
place in different parts of the world in the field of technology of sugar production9.
In the year 1930 there was an advent of modern sugar processing industry
in India which was started with grant of tariff protection to the sugar industry.
In the year 1930-31 the number of sugar mills increased from thirty to one
hundred and thirty five. In the year 1935-36 production was increased from
1.20 lakh tonnes to 9.34 lakh tonnes under the dynamic leadership of the private
sector. In the year 1950-51 the era of planning for industrial development began
and Government laid down targets of sugar production and consumption, licensed
and installed capacity, sugarcane production during each of the sugar companies
have been established in large sugarcane growing states like Uttar Pradesh,
Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh and are the six
states contributing more than eighty five per cent of total sugar production in
India. Fifty seven per cent of total production is together contributed by Uttar
Pradesh and Maharashtra. Indian sugar industry has been growing horizontally
with large number of small sized sugar plants set up throughout India as opposed
to the consolidation of capacity in the rest of the important sugar producing
countries and sellers of sugar, where there is greater concentration on larger
capacity of sugar plants.
77
Figure 4.1
Production of Sugarcane in Major States of India
Source:http://www.sugarcane.res.in/index.php/mis/sugarcane-statistics/281
Both sugar and sugarcane are treated as „essential commodity‟. The
Government‟s focus to give high sugar cane price to farmer and concomitantly
maintain low sugar price for the consumer is socially unexceptionable but
economically unsustainable. Low sugar price leads to unremunerative sugar cane
price and its delayed payment forcing the cultivator to switch over to other crops.
This kick-starts sugar shortage and high sugar price, in turn prompting higher
sugar cane price to lure the farmer back to sugar cane. This cycle gets repeated
endlessly with resultant spike in sugar production causing demand-supply
disequilibrium and driving sugar prices on a roller-coaster ride.
The Indian sugar factories are located largely in rural areas and directly
contributing to rural economic development and employment. Industrial user‟s viz.,
beverage, biscuit, confectionary manufacturers are the largest consumers of Indian
sugar accounting to sixty five per cent of the Indian sugar production. The comparative
sugar productions in the last two sugar seasons (Oct - Sep) are given below:
78
Particulars
2010-11
(in lakh tonnes)
2011-12 (Estd.)
(in lakh tonnes)
Opening stock as on 1st Oct
49.80
68.00*
Production
243.94
260.00
Total availability
293.74
328.00
Demand
- Internal consumption
- Exports
207.69
26.00
215.00
35.95
Closing stock
60.05
77.05
Source: ISMA Journal May, 2012,* as posted in the website of Dept. of Food & Public Distribution
Government has been encouraging setting up of new sugar mills as well as
expansions upto 5000 TCD allowing upto one hundred per cent of sugar for new
mills and eighty per cent for expanded units, to be marketed in free market for
certain number of years. Thus the growth has been lateral. Today there are four
hundred and forty eight mills with installed capacity of 12.5 MT with average size
of 2150 TPD with some units of 10000 TCD and few of 5000 TCD.
Indian sugar production has crossed twenty six million tonnes in sugar
season 2011-12. However, production estimate for 2012-13 has been lowered by
Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) to twenty four million tonnes due to poor
monsoon. ISMA has repeatedly stressed the Government that there is enough
stock to meet the domestic needs besides a marginal surplus available for exports,
despite a fall in output estimate10
.
79
4.1.4. MAJOR LEGISLATIONS
The major legislation and policies concerning the sugar industry in India
are as follows:
(i) The Essential Commodities Act, 1955
(ii) Sugar Control Order, 1966
(iii) Sugarcane Control Act, 1966
(iv) Levy Sugar Supply (Control) Order, 1979
(v) Sugar (Packing and Marking) Order, 1970
(vi) Sugar Export Promotion Act, 1958
(vii) Sugar Cess Act, 1982
(viii) Sugar Development Fund Act, 1982 and 2002
(ix) Levy Sugar Price Equalization Fund Act, 1976
(x) Molasses Control Order, 1961 and Decontrol, 1993
(xi) Excise and Custom Rules
(xii) State Sugar Policies
(xiii) Power Purchase Agreements
(xiv) Environment Norms by State Pollution Control Boards.
4.1.5. ABOUT TAMIL NADU SUGAR INDUSTRY
The agro based sugar mills play an important role in the economic growth
of rural areas with the sole aim to generate large scale direct employment.
Tamil Nadu sugar industry is responsible for about ten per cent of the total sugar
production in India. Majority of sugar units in Tamil Nadu lies with the co-operative
80
sector, with some private player‟s also gathering momentum11
. The sugar industry
generates large-scale direct employment, apart from providing indirect
employment to thousands of persons in rural areas who are involved in cultivation,
harvesting, transport of cane and other services12
.
Sugarcane is one of the most important industrial crops in our state and
also emerging as a multi product crop contributing to the production of sugar,
jaggery, alcohol, electricity, paper and other allied products. The sustenance of
the sugar mills and well being of the sugarcane growers are mutually interlinked.
Hence the major focus is towards enhancing sugarcane productivity and
production thereby improving the living standard of the sugarcane growers.
