ibfra presentation monday · 2019. 7. 2. · capturing complexity maartje j klapwijk, johanna...

Capturing Complexity

Maartje J Klapwijk, Johanna Boberg, Johan Bergh, Kevin Bishop, Christer Björkman, David Ellison, Adam Felton, Rolf Lidskog, Tomas Lundmark, E. Carina H. Keskitalo, Johan Sonesson, Annika Nordin, Eva-Maria Nordström, Jan Stenlid &

Erland Mårald

Affliations: Umeå University, Örebro University, Linnean University and The Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

Is there enough forest?

Forests in climate mitigation

No clear direction

S T A T E

Current

Target

Socio-Ecologicalsystem

S T A T E

ACTION

Aim:

To explore a range of interacting obstacles which inhibit the

increased use of forests as a climate change mitigation tool.

COGNITIVE

STRATEGIC

INSTITUTIONAL

NORMATIVE

COGNITIVE

STRATEGIC

INSTITUTIONAL

NORMATIVE

COGNITIVE

STRATEGIC

INSTITUTIONAL

NORMATIVE

Carbon Accounting Bio-energy

Disagreement on models

Constructed problem in the institutional

international context

Disagreement on models–prevent formulation of policy

due to lack of long-term strategy

Social values as to whose arguments are

the most trustworthy inhibit progress

Carbon Accounting

COGNITIVE

STRATEGIC

INSTITUTIONAL

NORMATIVE

S T A T E

Current

Target

Socio-Ecologicalsystem

S T A T E

ACTION

X

Disagreement on models

Constructed problem in the institutional

international context

Disagreement on models–prevent formulation of policy

due to lack of long-term strategy

Social values as to whose arguments are

the most trustworthy inhibit progress

Carbon Accounting

COGNITIVE

STRATEGIC

INSTITUTIONAL

NORMATIVE

S T A T E

Current

Target

Socio-Ecologicalsystem

S T A T E

ACTION

X

COGNITIVE

STRATEGIC

INSTITUTIONAL

NORMATIVE

S T A T E

Current

Target

Socio-Ecologicalsystem

S T A T E

ACTION

XBio-energy

Unclear what forest products to use and

quantitative contribution to

mitigation unclear

Market uncertainties related to energy price

No incentives to increase

the use of forest products

for bio-energyDisagreement on

acceptable forest use

COGNITIVE

STRATEGIC

INSTITUTIONAL

NORMATIVE

S T A T E

Current

Target

Socio-Ecologicalsystem

S T A T E

ACTION

XBio-energy

Unclear what forest products to use and

quantitative contribution to

mitigation unclear

Market uncertainties related to energy price

No incentives to increase

the use of forest products

for bio-energyDisagreement on

acceptable forest use

Carbon Accounting Bio-energy

Supportive institutional context created

Scientific knowledge obtained

Socio -

ecological

system

S T A T ECurrent

Target

S T A T E

Mutual trust achieved

Shared values agreed

Obstacle: Lacking scientific knowledge

Obstacle: Non-supportive institutional context

Obstacle: Uncertainty about consequences

Obstacle: Opposing values

Alternative Observedpathways

Acknowledgements

Erland Mårald,

Professor in the history of ideas

Johanna Boberg

Researcher in forest mycology and pathology

https://www.slu.se/en/Collaborative-Centres-and-Projects/future-forests/

And all other contributing authors