how to measure influence in social networks

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Sinan Aral's talk on measuring influence given at Planning-ness 2012

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@sinanaral

Influence in Social Media Networks

@sinanaral

Measuring Influence in Social (Media) Networks

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

Influence in Social Media Networks

@sinanaral

The Problem

Industrial Strength Examples

How to Mine An Influence Graph

@sinanaral

Influence in Social Media Networks

@sinanaral

The Problem

Industrial Strength Examples

How to Mine An Influence Graph

@sinanaral@sinanaral

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

37minutes

Checks every

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

5xdaily

Posts to

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

4xper

week

Reviewson

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

1hour

Updates every

@sinanaral

@sinanaral@sinanaral

@sinanaral@sinanaral

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

If we can understand how behaviors spread…

@sinanaral

from person

to person

to person

to person

@sinanaral

we could promote

@sinanaral

condom use, exercise, productivity, tolerance, financial responsibility, sustainability, economic

development…

@sinanaral

or contain

@sinanaral

smoking, dirty needle sharing, fraud, default,

obesity, violence, hatred, waste,

poverty…

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

Influence in Social Media Networks

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

The “Reflection Problem”

Human behaviors cluster in

network space and time…

but is this because of

peer influence or

alternate explanations?

@sinanaral

“Obesity is Contagious”

Christakis & Fowler (2007)

@sinanaral

“Birds of a feather, flock together”

Robert Burton (1577-1640)

Homophily

@sinanaral

Aristotle

“(People) love those who are like themselves”

@sinanaral

Plato

“Similarity begets friendship”

@sinanaral

Sinan’s Mom

“Hanging out with a bad crowd will get you into

trouble”

“Everything is Contagious”

“Obesity

is C

ontagious”

Alternative explanations:

Reflection

Homophily

Confounding

@sinanaral

Influence in Social Media Networks

@sinanaral

The Problem

Industrial Strength Examples

How to Mine An Influence Graph

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

INF

LU

EN

CE

DAYS SINCE LAUNCH

P(Adoption | Friend Adopts)

Controlling for correlated preferencesand confounding effects

The “iPad Effect”

@sinanaral@sinanaral

“VIRAL DESIGN” Can we engineer products so they are more likely to be virally shared?

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

The Setup

App

Randomly Enabled Viral Messaging.Observed the Adoption and Use of the App by Friends of

Control and Experimental Group Users.

@sinanaral

Flixster - An Example Facebook Application

@sinanaral

Flixster - An Example Facebook Application

@sinanaral

Users can invite friends to install this application and include a personal message

Users can invite their friends to adopt the application and join their social network on the application itself.

Users can invite friends to install this application and include a personal messageUsers can invite friends to install this application and include a personal messageUsers can invite friends to install this application and include a personal message

Users can invite their friends to adopt the application and join their social network on the application itself.

Users can invite their friends to adopt the application and join their social network on the application itself.

@sinanaral

Users can invite friends to install this application and include a personal message

Users can invite their friends to adopt the application and join their social network on the application itself.

Users can invite friends to install this application and include a personal messageUsers can invite friends to install this application and include a personal messageUsers can invite friends to install this application and include a personal message

Users can invite their friends to adopt the application and join their social network on the application itself.

Users can invite their friends to adopt the application and join their social network on the application itself.

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

Personal Invitations

Passive Awareness

Influence Per Message

Global Diffusion

Stickiness

Which Features Spread Contagion Best?

↑6% ↑2%

↑98% ↑246%

↑17% 0%

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

@sinanaral@sinanaral

@sinanaral@sinanaral

@thesocialcure

@sinanaral

Influence in Social Media Networks

@sinanaral

The Problem

Industrial Strength Examples

How to Mine An Influence Graph

@sinanaral

#planningness

@sinanaral

http://www.followthehashtag.com/

@sinanaral

#planningness 2012

@sinanaral

#planningness

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

#planningness

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

NodeXL

Gephi

http://nodexl.codeplex.com

https://gephi.org/

@sinanaral

NodeXL

@sinanaral

NodeXL

@sinanaral

Gephi

@sinanaral

Gephi

@sinanaral

Gephi

@sinanaral

Gephi

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

Influence in Social Media Networks

@sinanaral

Measuring Influence in Social (Media) Networks

@sinanaral

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