South India, Tamil Nadu in particular, has many advantages for sugar
productions are as follows:
Cane productivity and sugar recovery per unit area is highest. The average
farm size is less than a hectare and is owned by farmers. Geographically,
Tamil Nadu has the advantage of good soil and abundant water and yield is
highest among the various states in India. Farmers are willing to adopt new
farming practices and cultivation methodologies, including mechanisation, to
improve yield, access to ports to reach export market, improved development of
infrastructure facilities, to ensure adequate sugar cane availability and supply, to
ensure timely availability of newer varieties of sugar cane13
.
Around 3.50 Lakh farmers are cultivating sugarcane in Tamil Nadu which
is five per cent of the total cultivable area. During 2011-12 sugar seasons, the
sugarcane crop was cultivated in 3.16 lakh hectares in the state and the total estimated
sugarcane production was 342.52 L.Mt. During 2012-13, it is programmed to
cultivate Sugarcane in 3.60 L.Ha. with a production target of 493.50 L.Mt.
81
Out of the total sugarcane production, sixty to seventy per cent of the cane was
drawn and crushed by the sugar mills of Tamil Nadu during 2011-12 and this
crushing rate is expected to be increased during 2012-13 sugar season.
4.2. ANALYSIS OF SELECTED VARIABLES OF SUGAR INDUSTRY
The analysis of financial performance can also significantly prove through
the selected variables of a company or of the industries as a whole. All techniques
have been adopted to appraise the financial performance of the sugar industries in
this chapter. An attempt has also been made to estimate trend co-efficients for
selected variables of selected sugar industries in Tamil Nadu during the study
period by fitting a linear regression model. The liner model fitted is as follows.
P = α + βt + e
Where P is rate of selected variables, t is the time and α and βt are the parameters
[intercept and co-efficients respectively] and e is the error term. To test whether the
difference between actual selected variables and estimated selected variables was
significant or not, the following hypothesis is framed and tested. “There is no
significant difference between actual values and the trend values of selected variables
among different years”. The annual production and consumption of world sugar
industry, area, yield, production of sugarcane and sugar, consumption of sugar and
sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry, annual production, sales, crushing of sugar
canes in selected sugar companies in Tamil Nadu were analysed from the year 2002- 03
to 2011-12. Further, the annual production and consumption of world sugar industry,
area, yield, production of sugarcane and sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar
recovery of Indian sugar industry, annual production, sales, crushing of sugar canes in
selected sugar companies in Tamil Nadu over the study period are achieved through
estimation of mean, co-efficient of variation and compound annual growth rate.
82
Table 4.1
Annual Production and Consumption of World Sugar Industry
(2001-2002 to 2011-2012)
(in MT)
Year Production Consumption
Actual Growth Actual Growth
2002 - 03 137.45 100 134.67 100
2003 - 04 141.75 103.13 137.39 102.02
2004 - 05 141.1 102.66 143.1 106.26
2005 - 06 144.26 104.95 147.99 109.89
2006 - 07 148.97 108.38 151.19 112.27
2007 - 08 167.2 121.64 156.44 116.17
2008 - 09 167.1 121.57 160.69 119.32
2009 - 10 152.98 111.30 164.32 122.02
2010 - 11 159.89 116.33 167.13 124.10
2011 - 12 165.6 120.48 168.3 124.97
Mean 154.48 154.46
S.D 12.59 12.39
CV 8.15 8.02
CAGR 0.023 0.022
Source: Secondary Data
The production and consumption of world sugar industry have been shown
in Table 4.1. The highest growth of production in the year 2007-08 is 121.64 and
consumption in the year 2011-12 is 124.97. The mean values of production and
consumption of world sugar industry are 154.48 and 154.46 respectively.
83
The compound annual growth rate of world sugar production which worked out as
0.023 and in world sugar consumption is 0.022. The coefficient of variation
indicates that the annual production and consumption of world sugar industry are
moderately fluctuated during the study period.
Table 4.2
Estimates of trend co-efficients for World sugar industry (2002-03 to 2011-12)
S. No.
Particulars
P = α + βt + e
p-value
S/NS
α
βt R2
F-value
1
Production
134.57
3.32
76.4%
29.21
0.000**
S
2
Consumption
132.44
3.67
96.5%
247.15
0.000**
S
** P<0.01 S - Significant
Hypothesis: “There is no significant difference between actual value and the trend
value of production and consumption of world sugar industry among different
years”.
The results estimate of trend co-efficient for world sugar industry presented
in Table 4.2. It is clear that, the p-value is less than 0.01 per cent, the null
hypothesis is rejected at one per cent level of significance. Hence, there is
significant difference between actual value and the trend value of production and
consumption of world sugar industry among different years.
