incorporating a global perspective into future-oriented
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DOI 104018IJAEIS2019010102
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
Copyrightcopy2019IGIGlobalCopyingordistributinginprintorelectronicformswithoutwrittenpermissionofIGIGlobalisprohibited
21
Incorporating a Global Perspective Into Future-Oriented Forest Management ScenariosThe Role of Forest Footprint AnalysisPanagiotis P Koulelis University of Oxford School of Geography and the Environment Environmental Change Institute Oxford UK
Constance L McDermott University of Oxford School of Geography and the Environment Environmental Change Institute Oxford UK
ABSTRACT
Thisresearchservestointegratetheconceptofanldquoecologicalfootprintrdquointofuture-orientedforestmanagementscenariosScenariosarecommonlyusedtoexplorestakeholderperceptionsofpossibleforestfuturesandaretypicallyfocusedonthelocalimpactsofdifferentmanagementchoicesThisarticleillustrateshowglobalfootprintanalysiscanbeincorporatedintoscenariostoenablelocalforeststakeholdersintheEUtoconsidertheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsatnationalandgloballevelsThisillustrationcouldbehelpfultotheconstructionofaforestdecisionsupportsystemthatincludeswoodtradeinformationandsocialprocesses(simulationofmanagementdecisionsunderchangingpoliticaleconomicconditions)Itfindsthatdifferentfutureforestmanagementscenariosinvolvingapotentialincreaseordecreaseoftheharvestedtimberorpotentialincreaseordecreaseof subsidies for forestprotection combinedwithvariouspossible changes in local consumptionpatternsmighthaveimpactonbothldquointernalrdquo(local)andldquoexternalrdquo(non-local)forestfootprints
KEywORdSDecision Support Forest Footprint Forest Management Scenarios INTEGRAL Project Sustainability
INTROdUCTION
Ithasbeenestimated thatby theyear2007humanitywasconsuming15 times the resources thattheearthhadproducedinasingleyear(Ewingetal2010)ModerateUNscenariosinvolvinglowpopulationgrowthandsmallimprovementsindietsuggestthatby2050wewillrequiretwoEarthstosupportusoverthelongterm(Ibid)InternationaltradeisplayinganincreasingroleintheriseofglobalconsumptionIngeneralascountriesgaininwealththeydecreasetheirrelativerelianceondomesticresourceextractionwhileincreasingtheiroverallconsumptionandrelianceonforeignimports
TheconceptofagloballdquofootprintrdquohashelpedtomeasureandquantifythisshifttowardsexportdependencebytranslatingallconsumptionintostandardizedglobalunitsForexampleWiedmannetal(2013)defineldquomaterialfootprintsrdquo(MF)1intermsoftheglobalallocationofrawmaterials
ThisarticleoriginallypublishedunderIGIGlobalrsquoscopyrightonJanuary12019willproceedwithpublicationasanOpenAccessarticlestartingonFebruary42021inthegoldOpenAccessjournalInternationalJournalofAgriculturalandEnvironmentalInformationSystems
(convertedtogoldOpenAccessJanuary12021)andwillbedistributedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttributionLicense(httpcreativecommonsorglicensesby40)whichpermitsunrestrictedusedistributionandproductioninanymediumprovidedthe
authoroftheoriginalworkandoriginalpublicationsourceareproperlycredited
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
22
extractedtoproduceendproductsTheyfindthatwithevery10increaseingrossdomesticproducttheaveragenationalMFincreasesby6(Wiedmannetal2013)
GiventheglobalnatureofproductionandconsumptionldquosustainablerdquolanduseplanningrequiresconsiderationofglobalfootprintssincedecisionstoproduceorconsumelocallyservetoreducereplaceordisplaceimpactselsewhereArea-basedmeasuresofglobalfootprintprovideperhapsthemostintuitivemethodtolinkthefootprintconceptwithlocallanduseTheseincludeconceptssuchasldquoecologicalfootprintsrdquoandldquoforestfootprintsrdquothattranslateconsumptionintostandardizedunitsknownasldquoglobalhectaresrdquoTheldquoecologicalfootprintrdquomeasureshumanappropriationofecosystemproductsandservicesintermsoftheamountofbioproductivelandandseaareaneededtosupplytheseservices(WackernagelampRees1996)Sixlandusetypesareconsideredinthiscalculationcroplandgrazinglandfishinggroundforestlandbuilt-uplandandcarbonuptakeland2(Ewingetal2010)Table1outlinestheWackernagelandReesformulaforcalculatingfootprints(WackernagelampRees1996Wackernageletal2004Nieetal2010)ThedegreetowhichfootprintsaresustainabledependsinpartontheoverallcapacityofthelandtosupportthemWackernagelampRees(1996)havecoinedthetermldquobiocapacityrdquotorefertothebiospherersquosabilitytomeetthehumandemandformaterialconsumptionandwastedisposal
TheabovedetailsonglobalecologicalfootprintshighlightthecurrentexcessandinequalityofglobalconsumptionaswellastheincreasingrelianceoninternationaltradeTherelationshipbetweentheseoverallpatternsandforestshoweverisquitecomplexCurrentlytheleadingglobaldriverofforestlossistheexpansionofcommercialagricultureintropicalcountriesandEUconsumptionplaysasignificantroleinsupportingthisexpansion(Cuypersetal2013)InthisregarditistheEUrsquosproductionandconsumptionofagriculturalproductsandtoalesserextentbiofuelsthatexertsthegreatestimpactonglobalforestsWesuggestthatparticipatoryforestlanduseplanningcanserveasonevenueforgeneratingdiscussionamongforeststakeholdersaboutthesecross-sectorallinkagesandhowEUcountriesandcommunitiesmightbestaddressit
Ofmoredirectrelevancetotheforestsectortradeinwoodproductsplaysasignificantroleinglobalforestdegradation(Cuypersetal2013)Foresttradecanalsobecomparedrelativelyeasilywith
Table 1 The footprint equation
EFR P I E
Yi i i i
i
=+ minus( )Σ
where
bullEF (Ecological Footprint)Ameasureofhowmuchareainglobalhectares(gha)ofbiologicallyproductivelandandwateranindividualpopulationoractivityrequirestoproducealltheresourcesitconsumesandtoabsorbthewasteitgeneratesusingprevailingtechnologyandresourcemanagementpractices(measuredinglobalhectares)(globalhectareaproductivityweightedareausedtoreportboththebiocapacityoftheearthandthedemandonbiocapacity(theEcologicalFootprint)
bullYi (Yield Factor in tonnesha)Afactorthataccountsfordifferencesbetweencountriesinproductivityofagivenlandtype
bullPi +Ii-Ei (Consumption in tonnes of the wood products (i) category)Forthisstudyitusedtheapparentconsumptionwhichcalculatedasldquoproductionplusimports(Itincludesimportsforre-export)minusexports(Itincludesre-exports)asFAOdefines(FAO2010)
bullΣRj (Equivalence Factor in ghaha)Aproductivity-basedscalingfactorthatconvertsaspecificlandtype(suchascroplandorforest)intoauniversalunitofbiologicallyproductiveareajisoneofthesixspecifiedcategoriesofecologicalproductivelandegForforestlandandfortheyear2005is133(WWF2008)
Source (Global Footprint Network 2012)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
23
domesticforestproductionregardingitscontributiontoforestfootprintsHencewewillconcentrateourfootprintanalysisonwoodproductionandconsumption
ConsistentwiththislogicWackernagelampRees(1996)havedefinedforestfootprintsandforestbiocapacityintermsoftimberproductionconsumptionandtradeFromthisperspectivetheworldrsquostotalforestfootprintislessthanhalfofthebiocapacityofitsforestlands(GlobalFootprintNetwork2013)HoweverallthistellsusisthatthetotalquantityofforestproductsharvesteddoesnotexceedthemeanannualincrementiethegrowthoftheworldrsquoswoodsupplyIttellsusnothingaboutthequalityofthisfootprintThatisitdoesnrsquottellushowthewoodwasharvestedwhobenefitedfromitandwhattheimpactswereonlocalcommunitiesbiodiversityandotherecosystemservicesForestsareclearlyvaluedformorethantimbersowemakenoclaimsastotheldquosustainabilityrdquoofcurrentlevelsofforestproductconsumptionRatherweviewtheassessmentoffootprintsizeorquantityasanimportantfirststepinconsideringconsumptionwithinthecontextofplanetarynationalorecosystem-levelboundaries
ThemainfocusofthisstudyistoanalyzetheforestfootprintsandbiocapacitiesoftenEuropeancountries that were included as case studies in the EU-funded project lsquoINTEGRALrsquo a projectexploringfuture-orientedintegratedmanagementofEuropeanforestlandscapes3ThemajorityoftheINTEGRALprojectwasfocusedonthedevelopmentoffuture-orientedscenariosandpolicyback-casting for sustainable forest management within selected forest areas in each of the casestudycountriesThefootprintanalysisincludedinthispaperservestosituatetheselocally-orientedINTEGRALcasestudies intoglobalcontext Inparticular itexamineshowaglobalperspectivemightinfluencethedefinitionofwhatissustainablelocalforestpracticeSincetheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudieswerehighlydiverseaswellashighlyinterdependentthisanalysisalsodrawsontheINTEGRALcasestudyscenariostoexplorewaystoaddressthisinterdependenceForthisproposewoodtradeandfootprintinformationareillustratedinordertosupportdecisionmakinginfuturesustainableforestmanagementinEU
MATERIAL ANd METHOdS
ThispaperdrawsonthetencasestudyscenariosdevelopedaspartoftheINTEGRALprojectKeyfactorslikelsquoPolicieslawsandregulationsrsquolsquoForestownershipstructurersquolsquoTimbermarketsrsquolsquoBioenergymarketsrsquoandlsquoSubsidiesrsquoandtosomeextentlsquoNon-woodecosystemgoodsandservicesrsquoarelikelytobethemostinfluentialfactorsshapingfutureforestmanagementinEurope(Sotirovet al 2014) Based on these key factors forest stakeholders in twenty landscape case studyareasintenEUcountries4developedarangeoffuturescenarios(next25-30years)toexploretheimplications of different management priorities Scenarios are presented as ldquoGreen valuesrdquo inSwedenldquoRomanticnaturerdquointheNetherlandsrdquoandldquoEcologyrdquoinLithuaniaThelatterscenariosarepresentedasldquoProduction++rdquoinSwedenldquoliberalfuturerdquointheNetherlandsandldquoMaximumpotentialbenefitrdquoinBulgaria
Thispaperexaminestheimplicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsusingquantitativemethodstocollectorganizeinterpretandpresentdataThedataaboutconsumptionofwoodproductswerereceivedfromFAOSTAT(2014)databaseandtheprimarydataforthefootprintfigureswerereceivedfromtheGlobalFootprintNetwork(2013)WethenpresentacasestudyfromtheNetherlands(South-EastVeluwe)todiagrammaticallyandquantitativelyillustratetherelationshipbetweendifferentstakeholderscenariosandglobalforestfootprints
ResultsThe Quantity of EU Production Trade and ConsumptionEuropeisamajorproducerandtraderofforestproductsOverhalfofEuropersquosforestsaredesignatedforproductionndashamuchhigherpercentagethantheglobalaverageof32percent(FAO2006)The
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24
regionaccountedforalmostone-thirdofglobalproductionin2006andnearlyhalfoftheworldrsquostradeinforestproductswithimportsofUS$158billionandexportsofUS$184billion(FAO2006)Figure1andFigure2presentEU(28)forestproductsproductionexportsandimportswithinthecategoryForest products+ (FAOSTAT2014)Thegraphshighlight how theEUas awhole iscurrentlyproducingalargepercentageofthewoodproductsitconsumesbutisalsoanimportanttradingpartnerwithnon-EUcountries
IntotalEUproductionofproductsthatmeasuredincubicmeters(cum)(Figure1)includingroundwood sawnwoodveneerand fiberboard fluctuated from423millioncum in2009 to528millioncumin2007IncontrasttheimportsandexportsfluctuatedatlowerlevelsTheimportsrangedfrom128millionin2009to159millionin2006andtheexportsfrom113millionin2001to151millionin2007Productionmeasuredintonnes(Figure2)includingpulpandpaperproductsincreasedduringtheexaminedperiodTheproductionbegantoincreasefrom170milliontoalmost200millionin2007followedbyashortdecreasein2009(174million)andfinallyreachedtheamountof193millionin2012Parallelincreaseswereobservedinimportsandexportswithasmalldiparound20092008HowevertheriseinexportsofpulpandpaperproductshasbeengreaterthantheriseinimportsInregardtofutureprojectionstheEFSOS(EuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy)modelhighlightsageneraltaperingoffofgrowthinwoodproductsconsumptioninWesternEuropecombinedwithongoingdynamicgrowthinEasternEuropeanmarketsthrough2020asthesemarketscontinuetomature(KangasampBaudin2003)IntermsofnetEUEFTA5consumptionthegreatestincreasewillbeinpaperandpaperboardrisingtonearly122millionmetrictonnesin2020fromalmost77millionmetrictonnesin2000Theyreportedthatin2000theconsumptionofsawnwoodwasapproximately90millioncumandwillbeover106millioncumin2020Theconsumptionpercapitaofwood-basedpanelswillfollowthesametrendfrom44millioncumapproximatelyin2000toover63millioncumin2020Jonsson(2012)mentionedthataccordingtoEFSOSII(UNECEFAO2012)theaverageannualgrowthrateofconsumptioninEUEFTAcountriesusingA1scenario(afutureworldofveryrapideconomicgrowth)fortheperiod2020-2030wouldbe1forsawnwood2forpanelsand19forpaperandpaperboardAdditionallyusingtheB2scenario(moreemphasis
Figure 1 EU (28) forest products trade in cum (Chips and particles Hardboard Insulating Board MDF Other Indust Roundwd(C) Other Indust Roundwd(NC) Particle Board Plywood Sawlogs+Veneer Logs (C) Sawlogs+Veneer Logs (NC) Sawnwood (C) Sawnwood (NC) Veneer Sheets Wood Residues)
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25
isonlocalsolutionstoeconomicsocialandenvironmentalsustainability)theabovepercentagesare0509and09respectively
Buongiornoetal(2012)madeonemorelong-rangestudywithprojectionsobtainedwiththeGlobalForestProductsModelGFPM(Buongiornoetal2003updatedinBuongiornoampZhu2011)givinganoutlookfor2030and2060fortheworldforestandforestindustriesunderdifferentscenariosThosescenariosconcernedthefutureofpopulationtheGDPgrowththeenergyusethelandusechangesandfinallytheresourceavailabilityAccordingtotheScenarioB2(mediumfuturechangesoftheabove)itcouldbecalculatedthatthesawnwoodconsumptionofEU(25)willremainatthelevelsof100millioncumin2030andadecreaseatapproximately95millioncumwilltakeplacein2060Inadditiontheestimationofthesumofconsumptionofnewsprintprintingandwritingpaperandotherpaper+paperboard(sameasthepaperandpaperboardreportedbyKangasampBaudin2003)asatotalwillreachtheamountofapproximately100millionmetrictonnesin2030and114milliontonnesin2060TheEU(25)alsoexpectedtokeepthelevelsofwood-basedpanels(plywoodparticleboardandfibreboard)consumptionatalmost62millioncumin2030andapproximately60millioncumin2060SimilartrendsarereportedinotherstudieswithlongtermprojectionsfortheforestsectorsuchasthesuccessorEFSOSII(UNECEFAO2012)FAOGlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(Zhuetal1998)andETTSV(BaudinampBrooks1995)TheEUEFTAisalsoexpectedtoincreaseitsproductionandexportsacrosstheseproductgroupsInotherwordsemergingeconomieswillplayanincreasingroleinbothforestproductproductionandconsumptionInsumfromtheperspectiveofglobalfootprintssustainableforestproductionandconsumptionhasbecomeanincreasinglyinternationalquestion
The Total Footprint Calculation for Forest ProductsAccordingtotheGlobalFootprintNetwork(2013)theEUrsquospercapitaforestecologicalfootprint(FEF)ismorethantwicethatofdevelopingcountriesandequalstheequivalentofroughly64ofitspercapitaforestbiocapacityHoweverasillustratedbyourcasestudycountriesthereisconsiderablevariationwithintheEUbothintermsoffootprintandforestbiocapacity(Figure3)Figure3highlightsmajorvariationintheinternalsurplusorovershootintheforestfootprintofEUcountriesrangingfrom
Figure 2 EU (28) forest products trade in tonnes (Dissolving Wood Pulp Mechanical Wood Pulp Newsprint Other Fibre Pulp Other Paper+Paperboard Printing+Writing Paper Recovered Paper Wood Pellets Wood Charcoal Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp)
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26
theNetherlandswhoseforestfootprintisover700ofitsforestbiocapacitytocountrieslikeFinlandandSwedenwhoconsumeronlyasmallfractionoftheirforestbiocapacityIfontheotherhandonecomparescountriesrsquoforestfootprintspercapitawithglobalaveragebiocapacitypercapitathentheresultslookquitedifferentFigure4presentstheseresultsforthecasestudycountriesInthiscaseLithuaniaandSwedenleadwiththehighestpercapitaforestfootprintsinabsolutetermsPerhapsthemostimportantmessagetotakefromFigure3and4togetheristheneedtoconsiderbothlocalandglobalcontextswhenassessingforestsectorimpactsThesustainabilityofacountryrsquosconsumptionlevelsdependsonmanyfactorsincludingtheenvironmentalandsocialcostsandbenefitsoflocal
Figure 3 Forest footprint per capita as percent of a countryrsquos per capita forest biocapacity (the line highlights the 100 threshold) Source Global Footprint Network 2013 National Footprint Accounts 2011 Edition
Figure 4 Forest footprint per capita for INTEGRAL case study countries compared to global average (bottom line) and global biocapacity (top line) Source Global Footprint Network 2013 National Footprint Accounts 2011 Edition
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27
woodproductionversusothersubstitutableproductsForexampleitmayberelativelysustainableforacountrylikeSwedenthatisrichlyendowedwithforestresourcestoconsumemorewoodpercapitathanPortugal
AshighlightedinFigure3bellowthecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomesticovershootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedasimportanttotheemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHoweverintheselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)
The Quality of the EUrsquos Forest FootprintInthissectiontheinternationaldimensionsofforesttradearehighlightedinorderthatlocalstakeholdersmayconsiderforthemselveswhatqualityofinternalandexternalforestfootprintiscoherentwiththeirvaluesFurthermorethissectionfocusesonidentifyingsomekeyissuesrelatingtotheenvironmentalandsocialqualitiesoftradedwoodInparticularitconsidersthecountriesoforiginoftotalwoodproductsandbyproducttypeanddiscussestheimplicationsthisholdsforsustainabilityThisanalysisofimplicationsisfarfromexhaustivebutisintendedtoillustratehowstakeholdersmightadoptaglobalperspectiveontheenvironmentalandsocialissuesofimportancetothemincludingthosetheymayidentifyinfutureorientedscenario-buildingprocesses
Theassessmentofwhetherinternationallytradedwoodproductsareldquosustainablerdquoisclearlyacomplexendeavorandonethathasfueledagrowingbodyofresearch(egBuonocoreetal2014Mayeretal2006ForestTrends2013)Forestpracticesvaryconsiderablynotonlyamongcountriesandovertimebutwithineachcountryandamongdifferentproductsandsupplychains
Neverthelessa simpleanalysisof trade flows that identifiescountriesoforigincanhelp toidentifykeyrisksinthesupplychainItiswellknownforexamplethatforesttenureanduserightsareunresolvedordisputedacrossmuchofthedevelopingworldandhencewoodoriginatingfromtheseregionsmayhavebeenproducedinviolationoflocalrightsInternationaldemandfortimbercan further incentivize appropriation of forest resources from local communities leaving themwithoutaccesstoorbenefitfromlocalforestgoodsandservicesTheenvironmentalimpactsofforestproductionandharvestalsovariesconsiderablyamongdevelopedaswellasdevelopingcountrieseg(McDermottetal2010)
Origins (Trade Flows) of Forest Products Across All CategoriesWith the enlargement of the EU in 2004 and 2007 illegal logging has become a problem forinternationaltradewithintheEUparticularlyaffectingsomeofthenewMemberStatesThemarketshareofthisintra-EUtradefromsuspicioussourceshasbeenestimatedatsomewherebetween6and8(WWF2008)
InregardtotheEUtradeofwoodproductswiththerestoftheworldanestimated82ofthevalueofthistrade(includingfurniture)comesfromcountrieswithldquohighriskrdquoofillegallogging(ForestTrends2013)ThispercentagevariesbyEUmemberstatereflectinginpartthecountryrsquosrelativerelianceonwoodproductimportsandtheirroleinintra-regionaltradeTheleadingimportersofhighriskwoodaretheUKGermanyFranceItalytheNetherlandsandBelgiumTheUKhas
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28
historically imported the largestestimatedquantitiesof illegal timberwhile theNetherlandshasservedasaleadingldquofirst-placerrdquoorconduitofillegaltimberdestinedforelsewhereintheEU(WWF2008)Acrossallofthesecountriesimportsofillegaltimberdroppedsignificantlyin2008dueinalargeparttotheglobalrecession(LawsonampMacFaul2010)ItispossiblethattheEUrsquoslegalityinitiativessuchastheEUTimberRegulationmaybehavingsomeeffectbutitistooearlytodrawconclusionsinthisregardFigure5presentsthecountriesoforiginofthesehigh-riskproductsandtheaveragevolumesofselectforestproductsimportedfromthesecountriesintotheEUovertheperiod2000-2013
ThebiggestportionofEU(27)importsofforestproducts(HS44)fortheperiod2000-2013 on average is from the former Soviet Union totaling 138 million cum The secondlargest region of origin is East Asia which provided 78 million cum average for the sameperiodThesearefollowedbySouthAmerica(35millioncum)therestofEurope(31millioncum)NorthAmerica(24millioncum)andSub-SaharanAfricaSouthEastAfricaandotherswithsmallerquantities
FortheaboveproductcategoriesRussiahasrecentlyemergedastheleadingsourceofillegalwoodimportedintotheEUThiswoodismostlyintheformofroundwoodbutalsoincludesprocessedproductsThemainimporterofRussiantimberamongtheEUcountriesisFinlandNearlyhalfofall(legalandillegal)EuropeantimberimportsfromRussiaarriveinFinlandmainlytobeprocessedintopulpandpaperandthenexportedtootherEUstates(WWF2008)
Figure 5 EU (27) forest products imports (average) and origin regions for the period 2000-2013 [USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 2014] Includes forest products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification This includes some secondary processed wood products (SPWP) such as builderrsquos joinery but does not include pulp and paper products (HS 47-49) or furniture (HS 94)
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29
