icosystem corporation and predictive analytics iop 2006 january 18, 2006
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Icosystem Corporation and Icosystem Corporation and Predictive AnalyticsPredictive Analytics
IOP 2006January 18, 2006
Who knows what the future holds?Who knows what the future holds?
Predicting the future requires more than looking at the past…
Who knows what the future holds?Who knows what the future holds?
Predictive AnalyticsPredictive Analytics
Icosystem uses advanced analytical techniques that don’t just extrapolate the past into the future.
• Agent Based Modeling
• Interactive Search
• Agent Based Modeling
• Interactive Search
“History shows you don't know what the future brings.”-Rick Wagoner, GM CEO
Who uses our models?Who uses our models?
Corporate:
• Aventis• BP• DuPont• Eli Lilly• Humana• La Poste• PepsiCo• Schlumberger• Unilever
Government:
• Air Force Research Lab
• U.S. Army• DARPA• DISA• IDA• NUWC• OFT• ONR
What is Agent Based Modeling?What is Agent Based Modeling?
• Bottom-up simulations from the perspective of an individual person/company/market
• Interactions between individuals change behaviors during course of simulation
• Global trends emerge, rather than being determined up front
Emergent behavior: the Icosystem Emergent behavior: the Icosystem gamegame
Computer simulation of the Icosystem Computer simulation of the Icosystem gamegame
A is the aggressor, B the defender, try to keep B between you and A
A is the aggressor, you are the defender, keep yourself between A
and B
See demo at http://www.icosystem.com/game.htm
Why is this interesting?Why is this interesting?
The Icosystem Game:a deceptively simple complex system
• Knowing the behavior of every individual is not enough to predict system behavior
• Slight changes in rules or interactions can lead to dramatic changes in system behavior
• The traditional reductionist (i.e., divide-and-conquer) does not work!
Supermarket Shopper BehaviorSupermarket Shopper Behavior
Parking lot
Produce
Deli
RegistersEntrance
Fro
zen
fo
od
CSD
entrance
target
Client:Fortune 500 consumer goods company
Challenge:Understand behavior of shoppers moving through a supermarket
•How do they navigate?•What do they purchase?•Where to place products?
Complexities:•Correlate cart tracking data with consumer behavior•Predict behavior for novel supermarket configurations Outcome:Identified key behavioral drivers; tool development contracted in Q2’05.
Client:Fortune 500 consumer goods company
Challenge:Understand behavior of shoppers moving through a supermarket
•How do they navigate?•What do they purchase?•Where to place products?
Complexities:•Correlate cart tracking data with consumer behavior•Predict behavior for novel supermarket configurations Outcome:Identified key behavioral drivers; tool development contracted in Q2’05.
Predictive AnalyticsPredictive Analytics
Technique #2: Interactive Search
“I know well what I am fleeing from, but not what I am in search of.”-Michel de Montaigne
Drug DiscoveryDrug Discovery
Client:Fortune 100 pharma company
Challenge:Increase the success rate/ quality of molecules in the early stages of drug development
Complexities:•Vast search space•Chemist knowledge cannot be completely codified•Huge expense for each failureOutcome:Created tool which generates novel compound designs based on interactive chemist feedback
Client:Fortune 100 pharma company
Challenge:Increase the success rate/ quality of molecules in the early stages of drug development
Complexities:•Vast search space•Chemist knowledge cannot be completely codified•Huge expense for each failureOutcome:Created tool which generates novel compound designs based on interactive chemist feedback
olympic
food
transit
religion
bobsled
skiinggold
bronze
rings
security
pins
nationalceremony
biathlon
skating
winter
torch
Torino
US troops
preparation
buyingrice
eggplant
spicesshortage
cafe
burghallamb
pride
lentil
pastry
storage
saffronsafety
road
truckbuscar
pedestriangoat
bridge
checkpointbarricade
explosion
helicopter
engineer
build
mosque
prayer
fundamental
MuslimSunniShi’a
Al Qaeda
Festival of Eid
freedom
jihad
peace
defendsave
forgive
war
United States
Marines Armydefend uniforms
gunsbombkill
save
brave
warIraq
liberty
electionssuccess
destroy
childrensafety
toysplay
learn
friendXbox 360
bikelaugh
train
schoolEnglish
Baby Noor
doll
pencil
Interactive Search applied to Open Interactive Search applied to Open Source informationSource information
What if we could easily
monitor communication
volume
AND
content?
olympic transit
religion
bobsled
skiinggold
bronze
rings
pins
nationalceremony
biathlon
skating
winterTorino
road
truckbuscar
pedestriangoat
bridge
checkpointbarricade
explosion
helicopter
engineer
build
mosque
prayer
fundamental
MuslimSunniShi’a
Al Qaeda
Festival of Eid
freedom
jihad
peace
defendsave
forgive
war
United States
Marines Armydefend uniforms
bombkill
save
brave
warIraq
liberty
success
destroy
childrensafety
toysplay
learn
friendXbox 360
bikelaugh
train
schoolEnglish
Baby Noor
doll
pencil
foodbuying
rice
shortage
cafe
burghal
lentil
pastry
storage
safety saffronUS troops
preparationeggplant
spices
lamb
Interactive Search applied to Open Interactive Search applied to Open Source informationSource information
shortageUS troops
riceburghal
Oil-for-food
safety
farmersdrought
giant hamstersheat
refrigerationstarvation
seedswater
irrigation
labor
giant hamsters
airdrop
starvation
hamsters of mass destruction
unleash
hamster plague
destroydestroy rations
US troops
Come see us at our table!Come see us at our table!
“My therapist told me the way to achieve true inner peace is to finish what I start. So far today, I have finished 2 bags of M and M's and a chocolate cake. I feel better already.”- Dave Barry
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