84
MA PE 1.16013
MA D 1.81778
MSD 4.90372
con
su
mp
tio
n
Pro
du
ctio
n
Figure 4.2
Trend Analysis for Production of World Sugar Industry
190
180
170
160
150
140
Trend Analysis Plot for Production Linear Trend Model
Yt = 134.568 + 3.31905* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 2.8034
MA D 4.4519
MSD 33.9457
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Index
2012 2014 2016
Figure 4.3
Trend Analysis for Consumption of World Sugar Industry
Trend Analysis Plot for consumption Linear Trend Model
Yt = 132.440 + 3.66977*t
190
180
170
160
150
140
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts A ccuracy Measures
130
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Index
2012
2014
2016
85
Table 4.3
Projections for Annual Production and Consumption of World Sugar
Industry (2012-13 to 2016-17)
(in MT)
Year
Production
Consumption
2012-13
174.40
176.48
2013-14
177.72
180.15
2014-15
181.03
183.82
2015-16
184.35
187.49
2016-17
187.67
191.16
Source: Computed
The projections obtained for world sugar industry by linear growth models
listed in Table 4.3. It shows production and consumption have been growing
marginally. The trend movement of the production units is 187.67 Mt. that will be
the highest in the year 2016-17 and the production units will be the lowest
(174.40 Mt.) in the year is 2012-13. In other hand the trend movement of
consumption the highest in the year 2016-17 that is 191.16 Mt., will be the lowest
that is 176.48 Mt. in the year 2012-13.
Table 4.4
Area, Yield, Production of Sugarcane, Production of Sugar, Consumption of Sugar and Sugar Recovery of
Indian Sugar Industry (2002-2003 to 2011-2012)
Year
Area
(ha)
Yield
(t/ha)
Sugarcane
Production
(MT)
Production of
Sugar (MT)
Consumption of
Sugar (LT)
Sugar Recovery
(per cent)
Actual Growth Actual Growth Actual Growth Actual Growth Actual Growth Actual Growth
2002-03 4361 100 64.6 100 281.575 100 20.145 100 183.84 100 10.36 100
2003-04 3938 90.30 59.4 91.95 233.862 83.05 13.546 67.24 172.85 94.02 10.22 98.65
2004-05 3662 83.97 64.8 100.31 237.088 84.20 12.69 62.99 185 100.63 10.17 98.17
2005-06 4201 96.33 66.9 103.56 281.172 99.86 19.267 95.64 189.45 103.05 10.21 98.55
2006-07 5151 118.12 69 106.81 355.52 126.26 28.328 140.62 201.6 109.66 10.16 98.07
2007-08 5055 115.91 68.9 106.66 348.188 123.66 26.357 130.84 220 119.67 10.55 101.83
2008-09 4415 101.24 64.6 100.00 285.029 101.23 14.539 72.17 230 125.11 10.03 96.81
2009-10 4175 95.73 70 108.36 292.302 103.81 18.912 93.88 210 114.23 10.19 98.36
2010-11 4944 113.37 68.6 106.19 339.168 120.45 24.394 121.09 207.36 112.79 10.17 98.17
2011-12 5093 116.79 70.3 108.82 325.9 115.74 25.8 128.07 214.12 116.47 10.17 98.17
Mean 4500 66.71 298 20.4 201.42 10.223
S.D 529 3.39 43.3 5.65 18.17 0.14
CV 11.76 5.08 14.53 27.72 9.02 1.37
CAGR 0.0174 0.0094 0.0164 0.0279 0.0171 -0.0021
Source: Secondary Data
86
87
The area, yield, production of sugarcane, production of sugar, consumption of
sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry have been shown in
Table 4.4. The highest growth of area in the year 2006-07 is 118.12, yield (t/ha) is
108.82 of 2011-2012, sugarcane production (million tonnes) in the year 2006-07 is
126.26, production sugar (million tonnes) is 140.62 in the year 2006-07, consumption
of sugar (LT) in the year 2008-09 is 125.11 and sugar recovery (percentage) in the
year 2007-08 is 101.83. The mean values of area, yield, production of sugarcane,
production of sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar
industry are 4500, 66.71, 298, 20.4, 201.42 and 10.223 respectively. The compound
annual growth rate of area, yield, production of sugarcane, production of sugar,
consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry which worked out
as 0.0174, 0.0094, 0.0164, 0.0279, 0.0171 and -0.0021 respectively. The coefficient
of variation indicates that the area, yield, production of sugarcane, production of
sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry were
moderately fluctuated during the study period.
Table 4.5
Estimates of Trend Co-Efficients for Area, Yield, Production of Sugarcane
and Sugar, Consumption of Sugar and Sugar Recovery of
Indian Sugar Industry (2002-03 to 2011-12)
S.
No.
Particulars P = α + βt + e
p-value
S/NS α βt R
2 F-value
1 Area (ha) 3941.47 101.46 33.7% 4.07 0.078 NS
2 Yield (t/ha) 62.22 0.816 53.2% 9.09 0.017* S
3 Sugarcane Production (MT)
250.77
8.58
36%
4.50
0.067
NS
4 Production of Sugar (MT) 15.67 0.859 21.2% 2.15 0.181 NS
5 Consumption of Sugar (LT) 175.45 4.72 61.9% 13.02 0.007** S
6 Sugar Recovery (Per cent) 10.29 0.0128 6.9% 0.59 0.464 NS
** P<0.01 *P<0.05 S – Significant NS – Not Significant
88
Hypothesis: “There is no significant difference between actual value and the trend
value of area, yield, production of sugarcane, sugar of production, consumption of
sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry among different years”
The results estimate of trend co-efficient for area, yield, production of
sugarcane, sugar production, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian
sugar industry are presented in Table 4.5. It is observed that, the p-value is less
than 0.01 per cent in consumption of sugar, the null hypothesis is rejected at one
per cent level of significance. Hence, there is significant difference between actual
value and the trend value of consumption of sugar in Indian sugar industry among
different years.