TheothermajorldquohighriskrdquoregionsoforiginincludeEastandSouthEastAsiaSouthAmericaandAfricaTheseregionsarediscussedinthefollowingsectionsonldquotropicalwoodrdquoandldquosecondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)rdquo
Tropical WoodTropicalforestlossanddegradationhasbecomeanissueofmajorglobalconcern(egMcDermott2014)Timberharvestisnotthemajordirectdriverofthislosssinceharvestedareasaregenerallycapableofregrowthbutmarketsfortropicaltimbercanplayaroleinfinancingroad-buildingandotherinfrastructurethatinturnfacilitatesconversiontoagricultureorotherlanduses(egMeyfroidtetal2010GeistampLambin2002)AconsiderationoftropicaltimberimportstotheEUthereforeshedssomelightonwheretheEUcouldbeplayingeitherapositiveornegativeroleinpromotingsustainableforestryFigures6and7presenttheEUimportsoftropicalwoodintonnesandvalue
BasedonbothvolumeandvalueIndonesiaMalaysiaCameroonandGabonareallleadingsourcesoftropicalwoodproducts(HS44)fortheEUasawholeAllofthesecountriesareknowntofaceseriouschallengesingoverningforesttradealthoughestimatingtheprecisenatureandextentofthesechallengesisitselfverydifficultSurvey-basedestimatesofillegalloggingasapercentofproductionrangefrom40-61inIndonesia59-65inCameroonand14-25inMalaysia(LawsonampMcFaul2010)
IntotalprimaryprocessedtropicalwoodproductsrepresentonlyasmallportionoftheEUrsquostotalwoodtradeHowevertheimpactofthistradeonthehostcountriesdependsalsoontherelativeroletheEUplaysamonginternationalimporters(Figures8910)
TheleadingdestinationsofthetopprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromIndonesiaareJapanChinaandtheUSA(Figure8)
Figure 6 EU (28) tropical wood import weights (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014]
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30
Figure 8 Top five importers of primary wood products from Indonesia 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 7 EU (28) tropical wood import value (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014] Includes all tropical wood products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification
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31
ChinaistheleadimporterofprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromCameroon(Figure9)followedbyfourdifferentEUcountriesincludingtheINTEGRALcasestudycountriesofFranceItalyandtheNetherlands
TropicalwoodfromBrazil(Figure10)issourcedfromtheBrazilianAmazonthehistoricalleaderintropicalforestlossandaregionstillexperiencingmajorproblemswithillegalloggingandforestdegradation(egMatricardietal2013)ThecasestudyFranceisaleadingbuyeroftropicalplywoodfromBrazilwhiletheNetherlandsisthefourthlargestbuyerofBraziliantropicalsawnwood
InsumFigures8910revealmajorvariationintherelativeimportanceoftheEUasadirecttradingpartnerHoweveraswillbediscussedinthenextsectionasignificantportionofthetropicalwoodimportedintonon-EUcountriesmaybereprocessedandsoldbacktotheEUasSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)
Secondary Processed Wood Products (SPWP)Secondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)areforminganincreasinglylargepercentageofglobaltradereflectingthetrendindevelopedcountriestowardsimportinggoodsmanufacturedelsewhereand
Figure 9 Top five importers of primary wood products from Cameroon 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 10 Top 5 importers of primary wood products from Brazil 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
32
thusoutsourcingtheassociatedecologicalfootprint(egWiedmannetal2013)SPWPcoversawiderangeofmanufacturedgoodsincludingwoodenfurnitureandpartsbuilderrsquosjoineryandwoodwork(egwindowsdoorframesetc)woodencratesetcBy2020SPWPareexpectedtosurpasspulpandpaperastheleadingtradedproducttotalingsome40ofallinternationallytradedforestproductsbyvalue(ACPWP2007)ThelargestcategoryofSPWPisfurniturewhichwasvaluedgloballyatUS$450billionin2012(UNECE2013)Furnitureproductioninemergingmarketeconomiesisgrowingatarateof18peryearandChinaiscurrentlytheworldrsquoslargestfurnitureproducer[ibid]
ThemajorityoffurnitureconsumedintheEUisEuropean-madeandGermanyItalytheUKPolandandFrancearetheleadingproducers(ITTO2013)HowevertheEUhasasignificantglobalimpactasthelargestinternationalbuyeroffurniturefromChina(McDermottetal2009)andamajorimporterfromVietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaandotherdevelopingcountries(ITTO2013)
FinishedproductsndashandespeciallyrelativelycomplexproductassemblagessuchasfurniturendashmayhaveverycomplexsupplychainsForexampleasinglelivingroomcouchmaycontainmultiplepartsbothvisibleandhiddensourcedandmanufacturedwithinawiderangeofcountriesAllofthesefactorsmakeitchallengingtoconsiderboththequantityandthequalityoftheenvironmentalandsocialfootprint
NeverthelessexistingknowledgeofglobalsupplychainsisadequatetobegintoassesstherisksinvolvedinimportedSPWPForexampleresearchhasrevealedthatalargeportionofthefurnituremadeinChinaincludeswoodfromimportedfromregionsfacingmajorgovernancechallengessuchaseasternRussiaandSoutheastAsiaAccordingtoaglobalstudyofwoodtradefromsixpriorityecoregions worldwide China is the largest buyer of hardwood logs from four of these regionsincludingtheAmur(intheRussianFarEast)theCongoBasincentralBorneoandtheMekongregion(includingMyanmarCambodiaandLaos)andmanyoftheselogsareprocessedtoproducefurnituresoldtotheEUandUS(McDermottetal2009)(seeFigure11)
InsumthefootprintqualityoftheEUrsquosimportedSPWPisanissueofsignificantconcernAtthesametimerecentprojectionssuggestthequantityofthatfootprintisalsolikelytogrowaswillthepercentageofthatgrowthsuppliedbyemerginghighrisksources(ACPWP2007)
Case Study ContextsAshighlightedinFigure2abovethecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomestic
Figure 11 Top export pathways of tropical raw logs Grey top tropical log trade Black Top furniture trade Source (McDermott et al 2009)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
22
extractedtoproduceendproductsTheyfindthatwithevery10increaseingrossdomesticproducttheaveragenationalMFincreasesby6(Wiedmannetal2013)
GiventheglobalnatureofproductionandconsumptionldquosustainablerdquolanduseplanningrequiresconsiderationofglobalfootprintssincedecisionstoproduceorconsumelocallyservetoreducereplaceordisplaceimpactselsewhereArea-basedmeasuresofglobalfootprintprovideperhapsthemostintuitivemethodtolinkthefootprintconceptwithlocallanduseTheseincludeconceptssuchasldquoecologicalfootprintsrdquoandldquoforestfootprintsrdquothattranslateconsumptionintostandardizedunitsknownasldquoglobalhectaresrdquoTheldquoecologicalfootprintrdquomeasureshumanappropriationofecosystemproductsandservicesintermsoftheamountofbioproductivelandandseaareaneededtosupplytheseservices(WackernagelampRees1996)Sixlandusetypesareconsideredinthiscalculationcroplandgrazinglandfishinggroundforestlandbuilt-uplandandcarbonuptakeland2(Ewingetal2010)Table1outlinestheWackernagelandReesformulaforcalculatingfootprints(WackernagelampRees1996Wackernageletal2004Nieetal2010)ThedegreetowhichfootprintsaresustainabledependsinpartontheoverallcapacityofthelandtosupportthemWackernagelampRees(1996)havecoinedthetermldquobiocapacityrdquotorefertothebiospherersquosabilitytomeetthehumandemandformaterialconsumptionandwastedisposal
TheabovedetailsonglobalecologicalfootprintshighlightthecurrentexcessandinequalityofglobalconsumptionaswellastheincreasingrelianceoninternationaltradeTherelationshipbetweentheseoverallpatternsandforestshoweverisquitecomplexCurrentlytheleadingglobaldriverofforestlossistheexpansionofcommercialagricultureintropicalcountriesandEUconsumptionplaysasignificantroleinsupportingthisexpansion(Cuypersetal2013)InthisregarditistheEUrsquosproductionandconsumptionofagriculturalproductsandtoalesserextentbiofuelsthatexertsthegreatestimpactonglobalforestsWesuggestthatparticipatoryforestlanduseplanningcanserveasonevenueforgeneratingdiscussionamongforeststakeholdersaboutthesecross-sectorallinkagesandhowEUcountriesandcommunitiesmightbestaddressit
Ofmoredirectrelevancetotheforestsectortradeinwoodproductsplaysasignificantroleinglobalforestdegradation(Cuypersetal2013)Foresttradecanalsobecomparedrelativelyeasilywith
Table 1 The footprint equation
EFR P I E
Yi i i i
i
=+ minus( )Σ
where
bullEF (Ecological Footprint)Ameasureofhowmuchareainglobalhectares(gha)ofbiologicallyproductivelandandwateranindividualpopulationoractivityrequirestoproducealltheresourcesitconsumesandtoabsorbthewasteitgeneratesusingprevailingtechnologyandresourcemanagementpractices(measuredinglobalhectares)(globalhectareaproductivityweightedareausedtoreportboththebiocapacityoftheearthandthedemandonbiocapacity(theEcologicalFootprint)
bullYi (Yield Factor in tonnesha)Afactorthataccountsfordifferencesbetweencountriesinproductivityofagivenlandtype
bullPi +Ii-Ei (Consumption in tonnes of the wood products (i) category)Forthisstudyitusedtheapparentconsumptionwhichcalculatedasldquoproductionplusimports(Itincludesimportsforre-export)minusexports(Itincludesre-exports)asFAOdefines(FAO2010)
bullΣRj (Equivalence Factor in ghaha)Aproductivity-basedscalingfactorthatconvertsaspecificlandtype(suchascroplandorforest)intoauniversalunitofbiologicallyproductiveareajisoneofthesixspecifiedcategoriesofecologicalproductivelandegForforestlandandfortheyear2005is133(WWF2008)
Source (Global Footprint Network 2012)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
23
domesticforestproductionregardingitscontributiontoforestfootprintsHencewewillconcentrateourfootprintanalysisonwoodproductionandconsumption
ConsistentwiththislogicWackernagelampRees(1996)havedefinedforestfootprintsandforestbiocapacityintermsoftimberproductionconsumptionandtradeFromthisperspectivetheworldrsquostotalforestfootprintislessthanhalfofthebiocapacityofitsforestlands(GlobalFootprintNetwork2013)HoweverallthistellsusisthatthetotalquantityofforestproductsharvesteddoesnotexceedthemeanannualincrementiethegrowthoftheworldrsquoswoodsupplyIttellsusnothingaboutthequalityofthisfootprintThatisitdoesnrsquottellushowthewoodwasharvestedwhobenefitedfromitandwhattheimpactswereonlocalcommunitiesbiodiversityandotherecosystemservicesForestsareclearlyvaluedformorethantimbersowemakenoclaimsastotheldquosustainabilityrdquoofcurrentlevelsofforestproductconsumptionRatherweviewtheassessmentoffootprintsizeorquantityasanimportantfirststepinconsideringconsumptionwithinthecontextofplanetarynationalorecosystem-levelboundaries
ThemainfocusofthisstudyistoanalyzetheforestfootprintsandbiocapacitiesoftenEuropeancountries that were included as case studies in the EU-funded project lsquoINTEGRALrsquo a projectexploringfuture-orientedintegratedmanagementofEuropeanforestlandscapes3ThemajorityoftheINTEGRALprojectwasfocusedonthedevelopmentoffuture-orientedscenariosandpolicyback-casting for sustainable forest management within selected forest areas in each of the casestudycountriesThefootprintanalysisincludedinthispaperservestosituatetheselocally-orientedINTEGRALcasestudies intoglobalcontext Inparticular itexamineshowaglobalperspectivemightinfluencethedefinitionofwhatissustainablelocalforestpracticeSincetheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudieswerehighlydiverseaswellashighlyinterdependentthisanalysisalsodrawsontheINTEGRALcasestudyscenariostoexplorewaystoaddressthisinterdependenceForthisproposewoodtradeandfootprintinformationareillustratedinordertosupportdecisionmakinginfuturesustainableforestmanagementinEU
MATERIAL ANd METHOdS
ThispaperdrawsonthetencasestudyscenariosdevelopedaspartoftheINTEGRALprojectKeyfactorslikelsquoPolicieslawsandregulationsrsquolsquoForestownershipstructurersquolsquoTimbermarketsrsquolsquoBioenergymarketsrsquoandlsquoSubsidiesrsquoandtosomeextentlsquoNon-woodecosystemgoodsandservicesrsquoarelikelytobethemostinfluentialfactorsshapingfutureforestmanagementinEurope(Sotirovet al 2014) Based on these key factors forest stakeholders in twenty landscape case studyareasintenEUcountries4developedarangeoffuturescenarios(next25-30years)toexploretheimplications of different management priorities Scenarios are presented as ldquoGreen valuesrdquo inSwedenldquoRomanticnaturerdquointheNetherlandsrdquoandldquoEcologyrdquoinLithuaniaThelatterscenariosarepresentedasldquoProduction++rdquoinSwedenldquoliberalfuturerdquointheNetherlandsandldquoMaximumpotentialbenefitrdquoinBulgaria
Thispaperexaminestheimplicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsusingquantitativemethodstocollectorganizeinterpretandpresentdataThedataaboutconsumptionofwoodproductswerereceivedfromFAOSTAT(2014)databaseandtheprimarydataforthefootprintfigureswerereceivedfromtheGlobalFootprintNetwork(2013)WethenpresentacasestudyfromtheNetherlands(South-EastVeluwe)todiagrammaticallyandquantitativelyillustratetherelationshipbetweendifferentstakeholderscenariosandglobalforestfootprints
ResultsThe Quantity of EU Production Trade and ConsumptionEuropeisamajorproducerandtraderofforestproductsOverhalfofEuropersquosforestsaredesignatedforproductionndashamuchhigherpercentagethantheglobalaverageof32percent(FAO2006)The
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
24
regionaccountedforalmostone-thirdofglobalproductionin2006andnearlyhalfoftheworldrsquostradeinforestproductswithimportsofUS$158billionandexportsofUS$184billion(FAO2006)Figure1andFigure2presentEU(28)forestproductsproductionexportsandimportswithinthecategoryForest products+ (FAOSTAT2014)Thegraphshighlight how theEUas awhole iscurrentlyproducingalargepercentageofthewoodproductsitconsumesbutisalsoanimportanttradingpartnerwithnon-EUcountries
IntotalEUproductionofproductsthatmeasuredincubicmeters(cum)(Figure1)includingroundwood sawnwoodveneerand fiberboard fluctuated from423millioncum in2009 to528millioncumin2007IncontrasttheimportsandexportsfluctuatedatlowerlevelsTheimportsrangedfrom128millionin2009to159millionin2006andtheexportsfrom113millionin2001to151millionin2007Productionmeasuredintonnes(Figure2)includingpulpandpaperproductsincreasedduringtheexaminedperiodTheproductionbegantoincreasefrom170milliontoalmost200millionin2007followedbyashortdecreasein2009(174million)andfinallyreachedtheamountof193millionin2012Parallelincreaseswereobservedinimportsandexportswithasmalldiparound20092008HowevertheriseinexportsofpulpandpaperproductshasbeengreaterthantheriseinimportsInregardtofutureprojectionstheEFSOS(EuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy)modelhighlightsageneraltaperingoffofgrowthinwoodproductsconsumptioninWesternEuropecombinedwithongoingdynamicgrowthinEasternEuropeanmarketsthrough2020asthesemarketscontinuetomature(KangasampBaudin2003)IntermsofnetEUEFTA5consumptionthegreatestincreasewillbeinpaperandpaperboardrisingtonearly122millionmetrictonnesin2020fromalmost77millionmetrictonnesin2000Theyreportedthatin2000theconsumptionofsawnwoodwasapproximately90millioncumandwillbeover106millioncumin2020Theconsumptionpercapitaofwood-basedpanelswillfollowthesametrendfrom44millioncumapproximatelyin2000toover63millioncumin2020Jonsson(2012)mentionedthataccordingtoEFSOSII(UNECEFAO2012)theaverageannualgrowthrateofconsumptioninEUEFTAcountriesusingA1scenario(afutureworldofveryrapideconomicgrowth)fortheperiod2020-2030wouldbe1forsawnwood2forpanelsand19forpaperandpaperboardAdditionallyusingtheB2scenario(moreemphasis
Figure 1 EU (28) forest products trade in cum (Chips and particles Hardboard Insulating Board MDF Other Indust Roundwd(C) Other Indust Roundwd(NC) Particle Board Plywood Sawlogs+Veneer Logs (C) Sawlogs+Veneer Logs (NC) Sawnwood (C) Sawnwood (NC) Veneer Sheets Wood Residues)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
25
isonlocalsolutionstoeconomicsocialandenvironmentalsustainability)theabovepercentagesare0509and09respectively
Buongiornoetal(2012)madeonemorelong-rangestudywithprojectionsobtainedwiththeGlobalForestProductsModelGFPM(Buongiornoetal2003updatedinBuongiornoampZhu2011)givinganoutlookfor2030and2060fortheworldforestandforestindustriesunderdifferentscenariosThosescenariosconcernedthefutureofpopulationtheGDPgrowththeenergyusethelandusechangesandfinallytheresourceavailabilityAccordingtotheScenarioB2(mediumfuturechangesoftheabove)itcouldbecalculatedthatthesawnwoodconsumptionofEU(25)willremainatthelevelsof100millioncumin2030andadecreaseatapproximately95millioncumwilltakeplacein2060Inadditiontheestimationofthesumofconsumptionofnewsprintprintingandwritingpaperandotherpaper+paperboard(sameasthepaperandpaperboardreportedbyKangasampBaudin2003)asatotalwillreachtheamountofapproximately100millionmetrictonnesin2030and114milliontonnesin2060TheEU(25)alsoexpectedtokeepthelevelsofwood-basedpanels(plywoodparticleboardandfibreboard)consumptionatalmost62millioncumin2030andapproximately60millioncumin2060SimilartrendsarereportedinotherstudieswithlongtermprojectionsfortheforestsectorsuchasthesuccessorEFSOSII(UNECEFAO2012)FAOGlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(Zhuetal1998)andETTSV(BaudinampBrooks1995)TheEUEFTAisalsoexpectedtoincreaseitsproductionandexportsacrosstheseproductgroupsInotherwordsemergingeconomieswillplayanincreasingroleinbothforestproductproductionandconsumptionInsumfromtheperspectiveofglobalfootprintssustainableforestproductionandconsumptionhasbecomeanincreasinglyinternationalquestion
The Total Footprint Calculation for Forest ProductsAccordingtotheGlobalFootprintNetwork(2013)theEUrsquospercapitaforestecologicalfootprint(FEF)ismorethantwicethatofdevelopingcountriesandequalstheequivalentofroughly64ofitspercapitaforestbiocapacityHoweverasillustratedbyourcasestudycountriesthereisconsiderablevariationwithintheEUbothintermsoffootprintandforestbiocapacity(Figure3)Figure3highlightsmajorvariationintheinternalsurplusorovershootintheforestfootprintofEUcountriesrangingfrom
Figure 2 EU (28) forest products trade in tonnes (Dissolving Wood Pulp Mechanical Wood Pulp Newsprint Other Fibre Pulp Other Paper+Paperboard Printing+Writing Paper Recovered Paper Wood Pellets Wood Charcoal Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp)
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26
theNetherlandswhoseforestfootprintisover700ofitsforestbiocapacitytocountrieslikeFinlandandSwedenwhoconsumeronlyasmallfractionoftheirforestbiocapacityIfontheotherhandonecomparescountriesrsquoforestfootprintspercapitawithglobalaveragebiocapacitypercapitathentheresultslookquitedifferentFigure4presentstheseresultsforthecasestudycountriesInthiscaseLithuaniaandSwedenleadwiththehighestpercapitaforestfootprintsinabsolutetermsPerhapsthemostimportantmessagetotakefromFigure3and4togetheristheneedtoconsiderbothlocalandglobalcontextswhenassessingforestsectorimpactsThesustainabilityofacountryrsquosconsumptionlevelsdependsonmanyfactorsincludingtheenvironmentalandsocialcostsandbenefitsoflocal
Figure 3 Forest footprint per capita as percent of a countryrsquos per capita forest biocapacity (the line highlights the 100 threshold) Source Global Footprint Network 2013 National Footprint Accounts 2011 Edition
Figure 4 Forest footprint per capita for INTEGRAL case study countries compared to global average (bottom line) and global biocapacity (top line) Source Global Footprint Network 2013 National Footprint Accounts 2011 Edition
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27
woodproductionversusothersubstitutableproductsForexampleitmayberelativelysustainableforacountrylikeSwedenthatisrichlyendowedwithforestresourcestoconsumemorewoodpercapitathanPortugal
AshighlightedinFigure3bellowthecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomesticovershootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedasimportanttotheemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHoweverintheselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)
The Quality of the EUrsquos Forest FootprintInthissectiontheinternationaldimensionsofforesttradearehighlightedinorderthatlocalstakeholdersmayconsiderforthemselveswhatqualityofinternalandexternalforestfootprintiscoherentwiththeirvaluesFurthermorethissectionfocusesonidentifyingsomekeyissuesrelatingtotheenvironmentalandsocialqualitiesoftradedwoodInparticularitconsidersthecountriesoforiginoftotalwoodproductsandbyproducttypeanddiscussestheimplicationsthisholdsforsustainabilityThisanalysisofimplicationsisfarfromexhaustivebutisintendedtoillustratehowstakeholdersmightadoptaglobalperspectiveontheenvironmentalandsocialissuesofimportancetothemincludingthosetheymayidentifyinfutureorientedscenario-buildingprocesses
Theassessmentofwhetherinternationallytradedwoodproductsareldquosustainablerdquoisclearlyacomplexendeavorandonethathasfueledagrowingbodyofresearch(egBuonocoreetal2014Mayeretal2006ForestTrends2013)Forestpracticesvaryconsiderablynotonlyamongcountriesandovertimebutwithineachcountryandamongdifferentproductsandsupplychains
Neverthelessa simpleanalysisof trade flows that identifiescountriesoforigincanhelp toidentifykeyrisksinthesupplychainItiswellknownforexamplethatforesttenureanduserightsareunresolvedordisputedacrossmuchofthedevelopingworldandhencewoodoriginatingfromtheseregionsmayhavebeenproducedinviolationoflocalrightsInternationaldemandfortimbercan further incentivize appropriation of forest resources from local communities leaving themwithoutaccesstoorbenefitfromlocalforestgoodsandservicesTheenvironmentalimpactsofforestproductionandharvestalsovariesconsiderablyamongdevelopedaswellasdevelopingcountrieseg(McDermottetal2010)
