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Indicators for Monitoring and Evaluation of
Adaptation and Allocation of Adaptation Financing
Shardul Agrawala Meeting of the OECD Task Team on Climate Change
and Development Co-operation
Bern, June 20-21, 2011
1. Policy Context
Significant ramp up in international funding for
adaptation (relative to a few years ago) .. Adaptation Fund, PPCR, fast track and long-term finance.
Significant increases in investment in adaptation programmes and implementation in domestic OECD contexts as well
Necessitates the broadening of the focus of adaptation analysis beyond identification of options, costing and financing, to include issues related allocation of financing, implementation, and results monitoring and evaluation.
2. The Need for indicators
In this context, indicators – in principle - offer the
advantages of transparency, replicability, comparability (both over space and time)
Could be used as part of the criteria for allocation of adaptation financing across (and potentially within) countries, to track progress and perform mid-course corrections in ongoing activities, for fiduciary accountability, and for quantification of outcomes.
At the same time, adaptation does not lend itself to easily definable metric as reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is for the case of mitigation.
3. Vulnerability Indicators
“Vulnerability has two sides: an external side of risks, shocks and
stress … and an internal side which is defenselessness, meaning a lack of means to cope with damaging loss” (Chambers 1989)
Vulnerability = fn (impacts, determinants of exposure,
capacity to adapt) If vulnerability could be unambiguously measured, and if relevant data were available, then financing could be allocated on basis of vulnerability, and progress measured on the basis of reduction in vulnerability over time.
Typical Locus of Vulnerability Research
Ethnographic
Research
GIS based
Indices
3.1 Some issues with indicators for vulnerability
to climate change • Multitude of climate related impacts: temperature
(means/extremes), precipitation (means/extremes), sea-level rise and storm surges etc.
• Certainty of impacts varies over space and time • Number of factors conditioning exposure to specific impacts
(e.g. exposed population/assets below a certain elevation in the case of sea level rise)
• Very high dimensionality of number of variables that might condition the capacity of a system to adapt. Many of these variables are also highly correlated.
• Data availability, frequency of updates, scale, aggregation – all pose significant challenges.
4. Other Indicator types and some issues
Indicators for Enabling Activities - tools & training,
institutions, policy environment - More relevant for M&E than allocation questions - Question of proper contextualisation and link to downstream outcomes Indicators for “doability” -- quality of existing
institutions and governance, education and training base
- More relevant for allocation questions - “Doability” might not coincide with “need” or “risk”
5 . Workshop Objectives
Overarching objective – to review current thinking
and practice in the use of indicators for adaptation m&e and as a potential guide for financing allocation
Focus on “good enough”, operationalisable approaches and their limits
How to address questions of measurement and data
collection, dimensionality & aggregation, attribution of outcomes, counterfactuals, scale, trade-offs ....
Overview (Nick Brooks) Experience in the use of indicators to evaluate adaptation
relevant projects in development co-operation (Nicolina Lamhauge, OECD)
Discussion – Sara Trab Nielsen (GEF Evaluation Team)
Indicators for monitoring progress on adaptation/climate resilience (Sam Fankhauser for UK Adaptation Sub-Committee)
Discussion + View from Switzerland (Roland Hohmann, Federal Office for the Environment, Switzerland)
Discussion + recent work on indicators for DFID (Ian Tellam, ETC Foundation)
Overview of Presentations
Indicators for Adaptation Financing – Sam Fankhauser (LSE)
Metrics for Adaptation – Axel Michaelowa (University of Zurich)
Discussion – Dima Shocair Reda (Adaptation Fund Board
Secretariat / GEF Secretariat – SCCF)
Discussion – Francois Gemenne (Institute du développement durable et des relations internationales, Paris)
Roundtable Discussion and Wrap-up
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