improving the spatial thickness distribution of modelled arctic sea ice
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Improving the Spatial Thickness Distribution of Modelled Arctic Sea Ice
Paul Miller, Seymour Laxon, Daniel FelthamCentre for Polar Observation and Modelling
University College London
UK Sea Ice Meeting, 8-9th Sept 2005
Motivation• Rothrock et al., (2003)
showed Arctic sea ice thickness as predicted by various models
• Significant differences, both in the mean and anomaly of ice thickness during the last 50 years
• Causes of differences not well understood, but there is both parameter and forcing uncertainty
• How can we reduce this uncertainty and increase our confidence in conjectures based on model output?
Reducing Parameter Uncertainty in Sea Ice Models
• Use one of the best available sea ice models (CICE) and force it with the best available fields (ERA-40 & POLES)
• Optimise and validate the model using a comprehensive range of sea ice observations:– Sea ice velocity, 1994-2001 (SSM/I
+ buoy + AVHRR, Fowler, 2003, NSIDC)
– Sea ice extent, 1994-2001 (SSM/I, NSIDC)
– Sea ice thickness, 1993-2001 (ERS radar altimeter, Laxon et al., 2003)
We used this model and forcing to reduce uncertainty surrounding sea ice model parameters
Parameter Space
Ice strength, P*
Albedo, ice
Air drag coefficient, Cair
• Our parameter space has three dimensions
• Uncertainty surrounds correct values to use
• Space includes commonly-used values
• 168 model runs needed to optimise model
0.62
0.54
2.5 (kPa)100
0.0003
0.0016
We explored the model’s multi-dimensional parameter space to find the ‘best’ fit to the observational data
Arctic Basin Ice Thickness(<81.5oN)
{ice, Cair, P*} = {0.56, 0.0006, 5 kPa}
Miller et al 2005a
Validation Using ULS Data from Submarine Cruises
• We consider data from 9 submarine cruises between 1987 and 1997
• Rothrock et al. (2003) used this data to test their coupled ice-ocean model
• Modelled cruise means of ice draft are in good agreement with ULS observations
R = 0.98RMS difference = 0.28m
Rothrock et al., 2003, JGR, 108(C3), 3083
Spatial Draft Discrepancy
Rothrock et al., 2003, JGR, 108(C3), 3083 Optimised CICE Model
Sea Ice Rheology
• CICE sea ice rheology is plastic
• CICE has an elliptical yield curve, with ratio of major to minor axes, e (Hibler, 1979)
• Maximum shear strength determined by P*, thickness, concentration and e
• Decreasing e reduces ice thickness in the western Arctic and increases it near the Pole
2
1
e=2
e=√.5
C
S
S
P/2
Spatial Draft Discrepancy
e=2 e=√.5
Improvements Due to Increased Shear Strength
Improved Zonal Averages
Improved Cruise Averagese = 2 e = √.5
Model vs ERS Mean Winter Ice Thickness (<81.5oN)
Model-Satellite Thickness (m)
e = 2 e = √.5
Truncated Yield Curve2
1
e=2
e=√.5
S
Truncated Yield Curve2
1
e=2
e=√.5
S
Truncated
Truncated Yield Curve2
1
e=2
e=√.5
S
Truncated < 80% IceConcentration
Arctic Basin Ice Thickness Since 1980
e = 2e = √.5
e = √.5(Truncated for IC < 80%)
Conclusions
• Initial work reduced parameter uncertainty in a stand-alone sea ice model
• Observations of thickness/draft from submarine cruises were used to independently test the optimised model
• By increasing the shear strength (by changing e from 2 to .5), we reproduced the observed spatial distribution of ice draft
• Found that some tensile strength is necessary
• These results are in press, Miller et al 2005b
Paul Miller, Seymour Laxon, Daniel FelthamCentre for Polar Observation and Modelling, UCL
Slide 5
Melt Season LengthIce ConcentrationIce Motion
•Extend observational validation back to mid-1980’s using intermittent submarine data•Use optimised model to examine changes in radiative, thermal, and mechanical forcing to determine primary mechanisms in ice mass change from 1948 - present
ERS-derived Mean Winter Ice Thickness
Model-Observed Thickness (m)
e = 2 e = √.5
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