indices for heat health warning systems - cpaess...2015/07/29  · jan 84 mrz 84 mai 84 jul 84 sep...

Indices for Heat Health Warning Systems – General Considerations –

Christina Koppe – Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)

2Quelle: Fotalia

Single & multi-parameter indices

Simplifiedbiometeoro-logical indices

Holistic (air mass based) approaches

Heat budget approaches

Considerationof adaptation

Chicago Workshop 2015

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

3

Picture Source: Fotalia

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

• Forecast skill

• Health relevance

reliable easy to handle effective

• No complicated modelling

• Easy to implement

• Low requirements for input data

• universal

• Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts

• communication

• sufficient lead time

Single & multi-parameter indices

Chicago Workshop 2015

Indices for Heat Health Warnings

4

Single & multi-parameter indices

� Single: Tmax, Tmean

� Multi: simple combination of parametersExample single-parameter: Latvia Tmax

Level 1 (potentially dangerous) : max air temperature between 27°C and 32°C for 2 days or more

Warning-threshold has to be fitted to mortality data

Level 2 (dangerous): max. air temperature above 32°C

Chicago Workshop 2015 5

Single & multi-parameter indices

� Single: Tmax, Tmean

� Multi: simple combination of parametersExample multi-parameter: France 3 day average of 99,5th percentile Tmax (31-36°C) and Tmin (18-24°C)

Level 1: seasonal vigilance (1 June - 31 August)

Level 3: warning and action (thresholds are reached for 3 days or more)

Level 4: maximal mobilization (very long and intensive)

Level 2: short heat wave (1 or 2 days)

Indices for Heat Health Warnings

Chicago Workshop 2015

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

6

Picture Source: Fotalia

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

• Forecast skill

• Health relevance

reliable easy to handle effective

• No complicated modelling

• Easy to implement

• Low requirements for input data

• universal

• Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts

• communication

• sufficient lead time

Single & multi-parameter indices

Chicago Workshop 2015

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

7

Picture Source: Fotalia

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

• Forecast skill

• Health relevance

reliable easy to handle effective

• No complicated modelling

• Easy to implement

• Low requirements for input data

• universal

• Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts

• communication

• sufficient lead time

Simplifiedbiometeoro-logical indices

Chicago Workshop 2015

Indices for Heat Health Warnings

8

Simplifiedbiometeoro-logical indices

e.g. Heat Index, Humidex, wet-bulb globe temperature, apparent temperature

Example Switzerland : Heat Index

Chicago Workshop 2015 9

Simplifiedbiometeoro-logical indices

e.g. Heat Index, Humidex, wet-bulb globe temperature, apparent temperature

Example Switzerland : Heat Index

Level 1 (considerable danger): HI > 90 for 3 consecutive days

Level 2 (great danger): HI > 93 for 5 consecutive days

Indices for Heat Health Warnings

Chicago Workshop 2015

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

10

Picture Source: Fotalia

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

• Forecast skill

• Health relevance

reliable easy to handle effective

• No complicated modelling

• Easy to implement

• Low requirements for input data

• universal

• Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts

• communication

• sufficient lead time

Simplifiedbiometeoro-logical indices

Chicago Workshop 2015

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

11

Picture Source: Fotalia

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

• Forecast skill

• Health relevance

reliable easy to handle effective

• No complicated modelling

• Easy to implement

• Low requirements for input data

• universal

• Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts

• communication

• sufficient lead time

Holistic (air mass based) approaches

Chicago Workshop 2015

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

12

Picture Source: Fotalia

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

• Forecast skill

• Health relevance

reliable easy to handle effective

• No complicated modelling

• Easy to implement

• Low requirements for input data

• universal

• Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts

• communication

• sufficient lead timeHeat budget approaches

Chicago Workshop 2015

Indices for Heat Health Warnings

13

Heat budget approaches

e.g. Perceived Temperature PT (SET*, PET, UTCI)

Example Germany:

PT + adaptation approach (HeRATE) + OT

absolute part relative part

inclusion of absolute limits due to the constrain of keeping the core

temperature constant

short term adaptation (acclimatisation + behavioural adaptation)

extreme heat load4≥ 38

strong heat load332 to 38

moderate heat load226 to 32

slight heat load120 to 26

thermal comfort00 to 20

slight cold stress-1-13 to 0

moderate cold stress-2-26 to -13

strong cold stress-3-39 to -26

extreme cold stress-4≤ -39

Thermal load categoryPT (°C)

extreme heat load4≥ 38

strong heat load332 to 38

moderate heat load226 to 32

slight heat load120 to 26

thermal comfort00 to 20

slight cold stress-1-13 to 0

moderate cold stress-2-26 to -13

strong cold stress-3-39 to -26

extreme cold stress-4≤ -39

Thermal load categoryPT (°C)

extreme heat load4≥ 38

strong heat load332 to 38

moderate heat load226 to 32

slight heat load120 to 26

thermal comfort00 to 20

slight cold stress-1-13 to 0

moderate cold stress-2-26 to -13

strong cold stress-3-39 to -26

extreme cold stress-4≤ -39

Thermal load categoryPT (°C)

extreme heat load4≥ 38

strong heat load332 to 38

moderate heat load226 to 32

slight heat load120 to 26

thermal comfort00 to 20

slight cold stress-1-13 to 0

moderate cold stress-2-26 to -13

strong cold stress-3-39 to -26

extreme cold stress-4≤ -39

Thermal load categoryPT (°C)