Origins (Trade Flows) of Forest Products Across All CategoriesWith the enlargement of the EU in 2004 and 2007 illegal logging has become a problem forinternationaltradewithintheEUparticularlyaffectingsomeofthenewMemberStatesThemarketshareofthisintra-EUtradefromsuspicioussourceshasbeenestimatedatsomewherebetween6and8(WWF2008)
InregardtotheEUtradeofwoodproductswiththerestoftheworldanestimated82ofthevalueofthistrade(includingfurniture)comesfromcountrieswithldquohighriskrdquoofillegallogging(ForestTrends2013)ThispercentagevariesbyEUmemberstatereflectinginpartthecountryrsquosrelativerelianceonwoodproductimportsandtheirroleinintra-regionaltradeTheleadingimportersofhighriskwoodaretheUKGermanyFranceItalytheNetherlandsandBelgiumTheUKhas
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28
historically imported the largestestimatedquantitiesof illegal timberwhile theNetherlandshasservedasaleadingldquofirst-placerrdquoorconduitofillegaltimberdestinedforelsewhereintheEU(WWF2008)Acrossallofthesecountriesimportsofillegaltimberdroppedsignificantlyin2008dueinalargeparttotheglobalrecession(LawsonampMacFaul2010)ItispossiblethattheEUrsquoslegalityinitiativessuchastheEUTimberRegulationmaybehavingsomeeffectbutitistooearlytodrawconclusionsinthisregardFigure5presentsthecountriesoforiginofthesehigh-riskproductsandtheaveragevolumesofselectforestproductsimportedfromthesecountriesintotheEUovertheperiod2000-2013
ThebiggestportionofEU(27)importsofforestproducts(HS44)fortheperiod2000-2013 on average is from the former Soviet Union totaling 138 million cum The secondlargest region of origin is East Asia which provided 78 million cum average for the sameperiodThesearefollowedbySouthAmerica(35millioncum)therestofEurope(31millioncum)NorthAmerica(24millioncum)andSub-SaharanAfricaSouthEastAfricaandotherswithsmallerquantities
FortheaboveproductcategoriesRussiahasrecentlyemergedastheleadingsourceofillegalwoodimportedintotheEUThiswoodismostlyintheformofroundwoodbutalsoincludesprocessedproductsThemainimporterofRussiantimberamongtheEUcountriesisFinlandNearlyhalfofall(legalandillegal)EuropeantimberimportsfromRussiaarriveinFinlandmainlytobeprocessedintopulpandpaperandthenexportedtootherEUstates(WWF2008)
Figure 5 EU (27) forest products imports (average) and origin regions for the period 2000-2013 [USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 2014] Includes forest products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification This includes some secondary processed wood products (SPWP) such as builderrsquos joinery but does not include pulp and paper products (HS 47-49) or furniture (HS 94)
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29
TheothermajorldquohighriskrdquoregionsoforiginincludeEastandSouthEastAsiaSouthAmericaandAfricaTheseregionsarediscussedinthefollowingsectionsonldquotropicalwoodrdquoandldquosecondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)rdquo
Tropical WoodTropicalforestlossanddegradationhasbecomeanissueofmajorglobalconcern(egMcDermott2014)Timberharvestisnotthemajordirectdriverofthislosssinceharvestedareasaregenerallycapableofregrowthbutmarketsfortropicaltimbercanplayaroleinfinancingroad-buildingandotherinfrastructurethatinturnfacilitatesconversiontoagricultureorotherlanduses(egMeyfroidtetal2010GeistampLambin2002)AconsiderationoftropicaltimberimportstotheEUthereforeshedssomelightonwheretheEUcouldbeplayingeitherapositiveornegativeroleinpromotingsustainableforestryFigures6and7presenttheEUimportsoftropicalwoodintonnesandvalue
BasedonbothvolumeandvalueIndonesiaMalaysiaCameroonandGabonareallleadingsourcesoftropicalwoodproducts(HS44)fortheEUasawholeAllofthesecountriesareknowntofaceseriouschallengesingoverningforesttradealthoughestimatingtheprecisenatureandextentofthesechallengesisitselfverydifficultSurvey-basedestimatesofillegalloggingasapercentofproductionrangefrom40-61inIndonesia59-65inCameroonand14-25inMalaysia(LawsonampMcFaul2010)
IntotalprimaryprocessedtropicalwoodproductsrepresentonlyasmallportionoftheEUrsquostotalwoodtradeHowevertheimpactofthistradeonthehostcountriesdependsalsoontherelativeroletheEUplaysamonginternationalimporters(Figures8910)
TheleadingdestinationsofthetopprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromIndonesiaareJapanChinaandtheUSA(Figure8)
Figure 6 EU (28) tropical wood import weights (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014]
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30
Figure 8 Top five importers of primary wood products from Indonesia 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 7 EU (28) tropical wood import value (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014] Includes all tropical wood products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification
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31
ChinaistheleadimporterofprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromCameroon(Figure9)followedbyfourdifferentEUcountriesincludingtheINTEGRALcasestudycountriesofFranceItalyandtheNetherlands
TropicalwoodfromBrazil(Figure10)issourcedfromtheBrazilianAmazonthehistoricalleaderintropicalforestlossandaregionstillexperiencingmajorproblemswithillegalloggingandforestdegradation(egMatricardietal2013)ThecasestudyFranceisaleadingbuyeroftropicalplywoodfromBrazilwhiletheNetherlandsisthefourthlargestbuyerofBraziliantropicalsawnwood
InsumFigures8910revealmajorvariationintherelativeimportanceoftheEUasadirecttradingpartnerHoweveraswillbediscussedinthenextsectionasignificantportionofthetropicalwoodimportedintonon-EUcountriesmaybereprocessedandsoldbacktotheEUasSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)
Secondary Processed Wood Products (SPWP)Secondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)areforminganincreasinglylargepercentageofglobaltradereflectingthetrendindevelopedcountriestowardsimportinggoodsmanufacturedelsewhereand
Figure 9 Top five importers of primary wood products from Cameroon 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 10 Top 5 importers of primary wood products from Brazil 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
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32
thusoutsourcingtheassociatedecologicalfootprint(egWiedmannetal2013)SPWPcoversawiderangeofmanufacturedgoodsincludingwoodenfurnitureandpartsbuilderrsquosjoineryandwoodwork(egwindowsdoorframesetc)woodencratesetcBy2020SPWPareexpectedtosurpasspulpandpaperastheleadingtradedproducttotalingsome40ofallinternationallytradedforestproductsbyvalue(ACPWP2007)ThelargestcategoryofSPWPisfurniturewhichwasvaluedgloballyatUS$450billionin2012(UNECE2013)Furnitureproductioninemergingmarketeconomiesisgrowingatarateof18peryearandChinaiscurrentlytheworldrsquoslargestfurnitureproducer[ibid]
ThemajorityoffurnitureconsumedintheEUisEuropean-madeandGermanyItalytheUKPolandandFrancearetheleadingproducers(ITTO2013)HowevertheEUhasasignificantglobalimpactasthelargestinternationalbuyeroffurniturefromChina(McDermottetal2009)andamajorimporterfromVietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaandotherdevelopingcountries(ITTO2013)
FinishedproductsndashandespeciallyrelativelycomplexproductassemblagessuchasfurniturendashmayhaveverycomplexsupplychainsForexampleasinglelivingroomcouchmaycontainmultiplepartsbothvisibleandhiddensourcedandmanufacturedwithinawiderangeofcountriesAllofthesefactorsmakeitchallengingtoconsiderboththequantityandthequalityoftheenvironmentalandsocialfootprint
NeverthelessexistingknowledgeofglobalsupplychainsisadequatetobegintoassesstherisksinvolvedinimportedSPWPForexampleresearchhasrevealedthatalargeportionofthefurnituremadeinChinaincludeswoodfromimportedfromregionsfacingmajorgovernancechallengessuchaseasternRussiaandSoutheastAsiaAccordingtoaglobalstudyofwoodtradefromsixpriorityecoregions worldwide China is the largest buyer of hardwood logs from four of these regionsincludingtheAmur(intheRussianFarEast)theCongoBasincentralBorneoandtheMekongregion(includingMyanmarCambodiaandLaos)andmanyoftheselogsareprocessedtoproducefurnituresoldtotheEUandUS(McDermottetal2009)(seeFigure11)
InsumthefootprintqualityoftheEUrsquosimportedSPWPisanissueofsignificantconcernAtthesametimerecentprojectionssuggestthequantityofthatfootprintisalsolikelytogrowaswillthepercentageofthatgrowthsuppliedbyemerginghighrisksources(ACPWP2007)
Case Study ContextsAshighlightedinFigure2abovethecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomestic
Figure 11 Top export pathways of tropical raw logs Grey top tropical log trade Black Top furniture trade Source (McDermott et al 2009)
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33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
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35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
23
domesticforestproductionregardingitscontributiontoforestfootprintsHencewewillconcentrateourfootprintanalysisonwoodproductionandconsumption
ConsistentwiththislogicWackernagelampRees(1996)havedefinedforestfootprintsandforestbiocapacityintermsoftimberproductionconsumptionandtradeFromthisperspectivetheworldrsquostotalforestfootprintislessthanhalfofthebiocapacityofitsforestlands(GlobalFootprintNetwork2013)HoweverallthistellsusisthatthetotalquantityofforestproductsharvesteddoesnotexceedthemeanannualincrementiethegrowthoftheworldrsquoswoodsupplyIttellsusnothingaboutthequalityofthisfootprintThatisitdoesnrsquottellushowthewoodwasharvestedwhobenefitedfromitandwhattheimpactswereonlocalcommunitiesbiodiversityandotherecosystemservicesForestsareclearlyvaluedformorethantimbersowemakenoclaimsastotheldquosustainabilityrdquoofcurrentlevelsofforestproductconsumptionRatherweviewtheassessmentoffootprintsizeorquantityasanimportantfirststepinconsideringconsumptionwithinthecontextofplanetarynationalorecosystem-levelboundaries
ThemainfocusofthisstudyistoanalyzetheforestfootprintsandbiocapacitiesoftenEuropeancountries that were included as case studies in the EU-funded project lsquoINTEGRALrsquo a projectexploringfuture-orientedintegratedmanagementofEuropeanforestlandscapes3ThemajorityoftheINTEGRALprojectwasfocusedonthedevelopmentoffuture-orientedscenariosandpolicyback-casting for sustainable forest management within selected forest areas in each of the casestudycountriesThefootprintanalysisincludedinthispaperservestosituatetheselocally-orientedINTEGRALcasestudies intoglobalcontext Inparticular itexamineshowaglobalperspectivemightinfluencethedefinitionofwhatissustainablelocalforestpracticeSincetheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudieswerehighlydiverseaswellashighlyinterdependentthisanalysisalsodrawsontheINTEGRALcasestudyscenariostoexplorewaystoaddressthisinterdependenceForthisproposewoodtradeandfootprintinformationareillustratedinordertosupportdecisionmakinginfuturesustainableforestmanagementinEU
MATERIAL ANd METHOdS
ThispaperdrawsonthetencasestudyscenariosdevelopedaspartoftheINTEGRALprojectKeyfactorslikelsquoPolicieslawsandregulationsrsquolsquoForestownershipstructurersquolsquoTimbermarketsrsquolsquoBioenergymarketsrsquoandlsquoSubsidiesrsquoandtosomeextentlsquoNon-woodecosystemgoodsandservicesrsquoarelikelytobethemostinfluentialfactorsshapingfutureforestmanagementinEurope(Sotirovet al 2014) Based on these key factors forest stakeholders in twenty landscape case studyareasintenEUcountries4developedarangeoffuturescenarios(next25-30years)toexploretheimplications of different management priorities Scenarios are presented as ldquoGreen valuesrdquo inSwedenldquoRomanticnaturerdquointheNetherlandsrdquoandldquoEcologyrdquoinLithuaniaThelatterscenariosarepresentedasldquoProduction++rdquoinSwedenldquoliberalfuturerdquointheNetherlandsandldquoMaximumpotentialbenefitrdquoinBulgaria
Thispaperexaminestheimplicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsusingquantitativemethodstocollectorganizeinterpretandpresentdataThedataaboutconsumptionofwoodproductswerereceivedfromFAOSTAT(2014)databaseandtheprimarydataforthefootprintfigureswerereceivedfromtheGlobalFootprintNetwork(2013)WethenpresentacasestudyfromtheNetherlands(South-EastVeluwe)todiagrammaticallyandquantitativelyillustratetherelationshipbetweendifferentstakeholderscenariosandglobalforestfootprints
ResultsThe Quantity of EU Production Trade and ConsumptionEuropeisamajorproducerandtraderofforestproductsOverhalfofEuropersquosforestsaredesignatedforproductionndashamuchhigherpercentagethantheglobalaverageof32percent(FAO2006)The
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24
regionaccountedforalmostone-thirdofglobalproductionin2006andnearlyhalfoftheworldrsquostradeinforestproductswithimportsofUS$158billionandexportsofUS$184billion(FAO2006)Figure1andFigure2presentEU(28)forestproductsproductionexportsandimportswithinthecategoryForest products+ (FAOSTAT2014)Thegraphshighlight how theEUas awhole iscurrentlyproducingalargepercentageofthewoodproductsitconsumesbutisalsoanimportanttradingpartnerwithnon-EUcountries
IntotalEUproductionofproductsthatmeasuredincubicmeters(cum)(Figure1)includingroundwood sawnwoodveneerand fiberboard fluctuated from423millioncum in2009 to528millioncumin2007IncontrasttheimportsandexportsfluctuatedatlowerlevelsTheimportsrangedfrom128millionin2009to159millionin2006andtheexportsfrom113millionin2001to151millionin2007Productionmeasuredintonnes(Figure2)includingpulpandpaperproductsincreasedduringtheexaminedperiodTheproductionbegantoincreasefrom170milliontoalmost200millionin2007followedbyashortdecreasein2009(174million)andfinallyreachedtheamountof193millionin2012Parallelincreaseswereobservedinimportsandexportswithasmalldiparound20092008HowevertheriseinexportsofpulpandpaperproductshasbeengreaterthantheriseinimportsInregardtofutureprojectionstheEFSOS(EuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy)modelhighlightsageneraltaperingoffofgrowthinwoodproductsconsumptioninWesternEuropecombinedwithongoingdynamicgrowthinEasternEuropeanmarketsthrough2020asthesemarketscontinuetomature(KangasampBaudin2003)IntermsofnetEUEFTA5consumptionthegreatestincreasewillbeinpaperandpaperboardrisingtonearly122millionmetrictonnesin2020fromalmost77millionmetrictonnesin2000Theyreportedthatin2000theconsumptionofsawnwoodwasapproximately90millioncumandwillbeover106millioncumin2020Theconsumptionpercapitaofwood-basedpanelswillfollowthesametrendfrom44millioncumapproximatelyin2000toover63millioncumin2020Jonsson(2012)mentionedthataccordingtoEFSOSII(UNECEFAO2012)theaverageannualgrowthrateofconsumptioninEUEFTAcountriesusingA1scenario(afutureworldofveryrapideconomicgrowth)fortheperiod2020-2030wouldbe1forsawnwood2forpanelsand19forpaperandpaperboardAdditionallyusingtheB2scenario(moreemphasis
Figure 1 EU (28) forest products trade in cum (Chips and particles Hardboard Insulating Board MDF Other Indust Roundwd(C) Other Indust Roundwd(NC) Particle Board Plywood Sawlogs+Veneer Logs (C) Sawlogs+Veneer Logs (NC) Sawnwood (C) Sawnwood (NC) Veneer Sheets Wood Residues)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
25
isonlocalsolutionstoeconomicsocialandenvironmentalsustainability)theabovepercentagesare0509and09respectively
Buongiornoetal(2012)madeonemorelong-rangestudywithprojectionsobtainedwiththeGlobalForestProductsModelGFPM(Buongiornoetal2003updatedinBuongiornoampZhu2011)givinganoutlookfor2030and2060fortheworldforestandforestindustriesunderdifferentscenariosThosescenariosconcernedthefutureofpopulationtheGDPgrowththeenergyusethelandusechangesandfinallytheresourceavailabilityAccordingtotheScenarioB2(mediumfuturechangesoftheabove)itcouldbecalculatedthatthesawnwoodconsumptionofEU(25)willremainatthelevelsof100millioncumin2030andadecreaseatapproximately95millioncumwilltakeplacein2060Inadditiontheestimationofthesumofconsumptionofnewsprintprintingandwritingpaperandotherpaper+paperboard(sameasthepaperandpaperboardreportedbyKangasampBaudin2003)asatotalwillreachtheamountofapproximately100millionmetrictonnesin2030and114milliontonnesin2060TheEU(25)alsoexpectedtokeepthelevelsofwood-basedpanels(plywoodparticleboardandfibreboard)consumptionatalmost62millioncumin2030andapproximately60millioncumin2060SimilartrendsarereportedinotherstudieswithlongtermprojectionsfortheforestsectorsuchasthesuccessorEFSOSII(UNECEFAO2012)FAOGlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(Zhuetal1998)andETTSV(BaudinampBrooks1995)TheEUEFTAisalsoexpectedtoincreaseitsproductionandexportsacrosstheseproductgroupsInotherwordsemergingeconomieswillplayanincreasingroleinbothforestproductproductionandconsumptionInsumfromtheperspectiveofglobalfootprintssustainableforestproductionandconsumptionhasbecomeanincreasinglyinternationalquestion
The Total Footprint Calculation for Forest ProductsAccordingtotheGlobalFootprintNetwork(2013)theEUrsquospercapitaforestecologicalfootprint(FEF)ismorethantwicethatofdevelopingcountriesandequalstheequivalentofroughly64ofitspercapitaforestbiocapacityHoweverasillustratedbyourcasestudycountriesthereisconsiderablevariationwithintheEUbothintermsoffootprintandforestbiocapacity(Figure3)Figure3highlightsmajorvariationintheinternalsurplusorovershootintheforestfootprintofEUcountriesrangingfrom
Figure 2 EU (28) forest products trade in tonnes (Dissolving Wood Pulp Mechanical Wood Pulp Newsprint Other Fibre Pulp Other Paper+Paperboard Printing+Writing Paper Recovered Paper Wood Pellets Wood Charcoal Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp)
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26
theNetherlandswhoseforestfootprintisover700ofitsforestbiocapacitytocountrieslikeFinlandandSwedenwhoconsumeronlyasmallfractionoftheirforestbiocapacityIfontheotherhandonecomparescountriesrsquoforestfootprintspercapitawithglobalaveragebiocapacitypercapitathentheresultslookquitedifferentFigure4presentstheseresultsforthecasestudycountriesInthiscaseLithuaniaandSwedenleadwiththehighestpercapitaforestfootprintsinabsolutetermsPerhapsthemostimportantmessagetotakefromFigure3and4togetheristheneedtoconsiderbothlocalandglobalcontextswhenassessingforestsectorimpactsThesustainabilityofacountryrsquosconsumptionlevelsdependsonmanyfactorsincludingtheenvironmentalandsocialcostsandbenefitsoflocal
Figure 3 Forest footprint per capita as percent of a countryrsquos per capita forest biocapacity (the line highlights the 100 threshold) Source Global Footprint Network 2013 National Footprint Accounts 2011 Edition
Figure 4 Forest footprint per capita for INTEGRAL case study countries compared to global average (bottom line) and global biocapacity (top line) Source Global Footprint Network 2013 National Footprint Accounts 2011 Edition
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
27
woodproductionversusothersubstitutableproductsForexampleitmayberelativelysustainableforacountrylikeSwedenthatisrichlyendowedwithforestresourcestoconsumemorewoodpercapitathanPortugal
AshighlightedinFigure3bellowthecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomesticovershootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedasimportanttotheemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHoweverintheselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)
The Quality of the EUrsquos Forest FootprintInthissectiontheinternationaldimensionsofforesttradearehighlightedinorderthatlocalstakeholdersmayconsiderforthemselveswhatqualityofinternalandexternalforestfootprintiscoherentwiththeirvaluesFurthermorethissectionfocusesonidentifyingsomekeyissuesrelatingtotheenvironmentalandsocialqualitiesoftradedwoodInparticularitconsidersthecountriesoforiginoftotalwoodproductsandbyproducttypeanddiscussestheimplicationsthisholdsforsustainabilityThisanalysisofimplicationsisfarfromexhaustivebutisintendedtoillustratehowstakeholdersmightadoptaglobalperspectiveontheenvironmentalandsocialissuesofimportancetothemincludingthosetheymayidentifyinfutureorientedscenario-buildingprocesses
Theassessmentofwhetherinternationallytradedwoodproductsareldquosustainablerdquoisclearlyacomplexendeavorandonethathasfueledagrowingbodyofresearch(egBuonocoreetal2014Mayeretal2006ForestTrends2013)Forestpracticesvaryconsiderablynotonlyamongcountriesandovertimebutwithineachcountryandamongdifferentproductsandsupplychains
Neverthelessa simpleanalysisof trade flows that identifiescountriesoforigincanhelp toidentifykeyrisksinthesupplychainItiswellknownforexamplethatforesttenureanduserightsareunresolvedordisputedacrossmuchofthedevelopingworldandhencewoodoriginatingfromtheseregionsmayhavebeenproducedinviolationoflocalrightsInternationaldemandfortimbercan further incentivize appropriation of forest resources from local communities leaving themwithoutaccesstoorbenefitfromlocalforestgoodsandservicesTheenvironmentalimpactsofforestproductionandharvestalsovariesconsiderablyamongdevelopedaswellasdevelopingcountrieseg(McDermottetal2010)
Origins (Trade Flows) of Forest Products Across All CategoriesWith the enlargement of the EU in 2004 and 2007 illegal logging has become a problem forinternationaltradewithintheEUparticularlyaffectingsomeofthenewMemberStatesThemarketshareofthisintra-EUtradefromsuspicioussourceshasbeenestimatedatsomewherebetween6and8(WWF2008)