It is noted that, the p-value is less than 0.05 per cent in yield of sugar cane
in Indian sugar industry, the null hypothesis is rejected at five per cent level of
significance. Hence, there is significant difference between actual value and the
trend value of yield of sugar cane in the Indian sugar industry among different
years.
It is clear that, the p-value is more than 0.05 per cent in area, production of
sugar cane, sugar production and sugar recovery, the null hypothesis is accepted at
five per cent level of significance. Hence, there is no significant difference
between actual value and the trend value of area, production of sugar cane,
production of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar industry among different
years.
89
MA PE 2.72048
MA D 1.76764
MSD 4.83669
Yie
ld t
/h
a
A re
a
Figure 4.4
Trend Analysis of Area of Sugar Cane Cultivated in Indian Sugar Industry
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
Trend Analysis Plot for Area Linear Trend Model
Yt = 3941.47 + 101.461* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 8
MA D 350
MSD 167099
Index
Figure 4.5
Trend Analysis of Sugar Cane Yield in Indian Sugar Industry
Trend Analysis Plot for Yield t/ha Linear Trend Model
Yt = 62.22 + 0.816364* t
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts A ccuracy Measures
Index
90
Su
ga
rca
ne
(mill
ion
to
ns)
S
ug
ar
(Mill
ion
to
ns)
Figure 4.6
Trend Analysis of Sugar Cane Production in Indian Sugar Industry
400
350
300
250
Trend Analysis Plot for Sugarcane(million tons) Linear Trend Model
Yt = 250.768 + 8.58410* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 9.60
MA D 28.22
MSD 1079.91
Index
Figure 4.7
Trend Analysis of Sugar Production in Indian Sugar Industry
Trend Analysis Plot for Sugar (Million tons) Linear Trend Model
Yt = 15.6716 + 0.859309* t
30
25
20
15
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 21.9823
MA D 4.0371
MSD 22.6868
Index
91
Su
ga
r R
eco
ve
ry%
C
on
sum
pti
on
of
Su
ga
r(LT
)
Figure 4.8
Trend Analysis of Consumption of Sugar in Indian Sugar Industry
250
240
230
Trend Analysis Plot for Consumption of Sugar(LT) Linear Trend Model
Yt = 175.451 + 4.72206* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts
220
210
200
190
180
170
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 4.265
MA D 8.784
MSD 113.088
Index
Figure 4.9
Trend Analysis of Sugar Recovery in Indian Sugar Industry
10.6
10.5
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.1
10.0
Trend Analysis Plot for Sugar Recovery% Linear Trend Model
Yt = 10.2933 - 0.0127879* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 0.809690
MA D 0.083479
MSD 0.016312
Index
92
Table 4.6
Projections for Area, Yield, Production of Sugarcane, Production of Sugar,
Consumption of Sugar and Sugar Recovery of Indian Sugar Industry
(2012-13 to 2016-17)
Year
Area
(ha)
Yield
(t/ha)
Sugarcane
Production
(MT)
Production
of Sugar
(MT)
Consumption
of Sugar (LT)
Sugar
Recovery
(per cent)
2012-13
5057.53
71.2012
345.193
25.1242
227.393
10.1527
2013-14
5158.99
72.0164
353.777
25.9833
232.115
10.1399
2014-15
5260.45
72.8327
362.361
26.8426
236.837
10.1271
2015-16
5361.92
73.6491
370.945
27.7019
241.564
10.1143
2016-17
5463.38
74.4655
379.529
28.5612
246.282
10.1015
Source: Computed
The projections obtained for area, yield, production of sugarcane,
production of sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar recovery of Indian sugar
industry by linear growth models are listed in Table 4.6. It shows the area, yield,
production of sugarcane, production of sugar, consumption of sugar and sugar
recoveries have been growing marginally. The trend movement of area, yield,
production of sugarcane, production of sugar and consumption of sugar is
5463.38, 74.4655, 379.529, 28.5612 and 246.282 respectively. It will be highest
for the year 2016-17 and the sugar recovery is 10.1527 in 2012-13. The area,
yield, production of sugarcane, production of sugar and consumption of sugar will
be the lowest in the year 2012-13 and the sugar recovery in the year 2016-17.
