how to think rationally about the future
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Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
How to think rationally about the future
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic
2010-07-03
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
How to think rationally about the future
1 Cognitive bias
2 The arithmetic of reason
3 Concluding remarks
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
LessWrong.com
lesswrong.com
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Future of Humanity Institute
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
1982
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
The Second International Congress on Forecasting,
1982
First group
a complete suspension ofdiplomatic relations betweenthe USA and the SovietUnion, sometime in 1983
Second group
a Russian invasion ofPoland, and a completesuspension of diplomaticrelations between the USAand the Soviet Union,sometime in 1983
[Tversky and Kahneman, 1983]
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
The Second International Congress on Forecasting,
1982
First group
a complete suspension ofdiplomatic relations betweenthe USA and the SovietUnion, sometime in 1983
Second group
a Russian invasion ofPoland, and a completesuspension of diplomaticrelations between the USAand the Soviet Union,sometime in 1983
[Tversky and Kahneman, 1983]
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
What is a cognitive bias?
A fallibility in human thought
Not random but directed
Revealed by experiment
Compared to a model of reason
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
The science of bias
Does this experiment measure what it’s trying tomeasure?
22 experiments in that one paper
1431 cites on Google Scholar
Example: intuitive likelihood vs probability
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
The science of bias
Does this experiment measure what it’s trying tomeasure?
22 experiments in that one paper
1431 cites on Google Scholar
Example: intuitive likelihood vs probability
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
The science of bias
Does this experiment measure what it’s trying tomeasure?
22 experiments in that one paper
1431 cites on Google Scholar
Example: intuitive likelihood vs probability
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
The science of bias
Does this experiment measure what it’s trying tomeasure?
22 experiments in that one paper
1431 cites on Google Scholar
Example: intuitive likelihood vs probability
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Which is the best bet?
Die has four green faces, two red faces
Rolled 20 times, a sequence of 20 Gs and Rs recorded
If your chosen sequence appears, you win $25
Which sequence will you choose?
Sequence 1
RGRRR
Sequence 2
GRGRRR
Sequence 3
GRRRRR[Tversky and Kahneman, 1983]
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Anchoring bias
Anchor Medianestimate
10% 25%65% 45%
[Tversky and Kahneman, 1974]
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Scope neglect
Flight terrorism, Thailand to US leg $17.19Flight terrorism, round trip $13.90Terrorism, flight and ground $7.44
[Johnson et al., 1993]
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Scope neglect - one child or eight?
One identified child 10.71Eight identified children 5.03
[Kogut and Ritov, 2005]
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Biased assimilation
[Lord et al., 1979]Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Biased assimilation
Ficticious research A
Kroner and Phillips (1977)compared murder rates forthe year before and the yearafter adoption of capitalpunishment in 14 states. In11 of the 14 states, murderrates were lower afteradoption of the deathpenalty. This researchsupports the deterrenteffect of the deathpenalty.
Ficticious research B
Palmer and Crandall (1977)compared murder rates in 10pairs of neighbouring stateswith different capitalpunishment laws. In 8 of the10 states, murder rates werehigher in the state withcapital punishment. Thisresearch opposes thedeterrent effect of thedeath penalty.
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Biased assimilation
Ficticious research C
Kroner and Phillips (1977)compared murder rates forthe year before and the yearafter adoption of capitalpunishment in 14 states. In11 of the 14 states, murderrates were higher afteradoption of the deathpenalty. This researchopposes the deterrenteffect of the deathpenalty.
Ficticious research D
Palmer and Crandall (1977)compared murder rates in 10pairs of neighbouring stateswith different capitalpunishment laws. In 8 of the10 states, murder rates werelower in the state withcapital punishment. Thisresearch supports thedeterrent effect of thedeath penalty.
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Reason is a kludge
Wikipedia: 150 articles
Confirmation bias
Hindsight effect
Illusory correlation
Overconfidence effect
Choice-supportive bias
Zero-risk bias
Bystander effect
Illusory superiority
...[Mercier and Sperber, 2010]
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Arithmetic is the straight edge
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Probability
0% 100%
50%17% 40%
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Probability
0% 100%50%
17% 40%
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Probability
0% 100%50%17%
40%
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Probability
0% 100%50%17% 40%
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Cox’s theorem
l(¬A) = f (l(A))
l(A ∧ B) = g(l(A), l(B |A))
...
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Bayes Theorem
20% of the population have the disease
The test is 80% accurate
If you test positive, what’s the probability you have thedisease?
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Bayes theorem
16%
16%
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Bayes theorem
16%
16%
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Bayes theorem
16%
16%
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Bayes theorem
16%
16%
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Bayes theorem
16%
16%
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Bayes theorem
16%
16%
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Bayes theorem
16%
16%
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Other tools
Solomonoff induction
Von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem
Economics
Game theory
Picoeconomics
...
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Knowing about cognitive biases can harm you
Motivated skepticism again
but armed with new tools
Let the winds of evidence blow you about as thoughyou are a leaf, with no direction of your own.
[Yudkowsky, 2006]
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Cognitive biasThe arithmetic of reason
Concluding remarks
Conclusion
Cognitive psychology
Probability theory, decision theory, economics
Quantitative thinking
Straightening the crooked timber of our reason
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Bibliography
Bibliography I
Johnson, E. J., Hershey, J., Meszaros, J., and Kunreuther,H. (1993).Framing, probability distortions, and insurance decisions.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7(1):35–51.
Kogut, T. and Ritov, I. (2005).The singularity effect of identified victims in separate andjoint evaluations.Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,97(2):106–116.
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Bibliography
Bibliography II
Lord, C. G., Ross, L., and Lepper, M. R. (1979).Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effectsof prior theories on subsequently considered evidence.Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,37(11):2098–2109.
Mercier, H. and Sperber, D. (2010).Why do humans reason? Arguments for an argumentativetheory.
Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1974).Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases.Science, 185(4157):1124–1131.
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
Bibliography
Bibliography III
Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1983).Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunctionfallacy in probability judgment.Psychological Review, 90(4):293–315.
Yudkowsky, E. S. (2006).Twelve virtues of rationality.
Paul Crowley and Roko Mijic How to think rationally about the future
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