InregardtotheEUtradeofwoodproductswiththerestoftheworldanestimated82ofthevalueofthistrade(includingfurniture)comesfromcountrieswithldquohighriskrdquoofillegallogging(ForestTrends2013)ThispercentagevariesbyEUmemberstatereflectinginpartthecountryrsquosrelativerelianceonwoodproductimportsandtheirroleinintra-regionaltradeTheleadingimportersofhighriskwoodaretheUKGermanyFranceItalytheNetherlandsandBelgiumTheUKhas
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
28
historically imported the largestestimatedquantitiesof illegal timberwhile theNetherlandshasservedasaleadingldquofirst-placerrdquoorconduitofillegaltimberdestinedforelsewhereintheEU(WWF2008)Acrossallofthesecountriesimportsofillegaltimberdroppedsignificantlyin2008dueinalargeparttotheglobalrecession(LawsonampMacFaul2010)ItispossiblethattheEUrsquoslegalityinitiativessuchastheEUTimberRegulationmaybehavingsomeeffectbutitistooearlytodrawconclusionsinthisregardFigure5presentsthecountriesoforiginofthesehigh-riskproductsandtheaveragevolumesofselectforestproductsimportedfromthesecountriesintotheEUovertheperiod2000-2013
ThebiggestportionofEU(27)importsofforestproducts(HS44)fortheperiod2000-2013 on average is from the former Soviet Union totaling 138 million cum The secondlargest region of origin is East Asia which provided 78 million cum average for the sameperiodThesearefollowedbySouthAmerica(35millioncum)therestofEurope(31millioncum)NorthAmerica(24millioncum)andSub-SaharanAfricaSouthEastAfricaandotherswithsmallerquantities
FortheaboveproductcategoriesRussiahasrecentlyemergedastheleadingsourceofillegalwoodimportedintotheEUThiswoodismostlyintheformofroundwoodbutalsoincludesprocessedproductsThemainimporterofRussiantimberamongtheEUcountriesisFinlandNearlyhalfofall(legalandillegal)EuropeantimberimportsfromRussiaarriveinFinlandmainlytobeprocessedintopulpandpaperandthenexportedtootherEUstates(WWF2008)
Figure 5 EU (27) forest products imports (average) and origin regions for the period 2000-2013 [USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 2014] Includes forest products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification This includes some secondary processed wood products (SPWP) such as builderrsquos joinery but does not include pulp and paper products (HS 47-49) or furniture (HS 94)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
29
TheothermajorldquohighriskrdquoregionsoforiginincludeEastandSouthEastAsiaSouthAmericaandAfricaTheseregionsarediscussedinthefollowingsectionsonldquotropicalwoodrdquoandldquosecondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)rdquo
Tropical WoodTropicalforestlossanddegradationhasbecomeanissueofmajorglobalconcern(egMcDermott2014)Timberharvestisnotthemajordirectdriverofthislosssinceharvestedareasaregenerallycapableofregrowthbutmarketsfortropicaltimbercanplayaroleinfinancingroad-buildingandotherinfrastructurethatinturnfacilitatesconversiontoagricultureorotherlanduses(egMeyfroidtetal2010GeistampLambin2002)AconsiderationoftropicaltimberimportstotheEUthereforeshedssomelightonwheretheEUcouldbeplayingeitherapositiveornegativeroleinpromotingsustainableforestryFigures6and7presenttheEUimportsoftropicalwoodintonnesandvalue
BasedonbothvolumeandvalueIndonesiaMalaysiaCameroonandGabonareallleadingsourcesoftropicalwoodproducts(HS44)fortheEUasawholeAllofthesecountriesareknowntofaceseriouschallengesingoverningforesttradealthoughestimatingtheprecisenatureandextentofthesechallengesisitselfverydifficultSurvey-basedestimatesofillegalloggingasapercentofproductionrangefrom40-61inIndonesia59-65inCameroonand14-25inMalaysia(LawsonampMcFaul2010)
IntotalprimaryprocessedtropicalwoodproductsrepresentonlyasmallportionoftheEUrsquostotalwoodtradeHowevertheimpactofthistradeonthehostcountriesdependsalsoontherelativeroletheEUplaysamonginternationalimporters(Figures8910)
TheleadingdestinationsofthetopprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromIndonesiaareJapanChinaandtheUSA(Figure8)
Figure 6 EU (28) tropical wood import weights (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014]
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
30
Figure 8 Top five importers of primary wood products from Indonesia 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 7 EU (28) tropical wood import value (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014] Includes all tropical wood products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
31
ChinaistheleadimporterofprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromCameroon(Figure9)followedbyfourdifferentEUcountriesincludingtheINTEGRALcasestudycountriesofFranceItalyandtheNetherlands
TropicalwoodfromBrazil(Figure10)issourcedfromtheBrazilianAmazonthehistoricalleaderintropicalforestlossandaregionstillexperiencingmajorproblemswithillegalloggingandforestdegradation(egMatricardietal2013)ThecasestudyFranceisaleadingbuyeroftropicalplywoodfromBrazilwhiletheNetherlandsisthefourthlargestbuyerofBraziliantropicalsawnwood
InsumFigures8910revealmajorvariationintherelativeimportanceoftheEUasadirecttradingpartnerHoweveraswillbediscussedinthenextsectionasignificantportionofthetropicalwoodimportedintonon-EUcountriesmaybereprocessedandsoldbacktotheEUasSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)
Secondary Processed Wood Products (SPWP)Secondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)areforminganincreasinglylargepercentageofglobaltradereflectingthetrendindevelopedcountriestowardsimportinggoodsmanufacturedelsewhereand
Figure 9 Top five importers of primary wood products from Cameroon 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 10 Top 5 importers of primary wood products from Brazil 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
32
thusoutsourcingtheassociatedecologicalfootprint(egWiedmannetal2013)SPWPcoversawiderangeofmanufacturedgoodsincludingwoodenfurnitureandpartsbuilderrsquosjoineryandwoodwork(egwindowsdoorframesetc)woodencratesetcBy2020SPWPareexpectedtosurpasspulpandpaperastheleadingtradedproducttotalingsome40ofallinternationallytradedforestproductsbyvalue(ACPWP2007)ThelargestcategoryofSPWPisfurniturewhichwasvaluedgloballyatUS$450billionin2012(UNECE2013)Furnitureproductioninemergingmarketeconomiesisgrowingatarateof18peryearandChinaiscurrentlytheworldrsquoslargestfurnitureproducer[ibid]
ThemajorityoffurnitureconsumedintheEUisEuropean-madeandGermanyItalytheUKPolandandFrancearetheleadingproducers(ITTO2013)HowevertheEUhasasignificantglobalimpactasthelargestinternationalbuyeroffurniturefromChina(McDermottetal2009)andamajorimporterfromVietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaandotherdevelopingcountries(ITTO2013)
FinishedproductsndashandespeciallyrelativelycomplexproductassemblagessuchasfurniturendashmayhaveverycomplexsupplychainsForexampleasinglelivingroomcouchmaycontainmultiplepartsbothvisibleandhiddensourcedandmanufacturedwithinawiderangeofcountriesAllofthesefactorsmakeitchallengingtoconsiderboththequantityandthequalityoftheenvironmentalandsocialfootprint
NeverthelessexistingknowledgeofglobalsupplychainsisadequatetobegintoassesstherisksinvolvedinimportedSPWPForexampleresearchhasrevealedthatalargeportionofthefurnituremadeinChinaincludeswoodfromimportedfromregionsfacingmajorgovernancechallengessuchaseasternRussiaandSoutheastAsiaAccordingtoaglobalstudyofwoodtradefromsixpriorityecoregions worldwide China is the largest buyer of hardwood logs from four of these regionsincludingtheAmur(intheRussianFarEast)theCongoBasincentralBorneoandtheMekongregion(includingMyanmarCambodiaandLaos)andmanyoftheselogsareprocessedtoproducefurnituresoldtotheEUandUS(McDermottetal2009)(seeFigure11)
InsumthefootprintqualityoftheEUrsquosimportedSPWPisanissueofsignificantconcernAtthesametimerecentprojectionssuggestthequantityofthatfootprintisalsolikelytogrowaswillthepercentageofthatgrowthsuppliedbyemerginghighrisksources(ACPWP2007)
Case Study ContextsAshighlightedinFigure2abovethecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomestic
Figure 11 Top export pathways of tropical raw logs Grey top tropical log trade Black Top furniture trade Source (McDermott et al 2009)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
24
regionaccountedforalmostone-thirdofglobalproductionin2006andnearlyhalfoftheworldrsquostradeinforestproductswithimportsofUS$158billionandexportsofUS$184billion(FAO2006)Figure1andFigure2presentEU(28)forestproductsproductionexportsandimportswithinthecategoryForest products+ (FAOSTAT2014)Thegraphshighlight how theEUas awhole iscurrentlyproducingalargepercentageofthewoodproductsitconsumesbutisalsoanimportanttradingpartnerwithnon-EUcountries
IntotalEUproductionofproductsthatmeasuredincubicmeters(cum)(Figure1)includingroundwood sawnwoodveneerand fiberboard fluctuated from423millioncum in2009 to528millioncumin2007IncontrasttheimportsandexportsfluctuatedatlowerlevelsTheimportsrangedfrom128millionin2009to159millionin2006andtheexportsfrom113millionin2001to151millionin2007Productionmeasuredintonnes(Figure2)includingpulpandpaperproductsincreasedduringtheexaminedperiodTheproductionbegantoincreasefrom170milliontoalmost200millionin2007followedbyashortdecreasein2009(174million)andfinallyreachedtheamountof193millionin2012Parallelincreaseswereobservedinimportsandexportswithasmalldiparound20092008HowevertheriseinexportsofpulpandpaperproductshasbeengreaterthantheriseinimportsInregardtofutureprojectionstheEFSOS(EuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy)modelhighlightsageneraltaperingoffofgrowthinwoodproductsconsumptioninWesternEuropecombinedwithongoingdynamicgrowthinEasternEuropeanmarketsthrough2020asthesemarketscontinuetomature(KangasampBaudin2003)IntermsofnetEUEFTA5consumptionthegreatestincreasewillbeinpaperandpaperboardrisingtonearly122millionmetrictonnesin2020fromalmost77millionmetrictonnesin2000Theyreportedthatin2000theconsumptionofsawnwoodwasapproximately90millioncumandwillbeover106millioncumin2020Theconsumptionpercapitaofwood-basedpanelswillfollowthesametrendfrom44millioncumapproximatelyin2000toover63millioncumin2020Jonsson(2012)mentionedthataccordingtoEFSOSII(UNECEFAO2012)theaverageannualgrowthrateofconsumptioninEUEFTAcountriesusingA1scenario(afutureworldofveryrapideconomicgrowth)fortheperiod2020-2030wouldbe1forsawnwood2forpanelsand19forpaperandpaperboardAdditionallyusingtheB2scenario(moreemphasis
Figure 1 EU (28) forest products trade in cum (Chips and particles Hardboard Insulating Board MDF Other Indust Roundwd(C) Other Indust Roundwd(NC) Particle Board Plywood Sawlogs+Veneer Logs (C) Sawlogs+Veneer Logs (NC) Sawnwood (C) Sawnwood (NC) Veneer Sheets Wood Residues)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
25
isonlocalsolutionstoeconomicsocialandenvironmentalsustainability)theabovepercentagesare0509and09respectively
Buongiornoetal(2012)madeonemorelong-rangestudywithprojectionsobtainedwiththeGlobalForestProductsModelGFPM(Buongiornoetal2003updatedinBuongiornoampZhu2011)givinganoutlookfor2030and2060fortheworldforestandforestindustriesunderdifferentscenariosThosescenariosconcernedthefutureofpopulationtheGDPgrowththeenergyusethelandusechangesandfinallytheresourceavailabilityAccordingtotheScenarioB2(mediumfuturechangesoftheabove)itcouldbecalculatedthatthesawnwoodconsumptionofEU(25)willremainatthelevelsof100millioncumin2030andadecreaseatapproximately95millioncumwilltakeplacein2060Inadditiontheestimationofthesumofconsumptionofnewsprintprintingandwritingpaperandotherpaper+paperboard(sameasthepaperandpaperboardreportedbyKangasampBaudin2003)asatotalwillreachtheamountofapproximately100millionmetrictonnesin2030and114milliontonnesin2060TheEU(25)alsoexpectedtokeepthelevelsofwood-basedpanels(plywoodparticleboardandfibreboard)consumptionatalmost62millioncumin2030andapproximately60millioncumin2060SimilartrendsarereportedinotherstudieswithlongtermprojectionsfortheforestsectorsuchasthesuccessorEFSOSII(UNECEFAO2012)FAOGlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(Zhuetal1998)andETTSV(BaudinampBrooks1995)TheEUEFTAisalsoexpectedtoincreaseitsproductionandexportsacrosstheseproductgroupsInotherwordsemergingeconomieswillplayanincreasingroleinbothforestproductproductionandconsumptionInsumfromtheperspectiveofglobalfootprintssustainableforestproductionandconsumptionhasbecomeanincreasinglyinternationalquestion
The Total Footprint Calculation for Forest ProductsAccordingtotheGlobalFootprintNetwork(2013)theEUrsquospercapitaforestecologicalfootprint(FEF)ismorethantwicethatofdevelopingcountriesandequalstheequivalentofroughly64ofitspercapitaforestbiocapacityHoweverasillustratedbyourcasestudycountriesthereisconsiderablevariationwithintheEUbothintermsoffootprintandforestbiocapacity(Figure3)Figure3highlightsmajorvariationintheinternalsurplusorovershootintheforestfootprintofEUcountriesrangingfrom
Figure 2 EU (28) forest products trade in tonnes (Dissolving Wood Pulp Mechanical Wood Pulp Newsprint Other Fibre Pulp Other Paper+Paperboard Printing+Writing Paper Recovered Paper Wood Pellets Wood Charcoal Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
26
theNetherlandswhoseforestfootprintisover700ofitsforestbiocapacitytocountrieslikeFinlandandSwedenwhoconsumeronlyasmallfractionoftheirforestbiocapacityIfontheotherhandonecomparescountriesrsquoforestfootprintspercapitawithglobalaveragebiocapacitypercapitathentheresultslookquitedifferentFigure4presentstheseresultsforthecasestudycountriesInthiscaseLithuaniaandSwedenleadwiththehighestpercapitaforestfootprintsinabsolutetermsPerhapsthemostimportantmessagetotakefromFigure3and4togetheristheneedtoconsiderbothlocalandglobalcontextswhenassessingforestsectorimpactsThesustainabilityofacountryrsquosconsumptionlevelsdependsonmanyfactorsincludingtheenvironmentalandsocialcostsandbenefitsoflocal
Figure 3 Forest footprint per capita as percent of a countryrsquos per capita forest biocapacity (the line highlights the 100 threshold) Source Global Footprint Network 2013 National Footprint Accounts 2011 Edition
Figure 4 Forest footprint per capita for INTEGRAL case study countries compared to global average (bottom line) and global biocapacity (top line) Source Global Footprint Network 2013 National Footprint Accounts 2011 Edition
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
27
woodproductionversusothersubstitutableproductsForexampleitmayberelativelysustainableforacountrylikeSwedenthatisrichlyendowedwithforestresourcestoconsumemorewoodpercapitathanPortugal
AshighlightedinFigure3bellowthecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomesticovershootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedasimportanttotheemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHoweverintheselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)
The Quality of the EUrsquos Forest FootprintInthissectiontheinternationaldimensionsofforesttradearehighlightedinorderthatlocalstakeholdersmayconsiderforthemselveswhatqualityofinternalandexternalforestfootprintiscoherentwiththeirvaluesFurthermorethissectionfocusesonidentifyingsomekeyissuesrelatingtotheenvironmentalandsocialqualitiesoftradedwoodInparticularitconsidersthecountriesoforiginoftotalwoodproductsandbyproducttypeanddiscussestheimplicationsthisholdsforsustainabilityThisanalysisofimplicationsisfarfromexhaustivebutisintendedtoillustratehowstakeholdersmightadoptaglobalperspectiveontheenvironmentalandsocialissuesofimportancetothemincludingthosetheymayidentifyinfutureorientedscenario-buildingprocesses
Theassessmentofwhetherinternationallytradedwoodproductsareldquosustainablerdquoisclearlyacomplexendeavorandonethathasfueledagrowingbodyofresearch(egBuonocoreetal2014Mayeretal2006ForestTrends2013)Forestpracticesvaryconsiderablynotonlyamongcountriesandovertimebutwithineachcountryandamongdifferentproductsandsupplychains
Neverthelessa simpleanalysisof trade flows that identifiescountriesoforigincanhelp toidentifykeyrisksinthesupplychainItiswellknownforexamplethatforesttenureanduserightsareunresolvedordisputedacrossmuchofthedevelopingworldandhencewoodoriginatingfromtheseregionsmayhavebeenproducedinviolationoflocalrightsInternationaldemandfortimbercan further incentivize appropriation of forest resources from local communities leaving themwithoutaccesstoorbenefitfromlocalforestgoodsandservicesTheenvironmentalimpactsofforestproductionandharvestalsovariesconsiderablyamongdevelopedaswellasdevelopingcountrieseg(McDermottetal2010)
Origins (Trade Flows) of Forest Products Across All CategoriesWith the enlargement of the EU in 2004 and 2007 illegal logging has become a problem forinternationaltradewithintheEUparticularlyaffectingsomeofthenewMemberStatesThemarketshareofthisintra-EUtradefromsuspicioussourceshasbeenestimatedatsomewherebetween6and8(WWF2008)
InregardtotheEUtradeofwoodproductswiththerestoftheworldanestimated82ofthevalueofthistrade(includingfurniture)comesfromcountrieswithldquohighriskrdquoofillegallogging(ForestTrends2013)ThispercentagevariesbyEUmemberstatereflectinginpartthecountryrsquosrelativerelianceonwoodproductimportsandtheirroleinintra-regionaltradeTheleadingimportersofhighriskwoodaretheUKGermanyFranceItalytheNetherlandsandBelgiumTheUKhas
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
28
historically imported the largestestimatedquantitiesof illegal timberwhile theNetherlandshasservedasaleadingldquofirst-placerrdquoorconduitofillegaltimberdestinedforelsewhereintheEU(WWF2008)Acrossallofthesecountriesimportsofillegaltimberdroppedsignificantlyin2008dueinalargeparttotheglobalrecession(LawsonampMacFaul2010)ItispossiblethattheEUrsquoslegalityinitiativessuchastheEUTimberRegulationmaybehavingsomeeffectbutitistooearlytodrawconclusionsinthisregardFigure5presentsthecountriesoforiginofthesehigh-riskproductsandtheaveragevolumesofselectforestproductsimportedfromthesecountriesintotheEUovertheperiod2000-2013
ThebiggestportionofEU(27)importsofforestproducts(HS44)fortheperiod2000-2013 on average is from the former Soviet Union totaling 138 million cum The secondlargest region of origin is East Asia which provided 78 million cum average for the sameperiodThesearefollowedbySouthAmerica(35millioncum)therestofEurope(31millioncum)NorthAmerica(24millioncum)andSub-SaharanAfricaSouthEastAfricaandotherswithsmallerquantities
FortheaboveproductcategoriesRussiahasrecentlyemergedastheleadingsourceofillegalwoodimportedintotheEUThiswoodismostlyintheformofroundwoodbutalsoincludesprocessedproductsThemainimporterofRussiantimberamongtheEUcountriesisFinlandNearlyhalfofall(legalandillegal)EuropeantimberimportsfromRussiaarriveinFinlandmainlytobeprocessedintopulpandpaperandthenexportedtootherEUstates(WWF2008)
Figure 5 EU (27) forest products imports (average) and origin regions for the period 2000-2013 [USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 2014] Includes forest products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification This includes some secondary processed wood products (SPWP) such as builderrsquos joinery but does not include pulp and paper products (HS 47-49) or furniture (HS 94)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
29
TheothermajorldquohighriskrdquoregionsoforiginincludeEastandSouthEastAsiaSouthAmericaandAfricaTheseregionsarediscussedinthefollowingsectionsonldquotropicalwoodrdquoandldquosecondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)rdquo
Tropical WoodTropicalforestlossanddegradationhasbecomeanissueofmajorglobalconcern(egMcDermott2014)Timberharvestisnotthemajordirectdriverofthislosssinceharvestedareasaregenerallycapableofregrowthbutmarketsfortropicaltimbercanplayaroleinfinancingroad-buildingandotherinfrastructurethatinturnfacilitatesconversiontoagricultureorotherlanduses(egMeyfroidtetal2010GeistampLambin2002)AconsiderationoftropicaltimberimportstotheEUthereforeshedssomelightonwheretheEUcouldbeplayingeitherapositiveornegativeroleinpromotingsustainableforestryFigures6and7presenttheEUimportsoftropicalwoodintonnesandvalue
BasedonbothvolumeandvalueIndonesiaMalaysiaCameroonandGabonareallleadingsourcesoftropicalwoodproducts(HS44)fortheEUasawholeAllofthesecountriesareknowntofaceseriouschallengesingoverningforesttradealthoughestimatingtheprecisenatureandextentofthesechallengesisitselfverydifficultSurvey-basedestimatesofillegalloggingasapercentofproductionrangefrom40-61inIndonesia59-65inCameroonand14-25inMalaysia(LawsonampMcFaul2010)
IntotalprimaryprocessedtropicalwoodproductsrepresentonlyasmallportionoftheEUrsquostotalwoodtradeHowevertheimpactofthistradeonthehostcountriesdependsalsoontherelativeroletheEUplaysamonginternationalimporters(Figures8910)
TheleadingdestinationsofthetopprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromIndonesiaareJapanChinaandtheUSA(Figure8)
Figure 6 EU (28) tropical wood import weights (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014]
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30
Figure 8 Top five importers of primary wood products from Indonesia 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 7 EU (28) tropical wood import value (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014] Includes all tropical wood products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification
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31
ChinaistheleadimporterofprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromCameroon(Figure9)followedbyfourdifferentEUcountriesincludingtheINTEGRALcasestudycountriesofFranceItalyandtheNetherlands