Table 4.7
Annual Production of Sugar in Selected Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu (2002-2003 to 2011-2012)
(in MT)
Year
BASL DSCL EID RSCL SSL TASL
Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend
2002-03 105279 -675224 62515 41481 284136 227081 148108 129770 122176 105731 103867 101592
2003-04 38403 -372769 35280 56801 184559 238717 96505 136824 28291 125662 69688 104501
2004-05 37178 -70315 34329 72121 187521 250353 116147 143878 90549 145594 90286 107410
2005-06 94774 232140 113097 87441 317850 261990 193559 150932 284849 165525 161287 110319
2006-07 110513 534595 135399 102761 374811 273626 204580 157987 306209 185457 165724 113228
2007-08 76589 837050 143172 118081 256568 285263 179162 165041 215086 205388 107542 116136
2008-09 61394 1139505 94708 133401 248157 296899 139395 172095 169103 225320 99624 119045
2009-10 73655 1441959 103224 148721 213506 308536 140136 179149 122791 245252 70607 121954
2010-11 2635452 1744414 201030 164040 289746 320172 168743 186203 336538 265183 129795 124863
2011-12 3624987 2046869 181454 179360 437591 331808 228802 193258 278635 285115 148400 127772
Mean 685822 110421 279445 161514 195423 114682
S.D 1309487 56754 80974 41073 104222 35118
CV 190.94 51.40 28.98 25.43 53.33 30.62
CAGR 0.482 0.126 0.049 0.050 0.096 0.040
Source: Secondary Data
93
94
The annual production of sugar by the private sugar companies in Tamil Nadu
have been shown in Table 4.7. There was fluctuation in production of sugar in all
the selected sugar companies in Tamil Nadu. The highest mean values of
Bannariamman Sugar Ltd., is 685822 Mt., in EID Parry (India) Ltd., is 279445 Mt.,
and 195423 Mt. in Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,. The compound annual growth rate of
annual production which worked out as 0.482 of Bannariamman sugars Ltd., is the
highest in the selected private sector sugar companies. The coefficient of variation
indicates that the annual productions of selected private sector sugar companies
are moderately fluctuated during the study period.
Table 4.8
Estimates of Trend Co-Efficients for Production of Sugar in Selected Private
Sector Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu (2002-03 to 2011-12)
S.No.
Companies
P = α + βt + e
p-value
S/NS
α
Βt R2
F-value
1
BASL
977679
302455
48.9%
7.66
0.024*
S
2
DSCL
26161.4
15319.9
66.8%
16.09
0.004**
S
3
EID
215444
11636.4
18.9%
1.87
0.209
NS
4
RSCL
122715
7054.22
27%
2.96
0.123
NS
5
SSL
85799.1
19931.6
33.5%
4.03
0.079
NS
6
TASL
98682.7
2908.97
6.3%
0.54
0.485
NS
** P<0.01 *P<0.05 S- Significant NS – Not Significant
Hypothesis: “There is significant difference between actual value and the trend
value production of sugar among different years”.
95
The results estimate of trend co-efficient for production of sugar in selected
private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu is presented in Table 4.8. It is clear
that, the p-value is less than 0.01 per cent production of sugar in Dharani sugars
and Chemicals Ltd., the null hypothesis is rejected at one per cent level of
significance. Hence, there is significant difference between actual value and the
trend value of production of sugar in Dharani sugars and Chemicals Ltd., among
different years. It is noted that, the p-value is less than 0.05 per cent in production of
sugar in Bannariamman Sugars ltd., the null hypothesis is rejected at five per cent
level of significance. Hence, there is significant difference between actual value
and the trend value of production of sugar in Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., except
EID Parry (India) Ltd., Rajshree Sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,
and Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd., among different years.
96
Ba
nn
ari
am
ma
n
Dh
ara
ni
Figure 4.10
Trend Analysis of Production of Sugar in Bannariamman Sugars Ltd.,
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
Trend Analysis Plot for Bannariamman Linear Trend Model
Yt = -977679 + 302455*t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 7.31388E+02
MA D 7.53665E+05
MSD 7.88580E+11
Index
Figure 4.11
Trend Analysis of Production of Sugar in Dharani Sugars and Chemicals Ltd.,
Trend Analysis Plot for Dharani
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 26161.4 + 15319.9*t
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 37
MA D 28700
MSD 962653755
Index
97
Ra
jshr
ee
EID
Pa
rry
Figure 4.12
Trend Analysis of Production of Sugar in EID Parry (India) Ltd.,
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
Trend Analysis Plot for EID Parry Linear Trend Model
Yt = 215444 + 11636.4* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 24
MA D 63977
MSD 4784052340
Index
Figure 4.13
Trend Analysis of Production of Sugar in Rajshree Sugars and Chemicals Ltd.,
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
Trend Analysis Plot for Rajshree Linear Trend Model
Yt = 122715 + 7054.22* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 21
MA D 31445
MSD 1107790075
Index
98
Sa
kth
i Th
iru
A ro
ora
n
Figure 4.14
Trend Analysis of Production of Sugar in Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Trend Analysis Plot for Sakthi Linear Trend Model
Yt = 85799.1 + 19931.6* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 66
MA D 67515
MSD 6498522882
Index
Figure 4.15
Trend Analysis of Production of Sugar in Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd.,
Trend Analysis Plot for Thiru Arooran Linear Trend Model
Yt = 98682.7 + 2908.97* t
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 25
MA D 26260
MSD 1040141211
Index
99
Table 4.9
Projections for Production of Sugar in Selected Private Sector Sugar
Companies in Tamil Nadu (2012-13 to 2016-17)
(in MT)
Year BASL DSCL EID RSCL SSL TASL
2012-13 2349324 194680 343445 200312 305046 130681
2013-14 2651778 210000 355081 207366 324978 133590
2014-15 2954233 225320 366718 214420 344909 136499
2015-16 3256688 240640 378354 221475 364841 139408
2016-17 3559143 255960 389990 228529 384773 142317
Source: Computed
The projections obtained for production of selected private sector sugar
companies in Tamil Nadu by linear growth models listed in the above table.
