himalayan climate change adaptation programme (hicap) climate change, vulnerability, and food...
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Himalayan Climate
Change Adaptation
Programme
(HICAP)
Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Mountain Day 2, UNFCCC COP 18, Doha
Overview
• Adaptation challenges
• Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme
• Initial results on food security
• Key messages
Main Challenges
Uncertainties impeding local action
•Local-level climate projections not yet established
•Local institutions still unaware of the issue
•Community knowledge underexplored
Putting Adaptation in Motion
But we cannot wait until knowledge is perfect!
Mainstreaming adaptation options in planning requires:
• Local level projections and scientific analysis
• Understanding of the institutional landscape
• Understanding of local knowledge
• Good pilots
HICAPClimate change
scenarios Water availability and demand scenarios
Ecosystem services
Foodsecurity
Vulnerability and adaptation
Gender in adaptation
Communication and outreach
Sub-basin level
Localcommunity
level
Cross cuttingcomponents
Goal: Enhance resilience to change,particularly climate change
Objectives: •Reduce uncertainty•Knowledge and capacity development•Actionable proposals
Climate Science
EnvironmentalScience
SocialScience
HICAP: Selected Sub-basins
Vulnerability and Adaptation
•Quantitative and place-based qualitative
•3 river sub-basins in India, Nepal, Pakistan
•Over 6,000 householdsand 500 settlements
•Wide range of issues affecting vulnerability and adaptive capacity
Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment
Mountain Farming Systems
• Small-holder agriculture with fragmented land
• Mixed farming systems
• Low inputs, limited equipment, labour shortage
• Predominantly rain-fed agriculture with high vulnerability to climatic changes
New Environment Stressors
Most common environmental changes noted in the last 10 years
Coping Strategies
N =1,155, 100%, data: VACA 2011/12
Three most common coping strategies to deal with change in last 10 years
Contribution of food from different sources to household consumption (%)
Food Security Profile: Access
River sub-basins Self-produced Bought from store
Food subsidies/aid
Other
Eastern Brahmaputra (India)
34 51 9 5
Koshi (Nepal)
54 44 <1 2
Upper Indus (Pakistan)
30 65 5 5
Average 41 51 5 3
Source: VACA data 2012
Over 90% of food comes from their own sources….…..without any support from outside
Contribution of food from different sources to household consumption (%)
Food Security Profile: Stability/Productivity
Top 3 staple and cash crops – reported productivity trends (last 10 years)
Staple CropsEastern Brahmaputra
Koshi Upper Indus
Main paddy Main paddy Wheat
Early paddy Summer maize
Summer vegetables
Winter vegetables
Wheat Summer potato
Cash CropsEastern Brahmaputra
Koshi Upper Indus
Ginger Summer potato
Apple
Mustard Mustard Summer Potato
Chilly Garlic Apricot
Source: VACA data 2012
With a few exceptions, the productivity in most crops is decreasing
Upper mountains in Nepal:
potato an advantageous ‘adaptation crop’
Food Security Profile: Utilization
• Unbalanced diets, micronutrient deficiencies
• Erosion of traditional practices and agro-/diet diversity
• Weak socioeconomic position of women/children
• Food prices affect everyone but disproportionate impact on poor
Adapting/Coping to Changes
• Farmers are cluelessWhy are changes happening?
• Farmers are coping But changes are happening faster than they can handle; sometimes lifelong disadvantage
• Water is the ‘gateway’ to most problems and solutionsClimatic variability exaggerates problems
• Indigenous solutions are often best Research, document, and upscale
Adaptation? Do we prepare for the unpredictable or the predicted?
Way Forward
• Further analysis of resultsCorrelate food security with climatic/hydrological scenarios
• Prevent maladaptation, improve resilience Technology and traditional knowledge
• Improve response mechanismEarly warning systems and flood management
• Reduce farming riskInsurance, market and farmers centric
extension services, particularly for rainfed farming
Thank you
Himalayan Climate
Change Adaptation
Programme
(HICAP)
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