TropicalwoodfromBrazil(Figure10)issourcedfromtheBrazilianAmazonthehistoricalleaderintropicalforestlossandaregionstillexperiencingmajorproblemswithillegalloggingandforestdegradation(egMatricardietal2013)ThecasestudyFranceisaleadingbuyeroftropicalplywoodfromBrazilwhiletheNetherlandsisthefourthlargestbuyerofBraziliantropicalsawnwood
InsumFigures8910revealmajorvariationintherelativeimportanceoftheEUasadirecttradingpartnerHoweveraswillbediscussedinthenextsectionasignificantportionofthetropicalwoodimportedintonon-EUcountriesmaybereprocessedandsoldbacktotheEUasSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)
Secondary Processed Wood Products (SPWP)Secondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)areforminganincreasinglylargepercentageofglobaltradereflectingthetrendindevelopedcountriestowardsimportinggoodsmanufacturedelsewhereand
Figure 9 Top five importers of primary wood products from Cameroon 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 10 Top 5 importers of primary wood products from Brazil 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
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32
thusoutsourcingtheassociatedecologicalfootprint(egWiedmannetal2013)SPWPcoversawiderangeofmanufacturedgoodsincludingwoodenfurnitureandpartsbuilderrsquosjoineryandwoodwork(egwindowsdoorframesetc)woodencratesetcBy2020SPWPareexpectedtosurpasspulpandpaperastheleadingtradedproducttotalingsome40ofallinternationallytradedforestproductsbyvalue(ACPWP2007)ThelargestcategoryofSPWPisfurniturewhichwasvaluedgloballyatUS$450billionin2012(UNECE2013)Furnitureproductioninemergingmarketeconomiesisgrowingatarateof18peryearandChinaiscurrentlytheworldrsquoslargestfurnitureproducer[ibid]
ThemajorityoffurnitureconsumedintheEUisEuropean-madeandGermanyItalytheUKPolandandFrancearetheleadingproducers(ITTO2013)HowevertheEUhasasignificantglobalimpactasthelargestinternationalbuyeroffurniturefromChina(McDermottetal2009)andamajorimporterfromVietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaandotherdevelopingcountries(ITTO2013)
FinishedproductsndashandespeciallyrelativelycomplexproductassemblagessuchasfurniturendashmayhaveverycomplexsupplychainsForexampleasinglelivingroomcouchmaycontainmultiplepartsbothvisibleandhiddensourcedandmanufacturedwithinawiderangeofcountriesAllofthesefactorsmakeitchallengingtoconsiderboththequantityandthequalityoftheenvironmentalandsocialfootprint
NeverthelessexistingknowledgeofglobalsupplychainsisadequatetobegintoassesstherisksinvolvedinimportedSPWPForexampleresearchhasrevealedthatalargeportionofthefurnituremadeinChinaincludeswoodfromimportedfromregionsfacingmajorgovernancechallengessuchaseasternRussiaandSoutheastAsiaAccordingtoaglobalstudyofwoodtradefromsixpriorityecoregions worldwide China is the largest buyer of hardwood logs from four of these regionsincludingtheAmur(intheRussianFarEast)theCongoBasincentralBorneoandtheMekongregion(includingMyanmarCambodiaandLaos)andmanyoftheselogsareprocessedtoproducefurnituresoldtotheEUandUS(McDermottetal2009)(seeFigure11)
InsumthefootprintqualityoftheEUrsquosimportedSPWPisanissueofsignificantconcernAtthesametimerecentprojectionssuggestthequantityofthatfootprintisalsolikelytogrowaswillthepercentageofthatgrowthsuppliedbyemerginghighrisksources(ACPWP2007)
Case Study ContextsAshighlightedinFigure2abovethecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomestic
Figure 11 Top export pathways of tropical raw logs Grey top tropical log trade Black Top furniture trade Source (McDermott et al 2009)
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33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
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35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
25
isonlocalsolutionstoeconomicsocialandenvironmentalsustainability)theabovepercentagesare0509and09respectively
Buongiornoetal(2012)madeonemorelong-rangestudywithprojectionsobtainedwiththeGlobalForestProductsModelGFPM(Buongiornoetal2003updatedinBuongiornoampZhu2011)givinganoutlookfor2030and2060fortheworldforestandforestindustriesunderdifferentscenariosThosescenariosconcernedthefutureofpopulationtheGDPgrowththeenergyusethelandusechangesandfinallytheresourceavailabilityAccordingtotheScenarioB2(mediumfuturechangesoftheabove)itcouldbecalculatedthatthesawnwoodconsumptionofEU(25)willremainatthelevelsof100millioncumin2030andadecreaseatapproximately95millioncumwilltakeplacein2060Inadditiontheestimationofthesumofconsumptionofnewsprintprintingandwritingpaperandotherpaper+paperboard(sameasthepaperandpaperboardreportedbyKangasampBaudin2003)asatotalwillreachtheamountofapproximately100millionmetrictonnesin2030and114milliontonnesin2060TheEU(25)alsoexpectedtokeepthelevelsofwood-basedpanels(plywoodparticleboardandfibreboard)consumptionatalmost62millioncumin2030andapproximately60millioncumin2060SimilartrendsarereportedinotherstudieswithlongtermprojectionsfortheforestsectorsuchasthesuccessorEFSOSII(UNECEFAO2012)FAOGlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(Zhuetal1998)andETTSV(BaudinampBrooks1995)TheEUEFTAisalsoexpectedtoincreaseitsproductionandexportsacrosstheseproductgroupsInotherwordsemergingeconomieswillplayanincreasingroleinbothforestproductproductionandconsumptionInsumfromtheperspectiveofglobalfootprintssustainableforestproductionandconsumptionhasbecomeanincreasinglyinternationalquestion
The Total Footprint Calculation for Forest ProductsAccordingtotheGlobalFootprintNetwork(2013)theEUrsquospercapitaforestecologicalfootprint(FEF)ismorethantwicethatofdevelopingcountriesandequalstheequivalentofroughly64ofitspercapitaforestbiocapacityHoweverasillustratedbyourcasestudycountriesthereisconsiderablevariationwithintheEUbothintermsoffootprintandforestbiocapacity(Figure3)Figure3highlightsmajorvariationintheinternalsurplusorovershootintheforestfootprintofEUcountriesrangingfrom
Figure 2 EU (28) forest products trade in tonnes (Dissolving Wood Pulp Mechanical Wood Pulp Newsprint Other Fibre Pulp Other Paper+Paperboard Printing+Writing Paper Recovered Paper Wood Pellets Wood Charcoal Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp)
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26
theNetherlandswhoseforestfootprintisover700ofitsforestbiocapacitytocountrieslikeFinlandandSwedenwhoconsumeronlyasmallfractionoftheirforestbiocapacityIfontheotherhandonecomparescountriesrsquoforestfootprintspercapitawithglobalaveragebiocapacitypercapitathentheresultslookquitedifferentFigure4presentstheseresultsforthecasestudycountriesInthiscaseLithuaniaandSwedenleadwiththehighestpercapitaforestfootprintsinabsolutetermsPerhapsthemostimportantmessagetotakefromFigure3and4togetheristheneedtoconsiderbothlocalandglobalcontextswhenassessingforestsectorimpactsThesustainabilityofacountryrsquosconsumptionlevelsdependsonmanyfactorsincludingtheenvironmentalandsocialcostsandbenefitsoflocal
Figure 3 Forest footprint per capita as percent of a countryrsquos per capita forest biocapacity (the line highlights the 100 threshold) Source Global Footprint Network 2013 National Footprint Accounts 2011 Edition
Figure 4 Forest footprint per capita for INTEGRAL case study countries compared to global average (bottom line) and global biocapacity (top line) Source Global Footprint Network 2013 National Footprint Accounts 2011 Edition
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27
woodproductionversusothersubstitutableproductsForexampleitmayberelativelysustainableforacountrylikeSwedenthatisrichlyendowedwithforestresourcestoconsumemorewoodpercapitathanPortugal
AshighlightedinFigure3bellowthecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomesticovershootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedasimportanttotheemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHoweverintheselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)
The Quality of the EUrsquos Forest FootprintInthissectiontheinternationaldimensionsofforesttradearehighlightedinorderthatlocalstakeholdersmayconsiderforthemselveswhatqualityofinternalandexternalforestfootprintiscoherentwiththeirvaluesFurthermorethissectionfocusesonidentifyingsomekeyissuesrelatingtotheenvironmentalandsocialqualitiesoftradedwoodInparticularitconsidersthecountriesoforiginoftotalwoodproductsandbyproducttypeanddiscussestheimplicationsthisholdsforsustainabilityThisanalysisofimplicationsisfarfromexhaustivebutisintendedtoillustratehowstakeholdersmightadoptaglobalperspectiveontheenvironmentalandsocialissuesofimportancetothemincludingthosetheymayidentifyinfutureorientedscenario-buildingprocesses
Theassessmentofwhetherinternationallytradedwoodproductsareldquosustainablerdquoisclearlyacomplexendeavorandonethathasfueledagrowingbodyofresearch(egBuonocoreetal2014Mayeretal2006ForestTrends2013)Forestpracticesvaryconsiderablynotonlyamongcountriesandovertimebutwithineachcountryandamongdifferentproductsandsupplychains
Neverthelessa simpleanalysisof trade flows that identifiescountriesoforigincanhelp toidentifykeyrisksinthesupplychainItiswellknownforexamplethatforesttenureanduserightsareunresolvedordisputedacrossmuchofthedevelopingworldandhencewoodoriginatingfromtheseregionsmayhavebeenproducedinviolationoflocalrightsInternationaldemandfortimbercan further incentivize appropriation of forest resources from local communities leaving themwithoutaccesstoorbenefitfromlocalforestgoodsandservicesTheenvironmentalimpactsofforestproductionandharvestalsovariesconsiderablyamongdevelopedaswellasdevelopingcountrieseg(McDermottetal2010)
Origins (Trade Flows) of Forest Products Across All CategoriesWith the enlargement of the EU in 2004 and 2007 illegal logging has become a problem forinternationaltradewithintheEUparticularlyaffectingsomeofthenewMemberStatesThemarketshareofthisintra-EUtradefromsuspicioussourceshasbeenestimatedatsomewherebetween6and8(WWF2008)
InregardtotheEUtradeofwoodproductswiththerestoftheworldanestimated82ofthevalueofthistrade(includingfurniture)comesfromcountrieswithldquohighriskrdquoofillegallogging(ForestTrends2013)ThispercentagevariesbyEUmemberstatereflectinginpartthecountryrsquosrelativerelianceonwoodproductimportsandtheirroleinintra-regionaltradeTheleadingimportersofhighriskwoodaretheUKGermanyFranceItalytheNetherlandsandBelgiumTheUKhas
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28
historically imported the largestestimatedquantitiesof illegal timberwhile theNetherlandshasservedasaleadingldquofirst-placerrdquoorconduitofillegaltimberdestinedforelsewhereintheEU(WWF2008)Acrossallofthesecountriesimportsofillegaltimberdroppedsignificantlyin2008dueinalargeparttotheglobalrecession(LawsonampMacFaul2010)ItispossiblethattheEUrsquoslegalityinitiativessuchastheEUTimberRegulationmaybehavingsomeeffectbutitistooearlytodrawconclusionsinthisregardFigure5presentsthecountriesoforiginofthesehigh-riskproductsandtheaveragevolumesofselectforestproductsimportedfromthesecountriesintotheEUovertheperiod2000-2013
ThebiggestportionofEU(27)importsofforestproducts(HS44)fortheperiod2000-2013 on average is from the former Soviet Union totaling 138 million cum The secondlargest region of origin is East Asia which provided 78 million cum average for the sameperiodThesearefollowedbySouthAmerica(35millioncum)therestofEurope(31millioncum)NorthAmerica(24millioncum)andSub-SaharanAfricaSouthEastAfricaandotherswithsmallerquantities
FortheaboveproductcategoriesRussiahasrecentlyemergedastheleadingsourceofillegalwoodimportedintotheEUThiswoodismostlyintheformofroundwoodbutalsoincludesprocessedproductsThemainimporterofRussiantimberamongtheEUcountriesisFinlandNearlyhalfofall(legalandillegal)EuropeantimberimportsfromRussiaarriveinFinlandmainlytobeprocessedintopulpandpaperandthenexportedtootherEUstates(WWF2008)
Figure 5 EU (27) forest products imports (average) and origin regions for the period 2000-2013 [USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 2014] Includes forest products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification This includes some secondary processed wood products (SPWP) such as builderrsquos joinery but does not include pulp and paper products (HS 47-49) or furniture (HS 94)
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29
TheothermajorldquohighriskrdquoregionsoforiginincludeEastandSouthEastAsiaSouthAmericaandAfricaTheseregionsarediscussedinthefollowingsectionsonldquotropicalwoodrdquoandldquosecondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)rdquo
Tropical WoodTropicalforestlossanddegradationhasbecomeanissueofmajorglobalconcern(egMcDermott2014)Timberharvestisnotthemajordirectdriverofthislosssinceharvestedareasaregenerallycapableofregrowthbutmarketsfortropicaltimbercanplayaroleinfinancingroad-buildingandotherinfrastructurethatinturnfacilitatesconversiontoagricultureorotherlanduses(egMeyfroidtetal2010GeistampLambin2002)AconsiderationoftropicaltimberimportstotheEUthereforeshedssomelightonwheretheEUcouldbeplayingeitherapositiveornegativeroleinpromotingsustainableforestryFigures6and7presenttheEUimportsoftropicalwoodintonnesandvalue
BasedonbothvolumeandvalueIndonesiaMalaysiaCameroonandGabonareallleadingsourcesoftropicalwoodproducts(HS44)fortheEUasawholeAllofthesecountriesareknowntofaceseriouschallengesingoverningforesttradealthoughestimatingtheprecisenatureandextentofthesechallengesisitselfverydifficultSurvey-basedestimatesofillegalloggingasapercentofproductionrangefrom40-61inIndonesia59-65inCameroonand14-25inMalaysia(LawsonampMcFaul2010)
IntotalprimaryprocessedtropicalwoodproductsrepresentonlyasmallportionoftheEUrsquostotalwoodtradeHowevertheimpactofthistradeonthehostcountriesdependsalsoontherelativeroletheEUplaysamonginternationalimporters(Figures8910)
TheleadingdestinationsofthetopprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromIndonesiaareJapanChinaandtheUSA(Figure8)
Figure 6 EU (28) tropical wood import weights (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014]
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30
Figure 8 Top five importers of primary wood products from Indonesia 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 7 EU (28) tropical wood import value (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014] Includes all tropical wood products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification
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31
ChinaistheleadimporterofprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromCameroon(Figure9)followedbyfourdifferentEUcountriesincludingtheINTEGRALcasestudycountriesofFranceItalyandtheNetherlands
TropicalwoodfromBrazil(Figure10)issourcedfromtheBrazilianAmazonthehistoricalleaderintropicalforestlossandaregionstillexperiencingmajorproblemswithillegalloggingandforestdegradation(egMatricardietal2013)ThecasestudyFranceisaleadingbuyeroftropicalplywoodfromBrazilwhiletheNetherlandsisthefourthlargestbuyerofBraziliantropicalsawnwood
InsumFigures8910revealmajorvariationintherelativeimportanceoftheEUasadirecttradingpartnerHoweveraswillbediscussedinthenextsectionasignificantportionofthetropicalwoodimportedintonon-EUcountriesmaybereprocessedandsoldbacktotheEUasSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)
Secondary Processed Wood Products (SPWP)Secondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)areforminganincreasinglylargepercentageofglobaltradereflectingthetrendindevelopedcountriestowardsimportinggoodsmanufacturedelsewhereand
Figure 9 Top five importers of primary wood products from Cameroon 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 10 Top 5 importers of primary wood products from Brazil 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
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32
thusoutsourcingtheassociatedecologicalfootprint(egWiedmannetal2013)SPWPcoversawiderangeofmanufacturedgoodsincludingwoodenfurnitureandpartsbuilderrsquosjoineryandwoodwork(egwindowsdoorframesetc)woodencratesetcBy2020SPWPareexpectedtosurpasspulpandpaperastheleadingtradedproducttotalingsome40ofallinternationallytradedforestproductsbyvalue(ACPWP2007)ThelargestcategoryofSPWPisfurniturewhichwasvaluedgloballyatUS$450billionin2012(UNECE2013)Furnitureproductioninemergingmarketeconomiesisgrowingatarateof18peryearandChinaiscurrentlytheworldrsquoslargestfurnitureproducer[ibid]
ThemajorityoffurnitureconsumedintheEUisEuropean-madeandGermanyItalytheUKPolandandFrancearetheleadingproducers(ITTO2013)HowevertheEUhasasignificantglobalimpactasthelargestinternationalbuyeroffurniturefromChina(McDermottetal2009)andamajorimporterfromVietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaandotherdevelopingcountries(ITTO2013)
FinishedproductsndashandespeciallyrelativelycomplexproductassemblagessuchasfurniturendashmayhaveverycomplexsupplychainsForexampleasinglelivingroomcouchmaycontainmultiplepartsbothvisibleandhiddensourcedandmanufacturedwithinawiderangeofcountriesAllofthesefactorsmakeitchallengingtoconsiderboththequantityandthequalityoftheenvironmentalandsocialfootprint
NeverthelessexistingknowledgeofglobalsupplychainsisadequatetobegintoassesstherisksinvolvedinimportedSPWPForexampleresearchhasrevealedthatalargeportionofthefurnituremadeinChinaincludeswoodfromimportedfromregionsfacingmajorgovernancechallengessuchaseasternRussiaandSoutheastAsiaAccordingtoaglobalstudyofwoodtradefromsixpriorityecoregions worldwide China is the largest buyer of hardwood logs from four of these regionsincludingtheAmur(intheRussianFarEast)theCongoBasincentralBorneoandtheMekongregion(includingMyanmarCambodiaandLaos)andmanyoftheselogsareprocessedtoproducefurnituresoldtotheEUandUS(McDermottetal2009)(seeFigure11)
InsumthefootprintqualityoftheEUrsquosimportedSPWPisanissueofsignificantconcernAtthesametimerecentprojectionssuggestthequantityofthatfootprintisalsolikelytogrowaswillthepercentageofthatgrowthsuppliedbyemerginghighrisksources(ACPWP2007)
Case Study ContextsAshighlightedinFigure2abovethecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomestic
Figure 11 Top export pathways of tropical raw logs Grey top tropical log trade Black Top furniture trade Source (McDermott et al 2009)
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33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
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34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
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35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
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26
theNetherlandswhoseforestfootprintisover700ofitsforestbiocapacitytocountrieslikeFinlandandSwedenwhoconsumeronlyasmallfractionoftheirforestbiocapacityIfontheotherhandonecomparescountriesrsquoforestfootprintspercapitawithglobalaveragebiocapacitypercapitathentheresultslookquitedifferentFigure4presentstheseresultsforthecasestudycountriesInthiscaseLithuaniaandSwedenleadwiththehighestpercapitaforestfootprintsinabsolutetermsPerhapsthemostimportantmessagetotakefromFigure3and4togetheristheneedtoconsiderbothlocalandglobalcontextswhenassessingforestsectorimpactsThesustainabilityofacountryrsquosconsumptionlevelsdependsonmanyfactorsincludingtheenvironmentalandsocialcostsandbenefitsoflocal
Figure 3 Forest footprint per capita as percent of a countryrsquos per capita forest biocapacity (the line highlights the 100 threshold) Source Global Footprint Network 2013 National Footprint Accounts 2011 Edition
Figure 4 Forest footprint per capita for INTEGRAL case study countries compared to global average (bottom line) and global biocapacity (top line) Source Global Footprint Network 2013 National Footprint Accounts 2011 Edition
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27
woodproductionversusothersubstitutableproductsForexampleitmayberelativelysustainableforacountrylikeSwedenthatisrichlyendowedwithforestresourcestoconsumemorewoodpercapitathanPortugal
AshighlightedinFigure3bellowthecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomesticovershootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedasimportanttotheemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHoweverintheselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)
The Quality of the EUrsquos Forest FootprintInthissectiontheinternationaldimensionsofforesttradearehighlightedinorderthatlocalstakeholdersmayconsiderforthemselveswhatqualityofinternalandexternalforestfootprintiscoherentwiththeirvaluesFurthermorethissectionfocusesonidentifyingsomekeyissuesrelatingtotheenvironmentalandsocialqualitiesoftradedwoodInparticularitconsidersthecountriesoforiginoftotalwoodproductsandbyproducttypeanddiscussestheimplicationsthisholdsforsustainabilityThisanalysisofimplicationsisfarfromexhaustivebutisintendedtoillustratehowstakeholdersmightadoptaglobalperspectiveontheenvironmentalandsocialissuesofimportancetothemincludingthosetheymayidentifyinfutureorientedscenario-buildingprocesses
Theassessmentofwhetherinternationallytradedwoodproductsareldquosustainablerdquoisclearlyacomplexendeavorandonethathasfueledagrowingbodyofresearch(egBuonocoreetal2014Mayeretal2006ForestTrends2013)Forestpracticesvaryconsiderablynotonlyamongcountriesandovertimebutwithineachcountryandamongdifferentproductsandsupplychains