It shows the private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu have growing
marginally. The trend movement production of selected private sector sugar
companies in Tamil Nadu for the year 2016-17, the production units will be the
highest in EID Parry (India) Ltd., and followed by Sakthi sugars Ltd.,
The production units will be the lowest in Thiru Arooran sugars Ltd.,
Table 4.10
Annual Sales of Selected Private Sector Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu (2002-2003 to 2011-2012)
(Rs. in crores)
Year
BASL DSCL EID RSCL SSL TASL
Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend
2002-03 345.550 514.333 134.790 32.224 1288.30 644.31 219.80 110.073 308.95 349.20 81.92 115.425
2003-04 467.310 528.095 81.500 101.114 560.37 719.17 161.22 169.040 290.09 485.43 127.36 171.629
2004-05 488.610 541.856 160.490 170.003 717.20 794.04 178.91 228.008 618.86 621.66 297.92 227.833
2005-06 632.640 555.618 315.390 238.893 926.18 868.90 256.01 286.975 879.86 757.89 298.71 284.036
2006-07 793.220 569.379 275.350 307.782 551.72 943.76 383.78 345.942 748.25 894.12 347.09 340.240
2007-08 524.720 583.141 198.540 376.672 616.45 1018.62 334.52 404.910 1023.16 1030.35 336.39 396.444
2008-09 698.840 596.902 222.610 445.561 755.57 1093.48 352.36 463.877 1372.82 1166.58 595.21 452.648
2009-10 877.040 610.664 578.310 514.451 1147.30 1168.35 522.01 522.844 2137.85 1302.81 428.10 508.851
2010-11 816.260 624.425 840.590 583.340 1536.65 1243.21 614.89 581.812 1121.27 1439.04 581.88 565.055
2011-12 118.411 638.187 614.699 652.230 1712.17 1318.07 730.76 640.779 1121.27 1575.27 588.84 621.259
Mean 576.3 342.2 981 375.4 962 368.3
S.D 235.3 250.0 419 191.6 543 182.8
CV 40.84 73.05 42.74 51.03 56.43 49.62
CAGR -0.112 0.184 0.032 0.143 0.154 0.245
Source: Secondary Data
100
101
The annual sales of sugar by the private sugar companies in Tamil Nadu
have been shown in Table 4.10. There was fluctuation in sales of sugar in all the
selected sugar companies in Tamil Nadu. The highest mean values of EID parry
(India) Ltd., is Rs.981 crores, in Sakthi sugars Ltd., is Rs.962 crores, and Rs.576.3
crores in Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., The compound annual growth rate of annual
sales which worked out as 0.245 of Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd., is the highest in
the selected private sector sugar companies. The coefficient of variation indicates
that the annual sales of selected private sector sugar companies are moderately
fluctuated during the study period.
Table 4.11
Estimates of Trend Co-Efficients for Annual Sales of Selected Private Sector
Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu (2000-01 to 2010-11)
S.
No.
Companies
P = α + βt + e
p-value
S/NS
α
Βt R2
F -value
1
BASL
500.57
13.76
3.1%
0.26
0.625
NS
2
DSCL
36.67
68.89
69.6%
18.32
0.003**
S
3
EID
569.45
74.86
29.2%
3.3
0.107
NS
4
RSCL
51.11
58.97
86.8%
52.78
0.00**
S
5
SSL
212.98
136.23
57.7%
10.91
0.01**
S
6
TASL
59.22
56.20
86.7%
52.07
0.00**
S
** P<0.01 S- Significant NS – Not Significant
Hypothesis: “There is no significant difference between actual value and the trend
value of annual sales of sugar among different years”.
102
The results estimate of trend co-efficient for sales of selected private sector
sugar companies in Tamil Nadu presented in Table 4.11. It is clear that, the
p-value is less than 0.01 per cent annual sales of sugar in Dharani sugars and
Chemicals Ltd., Rajshree sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Sakthi Sugars Ltd., and
Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd., the null hypothesis is rejected at one per cent level of
significance. Hence, there is significant difference between actual value and the
trend value of sales of sugar in Dharani Sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Rajshree
Sugars and Chemicals Ltd., Sakthi Sugars Ltd., and Thiru Arooran sugars Ltd.,
except Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., and EID parry (India) Ltd., among different
years.