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Jan 84 Mrz 84 Mai 84 Jul 84 Sep 84 Nov 84 Jan 85Date

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ceiv

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PT 12

weightedPT12

2/3 1/3

Index: Perceived Temperature (PT)

Complete heat budget model of human bodyStandardizations: • Standard Person (Klima-

Michel)• Standard Environment

Chicago Workshop 2015 14

Heat budget approaches

Indices for Heat Health Warnings

e.g. Perceived Temperature PT (SET*, PET, UTCI)

Example Germany:

PT + adaptation approach (HeRATE) + OT

Operative Temperature OT calculated by building simulation modelStandardizations: • Building type• User behaviour

Level 1: variable threshold for strong heat load is exceeded for 2 consecutive days and indoor mean operative temperature during nighttime is higher than ~ 24°C

Level 2 : threshold for extreme heat load is exceeded (PT [12 UTC] >38°C)

Chicago Workshop 2015

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

15

Picture Source: Fotalia

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

• Forecast skill

• Health relevance

reliable easy to handle effective

• No complicated modelling

• Easy to implement

• Low requirements for input data

• universal

• Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts

• communication

• sufficient lead time

Heat budget approaches

HHW-IndicesHeat budget approaches

� e.g. Perceived Temperature PT (SET*, PET, UTCI)

Example Germany : PT + adaptation approach (HeRATE)

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Disadvantages

� Relatively complex (2 models: indoor and PT)

� Difficult to communicate� Skill on climate time scales

problematic (radiation, humidity and wind are input parameters)

Level 1: variable threshold for strong heat load is exceeded for 2 consecutive days and indoor mean operative temperature during nighttime is higher than 24°C

Level 2 : threshold for extreme heat load is exceeded (PT [12 UTC] >38°C)

Advantages

� Physiologically relevant� no fitting to local climate needed

(exception extreme climatic conditions)

� Adaptation is included

Chicago Workshop 2015

1986-1998

Chicago Workshop 2015

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

17

Picture Source: Fotalia

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

• Forecast skill

• Health relevance

reliable easy to handle effective

• No complicated modelling

• Easy to implement

• Low requirements for input data

• universal

• Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts

• communication

• sufficient lead timeHeat budget approaches

Chicago Workshop 2015

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

18

Picture Source: Fotalia

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

• Forecast skill

• Health relevance

reliable easy to handle effective

• No complicated modelling

• Easy to implement

• Low requirements for input data

• universal

• Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts

• communication

• sufficient lead time

Consider-ation of adaptation

Chicago Workshop 2015

Indices for Heat Health Warnings

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Consider-ation of adaptation

e.g. HeRATE, Excess Heat Index acclimatisation (EHIaccl)

Example Germany / EuroHEAT : T12 UTC + HeRATE

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0 10 20 30 40 50

weighted mean temperature of the last 30 days

wea

ther

thre

shol

d

Information about probability that threshold for heat is reached or exceeded (lead time 10 days)

Chicago Workshop 2015

Indices for Heat Health Warnings

20

e.g. HeRATE, Excess Heat Index acclimatisation (EHIaccl)

Example Germany / EuroHEAT : T12 UTC + HeRATE

Information about probability that threshold for heat is reached or exceeded (lead time 10 days)

Consider-ation of adaptation

Chicago Workshop 2015

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

21

Picture Source: Fotalia

Perfect Heat Health Warning System

• Forecast skill

• Health relevance

reliable easy to handle effective

• No complicated modelling

• Easy to implement

• Low requirements for input data

• universal

• Trigger interventions to prevent heat related health impacts

• communication

• sufficient lead time

Consider-ation of adaptation

Summary and Conclusions

• There are many indices / methods used for HHWS

• Perfect index / method should:

� directly linked to health impacts� include adaptation / acclimatization� model individual thermal stress level

� be universally applicable and easy to handle

� good forecast / prediction skill on all time scales

• All indices have the problem that they try to assess the thermal load on populations basis

• Warning method should be tailored to local requirements (health interventions) and data availability (forecasts, historical data, health data)

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There is no best method for triggering heat warning s

Chicago Workshop 2015

Quelle: Fotalia

Future

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There is no best method for triggering heat warning s

Chicago Workshop 2015

Quelle: Fotalia

Heatwarnings

Heatwarnings

Keep it simpleKeep it simple IndividualizationIndividualization

PBPV – 10/2013 24

Thank You