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Indicators of Post-Secondary
…and Beyond… Success
John Poggio and Susan Gillmor
School of Education
University of Kansas
January 30, 2014
Poggio & Gillmor, Kansas State Legislative Presentation 2
While ability has been shown to have a positive, direct
relationship with school performance, ability has low,
that is, poor (and overrated and over assumed!)
predictive power for indicators of life success.
The pioneers of intelligence testing cautioned that
ability cannot explain much of the important
particulars associated with success in school and
beyond:
“…to succeed in his studies, one must have qualities which
depend on attention, will, and character; for example a certain
docility, a regularity of habits, and especially continuity of effort.
A child, even if intelligent, will learn little in class if he never
listens, if he spends his time in playing …, in giggling, in being
truant” (Binet, 1916, p.254).
Later, Wechsler, who is largely responsible for
popularizing the movement in intelligence testing,
cautioned that ability measures must be used in
conjunction with non-cognitive indicators to properly
and thoroughly predict of success:
“When our scales measure the non-intellective as well as the
intellectual factors in intelligence, they will more nearly
measure what in actual life corresponds to intelligent behavior.
Under these circumstances they… should do a much better job
in selecting those destined to succeed in life” (Wechsler, 1943,
p. 103).
3 Poggio & Gillmor, Kansas State Legislative Presentation
What’s it mean? To illustrate:
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+
C
O
L
L
E
G
E
G
P
A
_
- HS TEST SCORES +
A picture…A thousand words…A summary
On the chart each marker is an actual person
Looking to the left and right are Lower (-) and
Higher (+) high school scores, respectively
Moving up and down are Lower (-) and Higher
(+) college GPA scores, respectively
The swarm (or Plot) of points demonstrates the
maximum relationship (i.e., as good as it gets!)
between HS test scores (e.g., ACT scores)
and college GPA (i.e., r = .50)
What we find is that accepting individuals
based largely on high (+) HS test performance
or GPA denies many who would be successful
in postsecondary schooling…
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Grit – Defined as perseverance (i.e., determination,
resolute, doggedness, tenacity, dedication, drive,
persistence, stubbornness, and on and on…) and
passion for long-term goals (Duckworth, 2013).
“Grit, passion and perseverance for very long term goals. Grit is
having stamina. Grit is sticking with your future, day-in day-
out, not just for the week, not just for the month, but for years.
And working really hard to make that future a reality. Grit is
living life like it’s a marathon, not a sprint” (Duckworth, 2013).
Grit has been documented to explain and account for
school and life success above and beyond what can
be explained by intelligence alone. Study after study
find that school success not only requires a modicum
of ability, but also the sustained and focused
application of that ability over time – Grit!
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We currently have a serious grit issue in our institutions
of higher education. Nationally, only 55% of the
students who go to college leave with a degree. By
comparison, among our peer industrial nations, the
United States ranks ninth in post-secondary enrollment,
but last in college graduation rates.
This very low, if not appalling, “retention to graduation”
rate is not at all surprising when admissions decisions
are largely, if not exclusively in some situations, based
on cognitive indicators as tests scores and high school
GPA. College admission tests, other traditional academic
indicators as GPA plus state assessment scores, only
explain 10-30% of the variance in first-year college GPA
(Linn, 1990). The Education literature has identified a
group of variables that can more accurately and fully
predict college retention and success.
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The Other KEY Predictors of College GPA
Grit/Persistence –ability to stick with challenging tasks to
achieve long-term goals
Willingness to study –students’ commitment to individual
learning outside the classroom
Interest in school
Time spent on outside school/academic related activities
–i.e. leadership, community service, commitment
Organization skills –ability to manage the many and
diverse demands of college life in a structured way
Self-worth and Self-efficacy –the feeling of ones own
deservedness and ability
Goal setting
Expectancy for success
Academic self-confidence
Achievement motivation –the student’s internal desire to
do well in her/his academic pursuits/interests 8
Poggio & Gillmor, Kansas State Legislative Presentation
Adaptability –ability to learn and change in order to thrive
in the college environment.
Stress Management – ability to self-regulate and cope with
the pressures of college and life
Intrapersonal/interpersonal skills –ability to maintain
positive relationships with self and others in the college
environment
Academic self-confidence –sureness in one’s own academic
capability
Academic goal setting –ability to create and track
achievable objectives for oneself
Institutional commitment –the level of satisfaction and
belongingness students feel while at the college
Social support and involvement –feeling of support from
peers when participating in activities in- and outside the
academic setting
9
Predictors of Retention and Success
Poggio & Gillmor, Kansas State Legislative Presentation
Existing Measures
Some trait measures presented on the previous slides
have been evaluated in the literature using the tools
listed below. Due to the high-stakes associated with
college admissions, more advanced tools still need to
be developed:
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Instrument
Study Management and Academic Results Tests (SMART)
Test of Reaction and Adaptation to College (TRAC)
Non-cognitive Questionnaire (Tracey & Sedlacek, 1984)
Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (Pintrich, 1989)
Emotional Quotient Inventory (EQ-i:Short; Bar-On, 2002)
Poggio & Gillmor, Kansas State Legislative Presentation
How much more/improved can
postsecondary success be predicted?