103
Dh
ara
ni
Ba
nna
ria
mm
an
Figure 4.16
Trend Analysis of Sales of Sugar in Bannariamman Sugars Ltd.,
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Trend Analysis Plot for Bannariamman Linear Trend Model
Yt = 500.572 + 13.7615* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 63.2
MA D 172.2
MSD 48278.3
Index
Figure 4.17
Trend Analysis of Sales of Sugar in Dharani Sugars and Chemicals Ltd.,
Trend Analysis Plot for Dharani Linear Trend Model
Yt = -36.6652 + 68.8895*t
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 38.0
MA D 100.0
MSD 17100.1
Index
104
MA PE 32
MA D 278
MSD 112061
EID
Pa
rry
Ra
jsh
ree
Figure 4.18
Trend Analysis of Sales of Sugar in EID Parry (India) Ltd.,
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
Trend Analysis Plot for EID Parry Linear Trend Model
Yt = 569.451 + 74.8618* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts A ccuracy Measures
Index
Figure 4.19
Trend Analysis of Sales of Sugar in Rajshree Sugars and Chemicals Ltd.,
Trend Analysis Plot for Rajshree Linear Trend Model
Yt = 51.1053 + 58.9674* t
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 17.47
MA D 54.12
MSD 4348.45
Index
105
MA PE 17.51
MA D 50.20
MSD 4004.21
Sa
kth
i Th
iru
A ro
ora
n
Figure 4.20
Trend Analysis of Sales of Sugar in Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Trend Analysis Plot for Sakthi Linear Trend Model
Yt = 212.975 + 136.230* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 24
MA D 233
MSD 112291
Index
Figure 4.21
Trend Analysis of Sales of Sugar in Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd.,
Trend Analysis Plot for Thiru Arooran Linear Trend Model
Yt = 59.2213 + 56.2038*t
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts A ccuracy Measures
Index
106
Table 4.12
Projections for Annual Sales of Sugar in Selected Private Sector Sugar
Companies in Tamil Nadu (2012-13 to 2016-17)
(Rs. in crores)
Year
BASL
DSCL
EID
RSCL
SSL
TASL
2012-13
651.948
721.119
1392.93
699.747
1711.50
677.463
2013-14
665.709
790.009
1467.79
758.714
1847.73
733.666
2014-15
679.471
858.898
1542.65
817.681
1983.96
789.870
2015-16
693.232
927.788
1617.52
876.649
2120.19
846.074
2016-17
706.994
996.677
1692.38
935.616
2256.42
902.278
Source: Computed
The projections obtained for annual sales of selected private sector sugar
companies in Tamil Nadu by linear growth models are listed in Table 4.12.
It shows the private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu have been growing
marginally. The trend movement sales of selected private sector sugar companies
in Tamil Nadu for the year 2016-17, the sales will be the highest in Sakthi sugars
Ltd., and followed by EID Parry (India) Ltd., the annual sales will be the lowest in
Bannariamman Sugars Ltd.,
Table 4.13
Annual Crushing of Sugar Canes by Selected Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu (2002-2003 to 2011-2012) (in MT)
Year
BASL DSCL EID RSCL SSL TASL
Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend Actual Trend
2002-03 977246 148265 665951 541022 2954526 2358890 1429034 1273653 1247672 1284803 977246 1358421
2003-04 370187 380227 372919 670519 1937186 2503029 928868 1364093 278226 1451099 370187 1289951
2004-05 387288 612189 389126 800015 2052195 2647168 1136340 1454532 992062 1617395 387288 1221482
2005-06 944189 844150 1264649 929512 2825282 2791308 2045334 1544972 3046861 1783691 944189 1153013
2006-07 1089582 1076112 1500723 1059008 4106477 2935447 2140204 1635411 3240162 1949988 1089582 1084544
2007-08 775437 1308074 1547093 1188504 3462929 3079586 1916428 1725851 3074090 2116284 775437 1016074
2008-09 579221 1540036 1055849 1318001 2624760 3223725 1455989 1816290 1847036 2282580 579221 947605
2009-10 750835 1771997 1204317 1447497 2473677 3367865 1594328 1906730 1348315 2448876 750835 879136
2010-11 2585486 2003959 1328721 1576994 2835736 3512004 1725139 1997169 2356303 2615173 2585486 810667
2011-12 3461458 2235921 1908214 1706490 4802397 3656143 2434644 2087609 2900630 2781469 3461458 742197
Mean 1192093 1123756 3007517 1680631 2033136 1050309
S.D 1015264 508011 893928 465826 1038655 503682
CV 85.17 45.21 29.72 27.72 51.09 47.96
CAGR 0.151 0.124 0.055 0.061 0.098 0.151
Source: Secondary Data
107
108
The annual crushing of sugar cane by the private sugar companies in
Tamil Nadu has been shown in Table 4.13. There was fluctuation in crushing of
sugar cane in all the selected sugar companies in Tamil Nadu. The highest mean
values of EID Parry (India) Ltd., is 3007517 Mt., in Sakthi Sugars Ltd., is
2033136 Mt., and 1680631 Mt. in Rajshree sugars and Chemicals Ltd., and the
compound annual growth rate of crushing of sugar cane which worked out as
0.151 of Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., and Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd., is the highest
in the selected private sector sugar companies. The coefficient of variation
indicates that the crushing of sugar cane of selected private sector sugar companies
are moderately fluctuated during the study period.
Table 4.14
Estimates of Trend Co-Efficients for Annual Crushing of Sugar Canes by
Selected Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu (2002-03 to 2011-12)
S. No.
Companies
P = α + βt + e
p-value
S/NS
α
Βt R2
F-value
1
BASL
83696.7
231962
47.9%
7.34
0.027*
S
2
DSCL
411526
129496
59.6%
11.78
0.009**
S
3
EID
2214750
144139
23.8%
2.5
0.152
NS
4
RSCL
1183214
90439.5
34.6%
4.22
0.074
NS
5
SSL
1118506
166296
23.5
2.46
0.156
NS
6
TASL
1426890
68469.2
47.9%
7.34
0.027*
S
** P<0.01 *P<0.05 S- Significant NS – Not Significant
Hypothesis: “There is no significant difference between actual value and the trend
value of crushing capacity of sugar cane among different years”
109
The results estimate of trend co-efficient for annual crushing capacity of
selected private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu are presented in
Table 4.14. It is clear that, the p-value is less than 0.01 per cent and 0.05 per cent
in crushing of sugar cane in Dharani sugars and Chemicals Ltd., and
Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., Thiru Arooran sugars Ltd., respectively the null
hypothesis is rejected at one per cent and five per cent level of significance
respectively. Hence, there is significant difference between actual value and the
trend value of crushing of sugar cane in Dharani sugars and Chemicals Ltd.,
Bannariamman Sugars Ltd., and Thiru Arooran sugars Ltd., except EID Parry
(India) Ltd., Rajshree sugars and Chemicals Ltd., and Sakthi sugars Ltd., among
different years.