Neverthelessa simpleanalysisof trade flows that identifiescountriesoforigincanhelp toidentifykeyrisksinthesupplychainItiswellknownforexamplethatforesttenureanduserightsareunresolvedordisputedacrossmuchofthedevelopingworldandhencewoodoriginatingfromtheseregionsmayhavebeenproducedinviolationoflocalrightsInternationaldemandfortimbercan further incentivize appropriation of forest resources from local communities leaving themwithoutaccesstoorbenefitfromlocalforestgoodsandservicesTheenvironmentalimpactsofforestproductionandharvestalsovariesconsiderablyamongdevelopedaswellasdevelopingcountrieseg(McDermottetal2010)
Origins (Trade Flows) of Forest Products Across All CategoriesWith the enlargement of the EU in 2004 and 2007 illegal logging has become a problem forinternationaltradewithintheEUparticularlyaffectingsomeofthenewMemberStatesThemarketshareofthisintra-EUtradefromsuspicioussourceshasbeenestimatedatsomewherebetween6and8(WWF2008)
InregardtotheEUtradeofwoodproductswiththerestoftheworldanestimated82ofthevalueofthistrade(includingfurniture)comesfromcountrieswithldquohighriskrdquoofillegallogging(ForestTrends2013)ThispercentagevariesbyEUmemberstatereflectinginpartthecountryrsquosrelativerelianceonwoodproductimportsandtheirroleinintra-regionaltradeTheleadingimportersofhighriskwoodaretheUKGermanyFranceItalytheNetherlandsandBelgiumTheUKhas
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28
historically imported the largestestimatedquantitiesof illegal timberwhile theNetherlandshasservedasaleadingldquofirst-placerrdquoorconduitofillegaltimberdestinedforelsewhereintheEU(WWF2008)Acrossallofthesecountriesimportsofillegaltimberdroppedsignificantlyin2008dueinalargeparttotheglobalrecession(LawsonampMacFaul2010)ItispossiblethattheEUrsquoslegalityinitiativessuchastheEUTimberRegulationmaybehavingsomeeffectbutitistooearlytodrawconclusionsinthisregardFigure5presentsthecountriesoforiginofthesehigh-riskproductsandtheaveragevolumesofselectforestproductsimportedfromthesecountriesintotheEUovertheperiod2000-2013
ThebiggestportionofEU(27)importsofforestproducts(HS44)fortheperiod2000-2013 on average is from the former Soviet Union totaling 138 million cum The secondlargest region of origin is East Asia which provided 78 million cum average for the sameperiodThesearefollowedbySouthAmerica(35millioncum)therestofEurope(31millioncum)NorthAmerica(24millioncum)andSub-SaharanAfricaSouthEastAfricaandotherswithsmallerquantities
FortheaboveproductcategoriesRussiahasrecentlyemergedastheleadingsourceofillegalwoodimportedintotheEUThiswoodismostlyintheformofroundwoodbutalsoincludesprocessedproductsThemainimporterofRussiantimberamongtheEUcountriesisFinlandNearlyhalfofall(legalandillegal)EuropeantimberimportsfromRussiaarriveinFinlandmainlytobeprocessedintopulpandpaperandthenexportedtootherEUstates(WWF2008)
Figure 5 EU (27) forest products imports (average) and origin regions for the period 2000-2013 [USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 2014] Includes forest products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification This includes some secondary processed wood products (SPWP) such as builderrsquos joinery but does not include pulp and paper products (HS 47-49) or furniture (HS 94)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
29
TheothermajorldquohighriskrdquoregionsoforiginincludeEastandSouthEastAsiaSouthAmericaandAfricaTheseregionsarediscussedinthefollowingsectionsonldquotropicalwoodrdquoandldquosecondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)rdquo
Tropical WoodTropicalforestlossanddegradationhasbecomeanissueofmajorglobalconcern(egMcDermott2014)Timberharvestisnotthemajordirectdriverofthislosssinceharvestedareasaregenerallycapableofregrowthbutmarketsfortropicaltimbercanplayaroleinfinancingroad-buildingandotherinfrastructurethatinturnfacilitatesconversiontoagricultureorotherlanduses(egMeyfroidtetal2010GeistampLambin2002)AconsiderationoftropicaltimberimportstotheEUthereforeshedssomelightonwheretheEUcouldbeplayingeitherapositiveornegativeroleinpromotingsustainableforestryFigures6and7presenttheEUimportsoftropicalwoodintonnesandvalue
BasedonbothvolumeandvalueIndonesiaMalaysiaCameroonandGabonareallleadingsourcesoftropicalwoodproducts(HS44)fortheEUasawholeAllofthesecountriesareknowntofaceseriouschallengesingoverningforesttradealthoughestimatingtheprecisenatureandextentofthesechallengesisitselfverydifficultSurvey-basedestimatesofillegalloggingasapercentofproductionrangefrom40-61inIndonesia59-65inCameroonand14-25inMalaysia(LawsonampMcFaul2010)
IntotalprimaryprocessedtropicalwoodproductsrepresentonlyasmallportionoftheEUrsquostotalwoodtradeHowevertheimpactofthistradeonthehostcountriesdependsalsoontherelativeroletheEUplaysamonginternationalimporters(Figures8910)
TheleadingdestinationsofthetopprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromIndonesiaareJapanChinaandtheUSA(Figure8)
Figure 6 EU (28) tropical wood import weights (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014]
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
30
Figure 8 Top five importers of primary wood products from Indonesia 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 7 EU (28) tropical wood import value (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014] Includes all tropical wood products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
31
ChinaistheleadimporterofprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromCameroon(Figure9)followedbyfourdifferentEUcountriesincludingtheINTEGRALcasestudycountriesofFranceItalyandtheNetherlands
TropicalwoodfromBrazil(Figure10)issourcedfromtheBrazilianAmazonthehistoricalleaderintropicalforestlossandaregionstillexperiencingmajorproblemswithillegalloggingandforestdegradation(egMatricardietal2013)ThecasestudyFranceisaleadingbuyeroftropicalplywoodfromBrazilwhiletheNetherlandsisthefourthlargestbuyerofBraziliantropicalsawnwood
InsumFigures8910revealmajorvariationintherelativeimportanceoftheEUasadirecttradingpartnerHoweveraswillbediscussedinthenextsectionasignificantportionofthetropicalwoodimportedintonon-EUcountriesmaybereprocessedandsoldbacktotheEUasSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)
Secondary Processed Wood Products (SPWP)Secondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)areforminganincreasinglylargepercentageofglobaltradereflectingthetrendindevelopedcountriestowardsimportinggoodsmanufacturedelsewhereand
Figure 9 Top five importers of primary wood products from Cameroon 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 10 Top 5 importers of primary wood products from Brazil 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
32
thusoutsourcingtheassociatedecologicalfootprint(egWiedmannetal2013)SPWPcoversawiderangeofmanufacturedgoodsincludingwoodenfurnitureandpartsbuilderrsquosjoineryandwoodwork(egwindowsdoorframesetc)woodencratesetcBy2020SPWPareexpectedtosurpasspulpandpaperastheleadingtradedproducttotalingsome40ofallinternationallytradedforestproductsbyvalue(ACPWP2007)ThelargestcategoryofSPWPisfurniturewhichwasvaluedgloballyatUS$450billionin2012(UNECE2013)Furnitureproductioninemergingmarketeconomiesisgrowingatarateof18peryearandChinaiscurrentlytheworldrsquoslargestfurnitureproducer[ibid]
ThemajorityoffurnitureconsumedintheEUisEuropean-madeandGermanyItalytheUKPolandandFrancearetheleadingproducers(ITTO2013)HowevertheEUhasasignificantglobalimpactasthelargestinternationalbuyeroffurniturefromChina(McDermottetal2009)andamajorimporterfromVietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaandotherdevelopingcountries(ITTO2013)
FinishedproductsndashandespeciallyrelativelycomplexproductassemblagessuchasfurniturendashmayhaveverycomplexsupplychainsForexampleasinglelivingroomcouchmaycontainmultiplepartsbothvisibleandhiddensourcedandmanufacturedwithinawiderangeofcountriesAllofthesefactorsmakeitchallengingtoconsiderboththequantityandthequalityoftheenvironmentalandsocialfootprint
NeverthelessexistingknowledgeofglobalsupplychainsisadequatetobegintoassesstherisksinvolvedinimportedSPWPForexampleresearchhasrevealedthatalargeportionofthefurnituremadeinChinaincludeswoodfromimportedfromregionsfacingmajorgovernancechallengessuchaseasternRussiaandSoutheastAsiaAccordingtoaglobalstudyofwoodtradefromsixpriorityecoregions worldwide China is the largest buyer of hardwood logs from four of these regionsincludingtheAmur(intheRussianFarEast)theCongoBasincentralBorneoandtheMekongregion(includingMyanmarCambodiaandLaos)andmanyoftheselogsareprocessedtoproducefurnituresoldtotheEUandUS(McDermottetal2009)(seeFigure11)
InsumthefootprintqualityoftheEUrsquosimportedSPWPisanissueofsignificantconcernAtthesametimerecentprojectionssuggestthequantityofthatfootprintisalsolikelytogrowaswillthepercentageofthatgrowthsuppliedbyemerginghighrisksources(ACPWP2007)
Case Study ContextsAshighlightedinFigure2abovethecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomestic
Figure 11 Top export pathways of tropical raw logs Grey top tropical log trade Black Top furniture trade Source (McDermott et al 2009)
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33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
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BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
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27
woodproductionversusothersubstitutableproductsForexampleitmayberelativelysustainableforacountrylikeSwedenthatisrichlyendowedwithforestresourcestoconsumemorewoodpercapitathanPortugal
AshighlightedinFigure3bellowthecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomesticovershootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedasimportanttotheemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHoweverintheselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)
The Quality of the EUrsquos Forest FootprintInthissectiontheinternationaldimensionsofforesttradearehighlightedinorderthatlocalstakeholdersmayconsiderforthemselveswhatqualityofinternalandexternalforestfootprintiscoherentwiththeirvaluesFurthermorethissectionfocusesonidentifyingsomekeyissuesrelatingtotheenvironmentalandsocialqualitiesoftradedwoodInparticularitconsidersthecountriesoforiginoftotalwoodproductsandbyproducttypeanddiscussestheimplicationsthisholdsforsustainabilityThisanalysisofimplicationsisfarfromexhaustivebutisintendedtoillustratehowstakeholdersmightadoptaglobalperspectiveontheenvironmentalandsocialissuesofimportancetothemincludingthosetheymayidentifyinfutureorientedscenario-buildingprocesses
Theassessmentofwhetherinternationallytradedwoodproductsareldquosustainablerdquoisclearlyacomplexendeavorandonethathasfueledagrowingbodyofresearch(egBuonocoreetal2014Mayeretal2006ForestTrends2013)Forestpracticesvaryconsiderablynotonlyamongcountriesandovertimebutwithineachcountryandamongdifferentproductsandsupplychains
Neverthelessa simpleanalysisof trade flows that identifiescountriesoforigincanhelp toidentifykeyrisksinthesupplychainItiswellknownforexamplethatforesttenureanduserightsareunresolvedordisputedacrossmuchofthedevelopingworldandhencewoodoriginatingfromtheseregionsmayhavebeenproducedinviolationoflocalrightsInternationaldemandfortimbercan further incentivize appropriation of forest resources from local communities leaving themwithoutaccesstoorbenefitfromlocalforestgoodsandservicesTheenvironmentalimpactsofforestproductionandharvestalsovariesconsiderablyamongdevelopedaswellasdevelopingcountrieseg(McDermottetal2010)
Origins (Trade Flows) of Forest Products Across All CategoriesWith the enlargement of the EU in 2004 and 2007 illegal logging has become a problem forinternationaltradewithintheEUparticularlyaffectingsomeofthenewMemberStatesThemarketshareofthisintra-EUtradefromsuspicioussourceshasbeenestimatedatsomewherebetween6and8(WWF2008)
InregardtotheEUtradeofwoodproductswiththerestoftheworldanestimated82ofthevalueofthistrade(includingfurniture)comesfromcountrieswithldquohighriskrdquoofillegallogging(ForestTrends2013)ThispercentagevariesbyEUmemberstatereflectinginpartthecountryrsquosrelativerelianceonwoodproductimportsandtheirroleinintra-regionaltradeTheleadingimportersofhighriskwoodaretheUKGermanyFranceItalytheNetherlandsandBelgiumTheUKhas
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28
historically imported the largestestimatedquantitiesof illegal timberwhile theNetherlandshasservedasaleadingldquofirst-placerrdquoorconduitofillegaltimberdestinedforelsewhereintheEU(WWF2008)Acrossallofthesecountriesimportsofillegaltimberdroppedsignificantlyin2008dueinalargeparttotheglobalrecession(LawsonampMacFaul2010)ItispossiblethattheEUrsquoslegalityinitiativessuchastheEUTimberRegulationmaybehavingsomeeffectbutitistooearlytodrawconclusionsinthisregardFigure5presentsthecountriesoforiginofthesehigh-riskproductsandtheaveragevolumesofselectforestproductsimportedfromthesecountriesintotheEUovertheperiod2000-2013
ThebiggestportionofEU(27)importsofforestproducts(HS44)fortheperiod2000-2013 on average is from the former Soviet Union totaling 138 million cum The secondlargest region of origin is East Asia which provided 78 million cum average for the sameperiodThesearefollowedbySouthAmerica(35millioncum)therestofEurope(31millioncum)NorthAmerica(24millioncum)andSub-SaharanAfricaSouthEastAfricaandotherswithsmallerquantities
FortheaboveproductcategoriesRussiahasrecentlyemergedastheleadingsourceofillegalwoodimportedintotheEUThiswoodismostlyintheformofroundwoodbutalsoincludesprocessedproductsThemainimporterofRussiantimberamongtheEUcountriesisFinlandNearlyhalfofall(legalandillegal)EuropeantimberimportsfromRussiaarriveinFinlandmainlytobeprocessedintopulpandpaperandthenexportedtootherEUstates(WWF2008)
Figure 5 EU (27) forest products imports (average) and origin regions for the period 2000-2013 [USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 2014] Includes forest products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification This includes some secondary processed wood products (SPWP) such as builderrsquos joinery but does not include pulp and paper products (HS 47-49) or furniture (HS 94)
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29
TheothermajorldquohighriskrdquoregionsoforiginincludeEastandSouthEastAsiaSouthAmericaandAfricaTheseregionsarediscussedinthefollowingsectionsonldquotropicalwoodrdquoandldquosecondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)rdquo
Tropical WoodTropicalforestlossanddegradationhasbecomeanissueofmajorglobalconcern(egMcDermott2014)Timberharvestisnotthemajordirectdriverofthislosssinceharvestedareasaregenerallycapableofregrowthbutmarketsfortropicaltimbercanplayaroleinfinancingroad-buildingandotherinfrastructurethatinturnfacilitatesconversiontoagricultureorotherlanduses(egMeyfroidtetal2010GeistampLambin2002)AconsiderationoftropicaltimberimportstotheEUthereforeshedssomelightonwheretheEUcouldbeplayingeitherapositiveornegativeroleinpromotingsustainableforestryFigures6and7presenttheEUimportsoftropicalwoodintonnesandvalue
BasedonbothvolumeandvalueIndonesiaMalaysiaCameroonandGabonareallleadingsourcesoftropicalwoodproducts(HS44)fortheEUasawholeAllofthesecountriesareknowntofaceseriouschallengesingoverningforesttradealthoughestimatingtheprecisenatureandextentofthesechallengesisitselfverydifficultSurvey-basedestimatesofillegalloggingasapercentofproductionrangefrom40-61inIndonesia59-65inCameroonand14-25inMalaysia(LawsonampMcFaul2010)
IntotalprimaryprocessedtropicalwoodproductsrepresentonlyasmallportionoftheEUrsquostotalwoodtradeHowevertheimpactofthistradeonthehostcountriesdependsalsoontherelativeroletheEUplaysamonginternationalimporters(Figures8910)
TheleadingdestinationsofthetopprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromIndonesiaareJapanChinaandtheUSA(Figure8)
Figure 6 EU (28) tropical wood import weights (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014]
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30
Figure 8 Top five importers of primary wood products from Indonesia 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 7 EU (28) tropical wood import value (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014] Includes all tropical wood products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
31
ChinaistheleadimporterofprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromCameroon(Figure9)followedbyfourdifferentEUcountriesincludingtheINTEGRALcasestudycountriesofFranceItalyandtheNetherlands
TropicalwoodfromBrazil(Figure10)issourcedfromtheBrazilianAmazonthehistoricalleaderintropicalforestlossandaregionstillexperiencingmajorproblemswithillegalloggingandforestdegradation(egMatricardietal2013)ThecasestudyFranceisaleadingbuyeroftropicalplywoodfromBrazilwhiletheNetherlandsisthefourthlargestbuyerofBraziliantropicalsawnwood
InsumFigures8910revealmajorvariationintherelativeimportanceoftheEUasadirecttradingpartnerHoweveraswillbediscussedinthenextsectionasignificantportionofthetropicalwoodimportedintonon-EUcountriesmaybereprocessedandsoldbacktotheEUasSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)
Secondary Processed Wood Products (SPWP)Secondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)areforminganincreasinglylargepercentageofglobaltradereflectingthetrendindevelopedcountriestowardsimportinggoodsmanufacturedelsewhereand
Figure 9 Top five importers of primary wood products from Cameroon 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 10 Top 5 importers of primary wood products from Brazil 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
32
thusoutsourcingtheassociatedecologicalfootprint(egWiedmannetal2013)SPWPcoversawiderangeofmanufacturedgoodsincludingwoodenfurnitureandpartsbuilderrsquosjoineryandwoodwork(egwindowsdoorframesetc)woodencratesetcBy2020SPWPareexpectedtosurpasspulpandpaperastheleadingtradedproducttotalingsome40ofallinternationallytradedforestproductsbyvalue(ACPWP2007)ThelargestcategoryofSPWPisfurniturewhichwasvaluedgloballyatUS$450billionin2012(UNECE2013)Furnitureproductioninemergingmarketeconomiesisgrowingatarateof18peryearandChinaiscurrentlytheworldrsquoslargestfurnitureproducer[ibid]
ThemajorityoffurnitureconsumedintheEUisEuropean-madeandGermanyItalytheUKPolandandFrancearetheleadingproducers(ITTO2013)HowevertheEUhasasignificantglobalimpactasthelargestinternationalbuyeroffurniturefromChina(McDermottetal2009)andamajorimporterfromVietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaandotherdevelopingcountries(ITTO2013)
FinishedproductsndashandespeciallyrelativelycomplexproductassemblagessuchasfurniturendashmayhaveverycomplexsupplychainsForexampleasinglelivingroomcouchmaycontainmultiplepartsbothvisibleandhiddensourcedandmanufacturedwithinawiderangeofcountriesAllofthesefactorsmakeitchallengingtoconsiderboththequantityandthequalityoftheenvironmentalandsocialfootprint
NeverthelessexistingknowledgeofglobalsupplychainsisadequatetobegintoassesstherisksinvolvedinimportedSPWPForexampleresearchhasrevealedthatalargeportionofthefurnituremadeinChinaincludeswoodfromimportedfromregionsfacingmajorgovernancechallengessuchaseasternRussiaandSoutheastAsiaAccordingtoaglobalstudyofwoodtradefromsixpriorityecoregions worldwide China is the largest buyer of hardwood logs from four of these regionsincludingtheAmur(intheRussianFarEast)theCongoBasincentralBorneoandtheMekongregion(includingMyanmarCambodiaandLaos)andmanyoftheselogsareprocessedtoproducefurnituresoldtotheEUandUS(McDermottetal2009)(seeFigure11)
InsumthefootprintqualityoftheEUrsquosimportedSPWPisanissueofsignificantconcernAtthesametimerecentprojectionssuggestthequantityofthatfootprintisalsolikelytogrowaswillthepercentageofthatgrowthsuppliedbyemerginghighrisksources(ACPWP2007)
Case Study ContextsAshighlightedinFigure2abovethecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomestic
Figure 11 Top export pathways of tropical raw logs Grey top tropical log trade Black Top furniture trade Source (McDermott et al 2009)
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33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
28
historically imported the largestestimatedquantitiesof illegal timberwhile theNetherlandshasservedasaleadingldquofirst-placerrdquoorconduitofillegaltimberdestinedforelsewhereintheEU(WWF2008)Acrossallofthesecountriesimportsofillegaltimberdroppedsignificantlyin2008dueinalargeparttotheglobalrecession(LawsonampMacFaul2010)ItispossiblethattheEUrsquoslegalityinitiativessuchastheEUTimberRegulationmaybehavingsomeeffectbutitistooearlytodrawconclusionsinthisregardFigure5presentsthecountriesoforiginofthesehigh-riskproductsandtheaveragevolumesofselectforestproductsimportedfromthesecountriesintotheEUovertheperiod2000-2013
ThebiggestportionofEU(27)importsofforestproducts(HS44)fortheperiod2000-2013 on average is from the former Soviet Union totaling 138 million cum The secondlargest region of origin is East Asia which provided 78 million cum average for the sameperiodThesearefollowedbySouthAmerica(35millioncum)therestofEurope(31millioncum)NorthAmerica(24millioncum)andSub-SaharanAfricaSouthEastAfricaandotherswithsmallerquantities
FortheaboveproductcategoriesRussiahasrecentlyemergedastheleadingsourceofillegalwoodimportedintotheEUThiswoodismostlyintheformofroundwoodbutalsoincludesprocessedproductsThemainimporterofRussiantimberamongtheEUcountriesisFinlandNearlyhalfofall(legalandillegal)EuropeantimberimportsfromRussiaarriveinFinlandmainlytobeprocessedintopulpandpaperandthenexportedtootherEUstates(WWF2008)
