immigrants: resource for minnesota's economy
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Immigrants: Resource for MN’s Economy
November 2009
Immigrant Contributions to MN’s Economy
• Workers
• Entrepreneurs
• Consumers
• Contributions change over time!
Workers
• Immigrant wkrs = majority of labor force growth
• 6.5% of population – 8% of workforce– 370,000 people– 240,000 workers– 60,000 – 80,000 undocumented
• MN growth depends on imported labor
Labor Force Growth Will Slow Sharply
1.12%
0.75%
0.43%
0.10% 0.13%
0.27%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35
Ave
An
nu
al C
han
ge
Migration Will Be Increasingly Important Re Growing the Labor Force
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2000-10 2010-20 2020-30
Total Natural Part Rate Migration
Net Labor Force Growth
State Demographer projection revised 2007
Vacancies…Even in Recession
Source: Grow Minnesota! Annual Report, 2008-2009
Hiring issues: Past 6 months or next 6 months
36%
22%
15%
8%
8%
6%5%
Precision production
Management
Sales/marketing
Information technology
Part-time
Temporary
Clerical/office staff
Warning!
Trespassers Will Be Recruited
What Industries Fueled by Immigrant Works? (Top 5)
Source: Migration Policy Institute 2006
Industry % Foreign-Born % Native- Born
Manufacturing 22% 14%
Retail Trade 8% 12%
Pro’s, Scientific, Management, Admin 12% 9%
Education, Heallth, Social Services 21% 23%
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation 13% 8%
TOTAL, TOP 5 76% 66%
MN Industries with Greatest Concentrations of Foreign-Born Workers (2006, >5000 Total ee’s)
• Mfg.- food/vegetable processing
• Mfg.- animal slaughtering & processing
• Prof. services to buildings & dwellings
• Retail - specialty foods
• Mfg.- medical equipment & supplies
• Mfg.- electro medical & control instruments
• Retail - used merchandise
MN Will See a 30% Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
7/05 to7/06
7/06 to7/07
7/07 to7/08
7/08 to7/09
7/09 to7/10
7/10 to7/11
7/11 to7/12
Year Turning Age 62
Wo
rke
d W
ith
in P
as
t 5
ye
ars
2005 ACS
MN Labor Force % Born in Another Country
3.3%
8.5%
12.6%
3.1%3.6%
4.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1990 2000 2006
25-34
55-64
PUMS microdata from 1990 & 2000 Census & 2006 ACS
Worker Shortage: What Do We Do?
• Automate
• Grow elsewhere
• Support in-migration
Entrepreneurs
• 3% of businesses immigrant owned– Hispanic-owned up 350% since ’90– Asian-Indian firms = 400, >4,000 employees
• $331 million in net income
• Downtown & neighborhood revitalization
Consumers
• Latinos: $4 b (up 694% since 1990)
• Asians: $4.9 b (up 524% since 1990)
• Growth in buying (’90-’08 national ranking)– 9th highest for Asians– 8th highest for Hispanics
• 6% of retail sales (2007)
Economic Stimulus
• Statewide immigrants leverage: – 24,000 jobs & – $1.2 billion personal income
• Native-born wages up, except those without high school diploma
• South Central MN: – 2,600 Latino wkrs sustain 3,770 N-Latino jobs– Include Latino consumption, add 4,100 more
Illegal Immigrants…No Definitive Data
• 60,000 – 80,000 undocumented
• Approx cost: $176-$188 m per year:– $146-158 m – K12 education– $17 m – public assistance health care– $13 m – incarceration
• Cost varies greatly by community
• Immediate cost < long term benefit
MN’s Economic Realty…2030
• Population ages dramatically
• Labor force growth declines
• New enterprises critical to growth
• New Americans key to MN growth
MN’s Immigrant Opportunity: Who Can Help?
• U.S. Congress
• Education: Higher Ed, Workforce Dev
• Employers
• State Legislature & Governor?
QUESTIONS?COMMENTS?
The Boom Generation Starts Turning 65 in 2011
65+ Passes School Age Around 2020
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
18-24
65+
5-17
Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007
Competition for the Future Workforce Will Increase
6.8%
4.5%
-1.6%-2.2%
13.0%
-1.2%
-3.5% -3.0%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
18-2
4 US
Mn
Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007
MN’s ’06 Foreign Born Workforce Was 240,000 or 8% of the Total Workforce
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
Less Than HighSchool
High School
Some College
Bachelor's Degree
Advanced Degree
2006 ACS
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