110
Ba
nn
ari
am
ma
n
D h
a r a
n i
Figure 4.22
Trend Analysis of Crushing of Sugar Cane by Bannariamman Sugars Ltd.,
3500000
3000000
2500000
C 2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Trend Analysis Plot for Bannariamman Linear Trend Model
Yt = -83696.7 + 231962*t
Variable Actual
Fits
Forecasts
Accuracy Measures
MAPE 5.85912E+01
MAD 5.49911E+05 MSD 4.83783E+11
Index
Figure 4.23
Trend Analysis of Crushing of Sugar Cane by Dharani Sugars Ltd.,
T r e n d A n a l y s i s P l o t f o r D h a r a n i
L i n e a r T r e n d M o d e l
Y t = 4 1 1 5 2 6 + 1 2 9 4 9 6 * t
2 5 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0 0
V a r ia b le
A c tu a l
F its
F o r e c a s ts
A c c u r a c y M e a s u r e s
M A P E 3 . 5 7 5 4 5 E + 0 1
M A D 2 . 9 2 4 1 9 E + 0 5
M S D 9 . 3 9 2 1 0 E + 1 0
In d e x
110
111
Ra
jshr
ee
EID
Pa
rry
Figure 4.24
Trend Analysis of Crushing of Sugar Cane by EID Parry (India) Ltd.,
5000000
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
Trend Analysis Plot for EID Parry Linear Trend Model
Yt = 2214750 + 144139*t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 2.25835E+01
MA D 6.66047E+05
MSD 5.47794E+11
Index
Figure 4.25
Trend Analysis of Crushing of Sugar Cane by Rajshree Sugars Ltd.,
2600000
2400000
2200000
2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
Trend Analysis Plot for Rajshree Linear Trend Model
Yt = 1183214 + 90439.5* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 2.18088E+01
MA D 3.39630E+05
MSD 1.27815E+11
Index
112
Thir
u A
roo
ran
Sa
kth
i
Figure 4.26
Trend Analysis of Crushing of Sugar Cane by Sakthi Sugars Ltd.,
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
Trend Analysis Plot for Sakthi Linear Trend Model
Yt = 1118506 + 166296* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 7.20297E+01
MA D 7.26062E+05
MSD 7.42774E+11
Index
Figure 4.27
Trend Analysis of Crushing of Sugar Cane by Thiru Arooran Sugars Ltd.,
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Trend Analysis Plot for Thiru Arooran Linear Trend Model
Yt = 1426890 - 68469.2* t
Variable
A ctual
F its
F orecasts
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE 6.23971E+01
MA D 3.61646E+05
MSD 1.89649E+11
Index
113
Table 4.15
Projections for Annual Crushing of Sugar Cane by Selected Private Sector
Sugar Companies in Tamil Nadu (2012-13 to 2016-17)
(in MT)
Year
BASL
DSCL
EID
RSCL
SSL
TASL
2012-13
2467882
1835986
3800283
2178048
2947765
673728
2013-14
2699844
1965483
3944422
2268487
3114061
605259
2014-15
2931806
2094979
4088561
2358927
3280357
536790
2015-16
3163768
2224476
4232701
2449366
3446654
468320
2016-17
3395729
2353972
4376840
2539806
3612950
399851
Source: Computed
The projections obtained for annual crushing of sugar cane by selected
private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu by linear growth models listed in
Table 3.15. It shows the private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu have been
growing marginally. The trend movement crushing of sugar cane by selected
private sector sugar companies in Tamil Nadu for the year 2016-17, the crushing
of sugar cane will be the highest in EID Parry (India) Ltd., and followed by
Thiru Arooran sugars Ltd., The crushing of sugar cane units will be the lowest in
Dharani sugars and Chemicals Ltd.,
114
REFERENCES
1. http://www.sugarcane crops.com/introduction/ 2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/sugarcane
3. http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/X0513E/x0513e16.htm
4. ISMA Indian sugar year book 2005-06
5. KPMG Analysis
6. www.industrialeconomist.com/March%202011/46.pdf
7. AC Nielsen, Business World Marketing White book 2006. Sugar production
for the year 2007 has been estimated to be 27 million MT Source: ISMA
8. http://www.indianmirror.com/indian-industries/sugar.html 9. http://www.sugarresearch.library.qut.edu.au/108/1/Cane_Sugar_Manufacture
_in_India.pdf 10. http://www.ponnisugars.com/attachments/INDUPD.pdf
11. http://business.mapsofindia.com/sugar-industry/Tamil Nadu.html
12. http://www.tn.gov.in/sugar/dept.htm
13. http://www.eidparry.com/the-company/about-us.aspx, Profile: E.I.D-Parry
(India) Ltd
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