Figure 5 EU (27) forest products imports (average) and origin regions for the period 2000-2013 [USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 2014] Includes forest products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification This includes some secondary processed wood products (SPWP) such as builderrsquos joinery but does not include pulp and paper products (HS 47-49) or furniture (HS 94)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
29
TheothermajorldquohighriskrdquoregionsoforiginincludeEastandSouthEastAsiaSouthAmericaandAfricaTheseregionsarediscussedinthefollowingsectionsonldquotropicalwoodrdquoandldquosecondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)rdquo
Tropical WoodTropicalforestlossanddegradationhasbecomeanissueofmajorglobalconcern(egMcDermott2014)Timberharvestisnotthemajordirectdriverofthislosssinceharvestedareasaregenerallycapableofregrowthbutmarketsfortropicaltimbercanplayaroleinfinancingroad-buildingandotherinfrastructurethatinturnfacilitatesconversiontoagricultureorotherlanduses(egMeyfroidtetal2010GeistampLambin2002)AconsiderationoftropicaltimberimportstotheEUthereforeshedssomelightonwheretheEUcouldbeplayingeitherapositiveornegativeroleinpromotingsustainableforestryFigures6and7presenttheEUimportsoftropicalwoodintonnesandvalue
BasedonbothvolumeandvalueIndonesiaMalaysiaCameroonandGabonareallleadingsourcesoftropicalwoodproducts(HS44)fortheEUasawholeAllofthesecountriesareknowntofaceseriouschallengesingoverningforesttradealthoughestimatingtheprecisenatureandextentofthesechallengesisitselfverydifficultSurvey-basedestimatesofillegalloggingasapercentofproductionrangefrom40-61inIndonesia59-65inCameroonand14-25inMalaysia(LawsonampMcFaul2010)
IntotalprimaryprocessedtropicalwoodproductsrepresentonlyasmallportionoftheEUrsquostotalwoodtradeHowevertheimpactofthistradeonthehostcountriesdependsalsoontherelativeroletheEUplaysamonginternationalimporters(Figures8910)
TheleadingdestinationsofthetopprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromIndonesiaareJapanChinaandtheUSA(Figure8)
Figure 6 EU (28) tropical wood import weights (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014]
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
30
Figure 8 Top five importers of primary wood products from Indonesia 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 7 EU (28) tropical wood import value (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014] Includes all tropical wood products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
31
ChinaistheleadimporterofprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromCameroon(Figure9)followedbyfourdifferentEUcountriesincludingtheINTEGRALcasestudycountriesofFranceItalyandtheNetherlands
TropicalwoodfromBrazil(Figure10)issourcedfromtheBrazilianAmazonthehistoricalleaderintropicalforestlossandaregionstillexperiencingmajorproblemswithillegalloggingandforestdegradation(egMatricardietal2013)ThecasestudyFranceisaleadingbuyeroftropicalplywoodfromBrazilwhiletheNetherlandsisthefourthlargestbuyerofBraziliantropicalsawnwood
InsumFigures8910revealmajorvariationintherelativeimportanceoftheEUasadirecttradingpartnerHoweveraswillbediscussedinthenextsectionasignificantportionofthetropicalwoodimportedintonon-EUcountriesmaybereprocessedandsoldbacktotheEUasSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)
Secondary Processed Wood Products (SPWP)Secondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)areforminganincreasinglylargepercentageofglobaltradereflectingthetrendindevelopedcountriestowardsimportinggoodsmanufacturedelsewhereand
Figure 9 Top five importers of primary wood products from Cameroon 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 10 Top 5 importers of primary wood products from Brazil 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
32
thusoutsourcingtheassociatedecologicalfootprint(egWiedmannetal2013)SPWPcoversawiderangeofmanufacturedgoodsincludingwoodenfurnitureandpartsbuilderrsquosjoineryandwoodwork(egwindowsdoorframesetc)woodencratesetcBy2020SPWPareexpectedtosurpasspulpandpaperastheleadingtradedproducttotalingsome40ofallinternationallytradedforestproductsbyvalue(ACPWP2007)ThelargestcategoryofSPWPisfurniturewhichwasvaluedgloballyatUS$450billionin2012(UNECE2013)Furnitureproductioninemergingmarketeconomiesisgrowingatarateof18peryearandChinaiscurrentlytheworldrsquoslargestfurnitureproducer[ibid]
ThemajorityoffurnitureconsumedintheEUisEuropean-madeandGermanyItalytheUKPolandandFrancearetheleadingproducers(ITTO2013)HowevertheEUhasasignificantglobalimpactasthelargestinternationalbuyeroffurniturefromChina(McDermottetal2009)andamajorimporterfromVietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaandotherdevelopingcountries(ITTO2013)
FinishedproductsndashandespeciallyrelativelycomplexproductassemblagessuchasfurniturendashmayhaveverycomplexsupplychainsForexampleasinglelivingroomcouchmaycontainmultiplepartsbothvisibleandhiddensourcedandmanufacturedwithinawiderangeofcountriesAllofthesefactorsmakeitchallengingtoconsiderboththequantityandthequalityoftheenvironmentalandsocialfootprint
NeverthelessexistingknowledgeofglobalsupplychainsisadequatetobegintoassesstherisksinvolvedinimportedSPWPForexampleresearchhasrevealedthatalargeportionofthefurnituremadeinChinaincludeswoodfromimportedfromregionsfacingmajorgovernancechallengessuchaseasternRussiaandSoutheastAsiaAccordingtoaglobalstudyofwoodtradefromsixpriorityecoregions worldwide China is the largest buyer of hardwood logs from four of these regionsincludingtheAmur(intheRussianFarEast)theCongoBasincentralBorneoandtheMekongregion(includingMyanmarCambodiaandLaos)andmanyoftheselogsareprocessedtoproducefurnituresoldtotheEUandUS(McDermottetal2009)(seeFigure11)
InsumthefootprintqualityoftheEUrsquosimportedSPWPisanissueofsignificantconcernAtthesametimerecentprojectionssuggestthequantityofthatfootprintisalsolikelytogrowaswillthepercentageofthatgrowthsuppliedbyemerginghighrisksources(ACPWP2007)
Case Study ContextsAshighlightedinFigure2abovethecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomestic
Figure 11 Top export pathways of tropical raw logs Grey top tropical log trade Black Top furniture trade Source (McDermott et al 2009)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
29
TheothermajorldquohighriskrdquoregionsoforiginincludeEastandSouthEastAsiaSouthAmericaandAfricaTheseregionsarediscussedinthefollowingsectionsonldquotropicalwoodrdquoandldquosecondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)rdquo
Tropical WoodTropicalforestlossanddegradationhasbecomeanissueofmajorglobalconcern(egMcDermott2014)Timberharvestisnotthemajordirectdriverofthislosssinceharvestedareasaregenerallycapableofregrowthbutmarketsfortropicaltimbercanplayaroleinfinancingroad-buildingandotherinfrastructurethatinturnfacilitatesconversiontoagricultureorotherlanduses(egMeyfroidtetal2010GeistampLambin2002)AconsiderationoftropicaltimberimportstotheEUthereforeshedssomelightonwheretheEUcouldbeplayingeitherapositiveornegativeroleinpromotingsustainableforestryFigures6and7presenttheEUimportsoftropicalwoodintonnesandvalue
BasedonbothvolumeandvalueIndonesiaMalaysiaCameroonandGabonareallleadingsourcesoftropicalwoodproducts(HS44)fortheEUasawholeAllofthesecountriesareknowntofaceseriouschallengesingoverningforesttradealthoughestimatingtheprecisenatureandextentofthesechallengesisitselfverydifficultSurvey-basedestimatesofillegalloggingasapercentofproductionrangefrom40-61inIndonesia59-65inCameroonand14-25inMalaysia(LawsonampMcFaul2010)
IntotalprimaryprocessedtropicalwoodproductsrepresentonlyasmallportionoftheEUrsquostotalwoodtradeHowevertheimpactofthistradeonthehostcountriesdependsalsoontherelativeroletheEUplaysamonginternationalimporters(Figures8910)
TheleadingdestinationsofthetopprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromIndonesiaareJapanChinaandtheUSA(Figure8)
Figure 6 EU (28) tropical wood import weights (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014]
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
30
Figure 8 Top five importers of primary wood products from Indonesia 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 7 EU (28) tropical wood import value (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014] Includes all tropical wood products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
31
ChinaistheleadimporterofprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromCameroon(Figure9)followedbyfourdifferentEUcountriesincludingtheINTEGRALcasestudycountriesofFranceItalyandtheNetherlands
TropicalwoodfromBrazil(Figure10)issourcedfromtheBrazilianAmazonthehistoricalleaderintropicalforestlossandaregionstillexperiencingmajorproblemswithillegalloggingandforestdegradation(egMatricardietal2013)ThecasestudyFranceisaleadingbuyeroftropicalplywoodfromBrazilwhiletheNetherlandsisthefourthlargestbuyerofBraziliantropicalsawnwood
InsumFigures8910revealmajorvariationintherelativeimportanceoftheEUasadirecttradingpartnerHoweveraswillbediscussedinthenextsectionasignificantportionofthetropicalwoodimportedintonon-EUcountriesmaybereprocessedandsoldbacktotheEUasSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)
Secondary Processed Wood Products (SPWP)Secondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)areforminganincreasinglylargepercentageofglobaltradereflectingthetrendindevelopedcountriestowardsimportinggoodsmanufacturedelsewhereand
Figure 9 Top five importers of primary wood products from Cameroon 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 10 Top 5 importers of primary wood products from Brazil 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
32
thusoutsourcingtheassociatedecologicalfootprint(egWiedmannetal2013)SPWPcoversawiderangeofmanufacturedgoodsincludingwoodenfurnitureandpartsbuilderrsquosjoineryandwoodwork(egwindowsdoorframesetc)woodencratesetcBy2020SPWPareexpectedtosurpasspulpandpaperastheleadingtradedproducttotalingsome40ofallinternationallytradedforestproductsbyvalue(ACPWP2007)ThelargestcategoryofSPWPisfurniturewhichwasvaluedgloballyatUS$450billionin2012(UNECE2013)Furnitureproductioninemergingmarketeconomiesisgrowingatarateof18peryearandChinaiscurrentlytheworldrsquoslargestfurnitureproducer[ibid]
ThemajorityoffurnitureconsumedintheEUisEuropean-madeandGermanyItalytheUKPolandandFrancearetheleadingproducers(ITTO2013)HowevertheEUhasasignificantglobalimpactasthelargestinternationalbuyeroffurniturefromChina(McDermottetal2009)andamajorimporterfromVietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaandotherdevelopingcountries(ITTO2013)
FinishedproductsndashandespeciallyrelativelycomplexproductassemblagessuchasfurniturendashmayhaveverycomplexsupplychainsForexampleasinglelivingroomcouchmaycontainmultiplepartsbothvisibleandhiddensourcedandmanufacturedwithinawiderangeofcountriesAllofthesefactorsmakeitchallengingtoconsiderboththequantityandthequalityoftheenvironmentalandsocialfootprint
NeverthelessexistingknowledgeofglobalsupplychainsisadequatetobegintoassesstherisksinvolvedinimportedSPWPForexampleresearchhasrevealedthatalargeportionofthefurnituremadeinChinaincludeswoodfromimportedfromregionsfacingmajorgovernancechallengessuchaseasternRussiaandSoutheastAsiaAccordingtoaglobalstudyofwoodtradefromsixpriorityecoregions worldwide China is the largest buyer of hardwood logs from four of these regionsincludingtheAmur(intheRussianFarEast)theCongoBasincentralBorneoandtheMekongregion(includingMyanmarCambodiaandLaos)andmanyoftheselogsareprocessedtoproducefurnituresoldtotheEUandUS(McDermottetal2009)(seeFigure11)
InsumthefootprintqualityoftheEUrsquosimportedSPWPisanissueofsignificantconcernAtthesametimerecentprojectionssuggestthequantityofthatfootprintisalsolikelytogrowaswillthepercentageofthatgrowthsuppliedbyemerginghighrisksources(ACPWP2007)
Case Study ContextsAshighlightedinFigure2abovethecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomestic
Figure 11 Top export pathways of tropical raw logs Grey top tropical log trade Black Top furniture trade Source (McDermott et al 2009)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
30
Figure 8 Top five importers of primary wood products from Indonesia 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 7 EU (28) tropical wood import value (average) and origin countries for the period 2000-2012 [Source EUROSTAT 2014] Includes all tropical wood products listed under Chapter 44 ldquowood and wood productsrdquo of the Harmonized System (HS) of Commodity Classification
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
31
ChinaistheleadimporterofprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromCameroon(Figure9)followedbyfourdifferentEUcountriesincludingtheINTEGRALcasestudycountriesofFranceItalyandtheNetherlands
TropicalwoodfromBrazil(Figure10)issourcedfromtheBrazilianAmazonthehistoricalleaderintropicalforestlossandaregionstillexperiencingmajorproblemswithillegalloggingandforestdegradation(egMatricardietal2013)ThecasestudyFranceisaleadingbuyeroftropicalplywoodfromBrazilwhiletheNetherlandsisthefourthlargestbuyerofBraziliantropicalsawnwood
InsumFigures8910revealmajorvariationintherelativeimportanceoftheEUasadirecttradingpartnerHoweveraswillbediscussedinthenextsectionasignificantportionofthetropicalwoodimportedintonon-EUcountriesmaybereprocessedandsoldbacktotheEUasSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)
Secondary Processed Wood Products (SPWP)Secondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)areforminganincreasinglylargepercentageofglobaltradereflectingthetrendindevelopedcountriestowardsimportinggoodsmanufacturedelsewhereand
Figure 9 Top five importers of primary wood products from Cameroon 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 10 Top 5 importers of primary wood products from Brazil 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
32
thusoutsourcingtheassociatedecologicalfootprint(egWiedmannetal2013)SPWPcoversawiderangeofmanufacturedgoodsincludingwoodenfurnitureandpartsbuilderrsquosjoineryandwoodwork(egwindowsdoorframesetc)woodencratesetcBy2020SPWPareexpectedtosurpasspulpandpaperastheleadingtradedproducttotalingsome40ofallinternationallytradedforestproductsbyvalue(ACPWP2007)ThelargestcategoryofSPWPisfurniturewhichwasvaluedgloballyatUS$450billionin2012(UNECE2013)Furnitureproductioninemergingmarketeconomiesisgrowingatarateof18peryearandChinaiscurrentlytheworldrsquoslargestfurnitureproducer[ibid]
ThemajorityoffurnitureconsumedintheEUisEuropean-madeandGermanyItalytheUKPolandandFrancearetheleadingproducers(ITTO2013)HowevertheEUhasasignificantglobalimpactasthelargestinternationalbuyeroffurniturefromChina(McDermottetal2009)andamajorimporterfromVietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaandotherdevelopingcountries(ITTO2013)
FinishedproductsndashandespeciallyrelativelycomplexproductassemblagessuchasfurniturendashmayhaveverycomplexsupplychainsForexampleasinglelivingroomcouchmaycontainmultiplepartsbothvisibleandhiddensourcedandmanufacturedwithinawiderangeofcountriesAllofthesefactorsmakeitchallengingtoconsiderboththequantityandthequalityoftheenvironmentalandsocialfootprint
NeverthelessexistingknowledgeofglobalsupplychainsisadequatetobegintoassesstherisksinvolvedinimportedSPWPForexampleresearchhasrevealedthatalargeportionofthefurnituremadeinChinaincludeswoodfromimportedfromregionsfacingmajorgovernancechallengessuchaseasternRussiaandSoutheastAsiaAccordingtoaglobalstudyofwoodtradefromsixpriorityecoregions worldwide China is the largest buyer of hardwood logs from four of these regionsincludingtheAmur(intheRussianFarEast)theCongoBasincentralBorneoandtheMekongregion(includingMyanmarCambodiaandLaos)andmanyoftheselogsareprocessedtoproducefurnituresoldtotheEUandUS(McDermottetal2009)(seeFigure11)
InsumthefootprintqualityoftheEUrsquosimportedSPWPisanissueofsignificantconcernAtthesametimerecentprojectionssuggestthequantityofthatfootprintisalsolikelytogrowaswillthepercentageofthatgrowthsuppliedbyemerginghighrisksources(ACPWP2007)
Case Study ContextsAshighlightedinFigure2abovethecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomestic
Figure 11 Top export pathways of tropical raw logs Grey top tropical log trade Black Top furniture trade Source (McDermott et al 2009)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
31
ChinaistheleadimporterofprimarytropicalwoodproductsfromCameroon(Figure9)followedbyfourdifferentEUcountriesincludingtheINTEGRALcasestudycountriesofFranceItalyandtheNetherlands
TropicalwoodfromBrazil(Figure10)issourcedfromtheBrazilianAmazonthehistoricalleaderintropicalforestlossandaregionstillexperiencingmajorproblemswithillegalloggingandforestdegradation(egMatricardietal2013)ThecasestudyFranceisaleadingbuyeroftropicalplywoodfromBrazilwhiletheNetherlandsisthefourthlargestbuyerofBraziliantropicalsawnwood
InsumFigures8910revealmajorvariationintherelativeimportanceoftheEUasadirecttradingpartnerHoweveraswillbediscussedinthenextsectionasignificantportionofthetropicalwoodimportedintonon-EUcountriesmaybereprocessedandsoldbacktotheEUasSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)
Secondary Processed Wood Products (SPWP)Secondaryprocessedwoodproducts(SPWP)areforminganincreasinglylargepercentageofglobaltradereflectingthetrendindevelopedcountriestowardsimportinggoodsmanufacturedelsewhereand
Figure 9 Top five importers of primary wood products from Cameroon 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
Figure 10 Top 5 importers of primary wood products from Brazil 2010 Source (ITTO 2011)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
32
thusoutsourcingtheassociatedecologicalfootprint(egWiedmannetal2013)SPWPcoversawiderangeofmanufacturedgoodsincludingwoodenfurnitureandpartsbuilderrsquosjoineryandwoodwork(egwindowsdoorframesetc)woodencratesetcBy2020SPWPareexpectedtosurpasspulpandpaperastheleadingtradedproducttotalingsome40ofallinternationallytradedforestproductsbyvalue(ACPWP2007)ThelargestcategoryofSPWPisfurniturewhichwasvaluedgloballyatUS$450billionin2012(UNECE2013)Furnitureproductioninemergingmarketeconomiesisgrowingatarateof18peryearandChinaiscurrentlytheworldrsquoslargestfurnitureproducer[ibid]
ThemajorityoffurnitureconsumedintheEUisEuropean-madeandGermanyItalytheUKPolandandFrancearetheleadingproducers(ITTO2013)HowevertheEUhasasignificantglobalimpactasthelargestinternationalbuyeroffurniturefromChina(McDermottetal2009)andamajorimporterfromVietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaandotherdevelopingcountries(ITTO2013)
FinishedproductsndashandespeciallyrelativelycomplexproductassemblagessuchasfurniturendashmayhaveverycomplexsupplychainsForexampleasinglelivingroomcouchmaycontainmultiplepartsbothvisibleandhiddensourcedandmanufacturedwithinawiderangeofcountriesAllofthesefactorsmakeitchallengingtoconsiderboththequantityandthequalityoftheenvironmentalandsocialfootprint
NeverthelessexistingknowledgeofglobalsupplychainsisadequatetobegintoassesstherisksinvolvedinimportedSPWPForexampleresearchhasrevealedthatalargeportionofthefurnituremadeinChinaincludeswoodfromimportedfromregionsfacingmajorgovernancechallengessuchaseasternRussiaandSoutheastAsiaAccordingtoaglobalstudyofwoodtradefromsixpriorityecoregions worldwide China is the largest buyer of hardwood logs from four of these regionsincludingtheAmur(intheRussianFarEast)theCongoBasincentralBorneoandtheMekongregion(includingMyanmarCambodiaandLaos)andmanyoftheselogsareprocessedtoproducefurnituresoldtotheEUandUS(McDermottetal2009)(seeFigure11)
InsumthefootprintqualityoftheEUrsquosimportedSPWPisanissueofsignificantconcernAtthesametimerecentprojectionssuggestthequantityofthatfootprintisalsolikelytogrowaswillthepercentageofthatgrowthsuppliedbyemerginghighrisksources(ACPWP2007)
Case Study ContextsAshighlightedinFigure2abovethecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomestic
Figure 11 Top export pathways of tropical raw logs Grey top tropical log trade Black Top furniture trade Source (McDermott et al 2009)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
32
thusoutsourcingtheassociatedecologicalfootprint(egWiedmannetal2013)SPWPcoversawiderangeofmanufacturedgoodsincludingwoodenfurnitureandpartsbuilderrsquosjoineryandwoodwork(egwindowsdoorframesetc)woodencratesetcBy2020SPWPareexpectedtosurpasspulpandpaperastheleadingtradedproducttotalingsome40ofallinternationallytradedforestproductsbyvalue(ACPWP2007)ThelargestcategoryofSPWPisfurniturewhichwasvaluedgloballyatUS$450billionin2012(UNECE2013)Furnitureproductioninemergingmarketeconomiesisgrowingatarateof18peryearandChinaiscurrentlytheworldrsquoslargestfurnitureproducer[ibid]
ThemajorityoffurnitureconsumedintheEUisEuropean-madeandGermanyItalytheUKPolandandFrancearetheleadingproducers(ITTO2013)HowevertheEUhasasignificantglobalimpactasthelargestinternationalbuyeroffurniturefromChina(McDermottetal2009)andamajorimporterfromVietnamIndonesiaMalaysiaandotherdevelopingcountries(ITTO2013)
FinishedproductsndashandespeciallyrelativelycomplexproductassemblagessuchasfurniturendashmayhaveverycomplexsupplychainsForexampleasinglelivingroomcouchmaycontainmultiplepartsbothvisibleandhiddensourcedandmanufacturedwithinawiderangeofcountriesAllofthesefactorsmakeitchallengingtoconsiderboththequantityandthequalityoftheenvironmentalandsocialfootprint