• Duckworth (2007) finds that “Grit” accounts for an average
of 4% of the variance in college success outcomes including
educational test scores and GPA.
• A measure of college students’ ability to adapt to college life
called the Test of Reaction and Adaptation to College
(TRAC) has been found to account for 21% of the variance
in college GPA and is effective for identifying students “at-
risk” (Falardeau, Larose, & Roy, 1989).
• Naumann, Bandalos & Gutkin (2003) find that expectancy
for success among college students accounts for
approximately 34% of the variance in college GPA
compared to 16% explained by ACT scores.
• Ting (1998) finds improvement as a result of the opportunity
for community service and successful leadership experience
which explains an additional 30% of the variance in GPA
for college students.
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When we make college admission decisions based
only on cognitive indicators of ability and
achievement, who are we excluding?
The Dean of the University of Kansas in the 1950’s,
George Baxter Smith, conducted a study of KU
graduates who would not have had the opportunity to
attend and complete KU programs had the
university screened them out based on their
entrance exam scores.
12 Poggio & Gillmor, Kansas State Legislative Presentation
“208 graduates of the Class of 1955 at the University of
Kansas would not have been admitted as freshmen if the
“cutting score” of the fiftieth percentile had been in
operation. The loss to the state of Kansas and nation
would have been forty teachers, twenty-two engineers,
five journalists, seven lawyers, seven doctors, seven
pharmacists, and ninety-six graduates from the College of
Liberal Arts and Sciences and the School of Business
who majored in areas where the supply of trained
manpower is in equally short supply” (Smith, 1956, p.28).
The point being, selection based primarily on
cognitive indicators excludes Kansans who have the
potential to not only succeed in college but transition
well into society and become contributing members
to our society and of our economy.
13 Poggio & Gillmor, Kansas State Legislative Presentation
To improve our graduation rates and also the
strength of our workforce, we need to be resolute to
inviting those who are likely to succeed into our
post-secondary programs. As we have seen, it is not
those with the highest test scores or GPAs, but those
also with the grit, passion and the motivation to
apply learned skills to achieve their academic and
career goals.
Not all elected officials in this room were “straight
A” students…. (and I can assure you, neither was
I!). We each have a personal story … Thank
goodness someone was caring, attentive, supportive
and listening. And, that as individuals we were
persistent, determined and cared for what we do…
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So, what can we do?
The non-cognitive, i.e., non-academic, indicators of
success are real, reliable, dependable, and trustworthy.
We need to be monitoring and studying these factors,
and evaluating how we can ensure they are considered
in postsecondary admissions and systematically
throughout the postsecondary matriculation process.
Next steps:
1.We need to survey and confirm with employers to
identify the essential and key traits and behaviors that
make graduates desirable in the job market.
2.Evaluate ways and which non-cognitive traits should
be included and purposively streamed lined (e.g., those
previously identified) in the college admissions
process.
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Other ideas to explore may include more emphasis
on the personal statement, extracurricular resume,
and recommendations from outside persons for the
applicant speaking to the factors mentioned earlier.
Active, scholarly consideration must also be given to
the idea of developing a Kansas non-cognitive
measure that has strong predictive validity for
college retention and post-graduate employment.
This measure would likely include questions related
to ability, achievement, grit and the affective domain.
16 Poggio & Gillmor, Kansas State Legislative Presentation
Final Thoughts
Not only must we use what we know about the value and
importance of “grit” in post-secondary admissions, but we
must teach …in fact, nurture… it! There is currently a
woefully inadequate presence of scholarly work not only on
how to measure persistence, but how to inform and guide our
students to be more gritty!
The final point of our agenda is to stress to you that knowing
about these non-cognitive indicators of success is not enough:
we need to know it, see it, and study and evaluate the best
methods of transmitting these habits of the mind and intellect
which then will help to breed success for our children, youth
and adults young and old. Policy makers and institutions of
higher education must recognize and value these traits, and we
need to find the best way to explicitly include them in our K-
12, college and post grad curricula and experiences.
Poggio & Gillmor, Kansas State Legislative Presentation
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