NeverthelessexistingknowledgeofglobalsupplychainsisadequatetobegintoassesstherisksinvolvedinimportedSPWPForexampleresearchhasrevealedthatalargeportionofthefurnituremadeinChinaincludeswoodfromimportedfromregionsfacingmajorgovernancechallengessuchaseasternRussiaandSoutheastAsiaAccordingtoaglobalstudyofwoodtradefromsixpriorityecoregions worldwide China is the largest buyer of hardwood logs from four of these regionsincludingtheAmur(intheRussianFarEast)theCongoBasincentralBorneoandtheMekongregion(includingMyanmarCambodiaandLaos)andmanyoftheselogsareprocessedtoproducefurnituresoldtotheEUandUS(McDermottetal2009)(seeFigure11)
InsumthefootprintqualityoftheEUrsquosimportedSPWPisanissueofsignificantconcernAtthesametimerecentprojectionssuggestthequantityofthatfootprintisalsolikelytogrowaswillthepercentageofthatgrowthsuppliedbyemerginghighrisksources(ACPWP2007)
Case Study ContextsAshighlightedinFigure2abovethecasestudycountriesvaryconsiderablyinthebalanceoftheirpercapitaforestfootprintsandbiocapacityIngeneralthosecountrieswiththegreatestdomestic
Figure 11 Top export pathways of tropical raw logs Grey top tropical log trade Black Top furniture trade Source (McDermott et al 2009)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
33
overshootarethosewithlowpercapitaforestareamdashincludingmostnotablytheNetherlandsandIrelandThesedifferingforestendowmentsinturnhavestimulatedhighlevelsofinternalEUtradereflectingtheinterdependenceofEUforestfootprintsForexampleSwedenreportedlyexports69ofitssawnwoodproductionwithtopimportersincludingGreatBritainandGermany(Edwardsetal2013)Likewise26ofSwedishpulpand88ofSwedishpaperproductionisexportedandtheleadingmarketsareGermanyGreatBritainItalyandFrance(Ibid)Intra-EUtradewasalsoidentifiedas important to theemergingeconomiesofBulgariaLithuaniaandSlovakiaHowever in theselattercasestudycountriesEUandAsianmarketsforunprocessedwoodcombinedwithrelativelylowtechnicalcapacitiesattheforestandmilllevelsarereportedlyreducingtheirabilitytomaximizethevalueofthistradeaswellasdeveloptheirowninternalprocessingcapacities(egPaligorovetal2013)TheIrishcasestudyincontrastreportspositiveimpactsfromEUtradeInthiscaseEUdemandforwoodfromthegrowingplantationbasehashelpedcompensateforthedropindomesticdemandthatresultedfromthecrashinbuildingconstructionbroughtonbyglobalrecession(BonsuampDhubhaacutein2013)Intra-EUwoodtradeisnotonlyimpactingforesteconomiesbuttheirecologiesaswellTheEasternEuropeancasestudiesinparticularnoteproblemswithexcessivedestructiveandor illegal forestharvestpracticesdriven inpartbygrowing internationaldemand for timber(Brukasetal2013Paligorovetal2013)MeanwhileinFranceandPortugaltheinternationalcompetitivenessofeucalyptandNorthernspruceandfircombinedwithrecenthurricanedamagesandfiresarecontributingtothelossorconversionofonce-profitablemaritimepineforests(Sergentetal2013Sottomayoretal2013)Thegrowinginternationalmarketforbiofuelsisalsoseenasimpactingforestpractices inmanycasestudycountriesalthoughthere isnoclearconsensusonhowitwilldosoForexamplestakeholdersinItalyvariablyviewgrowthindemandforbiofuelsasapotentialenvironmentalthreatthatwilldriveintensifiedforestproductionorasanincentivetoldquocleanrdquotheforestthroughthinningandtheremovalofdeadwoodwhichwillhelppreventforestfires(Pettenellaetal2013)InsumtheforestrycontextsintheINTEGRALcasestudiesarenotonlyhighlydiversebutalsohighlyinterdependentThefollowingsubsectionexploreswaystoaddressthisinterdependenceintheprocessoffuture-orientedscenariobuilding
Case Study ScenariosThe followingFigure12andFigure13drawon theSoutheastVeluwe (Netherlandscase study)scenarioasanexample toexplorehowonemightexamine the implicationsofecologicalversusproduction-orientedscenariosforldquointernalrdquoandldquoexternalrdquoforestfootprintsldquoInternalfootprintrdquointhiscontextreferstotheextentoftheirlocalimpactsonforestbiocapacitywhileldquoexternalfootprintrdquoreferstothedisplacementofthisimpactelsewheretootherwatershedsregionsandorcountriesAsillustratedinFigure12theldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioinvolvessubsidizingforestprotectionstrongpublicinterestinprotectingnon-timberforestvaluesandmatchingpublicpoliciesalongwithlittledevelopmentofthetimbersectorThiswouldlikelyleadinturntodeclineintimberproductionandadecreaseintheinternalforestfootprintTheimpactofdifferentscenariosonexternalfootprintswoulddependonwhethertherewereanycorrespondingchangesinlocaldemandfortimberproductsIfdemandremainsatcurrentlevelsthenrelianceonimportswouldincreasetoaccommodatetheshortfallleadingtoanincreaseinexternalfootprintsIfhoweverlocaldemandforwoodproductsdecreasedanamountequivalenttothedropinlocalproductionthentheexternalfootprintwouldremainstableTheaboveldquoLiberalfuturerdquoscenario(Figure13)contrastswiththeldquoRomanticnaturefuturerdquoscenarioHeresubsidiesforforestprotectiondecreasewhichincreasespressureonforestowners togenerate incomefromforestlandsAt thesame timean increasinglyurbanizedpubliclosesinterestinrecreationandnatureprotectionandtheprofitabilityoftimberharvestisenhancedbylowermanagementcostsandhighertimberpricesAllofthesefactorscontributetoanincreaseintimberharvestresultinginalargerinternal(local)forestfootprintAswiththeRomanticnaturefuturescenariotheimpactthishasonexternalfootprintsdependsonchangesinconsumerdemandIfdemandisstable thenitcouldleadtoadecreasein importswhichwouldreducetheexternal
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
34
footprintIflocaldemandincreasedequallywithincreasesinproductionthanrelianceonimportswouldremainstable
TheissueofenergyimpactsisalsorelevanttothecasestudyscenariosinregardstotheirtreatmentofbiofuelproductionInfactanumberofdifferentEuropeancasestudyscenariosincludetrendsinfuelwoodandbiofuelsasamajordefiningelementBiomassproductioninthesescenariosisoften
Figure 12 Driver Scenario - Romantic nature future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
Figure 13 Driver Scenario - Liberal future (Southeast Veluwe Netherlands)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
35
associatedwithmoreintensivemanagementandshorterrotationforestryInsomescenariosanincreaseinintensivebiofuelproductionisassociatedwithldquoutilitarianrdquoorproduction-orientedfutures(egintheldquoUtilitarianfuturerdquoscenarioinSoutheastVeluweNetherlands)whileinothersbiofuelproductiscombinedwithstrictset-asidesfornatureconservationandorcarbonstorage(egintheClimatechangemitigationscenarioinSuvalkijaLithuania)AssessingthefootprinteffectsofthesedifferentbiofuelscenariosisacomplexandcontroversialendeavourwhichrequiresevaluatingtradeoffsforbiodiversityandotherforestvaluesaswellascalculatingglobalforestandcarbonfootprintsThisagainhighlightstheneedforfurtherresearch
dISCUSSION ANd CONCLUSION
As our world becomes increasingly globalized decisions about forest and land use inonepartof theworldhaveincreasinglygreater impactselsewhereTheconceptofglobalfootprintsprovidesonetoolforlocalforeststakeholderstobegintothinkabouttheimpactsoftheirlocaldecisionsacrossscalesThisincludesquantitativecalculationswhichcanbeappliedatvariousscalestocompareapparentconsumptionofforestproductstotheearthrsquosldquobiocapacityrdquotosupplythoseproductsLikewisesimilarcalculationscanbemadetoassessldquocarbon footprintsrdquo based on the amount of ldquouptake landrdquo required to supply the energyconsumedinproducingtransportingandtradingproductsAsweillustratedintheprevioussection it is then a relatively straightforward matter to link these quantitative footprintconceptstothescenarioscreatedbythecasestudystakeholdersThelastfiguresprovideagraphicillustrationofhowscenariosinvolvinganincreaseordecreasetimberinharvestcombined with various possible changes in local consumption patterns might togetheraffectbothldquointernalrdquo (local) andldquoexternalrdquo (non-local) forest footprintsTheconceptofldquofootprintrdquo however can alsobe interpretedmorebroadly to extendbeyondbiocapacityandcarbontoencompassalloftheforestvaluesidentifiedbyforestrystakeholdersForthispurposetheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquofortheidentificationofthesourcesofEUforestproducts is really important in termsofconsumptionandsustainableforestmanagementFullyldquointegratedrdquoforestplanningandscenarioprocesseswouldinvolvenotonlyidentifyingwhat values are locally important but considering how those values might be coherentlypromotedatnationalEUandglobalscales
TheanalysisoftheinternationalwoodtradehighlightshowsignificantquantitiesofwoodproductstradedandconsumedwithintheEUoriginatefromcountrieswheretherisksofillegalorunsustainable loggingarehighThus theecologicalandsocial impactsofbuyingacubicmeterofwoodfromthesesourcesietheldquoqualityrdquoofthefootprintthisgeneratesmaybequitedifferentfromacubicmeterofwoodproducedlocallyForexampleeasternRussiaisaregionwithrelativelyhighratesofillegalandorunsustainableloggingandisalsoamajorsourceofprimaryprocessedwoodfortheEULikewiseSecondaryProcessedWoodProducts(SPWP)are increasingly sourced fromChina andmuchof thewoodused toproduce theseproductsoriginates ineasternRussianandhighrisktropicalcountriesThusdecisionstoreducelocalproductionwithoutaconcurrentdecreaseinlocalconsumptioncouldcontributetoanincreaseinrelianceonhighriskimportswithanetnegativeimpactonsustainabilityWhiletheconceptofldquofootprintqualityrdquothushelpscallattentiontotheglobalsignificanceoflocalactionsthereisneedforfurtherresearchtoinformlocalstakeholdersabouttheprecisenatureoftheirexternalimpactsForexampleresearcherssuchasLindneretal (2010)areexploringmethodologiesthatintegrateawiderangeofsocialenvironmentalandeconomicvariablesandenergyusetoassesstherelativeimpactsofdifferentwoodsupplychainsOn-goingresearchisalsoneededtoinformconsumersandconsumingcountrieshowtheymighttransformtheirconsumptionpoliciesandpracticesinwaysthatsupportimprovedforestgovernanceworldwide(egLesniewskaampMcDermott 2014) A modern decision support system could surly be based on this kind of
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
36
analysis giving attention to variables related to the stakeholders or to the consumers Givenpredictionsofever-increasingglobalizationandrisingglobalconsumptiontheneedforfurtherresearchofthiskindislikelytogrowever-largerandmoreurgentovertime
ACKNOwLEdGMENT
TheresearchleadingtotheseresultshasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnionSeventhFrameworkProgramme under grant agreement no FP7-282887 (Future-oriented integrated management ofEuropeanforestlandscapes(INTEGRAL))WearethankfultoourcolleaguesKumikoKuboandDanielBarronwhoprovidedworkthatgreatlyassistedtheresearchespeciallyonearlierversionsofthemanuscriptPPKoulelisandCLMcDermottcontributedequallytothiswork
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
37
REFERENCES
ACPWP(2007)GlobalwoodandwoodproductsflowtrendsandperspectivesadvisorycommitteeonpaperandwoodproductsfoodandagricultureorganizationoftheUnitedNationsShanghaiRetrievedOctober2015fromhttpwwwfaoorgforestry127110e94fe2a7dae258fbb8bc48e5cc09b0d8pdf
BaudinAampBrooksD(1995)ProjectionsofforestproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinETTSVUNECEFAOTimberandForestDiscussionPapers(ETTSVWorkingPaperECETIMDP6)
BonsuNampDhubhaacuteinAacuteN(2013)WesternPeatlandcasestudyIrelandUniversityCollegeDublinDublin
BrukasVKavaliauskasMMozgerisGStanislovaitisA(2013)SUVALKIJAWP31CaseStudyReportLithuania(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
BuongiornoJampZhuS(2011)Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2010)DepartmentofForestandWildlifeEcologyUniversityofWisconsinMadison
BuongiornoJZhuSRaunikarRampPrestemonJP(2012)Outlookto2060forworldforestsandforestindustriesatechnicaldocumentsupportingtheForestService2010RPAassessmentGenTechRepSRS-151AshevilleNCUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestServiceSouthernResearchStation119p
BuongiornoJZhuSampZhangD(2003)The Global Forest Products Model structure estimation and applicationsSanDiegoCAAcademicPressElsevier
BuonocoreEHaumlyhaumlTPalettoAampFranzesePP(2014)AssessingenvironmentalcostsandimpactsofforestryactivitiesAmulti-methodapproachtoenvironmentalaccountingEcological Modelling27110ndash20doi101016jecolmodel201302008
CuypersDGeerkenTGorissonLLustAPetersGKarstenJhellipVanVelthuizenH(2013)TheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationComprehensiveanalysisoftheimpactofEUconsumptionondeforestationEU
EdwardsPWallinICarlssonJJonssonRSallnaumlsOBrukasV(2013)WP31CaseStudyReportndashHelgeAringnSweden(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
EUROSTAT (2014) European Union statistics 1995-2014 Retrieved March 2014 from httpeppeurostateceuropaeuportalpageportalstatisticssearch_database
EwingBMooreDGoldfingerSOurslerAReedAampWackernagelM(2010)The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010OaklandCAGlobalFootprintNetwork
FAOSTAT(2014)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)RetrievedMarch2014fromhttpfaostatfaoorgsite628defaultaspx
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2006)Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005 mdash Progress Towards Sustainable Forest ManagementRomeFAO
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)(2012)The European Forest Sector Outlook Study
ForestTrends(2013)European Trade Flows and RiskWashingtonDCForestTrends
GeistHJampLambinEF(2002)ProximateCausesandUnderlyingDrivingForcesofTropicalDeforestationBioscience52(2)143doi1016410006-3568(2002)052[0143PCAUDF]20CO2
GlobalFootprintNetwork(2012)EcologicalFootprintGlossaryRetrievedfromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorggfn_subphpcontent=glossary
GlobalFootprintNetwork (2013)NationalFootprintAccounts 2012EditionRetrieved fromhttpwwwfootprintnetworkorg
HinterseerTKoulelisPJonssonRMcDermottCLSallnaumlsOampSchroumlterWhellipampKuboK(2014)Synthesis Report on Integrated Forest Management Scenarios in Europe including the National Case Study Reports and the Report on the Role of EU Commodity ConsumptionUniversityofAppliedSciencesSalzburg
ITTO(2011)Annual Review and Assessment of the World Timber Situation 2011 International Tropical Timber OrganizationYokohamaITTO
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
38
ITTO(2013)TropicalTimberMarketReportVolume17Number21
JonssonR(2012)EconometricmodellingandprojectionsofwoodproductsdemandsupplyandtradeinEuropeGenevatimberandforestdiscussionpaper59FAO
KangasKBaudinA(2003)ModellingandProjectionsofForestProductsDemandSupplyandTradeinEuropeAstudypreparedfortheEuropeanForestSectorOutlookStudy(EFSOS)(GenevaTimberAndForestDiscussionPapers)FAO
LawsonSampMacFaullL(2010)IllegalLoggingandRelatedTradeInIndicatorsoftheGlobalResponseLondonUKChathamHouse
LesniewskaFampMcDermottCL(2014)FLEGTVPAsLayingaPathwaytoSustainabilityviaLegalityLessonsfromGhanaandIndonesiaForest Policy and Economics4816ndash23doi101016jforpol201401005
LindnerMSuominenTPalosuoTGarcia-Gonzalo JVerweijPZudinSampPaumlivinenR (2010)ToSIAmdashAtool for sustainability impactassessmentof forest-wood-chainsEcological Modelling221(18)2197ndash2205doi101016jecolmodel200908006
Matricardi E A T Skole D L Pedlowski M A amp Chomentowski W (2013) Assessment of forestdisturbancesbyselectiveloggingandforestfiresintheBrazilianAmazonusingLandsatdataInternational Journal of Remote Sensing34(4)1057ndash1086doi101080014311612012717182
MayerAKauppiPTikkaPampAngelstamP(2006)Conservationimplicationsofexportingdomesticwood harvest to neighboring countries Environmental Science amp Policy 9(3) 228ndash236 doi101016jenvsci200512002
McDermott C L (2014) REDDuced From sustainability to legality to units of carbonmdashThe search forcommoninterestsininternationalforestgovernanceEnvironmental Science amp Policy3512ndash19doi101016jenvsci201208012
McDermottCLampCashoreB(2009)Forestry Driver Mapping Project Global and US Trade ReportNewHavenGlobalInstituteofSustainableForestryYaleUniversity
McDermottCLCashoreBampKanowskiP(2010)Global Environmental Forest Policies An international comparisonLondonEarthscan
MeyfroidtPRudelTKampLambinEF(2010)ForesttransitionstradeandtheglobaldisplacementoflanduseProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America107(49)20917ndash20922doi101073pnas1014773107PMID21078977
NieYJiCampYangH(2010)TheforestecologicalfootprintdistributionofChineselogimportsForest Policy and Economics12(3)231ndash235doi101016jforpol200911003
PaligorovIGalevEIvanovIDragozovaEKovachevaS(2013)TetevenWP31CaseStudyReport(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
PettenellaDFaveroMMasieroM(2013)WP31ItalianCaseStudyReportldquoAltoMoliserdquoareandashProvinceofIserniaMoliseRegion(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SergentADeufficPBanosVHautdidierBMaindraultM(2013)Anoverviewofthefactorsinfluencingforest management in the lsquoPontenxrsquo case study France Case Study Report lsquoPontenxrsquo France (EU FP7INTEGRALD31-2)
SotirovMSchuumlllESaumlllnasOBorgesJJonssonRRiemerAampErikssonO(2014)INTEGRAL2ndPolicyBriefFutureScenariosofForestmanagementinEuropeRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SotirovMStorchSAggestamFGiurcaASelterABaychevaTampBorgesJ(2015)ForestpolicyintegrationinEuropeLessonslearntchallengesaheadandstrategiestosupportsustainableforestmanagementandmultifunctionalforestryinthefutureINTEGRALEUpolicypaperRetrievedfromhttpwwwintegral-projecteu
SottomayorMRibeiroMCarvalhoPO(2013)WP31PortugueseCaseStudyReportChamuscaAreaSouthernPortugal(EUFP7INTEGRALD31-2)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information SystemsVolume 10 bull Issue 1 bull January-March 2019
39
Panagiotis Koulelis is a researcher at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems Laboratory of Forest Management and Forest Economics (Athens Greece) His field of expertise focuses on the forest sector modeling the timber industry and trade the sustainable forest management and the climate changepolicy implications He has published several scientific papers Panagiotis Koulelis has joined several academic departments (Universities and Technological Educational Institutes-TEI) in Greece since October 2002 obtaining teaching and research experience related to his field He has also worked as a researcher (2015-2016) at the Environmental Change Institute at the School of Geography and the EnvironmentUniversity of Oxford UK His research there involved investigating and understanding the links between the forest sector trade and the ecological footprint (Funding Scheme FP7 Seventh Framework Programme-INTEGRAL)
Constance McDermott is a Senior Fellow at the Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford She has over 25 yearsrsquo experience conducting research and applied work on state and market-based approaches to the governance of forests and related supply chains and the nexus of forests with climate and agriculture Her work is typically multi-scale examining international agreements and non-state initiatives such as sustainability and legality certification and their intersection with domestic policies and locally-based resource management
UNECEFAO(2013)Forest Products Annual Market Review 2012-2013 UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UNFAO
USDA(2014)ForeignAgriculturalServicersquosGlobalAgriculturalTradeSystemGATSRetrievedMarch2014fromhttpappsfasusdagovgatsExpressQuery1aspx
WackernagelMMonfredaCSchulzNBErbK-HHaberlHampKrausmannF(2004)CalculatingnationalandglobalecologicalfootprinttimeseriesResolvingconceptualchallengesLand Use Policy21(3)271ndash278doi101016jlandusepol200310006
WackernagelMampReesWE(1996)Our Ecological Footprint Reducing Human Impact on the EarthGabriolaIslandBCCanadaNewSociety
WiedmannTSchandlHLenzenMMorancDSuhfSWestJampKanemotoK(2013)Thematerialfootprintofnations InProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaRetrievedfromwwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas1220362110
WWF(2008)Illegal wood for the European Market An analysis of the EU imports and exports of illegal wood and related productsFrankfurtamMainWWF-Germany
ZhuSTomberlinDampBuongiornoJ(1998)Globalforestproductsconsumptionproductiontradeandpricesglobalforestproductsmodelprojectionsto2010GlobalForestProductsOutlookStudy(WorkingPaperNoGFPOSWP01)FoodandAgricultureOrganizationRome
ENdNOTES
1 Thematerialfootprintofnationscalculatedbymultiplyingthefinaldemandofacountryforgoodsandserviceswithmultipliersrepresentingallupstreamglobalmaterialrequirementsassociatedwithoneunit(dollar)ofproduct
2 TheuptakelandtoaccommodatethecarbonFootprintistheonlylandusetypeincludedintheEcologicalFootprintthatisexclusivelydedicatedtotrackingawasteproductcarbondioxiderdquo(Buonocoreetal2014)
3 This project has received funding from the European Unionrsquos Seventh Programme for researchtechnologicaldevelopmentanddemonstrationundergrandagreementNo282887(Hinterseeretal2014)
4 Bulgaria (Teteven and Yundola) France (Pontenx) Germany (Munich South and Upper Palatinate)Lithuania(SuvalkijaandZemaitija)Portugal(ChamuscaleiriaandValedeSouza)Slovakia(Kysuceand Podpolanie) Sweden (Helge a and Vihelmina)) Italia (Asiago Etna Molise) The Netherlands(South-EastVeluwe)andIreland(NewmarketandWesternPeatland)
5 EUEFTAcountriesreferto15EuropeanUnionmembercountriesandIcelandNorwayandSwitzerland(KangasampBaudin2003)
top related